Speculation: What do we do at/near the deadline if we are barely in or barely out of a playoff spot?

[PK Cronin]

At this point, do you think Lehner would agree to a 2 year deal? The guy is pretty much leading the league in sv %. We may have already missed the "extend at a discount" boat. With anything less than a 4 year deal, he may just prefer to see what happens 7/1.

We gave Greiss a 3 year deal when we extended him - can't see Lehner agreeing to anything less than that after he's hit (at least so far) on his "show me" deal.

I don't expect it, and I know every person is different with these kinds of things, but Lamoriello did give Lehner a job when nearly no other NHL team would. Seems like the Islanders were very supportive during his struggles and that could go a long way for Lehner, along with the stability of staying in one place and keeping the routine he's developed.

It's a business, so it may be wishful thinking, but I do think it's possible given his unique situation that he takes a discount, in term or dollars, to stay here.

 

[beach]

Did we not learn anything from the PJB saga? There has been plenty of time to get deals done with pending UFAs. If these guys are not signed by the trade deadline, Lou needs to trade their ass, whether the Isles are in or out of playoff position.

As per Eberle, if a good deal arises, I trade him right now.

The only guy I'd keep if unsigned by the deadline is Lehner, as he is the man that will be key in how far they go. The goalie is one of only two, so must be viewed differently.

 

[crasherino]

I don't expect it, and I know every person is different with these kinds of things, but Lamoriello did give Lehner a job when nearly no other NHL team would. Seems like the Islanders were very supportive during his struggles and that could go a long way for Lehner, along with the stability of staying in one place and keeping the routine he's developed.

It's a business, so it may be wishful thinking, but I do think it's possible given his unique situation that he takes a discount, in term or dollars, to stay here.

I think that's fair. But discounts are usually 90 cents on the dollar. Not 50%. I'm guessing his preference would be to stay here considering the support and success he's had (obviously I have no idea whether he truly likes it, but we never have that insight), but it has to make sense for him. If the Islanders are offering a 2 year deal at $4m AAV and his agent is telling him he can get legitimately get a 5 year/$25m deal somewhere in FA, I can't imagine him taking our 2 year deal. As much as he may appreciate the Islanders taking that risk on him, he's got to get paid this offseason. Who knows what will happen going forward? For all I know, a long term deal may not be offered to him based on his past. If that's the case, the Islanders could be in a good spot.

Lehner's success is really making this goalie situation a complicated one for Lou. We have his desire to have a true #1 goalie. We have this high end prospect who's never actually played in North America who would likely need to have a real opening to come over....and we have Lehner who is actually performing - in the short term at least - like a true #1 goalie. Good problems to have but a lot of pitfalls to navigate.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I guess you missed where I wrote that there are probably 4 teams for 2 spots. Those teams would probably be Buffalo, Montreal, and Carolina. Even if we were 3 points out I don't see how with 20 games left it makes that big of a difference, but if you say so.

Also, if you don't like the poll or thread you can see your way out. Nobody here with a gun forcing you to reply.

Relax man. I can conversely tell you that if you can't take criticism, don't post here. I actually think this is a neat topic to discuss but think it could have been framed differently.

I agree that there will probably be 4 teams or so fighting for the last two spots. Let's say a week before the trade deadline the standings are like this:

WC1: Isles 88 points
WC2: MTL 87 points
9th: BUF 85 points
10th: CAR 83 points

In that scenario, I say no way do you sell.

However, if it looked like this:

WC1: MTL 88 points
WC2: BUF 87 points
9th: CAR 85 points
10th: Isles 84 points

Then you seriously consider selling. Three points in or three points out can be a HUGE difference. Even if there are "only" 4 teams in the race it is difficult to climb in the standings.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

If these guys are not signed by the trade deadline, Lou needs to trade their ass, whether the Isles are in or out of playoff position.

How many GM's have traded their UFA's at the deadline when firmly in a playoff spot? And what if the Isles are 2nd in the division trailing the first place Caps by only one or two points? Do you seriously sell?

 

[seafoam]

Relax man. I can conversely tell you that if you can't take criticism, don't post here. I actually think this is a neat topic to discuss but think it could have been framed differently.

I agree that there will probably be 4 teams or so fighting for the last two spots. Let's say a week before the trade deadline the standings are like this:

WC1: Isles 88 points
WC2: MTL 87 points
9th: BUF 85 points
10th: CAR 83 points

In that scenario, I say no way do you sell.

However, if it looked like this:

WC1: MTL 88 points
WC2: BUF 87 points
9th: CAR 85 points
10th: Isles 84 points

Then you seriously consider selling. Three points in or three points out can be a HUGE difference. Even if there are "only" 4 teams in the race it is difficult to climb in the standings.

It’s taken at the very minimum 94 points to make the playoffs over the last two years. Not sure if your numbers were supposed to be accurate or not.

I’m not even sure if I care what direction Lou goes in, but what I do care about is him making a decision to either sell UFAs or add small pieces that are not going to cost 1st/2nd/top prospect.

Snow spent too many years not picking a direction to go in and it burned him in the long run. Making the playoffs may become useful July 1st when they’re trying to pitch Panarin and Duchene to join forces.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

It’s taken at the very minimum 94 points to make the playoffs over the last two years. Not sure if your numbers were supposed to be accurate or not.

The actual points themselves are irrelevant. I guestimated what they may be at the end of February. There would be 20 or so games left so mid/high 90's would probably get you in in my hypothetical scenario...

 

[ziggy7716]

I think Eberle may be traded regardless of playoff position of the Isles at the time of the deadline. Nelson and Lee are both absolutely staying if they are in playoffs or only out by a point or two. Same with Filppula as he has a NMC anyway.

I think Lou is going to make a pitch for Matt Duchene and I fully condone it.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I’m not even sure if I care what direction Lou goes in, but what I do care about is him making a decision to either sell UFAs or add small pieces that are not going to cost 1st/2nd/top prospect.

Snow spent too many years not picking a direction to go in and it burned him in the long run. Making the playoffs may become useful July 1st when they’re trying to pitch Panarin and Duchene to join forces.

I agree with this. I think Snow was ultra conservative at most deadlines. Of course you can't force a trade if there isn't one out there that makes sense.

But the worst thing we can do at the deadline is to trade top picks/prospects for a rental. As you said, add small pieces (if we're buying).

 

[IslesFanatic]

Pretty sure Filpulla has a NMC.

 

[ziggy7716]

I agree with this. I think Snow was ultra conservative at most deadlines. Of course you can't force a trade if there isn't one out there that makes sense.

But the worst thing we can do at the deadline is to trade top picks/prospects for a rental. As you said, add small pieces (if we're buying).

Small pieces doesn't accomplish anything. That is what Snow did with moves like Prince, Kennedy etc. Don't even waste your time with that. We have enough prospects and young players between Aho, Vande Sompel, Wotherspoon, Wilde, Dobson, Bellows, Ho-Sang, Dal Colle, Koivula, Wahlstrom, Cockerill etc that we can afford to make a big splash. Especially if we are contending for a top 3 spot in the Metro. As long as the cost is reasonable I go for Duchene. Having Barzal-Duchene-Nelson/Filppula-Cizikas down the middle we can compete in a 7 game series with a Toronto, Washington, Tampa. With Nelson as our 2nd line center we can not.

 

[saintunspecified]

Here's my wishlist. My view is NYI need to make an acquisition that doesn't cost a first round pick, and I think his cost is going to significantly exceed 1 first. That's why Matt Duchene he isn't on the list. I just don't like our chances that much.

One of:
1. Eric Staal (unlikely, I know)
2. Ryan Dzingel
3. Jacob Silfverberg (not a perfect fit)
4. Marcus Johannson (definitely a fit if he is healthy, but health is a risk)

I wouldn't mind Matts Zuccarello either (with Eberle going), but that'll never fly.

Then maybe a 4th line forward who can PK to drop in instead of Martin when necessary. Someone of the Brian Boyle type.

In a perfect world I'd want to add Dzingel and Zuccarello while flipping Eberle. Would love to sign Dzingel long term.

Tito-Barzal-Bailey
Lee-Nelson-Zuccarello
Dzingel-Filppula-Komorov
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck

I think this would be a pretty formidable forward group. Of course it will never happen, but it'd make for a fun spring.

 

[SCMURRAY]

Lee stays without a doubt. Nelson stays whether we're in or out unless we completely tank to the bottom of the league then I could see him being moved for a late 1st. Eberle i think goes in any scenario. Ho-sang has played well enough to take his spot in top 6.

 

[MJF]

I don't expect it, and I know every person is different with these kinds of things, but Lamoriello did give Lehner a job when nearly no other NHL team would. Seems like the Islanders were very supportive during his struggles and that could go a long way for Lehner, along with the stability of staying in one place and keeping the routine he's developed.

It's a business, so it may be wishful thinking, but I do think it's possible given his unique situation that he takes a discount, in term or dollars, to stay here.

Not that I expect Lehner not to look out for his financial best interests first, but given his off ice issues if he feels he has a great support system with the Islanders and living in this area he may decide a few less dollars is worth it in stability.

 

[ziggy7716]

Here's my wishlist. My view is NYI need to make an acquisition that doesn't cost a first round pick, and I think his cost is going to significantly exceed 1 first. That's why Matt Duchene he isn't on the list. I just don't like our chances that much.

One of:
1. Eric Staal (unlikely, I know)
2. Ryan Dzingel
3. Jacob Silfverberg (not a perfect fit)
4. Marcus Johannson (definitely a fit if he is healthy, but health is a risk)

I wouldn't mind Matts Zuccarello either (with Eberle going), but that'll never fly.

Then maybe a 4th line forward who can PK to drop in instead of Martin when necessary. Someone of the Brian Boyle type.

In a perfect world I'd want to add Dzingel and Zuccarello while flipping Eberle. Would love to sign Dzingel long term.

Tito-Barzal-Bailey
Lee-Nelson-Zuccarello
Dzingel-Filppula-Komorov
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck

I think this would be a pretty formidable forward group. Of course it will never happen, but it'd make for a fun spring.

Zuccarello is having a pretty poor year. Not sure I have any interest in him. Would rather just keep Eberle at that point. I like the idea of Dzingel. My first target is Duchene. I offer Aho, MDC and 2019 1st

 

[saintunspecified]

Zuccarello is having a pretty poor year. Not sure I have any interest in him. Would rather just keep Eberle at that point. I like the idea of Dzingel. My first target is Duchene. I offer Aho, MDC and 2019 1st

Veterans like Zuccarello who are traded to a contending team playing in the right role with good players often get a boost. Guy has both spirit and attention to detail. He'd fit.

 

[WagnerGrad96]

I think Eberle may be traded regardless of playoff position of the Isles at the time of the deadline. Nelson and Lee are both absolutely staying if they are in playoffs or only out by a point or two. Same with Filppula as he has a NMC anyway.

I think Lou is going to make a pitch for Matt Duchene and I fully condone it.

Obviously it will take much more than just Eberle to get Duchene.

 

[ziggy7716]

Obviously it will take much more than just Eberle to get Duchene.

I know that. If Eberle gets traded it would be in a totally different trade. He has nothing to do with getting Duchene

 

[Poliz24]

Think it is still a little too early to determine whether to make a move or not. It is the beginning of January maybe we should wait until the beginning/middle of next month to see. Alot can happen between now and the trade deadline.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Id trade Eberle and keep everyone else.

Of all the potential UFA’s, Eberle is the best combination of potential return and replaceability

 

[saintunspecified]

Snow spent too many years not picking a direction to go in and it burned him in the long run. Making the playoffs may become useful July 1st when they’re trying to pitch Panarin and Duchene to join forces.

I disagree with this. The only NYI were significantly burnt by was failing to trade Tavares (should have been done the previous offseason). All the other stuff people endlessly complained about (not dealing one of Okposo or Nielsen) was no big deal. As if Riley Tufte or Max Jones or some similar such player drafted with a late first would have become a difference maker for us.

In the past the cost of deadline was flat with "big" and small pieces receiving similar value, and the only pieces NYI had to sell were big pieces. If by "not picking a direction" you mean handling the Tavares situation fine. But I think it's become totally clear that Snow's main problem was hiring BS inexperienced and unqualified coaches, not what he did at the deadline.

 

[PK Cronin]

I never minded the Prince type trades, because it is NHL depth. The chances a 3rd or 5th rounder makes it as an NHLer is so remote that I don't really care about the pick too much. An issue I did have was when they'd take whatever piece was traded for and then plugged it on the top line like they're somehow going to become a legit first liner. Not everything Snow & Co. did was bad, but they'd always take two steps back whenever they took a single step forward.

 

[IslesNorway]

With no 3rd or 4th rounder in this draft, chances are the Islanders either make a bigger splash or do nothing at all if they are not sellers.

If they can package a roster player ( Eberle, Hickey, Nelson, Pelech) in a bigger package that might well be the way to go

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Small pieces doesn't accomplish anything. That is what Snow did with moves like Prince, Kennedy etc. Don't even waste your time with that. We have enough prospects and young players between Aho, Vande Sompel, Wotherspoon, Wilde, Dobson, Bellows, Ho-Sang, Dal Colle, Koivula, Wahlstrom, Cockerill etc that we can afford to make a big splash. Especially if we are contending for a top 3 spot in the Metro. As long as the cost is reasonable I go for Duchene. Having Barzal-Duchene-Nelson/Filppula-Cizikas down the middle we can compete in a 7 game series with a Toronto, Washington, Tampa. With Nelson as our 2nd line center we can not.

I'd have to be convinced that we can make a cup run before I part with a Bellows or a #1 pick. This is supposed to be an "evaluation" year. I'm usually all for trying to go for the big fish at the deadline if the team is playoff bound but not sure it makes sense with this team.

 

[The Real JT]

Veterans like Zuccarello who are traded to a contending team playing in the right role with good players often get a boost. Guy has both spirit and attention to detail. He'd fit.

As a lifelong Rags hater, I have to admit that Zuccarello is on the short list of their players that I admire and covet. This is not the best analogy but his combination of skill, grit and drive remind me a little bit of Goring and Tonelli. For those of us who remember Butchie the player, he was the catalyst that propelled the Isles to their Cup runs. Maybe, Zucc could be a poor man's Goring but that's probably wishful thinking. He's been a bit banged up this year and is getting older but one would think he had several good years left in the tank. On the downside, he's been good but not quite the same since his head injury a couple of years ago. Of course, he's an UFA at the end of the year but I think if he has a positive experience here for the playoff push, I can see him singing here in the offseason since he has some local ties.

Here's my proposal:
From Rags: Zuccarello
Isles send: Eberle (Rags can flip him) + Flames #2 pick this year or one of MVS/Wotherspoon.