Series Talk: WCSF: Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think this is mostly because all those players play inside a lot more than Thornton.

Quite possibly, but remember that xGF% accounts for shot location. A shot from the inside will provide a much higher "expected goal" value than a shot from the outside.

For reference, over the regular season for that time frame, Thornton has been on for 565 expected goals and 604 actual goals. And he's given up 432 expected goals and 431 actual goals. So, in the regular season, Thornton has demonstrated the ability to drive his actual goals above his expected goals. That makes a lot of sense because Thornton creates lateral movement prior to these shots that heavily increase the likelihood of a shot scoring without changing the "expected goal" value of it. But why isn't this present in the playoffs?

By comparison, Hertl, has been on for 245 expected goals and 240 actual goals. Couture, 391 expected goals and 376 actual goals. Burns, 611 expected goals and 622 actual goals. So, Thornton notably outperforms his expected goals while the rest of these guys don't.

Again, why does this change so much for Thornton in particular in the playoffs? I don't know. But I know that it has consistently done so over a long period of time and that's why I hold him accountable for the actual goals and don't give him a pass because his advanced stats are good.

 

[Alwalys]

Yes, he has done very well in terms of CF% and xGF%.

In particular, Thornton has been out there for 74 expected goals for and 63 expected goals against, yet 63 actual goals for and 71 actual goals against. Are we to believe that he has just been unlucky? Or is it possible that there is something going on here that doesn’t translate to expected goals, but does translate to actual goals? Because it’s not just offense. You can’t just say he is getting bad shooting luck. And it’s not just goaltending. You can’t just say he is just not getting the saves. Is it really both? Has he really just been unlucky over a massive sample size that spans more than 100 games?

And among core players, only Boyle has been worse in GF%. Thornton has been the best in CF%, while Couture and Hertl have been the best in terms of xGF%. Hertl, Burns, and Couture have been the best in terms of actual GF%.

I don't disagree that there are issues with his play style especially in the playoffs. However don't lose sight of what we're discussing. My point was that currently he's sucking both by counting stats and advanced stats which didn't used to be the case. Hence why I'm lower on him than ever before.

Although I just took a look at he's still doing pretty good corsiwise ... So I dunno. He looks like ineffective shit. Maybe it really is all Sorenson sucking.

 

[STL Shark]

Really curious how PDB rolls the lines tomorrow. As much as I’ve advocated for Pavs at 4C, that’s more of a series long advantage than a 1 game win or go home. Pavelski can’t join back in on the Couture line as you can’t hard match him against Mackinnon (plus love the way Nyquist has looked there even though he can’t finish for crap). Same thing goes for the Hertl line given they’ve seen a good deal of Mackinnon as well. Guess for a Game 7 after not playing in two weeks, I’d do something like this:
28-39-14
9-48-27
8-19-62
20-23-68
Reunite Jumbo and Pavs for maybe the last time against secondary competition and see if they have any magic left. Gives the line a LW with some finish to go with Jumbo and Labanc’s playmaking ability. Also gives you a 4th line that can play some DZ shifts as it’s got some really defensively sound players.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I don't disagree that there are issues with his play style especially in the playoffs. However don't lose sight of what we're discussing. My point was that currently he's sucking both by counting stats and advanced stats which didn't used to be the case. Hence why I'm lower on him than ever before.

Although I just took a look at he's still doing pretty good corsiwise ... So I dunno. He looks like ineffective ****. Maybe it really is all Sorenson sucking.

He’s doing okay in terms of Corsi and poorly in terms of expected goals. But it’s worth noting that 20-19-62 did poorly in terms of Corsi and expected goals yet dominated goals and looked great throughout the regular season.

 

[Alwalys]

He’s doing okay in terms of Corsi and poorly in terms of expected goals. But it’s worth noting that 20-19-62 did poorly in terms of Corsi and expected goals yet dominated goals and looked great throughout the regular season.

I hate hockey sometimes lol

 

[LadyStanley]

Yes, Pavelski is improving. But enough to return to play? You know he'll get hit (accidentally/on purpose); is he healed enough?

I just don't know.

That he's with the team might be enough.

 

[DeadGhost]

Yes, Pavelski is improving. But enough to return to play? You know he'll get hit (accidentally/on purpose); is he healed enough?

I just don't know.

That he's with the team might be enough.

I don't know his state but he's probably still an improvement over Haley even at 75%. Even if he were to just play Haley's minutes 5on5 + his usual PP time the Sharks are better off.

 

[thenick099]

I don't know his state but he's probably still an improvement over Haley even at 75%. Even if he were to just play Haley's minutes 5on5 + his usual PP time the Sharks are better off.

If Pavs is back in, I hope they don't decide to keep Haley in and take Donskoi out. But who knows with Deboer

 

[DeadGhost]

If Pavs is back in, I hope they don't decide to keep Haley in and take Donskoi out. But who knows with Deboer

I doubt it but you never know. Donskoi is moving well from the looks of things. Snake bitten as ever but he was one of the few guys that looked like they were skating with a pulse last night.

 

[thenick099]

I doubt it but you never know. Donskoi is moving well from the looks of things. Snake bitten as ever but he was one of the few guys that looked like they were skating with a pulse last night.

Yeah, I agree. He's moving well and Hertl plays better when he's got him on the wing.

 

[Tkachuk4MVP]

That high altitude must’ve had an effect on Hertl. He disappeared in games 4 and 6 but looked great in game 5.

 

[Alwalys]

Welp, blues or golf boys

 

[LA Shark]

Welp, blues or golf boys

Imagine if you were told in December that you had 2 games to beat the Avs once, to go to the western conference finals to face the last place Blues. Oh and if you make the cup it's possible you would be playing the 7 seed Hurricanes, and the Bolts were already out.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Yes, Pavelski is improving. But enough to return to play? You know he'll get hit (accidentally/on purpose); is he healed enough?

I just don't know.

That he's with the team might be enough.

Maybe he could be behind the bench with the Coaches. I remember teams used to do that on occasion depending on the player.

That high altitude must’ve had an effect on Hertl. He disappeared in games 4 and 6 but looked great in game 5.

Yup. Him and Burns both look like they are affected by it.

Imagine if you were told in December that you had 2 games to beat the Avs once, to go to the western conference finals to face the last place Blues. Oh and if you make the cup it's possible you would be playing the 7 seed Hurricanes, and the Bolts were already out.

I like their chances but this is a trap game if ever there was one. They should be feeling good about how they've played the last couple games. Just gotta run the Avs out of the rink tomorrow. I'm looking at Meier to have another big game 7. Dude did every thing last game 7 except score.

 

[Jargon]

I don't want this game to be a miracle game. Or an OT game. Or a, "feel each other out" game. I want the Sharks to come in angry, angry for losing last game, angry for missing their chances, angry for having to play this one and sink all the chances they haven't been able to all season long. I want this game to be won by the 2nd period.

...but we all know Sharks lose 6-3. Compher and Jost combine for 12 points.

 

[Jargon]

By the way, any word on Rantanen after the Burns hit? I've seen Avs fans say both he and Landeskog are playing hurt, but unsure if there was any real news.

 

[LA Shark]

I like their chances but this is a trap game if ever there was one. They should be feeling good about how they've played the last couple games. Just gotta run the Avs out of the rink tomorrow. I'm looking at Meier to have another big game 7. Dude did every thing last game 7 except score.

Idk, it's pretty tough to look past a game 7. I expect a strong effort from puck drop. If Jones continues his strong play and we avoid having terrible puck luck, I think we take it.

 

[Alwalys]

Idk, it's pretty tough to look past a game 7. I expect a strong effort from puck drop. If Jones continues his strong play and we avoid having terrible puck luck, I think we take it.

Asking a bit much there. I'll be happy with neutral puck luck.

 

[slocal]

I have all the faith in the boys in teal.

WIN! WIN! WIN!

 

[Alwalys]

way i see it is if they win, i'll want to see moar of that team
if they lose i'll be so annoyed, i won't want to see them until next season

 

[Sharksfan83]

I have faith that the sharks are the best team in the series. And the best team apart from Boston left in the NHL. I just hate game 7s. Two bad pick bounces in the first 5 minutes and you’re up against it

 

[bdave]

I have faith that the sharks are the best team in the series. And the best team apart from Boston left in the NHL. I just hate game 7s. Two bad pick bounces in the first 5 minutes and you’re up against it

We are so due for the bounces to go our way

 

[tiburon12]

I don't want this game to be a miracle game. Or an OT game. Or a, "feel each other out" game. I want the Sharks to come in angry, angry for losing last game, angry for missing their chances, angry for having to play this one and sink all the chances they haven't been able to all season long. I want this game to be won by the 2nd period.

...but we all know Sharks lose 6-3. Compher and Jost combine for 12 points.

I want Game 7 against Nashville in 2016. Just embarrass the Avs out of the building.

I'm also still waiting for Girard or Makar to make a costly turnover at the blueline trying to be fancy. Only one game left for it to happen

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Idk, it's pretty tough to look past a game 7. I expect a strong effort from puck drop. If Jones continues his strong play and we avoid having terrible puck luck, I think we take it.

It's a game 7... It's always scary for the higher seed.

I have all the faith in the boys in teal.

To be honest I do as well. This has to be the most resilient team they've ever had in addition to being the most talented. I might have an ulcer tomorrow...

 

[LadyStanley]

Sharks forward Gustav Nyquist hoping already-special spring gets even better

Nyquist feature. Enjoying playing with Sharks.