FlameChampion
Registered User
- Jul 13, 2011
- 13,653
- 15,279
I like Maroon. I think I would be ok with a 3X3 deal. I would take him at 3-4mil over Lucic's 6mil every day of the week.
The game has changed to more speed/skill. Having both Lucic and Maroon locked into your LW is potentially really pigeon holing your team. Maroon's productivity away from McDavid is also concerning. Even though he has shown good chemistry with McDavid, I think you have to treat him as 3rd line player who has fairly high probability of declining. When you look at players of similar age and similar skill set, there is a high chance Maroon is going to be less and less productive as the years go on (I would be very concerned of giving him more than 3 years - I think even 3 is probably too much).
Maroon was great last year and he has been decent this year. When you look at typical player regressions, theres a high probability that Maroon is just going to keep going down production wise.
That being said, the Oilers need more NHL legit wingers, not less. And probably the biggest problem is if you trade Maroon, who do you replace him with? They have nothing in the farm system in terms of LW. They are going to have to pick up someone from UFA or trade. There is risk in who they pick up. Will that player make as much money or more than just signing Maroon? Will management actually target someone who fits in better with Edmonton than Maroon does currently? Every UFA period we see teams make bad decisions betting on guys (including the Oilers).
Other side of the coin is should we be targeting someone better to play with McDavid than Maroon and use whatever money you're going to pay Maroon for this player? I think this is a smart idea, but its easy to say in theory and harder to pull off in reality. But what if they sign Maroon to a 3-4 year deal, and someone comes in a year or two whos better with McDavid. Then what do you do with Maroon,? who hasnt shown to really produce without McDavid. Signing Maroon doesnt offer much in roster flexibility. If they can sign Maroon to a lower term and money, it gives them more flexibilty. I dont expect Maroon to take a discount nor should he, when none of the previous signings have. This is probably his last real chance at getting himself a good deal. But I think management does need to try and sell Maroon on having the opportunity to play with a star player that hes not going to get anywhere else, and management should be strongarming him to get the best deal for the Oilers (but they havent shown this ability in the latest few signings so I dont expect them to start now).
It should be noted that not everyone has shown the ability to play with McDavid and we should just not assume that anyone can do it. We have seen this over many years with Crosby. Even if the Oilers were to go out and get Hoffman, Pacorietty, etc, it doesnt mean they are going to click with McDavid because they are a better player than Maroon.
I think the proper move is to probably trade him at this point. There are advantages and risks to signing him but I think the risks outweigh the advantages from a pure logic point of view. I dont think the proper way to manage is by the fear of making a mistake (at least in this case). Even though I think the proper move is to trade him, I dont feel too confident in management replacing him with a more useful player and they certainly cant count on depth from the AHL level. It is a difficult decision though (or it might not be if he wants too much money).
The game has changed to more speed/skill. Having both Lucic and Maroon locked into your LW is potentially really pigeon holing your team. Maroon's productivity away from McDavid is also concerning. Even though he has shown good chemistry with McDavid, I think you have to treat him as 3rd line player who has fairly high probability of declining. When you look at players of similar age and similar skill set, there is a high chance Maroon is going to be less and less productive as the years go on (I would be very concerned of giving him more than 3 years - I think even 3 is probably too much).
Maroon was great last year and he has been decent this year. When you look at typical player regressions, theres a high probability that Maroon is just going to keep going down production wise.
That being said, the Oilers need more NHL legit wingers, not less. And probably the biggest problem is if you trade Maroon, who do you replace him with? They have nothing in the farm system in terms of LW. They are going to have to pick up someone from UFA or trade. There is risk in who they pick up. Will that player make as much money or more than just signing Maroon? Will management actually target someone who fits in better with Edmonton than Maroon does currently? Every UFA period we see teams make bad decisions betting on guys (including the Oilers).
Other side of the coin is should we be targeting someone better to play with McDavid than Maroon and use whatever money you're going to pay Maroon for this player? I think this is a smart idea, but its easy to say in theory and harder to pull off in reality. But what if they sign Maroon to a 3-4 year deal, and someone comes in a year or two whos better with McDavid. Then what do you do with Maroon,? who hasnt shown to really produce without McDavid. Signing Maroon doesnt offer much in roster flexibility. If they can sign Maroon to a lower term and money, it gives them more flexibilty. I dont expect Maroon to take a discount nor should he, when none of the previous signings have. This is probably his last real chance at getting himself a good deal. But I think management does need to try and sell Maroon on having the opportunity to play with a star player that hes not going to get anywhere else, and management should be strongarming him to get the best deal for the Oilers (but they havent shown this ability in the latest few signings so I dont expect them to start now).
It should be noted that not everyone has shown the ability to play with McDavid and we should just not assume that anyone can do it. We have seen this over many years with Crosby. Even if the Oilers were to go out and get Hoffman, Pacorietty, etc, it doesnt mean they are going to click with McDavid because they are a better player than Maroon.
I think the proper move is to probably trade him at this point. There are advantages and risks to signing him but I think the risks outweigh the advantages from a pure logic point of view. I dont think the proper way to manage is by the fear of making a mistake (at least in this case). Even though I think the proper move is to trade him, I dont feel too confident in management replacing him with a more useful player and they certainly cant count on depth from the AHL level. It is a difficult decision though (or it might not be if he wants too much money).
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