What to Make of John Tavares' Career?

GlitchMarner

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I think it's fair to say he hasn't lived up to pre-draft hype. He's had a very good career and may make the HHOF one day (he definitely will if the Leafs win a Cup with him as the Captain).

It's hard to compare him to other centres, though. He was an offensive stud in Junior but has never been a particularly dynamic player in the NHL, though he was an offensive force who could elevate and produce playing with middling players when he was an Islander. In Toronto, outside of his first season with the team, he's been more of a high-end passenger offensively, becoming increasingly dependent on Power Plays and linemates for production.

Stylistically, WTF is he even? You think of other high scoring first overall picks and they had unique and definable styles. Joe Thornton was a big, talented guy who could score goals and assert himself physically when he was younger. He later became an exceptional playmaker who used his size and reach to his advantage and held onto the puck long enough for passing opportunities to open up. Sundin was similarly a big man who used his frame to protect the puck and he could dominate down low. Modano was a great skater who used his speed and skating to his advantage on offense and defense. Guys like MacKinnnon and McDavid are likewise great skaters who are dynamic offensive players.

Tavares seems like a guy who thinks he's an adept puck-carrier and offensive driver but who often loses the puck trying to carry it in open ice. He has very good hands, but because of his slow and somewhat sluggish sort of skating, he really isn't very effective with the puck on his stick for long unless he's along the wall. He's kind of like a high-end grinder and net-front presence guy - maybe a very poor man's Crosby if Crosby lacked puck skills?

Stylistically, I can't think of any real good comparisons. In terms of overall calibre of career, I'd say he ranks behind the likes of Kopitar and Bergeron. Stamkos, Kane and MacKinnnon have accomplished more. Would you put him somewhere in the neighborhood of an Elias or Alfredsson?
 

seventieslord

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I think it's fair to say he hasn't lived up to pre-draft hype. He's had a very good career and may make the HHOF one day (he definitely will if the Leafs win a Cup with him as the Captain).

It's hard to compare him to other centres, though. He was an offensive stud in Junior but has never been a particularly dynamic player in the NHL, though he was an offensive force who could elevate and produce playing with middling players when he was an Islander. In Toronto, outside of his first season with the team, he's been more of a high-end passenger offensively, becoming increasingly dependent on Power Plays and linemates for production.

Stylistically, WTF is he even? You think of other high scoring first overall picks and they had unique and definable styles. Joe Thornton was a big, talented guy who could score goals and assert himself physically when he was younger. He later became an exceptional playmaker who used his size and reach to his advantage and held onto the puck long enough for passing opportunities to open up. Sundin was similarly a big man who used his frame to protect the puck and he could dominate down low. Modano was a great skater who used his speed and skating to his advantage on offense and defense. Guys like MacKinnnon and McDavid are likewise great skaters who are dynamic offensive players.

Tavares seems like a guy who thinks he's an adept puck-carrier and offensive driver but who often loses the puck trying to carry it in open ice. He has very good hands, but because of his slow and somewhat sluggish sort of skating, he really isn't very effective with the puck on his stick for long unless he's along the wall. He's kind of like a high-end grinder and net-front presence guy - maybe a very poor man's Crosby if Crosby lacked puck skills?

Stylistically, I can't think of any real good comparisons. In terms of overall calibre of career, I'd say he ranks behind the likes of Kopitar and Bergeron. Stamkos, Kane and MacKinnnon have accomplished more. Would you put him somewhere in the neighborhood of an Elias or Alfredsson?
Stylistically, very poor man's Crosby seems fair.

Looking at our HOH top-200 list, there would not be a player I'd place him ahead of. So that's a "no" on topping Elias or Alfredsson for me. Remember that his defensive impacts have been awful for his entire career. His offensive exploits need to be taken with an appropriate grain of salt, similar to Kane, except that Kane just did a heck of a lot more, especially in the playoffs.
 

MadLuke

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In a way he peaked at a good time 2013-2015 or so, Hart finalist 2 time, all-star team, that a good enough peak probably, with Stamkos injured, Kane not yet fully there, Ovechkin post peak, Malkin injured every year, Mack and other not yet in the conversation he was able to stand out quite a bit. so it was not a bad moment to have it. Also looked good on team Canada many times and was able to make the olympics team (and despite the numbers, I remember him playing well but maybe a misremembering with the world cup).

In a other way, a single playoff round win with the Isles, making that part of a career a bit of if no one hear the tree fall in a forest does it make a sound or just air pressure wave.

Islanders becoming better right at the moment they lose him to FA for nothing, fair or not, will always look suspicious.

He has good enough peak and seem to be building longevity and will have great numbers, captain of the leaf, should be in.
 
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Melrose Munch

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Hall of Famer but skating probably prevented him from being closer to doing what Kucherov or Pat Kane have done.

Will have 1200 points in any case, a very quiet career and at worst top 15 of his era.
 
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GlitchMarner

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Hall of Famer but skating probably prevented him from being closer to doing what Kucherov or Pat Kane has done.

Will have 1200 points in any case, a very quiet career and at worst top 15 of his era.

Similar to Backstrom in that regard. He may be the best comparable from Tavares' own era.
 

Melrose Munch

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Similar to Backstrom in that regard. He may be the best comparable from Tavares' own era.
That's a great comparison. And I think he's ahead of Backstrom to be honest. It just seems like he should have an 100-point season or so but that just wasn't in the cards. I still think he clears the bar for the hall, but he comes up short because he doesn't have numbers like Mark Recchi for example.
 

MadLuke

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It just seems like he should have an 100-point season or so
During his prime that was quite rare, from 2012 to 2018, only 7x 100 pts season:

Crosby-Giroux-Kane-Kucherov-Malkin-McDavidx2, almost exclusively HOF all time offensive player in their prime doing it.

2019 to 2023 despite covid, 27x 100pts seasons. A bit like Getzlaf and some other around that time, they would have had a 100 pts season in the earlys 90s, 2006-2007 or since 2018 would they have peaked in those eras.
 
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MVP of West Hollywd

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I thought he was a legit superstar with the Islanders but I don't think the Leafs version has been close to a HOF player other than the first year I guess. Even last year his stats look good with 36 goals and 80 points, but just not really feeling it. He is a weird mix of having that around the net type skills and instincts but seems like he was best carrying a less offensively talented team.
 
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Crosby2010

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Never mind 100 points, Tavares has never surpassed 88! I know that there was that Dead puck era 2.0 post-2010 and Tavares getting 86 points and nearly winning the Art Ross was actually high point totals. But he'll be a guy that ends up with close to 600 or so goals and you just sort of have to put him in the Hall. He won't get them the way Dave Andreychuk did by hanging around too long, but you also will look at his seasons and just want to find that prime that makes you say "Okay, he's a HHOFer."

He has been a disappointment in the playoffs, he was injured in the 2014 Olympics, although he did play decent in the 2016 World Cup. He scored over 40 once. Over 30 just 6 times. He isn't physical, he is not great defensively. Ugh. He's a frustrating guy to rank. I can remember in 2007 when he cracked 72 goals in the OHL and he was still two years away from the draft. I couldn't imagine what sort of stats he could put up two years later, but in both years he regressed. I realize he was probably trying to round out his complete game and such so that comes as a price with offense, but there is just nothing that jumps out about you as to how he scores those goals. I figured his performance in the 2009 World Juniors was a good sign of things to come.

I just think he lacks intensity. He really has had plenty of chances to help carry the Leafs and he hasn't done it. Marner and Matthews haven't either, but they are going to get into the HHOF based on their play regardless, Tavares not so much, at least not as a lock.
 

The Panther

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I think the OP put it well in saying that Tavares is a remarkably non-dynamic player. He probably moved better in his Islander days, but there's something very dull about watching him play. That being said, he's obviously been quite effective at what he does.
 

Terry Yake

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he's a HOF'er assuming he reaches 500 goals. got a shot at 1200 pts as well assuming his play doesn't take a nosedive anytime soon

if he gets in without a cup or any individual hardware, it'll be one of the quietest HOF careers i can think of
 
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WarriorofTime

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2016–172016–17EasternMetropolitan5th8241291294241242Did not qualify
2017–182017–18EasternMetropolitan6th8235371080264296Did not qualify

...Then the Islanders win 5 Playoff Series (plus a Play-In) round the next three seasons. Meanwhile, he hops to a team like that is young and on the rise, and has won 1 playoff series in six seasons since signing him. Bad look. They'll throw him into the Hall of Fame for stats, but I don't think his reputation is particularly great.
 
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authentic

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In a way he peaked at a good time 2013-2015 or so, Hart finalist 2 time, all-star team, that a good enough peak probably, with Stamkos injured, Kane not yet fully there, Ovechkin post peak, Malkin injured every year, Mack and other not yet in the conversation he was able to stand out quite a bit. so it was not a bad moment to have it. Also looked good on team Canada many times and was able to make the olympics team (and despite the numbers, I remember him playing well but maybe a misremembering with the world cup).

In a other way, a single playoff round win with the Isles, making that part of a career a bit of if no one hear the tree fall in a forest does it make a sound or just air pressure wave.

Islanders becoming better right at the moment they lose him to FA for nothing, fair or not, will always look suspicious.

He has good enough peak and seem to be building longevity and will have great numbers, captain of the leaf, should be in.

I will say as someone who watched his only playoff series win with the Islanders, he was downright dominant in that series and basically won it for them single-handedly. It was only one round and ultimately doesn’t add anything to his career but it’s something I thought was worth mentioning, and he’s never even approached half of that level of play for Toronto in the playoffs.
 
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Tavares has always been very Pierre Turgeon-ish to me. Not that their styles mirror each other, but both were "star centers" who seemed to be on the lower energy scale and weren't capable of dragging their clubs through the trenches to win anything significant at the NHL level. Tavares has always been a fine points compiler but if I'm looking for a 1C to carry my club for a decade+ he wouldn't be my choice over guys blessed with more intangibles, bite, or pure hatred for losing.

I guess stylistically, he reminds me most of a watered down version of Ronnie Francis or Joe Sakic. He's not a burner or swift skater but he has very good mitts, smarts, and a knack for putting the puck in the net.
 

The Panther

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This might sound crazy, but is Tavares really that far ahead—say, in career value—to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?

Tavares is thicker, stronger, and can probably take more abuse around the side/front of the goal, where he's sometimes quite effective. Nuge is a better passer and probably sees the ice better.

No doubt Tavares dominated his teams (esp. for NYI) more and has been a more consistent scorer. He has more of those "top line(r)" type of seasons, and so I'd rank him comfortably ahead of Nuge. But not by that much...
 

Michael Farkas

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To put a bit of feather in Tavares' cap, as this thread isn't really going well for him, he completely made two really questionable linemates look competent for a while...

Quadruple-A player P.A. Parenteau owes all of his career earnings to Tavares. Then he turned Matt Moulson, an unsigned 9th rounder, to a perennial 30 goal man. Moulson could really shoot, but really couldn't skate at all.
 

ResilientBeast

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No doubt Tavares dominated his teams (esp. for NYI) more and has been a more consistent scorer. He has more of those "top line(r)" type of seasons, and so I'd rank him comfortably ahead of Nuge. But not by that much...

The more I read this the more ridiculous it sounds

Tavares just in New York as the top option
Hart: 3, 3
AST: 1, 4, 6, 7
Points: 2, 7

Nuge in Edmonton overall
Hart: Hahahahahahahahahahahaha
AST: 3 (at LW in 2023)
Points 9th (in 2023) - 53 of his 104 points on the PP with McDavid and Drasitil. 59th in the league in even strength scoring.

Nuge isn't even close, if you didn't staple him to either Draisatil or McDavid dude would have no AST finishes of note or top 10s in points. Nuge was a failure as "the guy" in Edmonton and part of the reason we were in position to draft even better replacements.
 

WarriorofTime

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Quadruple-A player P.A. Parenteau owes all of his career earnings to Tavares.
He had 43 in 48 in a lower scoring Western Conference only schedule in the abridged lockout shortened season when he was still getting 1st line ice time. 25th in the NHL.
 

Michael Farkas

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Yeah, I can read stat lines too. Point is, Tavares put him in a situation where he got a big ticket. Peak Duchene propped him up for a bit longer, but Colorado couldn't get out of that deal fast enough...dealing it for end of the line Briere and then it was bought out.
 

WarriorofTime

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Yeah, I can read stat lines too.
It goes beyond reading stat lines and more about understanding players like that.
Point is, Tavares put him in a situation where he got a big ticket. Peak Duchene propped him up for a bit longer
Yeah.. this is you completely missing the ball on players like Parenteau and how they fit into the global hockey hierarchy. Parenteau has always been a skilled player and capable point producer. He was 8th in the QMJHL in PPG in his Age 18 season and 1st in the QMJHL in PPG his Age 19 season (with some missed time for a World Juniors appearance). Players like Parenteau are ones that are able to produce, that's never the issue.

The issue is that they make for lousy depth players, and ultimately they need to be in a first line role with favorable ice time in order to "succeed".... and a step further, their "success" is at a lower level than the elite level players.... so it puts them in no man's land. When they're say... a 9th round pick and a team has no real sunk capital into their success, they aren't put in a position to suceed no matter what. They don't make good third liners because they don't succeed much when they are takin a lot of defensive zone time, they aren't getting powerplay minutes, they aren't well suited as checkers or penalty killers, they aren't going to get a 1st line role where they can focus on offense because the team (say the Ducks in 2006-07 who were in the midst of a pretty good season...) has better options available. So, like Parenteau, they toil around the minors putting up big stats in a 1st line role.

The only hope for a player like this is to end up on a bad team, a really bad team, one of the worst teams in the League. Where they can be a "bad team scorer" and get 1st line ice time by default and be put in a position to "suceed". That is exactly what happened with Parenteau who showed up to a very soft training camp for the 2010-11 Islanders and as a big AHL scorer, was a default "best skill guy" amongst the Wingers. He found moderate success in such a role on a very bad team with Tavares at Center, and he did the same with Colorado that season. But in all such cases, it's a temporary gig until they are able to find someone better for that role. With a player like Parenteau not even getting that break until he was a bit older, he was also clearly up against an age-related clock.

As he slips back down the lineup, his production goes away and so too does whatever relevance he had. Yet for a player that played just two seasons with the Islanders to hang on another 5 seasons in the NHL means he doesn't "owe his paycheck" to John Tavares. He owes his paycheck to ending up in a perfect situation for him to get the ice time he needed to find moderate success.
 

Michael Farkas

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Well...uhhh...so your argument is "I completely agree with you, but I don't think that Parenteau should actually transfer funds from his own bank account to John Tavares"...? If so, that's fine with me...it's quite reasonable haha

You pretty much got it. He's a very incomplete player and not very adaptable and was fortunate to land this "temporary gig" as you put it. His stat line was inflated by Tavares in a contract year which got him a contract that several teams had no desire to see to its completion.

So, if I'm "missing the ball" on this player then so are you because we basically see this player the same...or so it reads.
 

MadLuke

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is Tavares really that far ahead—say, in career value—to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
would say yes, in their 10 first season respectively...

Tavares:
7th in pts
3rd in goals
2x Hart finalist, AS-1 at the center position, felt like one of the big piece of a loaded Team Canada
was the clear leader of a playoff series win (that how low we are getting here), face of a team and legit star.

RNH
41th in pts
53th in goals
All rookie team, second place calder being the only attention award wise ever
Abyssal in the playoff ( 0goals, 4 assists in 13 games at his peak).

Feel clearly like players on different tier of career value, hard to imagine the Leafs nation making a big deal about getting RNH.

Would it even be a question in a world without Mc-Drai ?
 
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WarriorofTime

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Well...uhhh...so your argument is "I completely agree with you,
I didn't agree with you, at least not completely. I said Parenteau is a capable scorer if you give him 1st line ice time, but he's rarely worth 1st line ice time.
but I don't think that Parenteau should actually transfer funds from his own bank account to John Tavares"...?
I am saying "John Tavares by sheer force of will and awesomeness dragged P.A. Parenteau kicking and screaming to 53 and 67 points" is not an accurate statement.
If so, that's fine with me...it's quite reasonable haha

You pretty much got it. He's a very incomplete player and not very adaptable and was fortunate to land this "temporary gig" as you put it. His stat line was inflated by Tavares in a contract year which got him a contract that several teams had no desire to see to its completion.
In some ways, yes, but I don't think Tavares is so unique and had he through circumstance found himself into a Top Line role for an entire season on a number of other teams he'd probably produce similarly. I think there are a lot of players that fit this bill. While I agree that the "P.A. Parenteau of Centers" may not be able to give the real P.A. Parenteau the same level of production, I think the typical NHL 1st Line Center wouldn't lead to too big of a difference.

Hopefully I'm being clear there as to what I mean.
So, if I'm "missing the ball" on this player then so are you because we basically see this player the same...or so it reads.
Perhaps we agree more than initial impression, I brought up Parenteau's 2012-13 Avs stats as a way to indicate it was more about receiving the right sort of opportunity more so than a John Tavares specific effect.
 

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