What to Make of John Tavares' Career?

[Hockey Outsider]

There are some similarities between Tavares and Pierre Turgeon. Stylistically, it's only a marginal comparison (Turgeon was a much better skater; Tavares is stockier and a bit less adverse to contact). But there are some interesting connections - both were first overall picks, both played a portion of their career on the Islanders, both were top ten in scoring twice, both slightly preferred to shoot over pass (especially as centres), both were better producers at ES than on the powerplay, and both have been accused of lacking intensity.

I wouldn't describe either player as a compiler (in the sense that neither player hung around padding their career totals - like Dave Andreychuk). But, in both cases, their career totals exaggerate how good they were. (Believe it or not, from 2012 to 2023, Tavares was 4th in the NHL in scoring, behind only Kane, Crosy and Ovechkin). Both players had a lot of years as the 11th to 30th best scorer in the NHL. Both seemed content having (essentially) zero defensive responsibilities, playing with zero physicality, racking up points in the regular season, and in their 30's, letting another star centre take the heat (Modano/Sakic and Matthews).

Both players were briefly among the best in the NHL (but it was also due to circumstances). Turgeon has that huge 132 point season (a great year - but it was fortunate that his best season occurred during the most freakishly high scoring season in league history). Tavares nearly nabbed the Art Ross in 2015 (and was a Hart finalist) - but, as has been discussed elsewhere, this was one of the most dismal seasons in NHL history.

Neither player accomplished much in the postseason. Turgeon, I think, was a better playoff performer than he's generally given credit for. But it doesn't look great that his team only made it out of the first round six times (in 15 attempts) - and in four of those six years, he was no higher than 4th on the team in scoring. Tavares' playoff track record has been truly dismal. He had one excellent series (2015 against Florida). But overall, his production has been much lower in the spring. It doesn't reflect well on him that his old team started making deep playoff runs after he left, and the Leafs supposed "Cup parade" never materialized.

I think Turgeon was a slightly better player (he was more skilled, and some badly timed injuries robbed him of several top ten scoring finishes). But ultimately Tavares may end up having a better career. I'm not offended by either player being in the Hall (they're not Gillies/Andreychuk level inductions), but at the same time, doesn't feel like there's a ton of substance behind all those regular season points.

 

[WarriorofTime]

2x Hart finalist, AS-1 at the center position,

I really don't think he should have been. This feels like one of those "John Tavares Prospect Legend" reputation effect carries the way. Being 2nd in Art Ross in a very tightly compact group, I think more consideration to 2-way play matters more than just default looking to points. There is a reason the cup winners of that era were so slanted towards teams with the best 2-way centers.

 

[Moose Head]

Always got a Jason Spezza vibe from him. Really highly rated at 15-16 and some thoughts that they could be the next huge star, but never quite living up to the initial ‘next one’ hype. Still really good players and careers, but always the thought that they left something on the table.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Now fellas, RNH might actually get 330 points in his next 230 games, and then he'd basically be where Tavares is now.

All secondary assists on the PP where Drai or McDavid did the heavy lifting

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I'm surprised that so many people here are making the case that Tavares is a HOFer and also a disappointment. That doesn't make sense to me.

 

[MadLuke]

I'm surprised that so many people here are making the case that Tavares is a HOFer and also a disappointment. That doesn't make sense to me.

The nhl HOF is open enough to imagine 3 players of every draft if not more in average ending up in it.

An hyped record breaking at 16 first overall, highest paid FA in the league, etc.. can be both a low HOF and a low disappointment.

It is easy to imagine an HOF career for Bedard-Crosby-Lindros still being disappointing because the bar for the hall is Guy Carbonneau and Kevin Lowe not Mike Modano-Sundin, Lindros here being an actual real example of that.

Tavares was less hyped obviously, but you get the point.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The nhl HOF is open enough to imagine 3 players of every draft if not more in average ending up in it.

An hyped record breaking at 16 first overall, highest paid FA in the league, etc.. can be both a low HOF and a low disappointment.

It is easy to imagine an HOF career for Bedard-Crosby-Lindros still being disappointing, Lindros here being an actual real example of that.

Tavares was less hyped obviously, but you get the point.

On this

If you look at the surrounding draft years

2007
Lock
Patrick Kane

Potentially
PK Subban
Jamie Benn

2008
Lock
Stamkos
Doughty
Karlsson

Potentially
Pietrangelo
Josi

2009
Lock
Hedman

Potentially
Tavares
O'Reilly

2010
Lock
No one

Potential
Hall

2011
Lock
Kucherov

Potential
No one, really

2012
Lock
Vasilevskiy

Potential
Hellebuyck

You could argue the only forward lock drafted between 2007 (Kane) and 2013 (MacKinnon) is Kucherov. Sure, defensively it is strong. But Tavares has some pretty weak competition in his surrounding years.

They have to induct someone. And he'll hit the point totals that will make it easy.

The conversation at induction time won't be Crosby and Ovechkin vs. Tavares. It's going to be O'Reilly and Benn vs. Tavares.

 

[MS]

They were a bit different players but Turgeon is probably the best comparison.

Productive high-IQ players but not really captivating or eye-catching, didn't have great playoff resumes, not really great defensively and a bit stereotypically 'soft'.

Tavares just didn't take the amount of crap that Turgeon did because of their styles.

 

[Sadekuuro]

To me he has always played like he has a very high hockey IQ but not the dynamic physical skills. He generally in the right places, he's smart, he's good around the net but he'd be a whole different level of superstar if he had a serious plus speed game or power game or whatever.

I also kinda thought his smarts would result in more evolution in his game over time, but he never changed all that much.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I'm surprised that so many people here are making the case that Tavares is a HOFer and also a disappointment. That doesn't make sense to me.

While I wouldn't casually throw around a word like "bust", being the first ever exceptional player, the one they made up an entirely new rule for... Following that up with 72 goals two seasons before he was even eligible to be drafted. I think it's reasonable to say that even with a Hall of Fame Career, that people would have liked even more out of him than what he became.

 

[The Macho King]

To me he has always played like he has a very high hockey IQ but not the dynamic physical skills. He generally in the right places, he's smart, he's good around the net but he'd be a whole different level of superstar if he had a serious plus speed game or power game or whatever.

I also kinda thought his smarts would result in more evolution in his game over time, but he never changed all that much.

IDK I kind of always viewed him as having very good tools except for his skating.

He seems like a metronome out there. He's always going to give you exactly what he has. On one hand - that's consistent and that's not a bad thing. On the other, it means he doesn't have that extra gear, that extra level of intensity that can win you a series or take over a game. He just doesn't seem that competitive.

 

[Nick Hansen]

I never was a fan.

I remember back in the day there was this huge debate on HFBoards whether Tavares or Claude Giroux was the better one. Has that been resolved or...?

Sidenote: according to NHL.com, Tavares is 6'1 and 210 pounds. Wouldn't have guessed that. Looks smaller than that to me but perhaps that's because he always seems to be hunched over on the ice.

 

[The Panther]

He seems like a metronome out there. He's always going to give you exactly what he has. On one hand - that's consistent and that's not a bad thing. On the other, it means he doesn't have that extra gear, that extra level of intensity that can win you a series or take over a game.

I think you described him well here.

 

[Hockey Stathead]

What about Dale Hawerchuk as a comp for Tavares?

-1st overall picks
-centers who weren't considered graceful skaters, strong defensively, or physically-imposing
-Best Hart finishes: Hawerchuk (1x 2nd place) and Tavares (2x 3rd place)
-Top-10 point finishes: Hawerchuk (3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th) and Tavares (2nd and 7th)
-both played exactly 9 seasons with their original teams and 5 as captain (Hawerchuk shared captaincy with 2 other players for a 6th season)
-Hawerchuk's departure to new team resulted in move down depth chart (behind Pat LaFontaine when he was healthy) like Tavares behind Auston Matthews
-no Stanley Cups (Tavares TBD)

Tavares skews more towards goal scoring than playmaking compared to Hawerchuk, however.

 

[Gorskyontario]

I wouldn't describe either player as a compiler (in the sense that neither player hung around padding their career totals - like Dave Andreychuk).

What? Andreychuk was far more effective in Tampa in the twilight of his career then Turgeon. Turgeon was absolutely terrible in Dallas and Colorado.

What about Dale Hawerchuk as a comp for Tavares?

-1st overall picks
-centers who weren't considered graceful skaters, strong defensively, or physically-imposing
-Best Hart finishes: Hawerchuk (1x 2nd place) and Tavares (2x 3rd place)
-Top-10 point finishes: Hawerchuk (3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th) and Tavares (2nd and 7th)
-both played exactly 9 seasons with their original teams and 5 as captain (Hawerchuk shared captaincy with 2 other players for a 6th season)
-Hawerchuk's departure to new team resulted in move down depth chart (behind Pat LaFontaine when he was healthy) like Tavares behind Auston Matthews
-no Stanley Cups (Tavares TBD)

Tavares skews more towards goal scoring than playmaking compared to Hawerchuk, however.

Tavares isn't nearly skilled enough to be compared to Dale Hawerchuk.

 

[Fatass]

What? Andreychuk was far more effective in Tampa in the twilight of his career then Turgeon. Turgeon was absolutely terrible in Dallas and Colorado.



Tavares isn't nearly skilled enough to be compared to Dale Hawerchuk.

Yup. JT is a good player but he’s on the borderline of being a HHOF player. He likely gets in some day but down the road a ways.

 

[WarriorofTime]

What about Dale Hawerchuk as a comp for Tavares?

-1st overall picks
-centers who weren't considered graceful skaters, strong defensively, or physically-imposing
-Best Hart finishes: Hawerchuk (1x 2nd place) and Tavares (2x 3rd place)
-Top-10 point finishes: Hawerchuk (3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th) and Tavares (2nd and 7th)
-both played exactly 9 seasons with their original teams and 5 as captain (Hawerchuk shared captaincy with 2 other players for a 6th season)
-Hawerchuk's departure to new team resulted in move down depth chart (behind Pat LaFontaine when he was healthy) like Tavares behind Auston Matthews
-no Stanley Cups (Tavares TBD)

Tavares skews more towards goal scoring than playmaking compared to Hawerchuk, however.

Not a horrible comparison in terms of level. Hawerchuk was less hyped as a youngster but I think better as an NHL player, just imho.

 

[Henry Miller]

Hard player to pin down. A sort of yeoman like career. Not quite what I’d call a bad team scorer but I don’t think he could have been THE guy on a contender. Like others have said, a disappointment compared to his hype in juniors. I think it will be hard to keep him out of the HoF unless he crashes and burns. A lot of these guys who don’t seem intriguing now will be seen through nostalgia tinted glasses in a decade or so post retirement

 

[The Macho King]

Hard player to pin down. A sort of yeoman like career. Not quite what I’d call a bad team scorer but I don’t think he could have been THE guy on a contender. Like others have said, a disappointment compared to his hype in juniors. I think it will be hard to keep him out of the HoF unless he crashes and burns. A lot of these guys who don’t seem intriguing now will be seen through nostalgia tinted glasses in a decade or so post retirement

Tavares' problem vis a vis reputation is he has one fan base that hates him for how he left, and another that is underwhelmed because he came in and became their fourth best forward for a league high salary. No one really loves him.

Idk he's kind of an interesting case in that regard.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Tavares' problem vis a vis reputation is he has one fan base that hates him for how he left, and another that is underwhelmed because he came in and became their fourth best forward for a league high salary. No one really loves him.

Idk he's kind of an interesting case in that regard.

I actually notice a lot of players that have what feels like HHOF-ish careers compared to others that are in but aren't themselves are players that fall into that "nobody really pulling for them" factor, often because they changed teams a lot.

 

[decma]

There are some similarities between Tavares and Pierre Turgeon. ... Both players had a lot of years as the 11th to 30th best scorer in the NHL. Both seemed content having (essentially) zero defensive responsibilities, playing with zero physicality, racking up points in the regular season, and in their 30's, letting another star centre take the heat (Modano/Sakic and Matthews).

...

I think Turgeon was a slightly better player (he was more skilled, and some badly timed injuries robbed him of several top ten scoring finishes).

Yes, the injuries did rob Turgeon of some top 10 seasons. He was top 10 in points per game five times, vs. three times for Tavares.

Another difference is they became #2 centers at very different ages. Turgeon was 32 when he went to Dallas as the #2 behind Modano. Tavares was 28 when he went to Toronto. He was arguably the #1 that first season, but was the #2 behind Matthews the following season, at 29.


Re Tavares' draft-2 season, given his Sept 20 birthday and that season being his 2nd in the OHL due to having been gratned exceptional status, that season was more like a draft-1 season than a draft-2 season.

2.0 points per game in a draft-1 season is still very good, but not so strong that one would consider the subsequent career he has had as a disappointment.

If he were born a week earlier he would have been in the 08 draft and likely would have been taken 2nd.

 

[Boxscore]

The crazy thing with Tavares is this -- say all the balls bounce right for the Leafs this year and they win a Cup and Tavares scores a couple big OT goals -- does that drastically change his legacy?

 

[MadLuke]

The crazy thing with Tavares is this -- say all the balls bounce right for the Leafs this year and they win a Cup and Tavares scores a couple big OT goals -- does that drastically change his legacy?

Scoring big OT goals in the first Leafs Cup since the 06 ended would drastically change his legacy for sure, it could be his defining moment.

Desjardins-Leclair 1993 playoff moments follow them to this day, Matteau goal for the Rangers, Yzerman overtime goals and he did not even won the cup that year.

Carbonneau mentionning that McSorley stick was a bit strange his part of is legacy, playoff big game and cups create legends and legendary moments.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If he were born a week earlier he would have been in the 08 draft and likely would have been taken 2nd.

No question in my eyes he goes ahead of Stamkos. If he was a draft year baby that only helps from a "hype" standpoint.

The crazy thing with Tavares is this -- say all the balls bounce right for the Leafs this year and they win a Cup and Tavares scores a couple big OT goals -- does that drastically change his legacy?

Yes, but you could say that for anyone. It being the Leafs helps in terms of fan support/media coverage, but from an objective standpoint, shouldn't matter compared to any player for any team.

 

[Stephen]

Yes, the injuries did rob Turgeon of some top 10 seasons. He was top 10 in points per game five times, vs. three times for Tavares.

Another difference is they became #2 centers at very different ages. Turgeon was 32 when he went to Dallas as the #2 behind Modano. Tavares was 28 when he went to Toronto. He was arguably the #1 that first season, but was the #2 behind Matthews the following season, at 29.


Re Tavares' draft-2 season, given his Sept 20 birthday and that season being his 2nd in the OHL due to having been gratned exceptional status, that season was more like a draft-1 season than a draft-2 season.

2.0 points per game in a draft-1 season is still very good, but not so strong that one would consider the subsequent career he has had as a disappointment.

If he were born a week earlier he would have been in the 08 draft and likely would have been taken 2nd.

Tavares likely would have been taken first in the 2008 draft ahead of Steven Stamkos.

For me, Tavares has a lot of similarities to Sidney Crosby, who was clearly an role model for him, but knock off several percentage points in almost every facet, particularly playmaking vision and clean puck distribution. In fact he can be a real tunnel vision player. He's also a bit unusual in that he plays such a grinding, in-close quarters kind of down low game but personality-wise brings so little natural heat to the game. He's an odd mix of being very determined but not passionate.

Like people say, he's a bit of a Pierre Turgeon in that respect, who was also a big time scoring first overall pick, but was very much overshadowed by the guys drafted first overall around him.