What's Your Prediction for Athanasiou's Future?

NickH8

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Jul 3, 2015
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35 points is something we might be pretty hard pressed to pull from Helm or Gator. Helm's never done it, and Gator rode an insane November to it this year. I don't necessarily disagree with the concept of taking the gritty, two way as long as they actually produce that, but I'm not sure we have those guys. At least not with Gator and Helm.
Helm got close enough and do Abby's points in November not count? Third line production may not be consistent but when Abby and Helm are cold offensively they're still playing a good defensive game, that's the value in them.
 
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Winger98

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Helm got close enough and do Abby's points in November not count? Third line production may not be consistent but when Abby and Helm are cold offensively they're still playing a good defensive game, that's the value in them.

Close only counts in horseshoes, Nick. And while November points count, it also stands out as an anomaly on Gator's season. Hence, why I wouldn't count on him to put up 35 points again. Keep letting the standards for offensive production slip on these gritty two way guys and instead of replacing the 45 point guy with a couple of 35 pointers who bring other stuff to the game, we're replacing him with Luke Glendening.

No one is questioning the other parts of Gator and Helm's games. But if we're going to look at leaning on guys who produce a bit less, they have to be able to be relied on to at least consistently produce that. Two things I'm sorta surprised haven't been brought up is that Athanasiou hasn't held up his end of the argument, either, coming no where close to 45 points. And while Gator was productive two of the past three years, he's also been a -47 over those three years. Helm has been just a -5.
 

Invictus12

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Close only counts in horseshoes, Nick. And while November points count, it also stands out as an anomaly on Gator's season. Hence, why I wouldn't count on him to put up 35 points again. Keep letting the standards for offensive production slip on these gritty two way guys and instead of replacing the 45 point guy with a couple of 35 pointers who bring other stuff to the game, we're replacing him with Luke Glendening.

No one is questioning the other parts of Gator and Helm's games. But if we're going to look at leaning on guys who produce a bit less, they have to be able to be relied on to at least consistently produce that. Two things I'm sorta surprised haven't been brought up is that Athanasiou hasn't held up his end of the argument, either, coming no where close to 45 points. And while Gator was productive two of the past three years, he's also been a -47 over those three years. Helm has been just a -5.

Except we don't rely on them to score goals. They're not there for that and we certainly don't rely on them for that. Even when they are on scoring lines, their roles are of a puck retriever 'piano puller' etc.. In Abby's case, sometimes a net front presence, probably because he's harder to move than most guys and is more 'in your face' kind of guy. The players we do rely to score for us aren't scoring all that much. Athanasiou is one of those guys mind you.

As far as +/- go... Though it's kind of a stat that counts up your personal presence on the ice in goals for and against, it's hardly an individual stat and might just tell a story of who your linemates were or how effective were the lines that you were in. In 15-16 season, Larkin was +11 while Z was -15. The next season Larkin was -28 while Z was +15... There isn't anything reliable or even remotely indicative about a players +/- stat.
 

NickH8

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Close only counts in horseshoes, Nick. And while November points count, it also stands out as an anomaly on Gator's season. Hence, why I wouldn't count on him to put up 35 points again. Keep letting the standards for offensive production slip on these gritty two way guys and instead of replacing the 45 point guy with a couple of 35 pointers who bring other stuff to the game, we're replacing him with Luke Glendening.

No one is questioning the other parts of Gator and Helm's games. But if we're going to look at leaning on guys who produce a bit less, they have to be able to be relied on to at least consistently produce that. Two things I'm sorta surprised haven't been brought up is that Athanasiou hasn't held up his end of the argument, either, coming no where close to 45 points. And while Gator was productive two of the past three years, he's also been a -47 over those three years. Helm has been just a -5.
I don't think it's luck that causes Abdelkader to produce in bunches, I think it's the fact that he produces when he plays with Z or Larkin. When he's put on their line he goes on a streak, when he's in the bottom 6 he doesn't produce. I don't see inconsistency there, I just see a support player who's production is a product of his line mates (and you need a couple of those players, our problem is we're paying Abby @2mil too much). Helm was the same way. If one of those guys plays in the top 6 again they will probably replicate their season. If they're put in the bottom 6 they won't. I don't see them as the problem with this team, they are what they are. The problem (at least up front) is that we have no game-breaking forwards.
 

Pavels Dog

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If you're rebuilding, going through the draft, I seriously don't see how you need to be very flexible on cap when rebuild pretty much implies nothing but entry-level contracts.
No.. don't you see, we need to have cap space so we can take on cap dumps... for example, instead of trading a depth veteran for a 3rd round pick it would be much better to have cap space, take on a cap dump and get a 3rd round pick as payment... it's better, because of reasons... reasons no one has yet to be able to explain, but it has to be better, somehow. Also, Teuvo Terevainen. If we have cap space we can get him, or so I've heard. Flexibility. Have you heard that word? It's crucial. Gotta be flexible.. so people can play pretend GM on capgeek. Or so we can have the "flexibility" of being forced to insert young players that aren't ready, the true mark of a team that has options.
 

Invictus12

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No.. don't you see, we need to have cap space so we can take on cap dumps... for example, instead of trading a depth veteran for a 3rd round pick it would be much better to have cap space, take on a cap dump and get a 3rd round pick as payment... it's better, because of reasons... reasons no one has yet to be able to explain, but it has to be better, somehow. Also, Teuvo Terevainen. If we have cap space we can get him, or so I've heard. Flexibility. Have you heard that word? It's crucial. Gotta be flexible.. so people can play pretend GM on capgeek. Or so we can have the "flexibility" of being forced to insert young players that aren't ready, the true mark of a team that has options.

We might as well just switch the Griffins roster with the Red Wings.
 

Frk It

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Jul 27, 2010
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No.. don't you see, we need to have cap space so we can take on cap dumps... for example, instead of trading a depth veteran for a 3rd round pick it would be much better to have cap space, take on a cap dump and get a 3rd round pick as payment... it's better, because of reasons... reasons no one has yet to be able to explain, but it has to be better, somehow. Also, Teuvo Terevainen. If we have cap space we can get him, or so I've heard. Flexibility. Have you heard that word? It's crucial. Gotta be flexible.. so people can play pretend GM on capgeek. Or so we can have the "flexibility" of being forced to insert young players that aren't ready, the true mark of a team that has options.

Spending is only better than not spending when you spend smartly. We haven’t been doing a lot of that lately.

The shrewd Vanek sign and trade has been the exception, not the rule.
 
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Invictus12

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We mostly resigned players that are pretty much trusted. Weiss didn't work out, sure but Richards, Alfredsson, Modano, Bertuzzi were all signed for short term. We did sign Nielsen who certainly isn't Stamkos but I don't see a huge problem as where we needed a center. He is one and can be moved up and down.
Its one thing to acknowledge that this roster isn't ideal but the way folks are talking here, we'd be literaly icing the current Griffins on the ice...
The main go to slogan in bashing every move is, 'it not a proper rebuild' while yet to actually define what is an actual proper rebuild and show examples.
 

Mlotek

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Weiss had 25 points in 52 games playing under 11:30 a game.

My my what an epic failure, only 23.6 minutes per point. Granted those numbers were inflated with PP time.

Let's keep in mind that is more effective production than anyone on the 2017-18 roster. Larkin was closest with 25.825 with Zetterberg, Mantha, Bertuzzi, and Frk in the 28 minute range.
 
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Mlotek

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Except the three other players took major steps forward this year. The only one that took their bigger role and fumbled was AA. After making a huge show of his contract and after having a history of trying to play his own way and doing what he wants. And his end of season his comments to the press showed he had no ability to take responsibility for his poor production.

I have no idea how people can call Blashill out this season. This team was going to finish at the bottom no matter how you cut it. But, under him Larkin had 63 points, Mantha had 24 goals, and little Bert was 0.5 ppg. And to say the players don't trust or like him is just baseless. Unless you have proof that the players don't like him quit trying to shift blame away from AA and onto others.

Well here is the thing, AA wasn't getting a far market value for himself. I don't blame him for sitting out the start of the season. Although he waited so long it bit him in the ass. Perhaps Red Wings should pay him like the other 30 points guys on the team Helm, Abbie, Nielsen, Tatar in the 4-5 million range. (I am making an obvious joke here, incase it is not clear)

Mantha was scoring at same pace as the previous season. The improvement is where? Obviously putting that extra ice-time to good use.

Increase any players ice-time to 20 minutes a game (Larkin) and their offensive numbers will improve. He did have a great showing this year.

I will give you a secret to Red Wing games. If Detroit is losing after 2 periods, just stop watching.

Detroit were 1-32-5 when trailing after 2 periods.
 

Shaman464

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Well here is the thing, AA wasn't getting a far market value for himself. I don't blame him for sitting out the start of the season. Although he waited so long it bit him in the ass. Perhaps Red Wings should pay him like the other 30 points guys on the team Helm, Abbie, Nielsen, Tatar in the 4-5 million range. (I am making an obvious joke here, incase it is not clear)

Mantha was scoring at same pace as the previous season. The improvement is where? Obviously putting that extra ice-time to good use.

Increase any players ice-time to 20 minutes a game (Larkin) and their offensive numbers will improve. He did have a great showing this year.

I will give you a secret to Red Wing games. If Detroit is losing after 2 periods, just stop watching.

Detroit were 1-32-5 when trailing after 2 periods.

AA was is still under team control. And for his skill set he would have to score 60 points to deserve 5 million a season even as a UFA. So its not an apt comparison.

As for Mantha, the per 60 stats usually deflate with more time, the fact that they stayed nearly the same with more ice time is actually an improvement. AA on the other hand took a step backwards with more time. Just increasing their ice time doesn't ensure they will do better, and its doubly bad when a player is one dimensional at his best and a waste of a roster space most of the time.
 

Mlotek

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AA was is still under team control. And for his skill set he would have to score 60 points to deserve 5 million a season even as a UFA. So its not an apt comparison.

As for Mantha, the per 60 stats usually deflate with more time, the fact that they stayed nearly the same with more ice time is actually an improvement. AA on the other hand took a step backwards with more time. Just increasing their ice time doesn't ensure they will do better, and its doubly bad when a player is one dimensional at his best and a waste of a roster space most of the time.
Indeed, AA was still in the exploitative ELC contract without arbitration rights. Sure AA is 1-dimensional but so are guys like Vanek. I'd prefer to watch AA play over Helm and Abdul-qadeer.

Think you misunderstood me about Mantha.

Their points per game is identical over past 2 seasons.

In general, the #1 factor contributing to number of points scored is ice-time. Give almost any NHL forward 20 minutes a game and they will get around 50 points per season at a minimum. Hence, the per 60 stat generally increases with ice-time because they get more opportunities to score. Unless they play significant PK minutes, than that number will drop. Maybe low-skill guys like Ott/Abdelkader willl stop at 40 but their season numbers increased.
 

Hen Kolland

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Hence, the per 60 stat generally increases with ice-time because they get more opportunities to score.

Look at his deployment rate this year compared to his first. Year 1 he started almost 65% of his shifts in the offensive zone and played 9 minutes per night compared to this year starting 53% in the oZone and playing over 15 minutes per night. That isn't a coincidence; he was completely sheltered from playing defense year one and with the increased ice time, he was asked to also increase his responsibility as a complete player and his overall scoring held pretty constant and his scoring rate declined. More time doesn't mean scoring rates go up at all when all you were asked to do before was go out and feast on scoring opportunities. You will likely never see Athanasiou produce like he did to start his career if he is going to get the ice time he wants; players don't get 18 minutes of pure offense every night, and that's what he would need to maintain the breakneck rates from year one and why his scoring rates have declined with added defensive responsibility.

Now there's nothing wrong with the rate he scored at in 15 minutes this year, and it would go up with some consistent PP looks, but people are more concerned that he is such a liability defensively that he doesn't warrant giving big minutes if he can't be trusted to handle the responsibility half the time he is on the ice.
 
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Shaman464

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Indeed, AA was still in the exploitative ELC contract without arbitration rights. Sure AA is 1-dimensional but so are guys like Vanek. I'd prefer to watch AA play over Helm and Abdul-qadeer.

Think you misunderstood me about Mantha.

Their points per game is identical over past 2 seasons.

In general, the #1 factor contributing to number of points scored is ice-time. Give almost any NHL forward 20 minutes a game and they will get around 50 points per season at a minimum. Hence, the per 60 stat generally increases with ice-time because they get more opportunities to score. Unless they play significant PK minutes, than that number will drop. Maybe low-skill guys like Ott/Abdelkader willl stop at 40 but their season numbers increased.
Points per 60 almost never stays the same, let alone increases with more time. It’s a stat that both because of the inherent properties of how stats work and way the level of competition changes with usage tends to favor small sample sizes. And while I’m sure AA would score marginally more points with more ice time, there are two reasons why giving him more ice time would be a poor decision. First because the amount his scoring will go up already has been shown will be at a diminishing rate per minute of extra ice time. He’s already hit diminishing returns on his production. Second because when he’s on the ice against other teams top talent it’s going to lead to more goals against. Meaning it’s almost certainly a wash or worse a net negative to play him more minutes because he may create 5 more goals a season playing 18 minutes but he’ll also cause there to be 10 more goals scored against.
 
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Mlotek

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Traveled to Windsor for Poutine fest this weekend. Across river from Detroit.

Looks like your whipping boy of AA is on several billboards advertising season tickets.
 

Shaman464

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Traveled to Windsor for Poutine fest this weekend. Across river from Detroit.

Looks like your whipping boy of AA is on several billboards advertising season tickets.

They used Wendell Clark's picture in the 90s to do the same. Advertising isn't indicative of anything.
 

dragonballgtz

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Jul 30, 2014
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Package him up with some of our extra picks to move up in the draft. If he does end up coming back and the relationship between management and AA continues to be rocky, then move him out. No need to hold onto a player who won't buy into the system (even though Trashill sucks) and show no effort on the ice for the majority of the season.
 

Claypool

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I will give you a secret to Red Wing games. If Detroit is losing after 2 periods, just stop watching.

Detroit were 1-32-5 when trailing after 2 periods.

All 31 teams had single digit wins when trailing after two periods. What's your point?
 

StargateSG1

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Package him up with some of our extra picks to move up in the draft. If he does end up coming back and the relationship between management and AA continues to be rocky, then move him out. No need to hold onto a player who won't buy into the system (even though Trashill sucks) and show no effort on the ice for the majority of the season.
Here is a novel idea... Move out the damn management.
Too late, I know.
 

Mlotek

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Points per 60 almost never stays the same, let alone increases with more time. It’s a stat that both because of the inherent properties of how stats work and way the level of competition changes with usage tends to favor small sample sizes. And while I’m sure AA would score marginally more points with more ice time, there are two reasons why giving him more ice time would be a poor decision. First because the amount his scoring will go up already has been shown will be at a diminishing rate per minute of extra ice time. He’s already hit diminishing returns on his production. Second because when he’s on the ice against other teams top talent it’s going to lead to more goals against. Meaning it’s almost certainly a wash or worse a net negative to play him more minutes because he may create 5 more goals a season playing 18 minutes but he’ll also cause there to be 10 more goals scored against.
Damn, by that logic guys like Vanek and Tarasenko should have been out of the league years ago.

Hell, Yzerman was one of the WORST players defensively for the first 10+ years of his career.
 

Hen Kolland

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Damn, by that logic guys like Vanek and Tarasenko should have been out of the league years ago.

Hell, Yzerman was one of the WORST players defensively for the first 10+ years of his career.

Here's the difference...

By the age of 23, Athanasiou (3rd season) has put up a career high of 33 points in 15:19 aTOI.

By Yzerman's 23 year old season (6th season) had put up a career high of 155 points. If you look at his 3rd season, as a 20 year old, Yzerman put up 42 points in 51 games (about a 67 point pace). Tarasenko played his 3rd season also at 23, had a career high of 73 points playing only 17:37 aTOI. Vanek's second year was his 23 year old season, had 84 points in 16:47 aTOI.

You listed players that were elite top line, goal scoring/playmaking forwards that have more than doubled Athanasiou's output without exceeding 20 minutes per night. Their contributions on offense vastly outweighed their defensive lapses. If Athanasiou was a 35+ goal/75+ point forward, we wouldn't be talking about his shortcomings, we'd be talking about a long term, $8M+ contract.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Damn, by that logic guys like Vanek and Tarasenko should have been out of the league years ago.

Hell, Yzerman was one of the WORST players defensively for the first 10+ years of his career.

And he was one of the best offensive players. The **** are you talking about?

He was not on a third line and scoring 4 more points than a checking line center. He was quite literally the only offensive threat this team had in the middle of the 80s.

There is a huge difference between being ELITE on the offensive end and sucking at defense and being good at offense and sucking at defense.

Tarasenko, young Yzerman, and young Vanek would have been/are game planned to stop. Yzerman at his best, scored literally 5x as many points as AA did this year.
 
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