What to Make of John Tavares' Career?

[WarriorofTime]

It was definitely an unusual result. From expansion (1968) to last year, that was the 2nd lowest a forward, who was a Hart trophy finalist, has ranked in the scoring race. (The only forward who ranked lower was Mario Lemieux in 2001 - a special situation).

It was a strange result, but it's (somewhat) understandable. It was a shortened season, and only ten points separated 2nd from 17th place. Several of the players above Tavares didn't get many (or any) votes because they missed the playoffs (St. Louis, Stamkos, Staal, Giroux, Hall); they were either clearly weaker than their linemate (Kunitz, Backstrom, Ribiero); or there was vote-splitting between two strong teammates (Toews and Kane - who finished 4th and 6th; Datsyuk and Zetterberg).

Back out those names (plus Ovechkin and Crosby, who finished 1st and 2nd) and we're only left with Getzlaf and Kessel who arguably "should" have finished ahead. I would have voted for Getzlaf over Tavares, but it wasn't an egregious choice; and Kessel was a defensive black hole who's value is less than his stats suggest. (Plus, Tavares got credit for helping the Islanders return to the playoffs for the first time since 2007).

This is a long-winded way of saying that it was unusual that Tavares was a Hart finalist while placing so low in the scoring race. But, under the circumstances, it can be explained.

I think Toews should have finished ahead of Tavares. He was an analytical 5 on 5 monster that season. One more point, and recall that Toews played a western conference only schedule and the west was the lower scoring conference, with Toews also playing 1:25 on the PK every night. Hawks were 1st in the League with one of the best point % in a long time... and in terms of "valuable" the Hawks were actually pretty shallow at Center, with Michal Handzus spending much of the season centering the 2nd line with Kane that year. But Tavares gets more votes for what, leading the Islanders to 8th place by virtue of a 3 point team lead over his linemate?

 

[wetcoast]

During his prime that was quite rare, from 2012 to 2018, only 7x 100 pts season:

Crosby-Giroux-Kane-Kucherov-Malkin-McDavidx2, almost exclusively HOF all time offensive player in their prime doing it.

2019 to 2023 despite covid, 27x 100pts seasons. A bit like Getzlaf and some other around that time, they would have had a 100 pts season in the earlys 90s, 2006-2007 or since 2018 would they have peaked in those eras.

This is a fair point and his skating and that support on some of his NYI teams were Mats Sundin terrible.

I think the biggest thing holding Tavares back all time is untimely injuries though.

He was 3rd in NHL scoring when his NHL season finishes in 13-14 and a full season there really helps his resume.

He also gets injured in the first period against the Habs in the 21 playoffs and the Leafs lose that series 4-3.

All in all he isn't a great player due to his skating, which would have been much less an issue 40 or 50 years ago but he has still had a pretty good career looking at it objectively.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Let me ask a question that's related:

Stamkos has had two Cups and Two Rockets, but can you not say that he didn't reach the heights he was supposed to either? Maybe if Tavares had gone to Tampa he would have two cups and the conversation would be different. I don't see one as significantly better than the other.

I think there's a pretty decent gap between the two, to be honest.

I'd say Stamkos was a bit overrated when he was younger. He was pretty fast and a good shooter but not a great puck carrier or play driver. I mean, some put him in the same sentence as Crosby and Ovechkin...

However, I also think he's been underrated in recent seasons. This is a guy who puts up points year after year. I think people are too dismissive of his offensive contributions the past few seasons. For guys like Sakic and Hawerchuk (for example), people put value in top 20 scoring finishes. I'd say it matters that Stamkos was fairly high in the scoring race in 2018, 2019 and 2022. This season he's been pretty brutal at Even Strength and basically the stereotypical PP one-time sniper some make him out to be, but he wasn't a bad ES producer last season and was actually a great one two seasons ago. He was seventh in ES scoring in '22 and just eight ES points behind McDavid. He put up 106 points. That season is probably better than all but one or two seasons Tavares has had in his career.

If you look at top tens, Stammer has been top ten in points six times, Tavares just twice.

In goals, Stamkos has been top ten eight times, Tavares four times.

 

[Nick Hansen]

If you look at top tens, Stammer has been top ten in points six times, Tavares just twice.

In goals, Stamkos has been top ten eight times, Tavares four times.

This reminds me of Kovalchuk who was top ten eight times when it comes to goals, and top ten five times in points.

 

[dalewood12]

As someone on the Pens board once said, he's kind of like Diet Crosby.

 

[Boxscore]

As someone on the Pens board once said, he's kind of like Diet Crosby.

... or the powder mix brand of Gatorade that you find on the discount shelf at the sporting good store because it's been expired for 7 months.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

He will have over 1000 points 500 goals and can say I was an MVP finalist twice in the big league. Great career

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

The crazy thing with Tavares is this -- say all the balls bounce right for the Leafs this year and they win a Cup and Tavares scores a couple big OT goals -- does that drastically change his legacy?

I think it would have to be a Conn Smythe and not just centering the overshadowed 2nd line behind the Matthews and Marner show.. I don’t consider Stamkos legacy to have improved that much from Lightning run (although winning without him also made him look less important)

 

[The Macho King]

I think it would have to be a Conn Smythe and not just centering the overshadowed 2nd line behind the Matthews and Marner show.. I don’t consider Stamkos legacy to have improved that much from Lightning run (although winning without him also made him look less important)

Stamkos winning silenced a *lot* of criticism, but it probably shouldn't have. Dude is a ghost in the playoffs.

I will say - even the season he wasn't there in the postseason, he went into the bubble the entire time and was in the room. Which was kind of cool. And in the game where he got hurt again (his only game), he ended up staying on the bench the whole game to cheer on the team.

I have a weird relationship with Stamkos. So many ways he has disappointed, but I'll puke if I have to see him in another sweater.

 

[sr edler]

Kind of a boring player to watch, but I tend to like swift fluid skaters and he was (or is I guess, he's still playing, which is fairly easy to forget) essentially a lacrosse player in skates who looked like he was moving in quicksand.

I'll also say, I wonder if he'll be mostly remembered for those 11 millions. In the "everyone talks about the cap and contracts more than actual on-ice things" era, this is a contract that still stands out quite a lot, because of the team/market he signed in and the implications of the deal (essentially crippling the whole internal structure).

Another also, Tavares being long-term captain of these teams (NYI and TML) and his ambitious but painfully uncharismatic persona reminds me so much about Markus Näslund. Both were also 'robbed' on a scoring title on the last day of the regular season.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

tavares is kind of unprecedented, in that he’s one of those guys who racked up really great achievements on a crappy team that nobody watched, so i never saw him. but when you looked at his track record on the islanders, being a two-time hart finalist, he looked like he’d be a sure hall of famer. but then he went to the biggest stage possible just as he was falling off his peak and that’s what people saw.

at least for now it looks like going to toronto hurts him, because of a combination of expectations, young stars who exceeded him, the microscope, and being in the sort of buffalo-hawerchuk part of his career, rather than the winnipeg-hawerchuk level. what we thought would happen is, now the world will see how good john tavares really is, but then for the most part we didn’t.

but i wonder how time will bear this out, assuming that he never wins a cup or has a legendary playoff performance in toronto, which of course may easily yet happen. guys like gartner and andreychuk and nieuwendyk, i think they could have had the exact same careers but if they’d gone to winnipeg/phoenix instead of toronto when they each were traded to the leafs, i don’t think they would have made the hall of fame. i think it’s the combo of raw numbers plus the goodwill from being well liked guys around town that put them over the top. this is a hall where you hear infinitely more about gary roberts than rick tocchet, which frankly is ridiculous.

 

[Staniowski]

tavares is kind of unprecedented, in that he’s one of those guys who racked up really great achievements on a crappy team that nobody watched, so i never saw him. but when you looked at his track record on the islanders, being a two-time hart finalist, he looked like he’d be a sure hall of famer. but then he went to the biggest stage possible just as he was falling off his peak and that’s what people saw.

at least for now it looks like going to toronto hurts him, because of a combination of expectations, young stars who exceeded him, the microscope, and being in the sort of buffalo-hawerchuk part of his career, rather than the winnipeg-hawerchuk level. what we thought would happen is, now the world will see how good john tavares really is, but then for the most part we didn’t.

but i wonder how time will bear this out, assuming that he never wins a cup or has a legendary playoff performance in toronto, which of course may easily yet happen. guys like gartner and andreychuk and nieuwendyk, i think they could have had the exact same careers but if they’d gone to winnipeg/phoenix instead of toronto when they each were traded to the leafs, i don’t think they would have made the hall of fame. i think it’s the combo of raw numbers plus the goodwill from being well liked guys around town that put them over the top. this is a hall where you hear infinitely more about gary roberts than rick tocchet, which frankly is ridiculous.

I like the comparison between Toronto Tavares and Buffalo Hawerchuk.

 

[Staniowski]

Whatever you think about Tavares, he's going to be an easy HHOFer. Lots of career points, well-known, well- liked.

I think the big issue many people have with his career is that they're still comparing him to his 15-year-old stardom, and the expectations of that teenager.

He's a really good player - I especially like his stick and puck skills and his goal scoring from in close - but he's never been a truly great player and nobody should expect him to be.

I do think that he would've scored more if he went to a less talented team when he was a free agent. The Leafs have probably 3 of the 15 most talented offensive forwards in the League (all at their best), and Tavares doesn't look as good in comparison to them, and also doesn't get as much opportunity to score as he would on a less talented team.

 

[The Panther]

Stamkos winning silenced a *lot* of criticism, but it probably shouldn't have. Dude is a ghost in the playoffs.

Bit harsh for a guy who scored 19 goals and 37 points in back-to-back playoffs, isn't it?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Bit harsh for a guy who scored 19 goals and 37 points in back-to-back playoffs, isn't it?

No, not at all if you watched the games. He's extremely disappointing and it's patently obvious -- if you can find him.

 

[The Macho King]

Bit harsh for a guy who scored 19 goals and 37 points in back-to-back playoffs, isn't it?

His 2022 playoffs was probably the best of his career.

And those back to back playoffs was 46 games. That's a 34 goal, 66 point pace. For a player most think of as a superstar.

While you expect scoring to decrease a bit in the playoffs, that's more than "a bit". That's "a shitload." And this is a guy who gets PP time with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman.

 

[RR44]

Tavares has to this point has had a pretty good career...almost a point/game player, made linemates around him better, 6 time all star, Olympic Gold Medal, World Cup of Hockey champion, decorated major junior player. Debatable H of F'er however there's a few items that stand out to me regarding Tavares:

-a catalyst for exceptional teenage players under 15 years old to be drafted/eligible for major junior...his petition more or less forced the OHL to introduce the exceptional player status

-shows how good the NHL is when a 1st overall can't miss prospect with questionable skating is just another very good NHL player

-his off season workouts are very intense, showing how dedicated he is to his craft...a former co-worker told me that people in hockey circles he knows say he's arguably pound for pound the strongest player in the NHL, Tavares is a pro's pro

The NHL usually doesn't lie...there are many a player who have stood out in major junior/NCAA who have not stood out in the NHL yet have had a pretty darn good career. Chris Phillips always stands out to me as one of those guys who was a 1st overall pick dman, excellent in major junior yet ended up carving out a 17 year career with one team becoming a durable stay at home, minute munching match up dman rather than an elite, offensive minded dman. Oh and his number is retired by the one team he played for his entire career...I'd say that's a pretty damn good career! Tavares I believe will likely be more appreciated after retirement, much like a Phillips.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Absolutely not a Hall of Famer.

 

[Green]

I do think that he would've scored more if he went to a less talented team when he was a free agent. The Leafs have probably 3 of the 15 most talented offensive forwards in the League (all at their best), and Tavares doesn't look as good in comparison to them, and also doesn't get as much opportunity to score as he would on a less talented team.

Isn't it the opposite, he benefitted largely playing with those young guns on his team and if he had to drive an offense by himself his numbers would be worse?

 

[Dingo]

big guy, good all around game, consistent totals, good internationally. Might not look like him, but kind of resembles Sundin in overall impact.

I will always laugh at myself for HOW MUCH better I thought he was than Hedman. Talk about two different career arcs. Its not even close as to who has had a better career now.

 

[Section 104]

No, not at all if you watched the games. He's extremely disappointing and it's patently obvious -- if you can find him.

Funny, I always think of him as being injured in the 2020 playoffs but scoring a goal in his only 3 minute appearance to make it 2-0 in Game 3 of the Finals. The closest the NHL has to Kirk Gibson’s 1988 World Series home run or Willis Reed hobbling out and making the first two shots in game 7 of the 1970 NBA finals.

I suppose injuries have diminished what could have been a legendary career but he still is 3rd in goals scored for active players with 542

 

[Melrose Munch]

Absolutely not a Hall of Famer.

Nonsense.
He was a top 5 center for a strench
Did damage in international tournaments.

He's a name and a top 150 player at worst.

 

[The Macho King]

Absolutely not a Hall of Famer.

Not my Hall, but the one they've got he's probably a shoe in.

 

[GlitchMarner]

big guy, good all around game, consistent totals, good internationally. Might not look like him, but kind of resembles Sundin in overall impact.

I will always laugh at myself for HOW MUCH better I thought he was than Hedman. Talk about two different career arcs. Its not even close as to who has had a better career now.

He was kind of similar to Sundin (probably trending to be better, in fact) before he came to Toronto.

In Toronto I don't think he's been nearly as good. Sundin moved around way better out there. He carried players and lines. Tavares gets greasy goals off work from other players.

 

[Gorskyontario]

In Toronto I don't think he's been nearly as good. Sundin moved around way better out there. He carried players and lines. Tavares gets greasy goals off work from other players.

That part is just maple leafs cope. Sundin was a great player, but leafs fans genuinely think he was Mario Lemieux.