Speculation: What changes should be made for this team to be successful?

[Govechkin]

Getting back on track

In both senses of the term.

Oates handedness thing sounded good on paper, more opportunities to shoot on the rush and pinch on the walls. Problem is, as we saw last week, a collapsing umbrella on D starting at the blue line is very tough to break. They have two guys outside deep that will cut off the charge up the boards, and the chip and chase is interfered with right after the dump. It keeps shots to the outside and limits rebound attempts, as the defender has body position to keep the charging Cap from bodying up on the puck on their forehand.

Easy to see, hard to solve, right? We've been watching this handedness thing for so long we forget what it might look like to, you know, radically change the line combos.

We have a logjam at RW, and a lack on LW, correct?
Ward out, Laich out, Green out, Erskine out. Hope Brown or Latta makes a move for line 4.

Next year:
Kuzy-Grabo-OV
Penner-Backstrom-Brouwer
Chimmer-Mojo-Wilson
Whole Lotta-UFA that wins draws-Fehr

Split up Carlzner, Sign a real top-4 LD that plays D, make the youngens fight for a spot with Orlov.

Bonus of that fourth line is Fehr can shoot off the faceoff, OV can pull double duty as 4LW on set plays/desperation time, and that second line is a little more average in speed, so they can keep up/slow each other down. Chimmer and Mojo had some chemistry at some point, right? Could see Wilson bump some people/minutes.

New coach, new management, we can spend some money on line 4 if we ship out Laich and Ward, and plenty more on the back end for some real D and depth.

Anyone want to run the cap numbers? I'm not a smart man...

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

That's an ignorant undervalue of Mike Green. Top puck moving defensemen don't grow on trees and especially ones who have quarterbacked a successful PP most of their career. Oates and Calle don't know how to coach Green and even Hunter didn't know how to coach Green. BB knew what Green was going to give to the team and structured a game plan for Green that worked. If Green became available there would be teams calling about him and not for the price of a 2nd round pick. Andrew MacDonald got the Islanders a 2nd and 3rd round pick and a C prospect.

I honestly don't know. When was the last time a player with a $6+ million cap hit was traded with a year left and what did he return?

Gaborik? He returned Brassard and he was coming off a 40 goal season.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Penner is a goner IMO. He's shown nothing worth being asked back...

 

[FloridaCap]

Penner is a goner IMO. He's shown nothing worth being asked back...

Has he gotten a chance?

He's a guy that needs to be the greaser on a line of skilled forwards. Instead he's playing with Brouwer, who is similar.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I honestly don't know. When was the last time a player with a $6+ million cap hit was traded with a year left and what did he return?

Gaborik? He returned Brassard and he was coming off a 40 goal season.

And Mike Green is coming off a shortened season where he led the NHL in goals despite missing 7 games more than his closest competition. He's a RECENT league-leading goal scorer for his position.

He's 22nd in the league right now and a few goals moves him into the top 10. He's right there despite struggling badly. I've got to believe there are teams that covet that kind of skillset. Wideman is a perfect example of how that skillset is demand.

Your trade prerequisites are almost impossible to find for the few recent years I looked at (skimmed the lists, not in-depth analysis).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Has he gotten a chance?

He's a guy that needs to be the greaser on a line of skilled forwards. Instead he's playing with Brouwer, who is similar.

Just saying I'm not wowed. I remember this guy in his prime...that player seems LONG gone.

 

[BTCG]

Do you understand the difference between equivalency and comparison?

I just had to log-in to help you.

I'd suggest Paul Coffey & Keith Primeau for Brendan Shanahan. That one sure worked out.... even giving up a #1 pick. When Shanny left, it was with 3 rings.

 

[malyk]

So I was curious to try and see how the Caps players ranked in Corsi For and Corsi For Relative compared to the rest of the league at 5 on 5. It's not a perfect comparison by any means, but the data comes from extra skater with the games played threshold set to 50% of the season ranked by corsi for rel. They have some players in the wrong positions (Ovi at left wing, for example or where did Penner play in Anaheim?) so I've tried to swap the players around to the correct side. I also only looked at the top 90 forwards (30 teams x top 3 players at a position) and the top 180 defense (30 x 3 x 2 to get the top 6 at the position).

Player|Position|Rank|Corsi For|Corsi For Rel
Marcus Johansson|LW|48|49.2%|+0.7%
Jason Chimera|LW|67|47.1%|-2.1%
Brooks Laich|LW|69|48.3%|-2.4%
Mikhail Grabovski|C|27|51.8%|+3.4%
Nicklas Backstrom|C|38|50.4%|+2.5%
Dustin Penner|RW|20|50.7%|+3.1%
Alex Ovechkin|RW|21|50.7%|+3.0%
Troy Brower|RW|47|48.9%|+0.4%
Joel Ward|RW|67|47.6%|-1.4%
Tom Wilson|RW|75|46.2%|-2.8%
Eric Fehr|???|Depends|50.2%|+1.9%
Dmitri Orlov|LD|3|52.9%|+7.9%
Mike Green|RD|14|52.5%|+5.2%
Karl Alzner|LD|112|47.9%|-1.1%
John Carlson|RD|120|47.9%|-1.4%
Steve Oleksy|RD|122|46.6%|-1.4%
John Erskine|LD|180|45.5%|-4.8%

Some quick analysis by position just based on those stats.
LW - If MJ is a winger and not a center he's playing a line too high on the roster. Maybe Kuz displaces him next year and drops him to where he should be just based on the stats. Chimera and Brooks are both 3rd line players. In other words, chimera is playing where he should play. Brooks is...who knows. A Chimera-Laich-Ward line makes sense based on where they rank among forwards as a good solid third line.

C - Two solid top line centers and then nothing unless you count brooks or fehr as centers. Not much else to say (beagle is ranked down at 148th or so iirc). Moving brooks to center the third line would seem to make sense in light of this too.

RW - Really good depth on the right side, but we knew that. Ovi is obviously a top line player. Brouwer is a middle of the pack second line performer, ward is a higher end third line guy, and wilson is a middle of the pack 4th liner. I doubt penner will be around next year (and the comments by GMGM about clearing cap space seem to indicate that), so whether he is a LW or RW doesn't matter all that much for the team going forward...but he does push the puck up the ice it seems.

D - Orlov and Green are actually a solid pair as far as generating offense goes. Defense is a little more questionable. So the Caps have 2 guys that are top pair offensive guys and then a pair of bottom end second pair guys...at least as far as corsi goes. Steve Oleksy actually qualifies in games played and ranks as a high end 3rd pairing guy. Erksine on the other hand is basically the worst 3rd pairing guy you would have. Nate Schmidt is just 4 games short of making the cut, but he's 50.6%/+3.1%.

The sample size for Kuz is only 2 games, so not really indicative of anything, but he's 60%/+5.9.

Given all of that madness, the lineup for next year, if everyone slotted in where they "should" based on their league wide rank at their position, would be something like:

Kuz - Backstrom - Ovechkin
Johansson - Grabovski - Brouwer
Chimera - Laich - Ward
??? - Latta - Wilson

Alzner - Green
Orlov - Carlson
Schmidt - Oleksy

You'd need to figure out what to do with Eric Fehr. His possession stats are pretty strong and they have been every year he's played for the caps. I'd probably trade Brouwer and put Fehr on the second line right wing and let him do his thing there.

I'd mix up the top two pairs of defenseman to try and match styles a little better. Green with a steadier defender in Alzner and the Orlov with a steadier defender in Carlson. That should maximize green and Orlov's contribution (Carlson is lost in the shuffle a little...they'd have to figure out how that pair should play together). They'd also get a much stronger 3rd pair by sitting Erskine and letting Carrick gain some muscle mass in Hershey.

So really, not a lot of surprises when you look at the stats, but I wanted to really see how the players ranked against the rest of the league. You've got a few players playing above where they should based on rank in the forward corps and a third pair of D that shouldn't be on the ice when the better players are in Hershey.

Hard to win when you don't ice the best team you can regardless of the systems you employ!

 

[Halpysback*]

Should have gone after Sekera and Perron in the offseason when they were available cheaply. Johansson + 3rd for Perron and the Burakovsky 1st for Sekera and this is a far, far better team.

For next year

Resign Penner as playoff ammunition (he steps up more than 90% of nhl players in the playoffs, that's valuable).

Sign Jagr to mentor Kuz, Ovechkin, everybody. I don't care about past history or if Jagr is done. He has a ton of experience they need to suck from him.

Sign Malhotra for the 4th line.

Sign Goc or Bolland for the 3rd line.

One of Grabo/Stastny/Legwand to play with Ovechkin

Oates, Calle, Kolzig all gone.

Laich, Brouwer cashed in for assets used to get reliable top 4 D. Say Laich for Smid, Brouwer for Gunnarsson, add whatever fillers may be needed. Johansson moved out too.

Ovechkin G/S/L Wilson/Jagr
Kuznetsov Backstrom Jagr/Wilson
Penner Goc/Bolland Ward
Chimera Malhotra Latta

Alzner Green
Gunnarsson Carlson
Smid Orlov

Holtby
Grubauer

At the deadline work on getting Jagr insurance, replacing/upgrading Green and getting a proven G if the new goalie coach can't fix lolby.

 

[Calicaps]

Should have gone after Sekera and Perron in the offseason when they were available cheaply. Johansson + 3rd for Perron and the Burakovsky 1st for Sekera and this is a far, far better team.

For next year

Resign Penner as playoff ammunition (he steps up more than 90% of nhl players in the playoffs, that's valuable).

Sign Jagr to mentor Kuz, Ovechkin, everybody. I don't care about past history or if Jagr is done. He has a ton of experience they need to suck from him.

Sign Malhotra for the 4th line.

Sign Goc or Bolland for the 3rd line.

One of Grabo/Stastny/Legwand to play with Ovechkin

Oates, Calle, Kolzig all gone.

Laich, Brouwer cashed in for assets used to get reliable top 4 D. Say Laich for Smid, Brouwer for Gunnarsson, add whatever fillers may be needed. Johansson moved out too.

Ovechkin G/S/L Wilson/Jagr
Kuznetsov Backstrom Jagr/Wilson
Penner Goc/Bolland Ward
Chimera Malhotra Latta

Alzner Green
Gunnarsson Carlson
Smid Orlov

Holtby
Grubauer

At the deadline work on getting Jagr insurance, replacing/upgrading Green and getting a proven G if the new goalie coach can't fix lolby.

No No No on Jagr. He's a collosal dick. Not because of his history with this club, but because he just is. He's not a mentor. That's why he's been nothing but a gun for hire since coming back to the league.

 

[Brian23]

Should have gone after Sekera and Perron in the offseason when they were available cheaply. Johansson + 3rd for Perron and the Burakovsky 1st for Sekera and this is a far, far better team.

For next year

Resign Penner as playoff ammunition (he steps up more than 90% of nhl players in the playoffs, that's valuable).

Sign Jagr to mentor Kuz, Ovechkin, everybody. I don't care about past history or if Jagr is done. He has a ton of experience they need to suck from him.

Sign Malhotra for the 4th line.

Sign Goc or Bolland for the 3rd line.

One of Grabo/Stastny/Legwand to play with Ovechkin

Oates, Calle, Kolzig all gone.

Laich, Brouwer cashed in for assets used to get reliable top 4 D. Say Laich for Smid, Brouwer for Gunnarsson, add whatever fillers may be needed. Johansson moved out too.

Ovechkin G/S/L Wilson/Jagr
Kuznetsov Backstrom Jagr/Wilson
Penner Goc/Bolland Ward
Chimera Malhotra Latta

Alzner Green
Gunnarsson Carlson
Smid Orlov

Holtby
Grubauer

At the deadline work on getting Jagr insurance, replacing/upgrading Green and getting a proven G if the new goalie coach can't fix lolby.

I'm so torn because there's solid ideas mixed in with probably the dumbest ideas I've ever seen in here. :/

 

[Halpysback*]

No No No on Jagr. He's a collosal dick. Not because of his history with this club, but because he just is. He's not a mentor. That's why he's been nothing but a gun for hire since coming back to the league.

He's arguably the most fit guy in the league, helped Voracek develop a ton and has become probably the best single mentor in the league by all accounts, at least as far as fitness, discipline and hockey situations are concerned. Yeah he was/maybe is a dick. So is Ovechkin. So are most players of that caliber.

People need to get over themselves. If you want a team of Nice Guys then don't be sad when they get flushed every spring. Any avenue towards winning the cup should be taken. The organization getting its unfounded ego caved in would be a good step in the right direction.

Want to get revenge on Jagr? Bring him in, make him feel at home, have him take Kuznetsov on midnight skates and teach Ovechkin how to take care of his body. Boom, you just played him by getting long lasting organizational value from him. I'd say bring Gill in as a 7th D as well if he wasn't completely done.

 

[Calicaps]

He's arguably the most fit guy in the league, helped Voracek develop a ton and has become probably the best single mentor in the league by all accounts, at least as far as fitness, discipline and hockey situations are concerned. Yeah he was/maybe is a dick. So is Ovechkin. So are most players of that caliber.

People need to get over themselves. If you want a team of Nice Guys then don't be sad when they get flushed every spring. Any avenue towards winning the cup should be taken. The organization getting its unfounded ego caved in would be a good step in the right direction.

Want to get revenge on Jagr? Bring him in, make him feel at home, have him take Kuznetsov on midnight skates and teach Ovechkin how to take care of his body. Boom, you just played him by getting long lasting organizational value from him. I'd say bring Gill in as a 7th D as well if he wasn't completely done.

Maybe. This isn't about wanting a bunch of nice guys. This is about what it means to be a mentor. I don't buy that Jagr is that. I could be wrong. But I'm not convinced.

Also, I doubt Ted is willing to give 68 another dime of his money, so forget it.

 

[Zorak]

Wow, I'm the only one that voted for Holtby. I think he can be a good trading chip, and Grubby should be ready to backup Halak next season.

I mean - we need to trade something to get something back, and it's either Holtby or MJ90.

Also, it's a little strange that Calle is leading Oates by only one vote(mine, actually). Oates did a lot of great things with this team, while Calle just looks and sounds like a clown. And his results are on the same clownish level, so I expected him and Makfi to be runaway leaders.

 

[Halpysback*]

Maybe. This isn't about wanting a bunch of nice guys. This is about what it means to be a mentor. I don't buy that Jagr is that. I could be wrong. But I'm not convinced.

Also, I doubt Ted is willing to give 68 another dime of his money, so forget it.

Philadelphia, Dallas, Boston and New Jersey all have pretty high opinions of him. Those are more rigorous organizations than the caps.

He is in an amazing shape for a 43 year old, which you don't get without incredible discipline, helped out Voracek massively, helped out Seguin I believe. There are some mental/physical aspects of hockey that are second nature to him that no one else on the caps has. Fedorov when we brought him along was not a team player (bailed on Detroit then stunk in Columbus) yet he brought along the guys moreso than anyone since.

And yeah, Ted probably wouldn't do it. There's a lot of things that would bring us closer to a cup that Ted wouldn't do that more committed teams would. Hence no cup in our future under Ted. If you don't press every advantage you will lose to someone who does. The caps have so many asteriskes next to winning a cup *proper handedness *team of nice guys *ten year window *inexperienced D *inexperienced G *no veteran mentorship that they simply won't get there. Once you look at it from a results oriented perspective it becomes obvious.

Again, I have yet to see a single argument against going after Jagr that doesn't boil down to icky feels from spurned fans.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

High enough of an opinion that they traded him away....or just let him walk.

Screw 68. Worst idea all year.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Philadelphia, Dallas, Boston and New Jersey all have pretty high opinions of him. Those are more rigorous organizations than the caps.

He is in an amazing shape for a 43 year old, which you don't get without incredible discipline, helped out Voracek massively, helped out Seguin I believe. There are some mental/physical aspects of hockey that are second nature to him that no one else on the caps has. Fedorov when we brought him along was not a team player (bailed on Detroit then stunk in Columbus) yet he brought along the guys moreso than anyone since.

And yeah, Ted probably wouldn't do it. There's a lot of things that would bring us closer to a cup that Ted wouldn't do that more committed teams would. Hence no cup in our future under Ted. If you don't press every advantage you will lose to someone who does. The caps have so many asteriskes next to winning a cup *proper handedness *team of nice guys *ten year window *inexperienced D *inexperienced G *no veteran mentorship that they simply won't get there. Once you look at it from a results oriented perspective it becomes obvious.

Again, I have yet to see a single argument against going after Jagr that doesn't boil down to icky feels from spurned fans.

And yet none of those organizations resigned him.

Jagr and Voracek had virtually no time together during games, so do you have some info about what they did elsewhere to back up that assertion? Also worth noting Voracek's breakout year was after Jagr left. As for Seguin, he was traded to Dallas after Jagr left, so no dice there.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

And yet none of those organizations resigned him.

Jagr and Voracek had virtually no time together during games, so do you have some info about what they did elsewhere to back up that assertion? Also worth noting Voracek's breakout year was after Jagr left. As for Seguin, he was traded to Dallas after Jagr left, so no dice there.

Of course not...it's all part of the snake oil sales pitch.

I can't see bringing back the guy who previously quit on his team and the city causing us to go into the teardown in the first place....

 

[hb12xchamps]

And yet none of those organizations resigned him.

Jagr and Voracek had virtually no time together during games, so do you have some info about what they did elsewhere to back up that assertion? Also worth noting Voracek's breakout year was after Jagr left. As for Seguin, he was traded to Dallas after Jagr left, so no dice there.

I think with Seguin he meant when Jagr was traded to Boston.

I remember Flyers fans talking about Jagr helping some of their players off the ice in terms of fitness.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think with Seguin he meant when Jagr was traded to Boston.

I remember Flyers fans talking about Jagr helping some of their players off the ice in terms of fitness.

I'm sure Jagr has been a better teammate as he's aged, there's no doubt, otherwise NHL franchises would have told him to piss off and wouldn't keep giving him short shots. But let's be real, NOBODY wants him around for long...it's clear he's a hired gun and that's about it.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I'm sure Jagr has been a better teammate as he's aged, there's no doubt, otherwise NHL franchises would have told him to piss off and wouldn't keep giving him short shots. But let's be real, NOBODY wants him around for long...it's clear he's a hired gun and that's about it.

I wasn't saying it was a good idea just commenting that what he posted was indeed true. I think he resigns in NJ anyway with that group of veteran guys.

 

[Halpysback*]

And yet none of those organizations resigned him.

Jagr and Voracek had virtually no time together during games, so do you have some info about what they did elsewhere to back up that assertion? Also worth noting Voracek's breakout year was after Jagr left. As for Seguin, he was traded to Dallas after Jagr left, so no dice there.

Jagr brought Voracek on his midnight skates, Timonen said something along the lines of all guys huddled around Jagr during practices. Flyers fans know more about this.

The point is if we were serious about winning we'd use every avenue, such as bringing along a highly knowledgeable and disciplined vet (since that's the only way you still play at this level at 43). Instead we're crying over spilled milk from 10+ years ago. Yeah, it's Jagr's fault this team hasn't sniffed a cup, not the dysfunction, lack of discipline and lack of attention to detail from top to bottom of the organization.

I mean, he's good enough for Boston, good enough for Jersey, but clearly not good enough for what we have going on here. The pride of Ted and all the long suffering caps fans is just too precious to dent in any way, shape or form

No one is saying to ink him to a three year contract, just enough to bring Kuznetsov along and maybe set AO, Backstrom and everyone else straight. Fedorov did it and since then no one else has. Have yet to see what the actual consequences of bringing him in would be other than "we don't like him".

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Jagr brought Voracek on his midnight skates, Timonen said something along the lines of all guys huddled around Jagr during practices. Flyers fans know more about this.

The point is if we were serious about winning we'd use every avenue, such as bringing along a highly knowledgeable and disciplined vet (since that's the only way you still play at this level at 43). Instead we're crying over spilled milk from 10+ years ago. Yeah, it's Jagr's fault this team hasn't sniffed a cup, not the dysfunction, lack of discipline and lack of attention to detail from top to bottom of the organization.

I mean, he's good enough for Boston, good enough for Jersey, but clearly not good enough for what we have going on here. The pride of Ted and all the long suffering caps fans is just too precious to dent in any way, shape or form

No one is saying to ink him to a three year contract, just enough to bring Kuznetsov along and maybe set AO, Backstrom and everyone else straight. Fedorov did it and since then no one else has. Have yet to see what the actual consequences of bringing him in would be other than "we don't like him".

Fair enough, but realistically I can't really see a situation where he'd be brought in. If McPhee's still our GM on July 1, I think his history with Jagr would keep him from signing him, especially with a large portion of the fanbase calling for his head. If it's a new GM, it'd take a lot of balls to immediately bring in a guy who's still reviled by most of the fanbase.

The vet I'd love to bring in is Iginla. He's 36 and still producing - could be the new Knuble. Or we could spread out the talent and have two great lines:

XXX-Grabovski-Ovechkin
Kuznetsov-Backstrom-Iginla

Of course, with the franchise in disarray, who knows if Iginla or Jagr would even be interested in coming here.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Has Jagr ever worn a letter?

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

I feel so cool spending my Friday night on this. Anyway...

Brouwer and Johansson to Montreal for Gorges and Eller

Green to Detroit for a package of futures, maybe Ouellet and a 2nd, to follow the Ribeiro trade template

Orlov + 2nd to Tampa for Killorn

Trade Laich to a rebuilding team in western Canada for whatever you can get without taking back salary

Compliance Erskine

Resign Grabo for 3 years, 15M

Sign Iginla for 3 years, 15M

Sign Fayne for 4 years, 14M

Sign Weaver for 1 year, 1.1M

CapGeek won't give me a text roster, but the end result is this:

Killorn-Grabovski-Ovechkin
Kuznetsov-Backstrom-Iginla
Chimera-Eller-Ward
Fehr-Latta-Brown
Beagle

Alzner-Carlson
Gorges-Fayne
Schmidt-Weaver
Hillen

Holtby
Grubauer

And about 9.5M in cap space. Hate to rely on UFAs for two major roster spots, but oh well.