WCQF: (2) Anaheim Ducks vs (3) San Jose Sharks | Sharks Leads Series 3-0

[Sharksrule04]

If anyone on either side feels super confident in their team winning whenever the california teams play each other I'd say you don't know much about hockey. I think the Sharks can win this series but I could just as easily see them losing in 6 or maybe even 5 if things really go poorly.

People saying Thornton being out isn't an impact because of his age really haven't been watching the Sharks before and after his injury. Our PP was among the best in the league with Thornton, without we've dropped to 15th and if you don't think a good PP can win a series then you haven't watched a lot of playoff hockey. I'm not comparing injuries just simply pointing out the flaws in some posts I'm seeing here.

I think the x-factor will be bottom pairing d-men and goaltending. Whether it's Miller or Gibson I expect the Ducks to have good goaltending. Jones has a way of stepping up his game in the playoffs, but he's been very up and down this year and I can't say I have a ton of faith in him outperforming the Ducks goaltending in this series. Also Demelo sucks, so I fully expect the Ducks to stomp him and Deboer to continue playing him over Ryan.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If anyone on either side feels super confident in their team winning whenever the california teams play each other I'd say you don't know much about hockey. I think the Sharks can win this series but I could just as easily see them losing in 6 or maybe even 5 if things really go poorly.

People saying Thornton being out isn't an impact because of his age really haven't been watching the Sharks before and after his injury. Our PP was among the best in the league with Thornton, without we've dropped to 15th and if you don't think a good PP can win a series then you haven't watched a lot of playoff hockey. I'm not comparing injuries just simply pointing out the flaws in some posts I'm seeing here.

I think the x-factor will be bottom pairing d-men and goaltending. Whether it's Miller or Gibson I expect the Ducks to have good goaltending. Jones has a way of stepping up his game in the playoffs, but he's been very up and down this year and I can't say I have a ton of faith in him outperforming the Ducks goaltending in this series. Also Demelo sucks, so I fully expect the Ducks to stomp him and Deboer to continue playing him over Ryan.

So whats the deal with demelo... just took a quick glance at his stats/advanced stats and they didn't look super awful.... he looks like a borderline all star next to bieska.

 

[Herschel]

So whats the deal with demelo... just took a quick glance at his stats/advanced stats and they didn't look super awful.... he looks like a borderline all star next to bieska.

He is this seasons whipping boy. Most of that comes from having two NHL caliber defencemen sitting in the press box that many fans believe are significantly better.

 

[Sharksrule04]

So whats the deal with demelo... just took a quick glance at his stats/advanced stats and they didn't look super awful.... he looks like a borderline all star next to bieska.

He had a pretty lucky stretch where he was getting a ton of assists. I think 10 in 8 or 9 games IIRC. He's bad though, he makes stupid mistakes and just isn't reliable in his own end. He shouldn't be playing over a responsible solid d-man like Joakim Ryan, or offensive talent like Tim Heed. Deboer has some sort of fetish for him though. I hope I'm wrong but I expect him to get targeted heavily by the Ducks and wouldn't be surprised if he's on the ice for multiple goals against per game.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

He had a pretty lucky stretch where he was getting a ton of assists. I think 10 in 8 or 9 games IIRC. He's bad though, he makes stupid mistakes and just isn't reliable in his own end. He shouldn't be playing over a responsible solid d-man like Joakim Ryan, or offensive talent like Tim Heed. Deboer has some sort of fetish for him though. I hope I'm wrong but I expect him to get targeted heavily by the Ducks and wouldn't be surprised if he's on the ice for multiple goals against per game.

Meh idk that well worry about him too much... I think well try to grind down vlasic/burns and get a lot of body contact on them 2.... try to slow burns down a bit so hes not as effective offensively.

At least you guys cant play vlasic 60 mins a game so that's a + for us

 

[Mattb124]

So whats the deal with demelo... just took a quick glance at his stats/advanced stats and they didn't look super awful.... he looks like a borderline all star next to bieska.

Sharks fans have nothing else significant to complain about. The issue is as much about him being in the lineup over Tim Heed than about his actual play. Demelo has his brain fart moments, but he is no Roman Polak.

 

[Fire Benning]

This is one of the toughest series to call in a long time for me, and the injuries throw another monkey wrench into trying to gauge. It's unknown if/when Gibson will play in this series, Fowler's out and they're going to have to rely on Francois Beauchemin to replace some of his minutes. The Sharks are also banged up though, Kane who was a great player for them down the stretch is playing hurt, Couture got hurt in their last game, Thornton's still out and doesn't look like he'll start the series, and if he does end up playing who knows if he'll be coming back too soon.

To me this series hinges on Gibson's health, the Ducks haven't been playing great for a lot of the season even when they were fully healthy and were relying on Gibson to keep them afloat. If he's healthy and playing the way he was for most of the season, there's a strong chance he can steal them the series. The Sharks aside from a hiccup towards the very end were one of the better teams in the last 25 games of the season. The Ducks gave up a lot of shots from right in the slot area and if the Ducks have to rely on Ryan Miller for a good chunk of the series that might be an issue against a Sharks team who led the league in Expected Goal share since the trade deadline, although if the Sharks aren't fully healthy that could be different. Miller did have a decent year but he's still 37 years old and didn't play a ton of games, I'd be skeptical of him preforming at Gibson's under a tougher workload.

This season is so tough to get a grip on as is and the injuries throw another curveball in trying to evaluate it, and we probably won't know who will and won't play until the series gets going. I'm leaning towards the Ducks becomes it seems like the safer pick (barely), but I really have no idea.

 

[lwvs84]

Deboer has some sort of fetish for him though.

Or maybe Deboer has some other fetish and Demelo just has pictures

I think this one will come down to health and effort. Can the Ducks string together some 60 minute efforts? San Jose has had their number this season, so they can't sleep through the games. If the Ducks show up to play, they might be the slight favorites to win this. If they play like they were 2 weeks ago, San Jose might have a pretty easy time this series. It's also going to hinge on if the Sharks can take advantage of when Lindholm/Manson aren't on the ice. With Fowler out, Beachemin/Wellinski/Petterson/Holzer/Bieksa (if he's back) can all be exploited and one of them (likely Beauch) will be in the top 4. Lot of Sharks fans are underselling how big the Fowler loss is, he's the top minutes guy on the team and those minutes are going to be picked up by guys who's seen too many winters or too few.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Sharks fans have nothing else significant to complain about. The issue is as much about him being in the lineup over Tim Heed than about his actual play. Demelo has his brain fat moments, but he is no Roman Polak.

You say this all very sarcastically so I assume you think we complain more than we should about Demelo. Question, how much have you watched Demelo?

I don't think he's an NHL caliber defenseman. Sure he can fill in on a bottom pairing for multiple games but he shouldn't be in the lineup for a team expecting to go far in the playoffs. Ryan is a better all around d-man, and Heed while he lacks a bit in his own end, is a big factor in the offensive end plus he boosts the 2nd PP unit. Personally, I would rather have the Polak of 2 years ago than Demelo of now. Polak was exposed in that Penguins series but until that point he had played solid defense through the first 3 rounds.

Do you think Demelo is good?

 

[duxfan1101]

Looks like Gibson and Bieksa (!!!) will be available for game 1.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

People saying Thornton being out isn't an impact because of his age really haven't been watching the Sharks before and after his injury. Our PP was among the best in the league with Thornton, without we've dropped to 15th and if you don't think a good PP can win a series then you haven't watched a lot of playoff hockey. I'm not comparing injuries just simply pointing out the flaws in some posts I'm seeing here.

Jumbo is out again? For how long?

 

[Herschel]

Demelo is definitely an NHL caliber defenseman and if you truly believe he is not, I am not sure there is much point in continuing to discuss this topic. I am also, not saying he is great or that a solid case can't be made that Ryan or Heed are better or provide a more optimum line up. Only that Demelo's play this season has clearly shown he is at the NHL level.

 

[Mattb124]

You say this all very sarcastically so I assume you think we complain more than we should about Demelo. Question, how much have you watched Demelo?

I don't think he's an NHL caliber defenseman. Sure he can fill in on a bottom pairing for multiple games but he shouldn't be in the lineup for a team expecting to go far in the playoffs. Ryan is a better all around d-man, and Heed while he lacks a bit in his own end, is a big factor in the offensive end plus he boosts the 2nd PP unit. Personally, I would rather have the Polak of 2 years ago than Demelo of now. Polak was exposed in that Penguins series but until that point he had played solid defense through the first 3 rounds.

Do you think Demelo is good?

I've only ever watched about every NHL game he has played - so there is that. He is a serviceable #6 dman. The alternative to him is Tim Heed, who produces at a slightly higher rate offensively, can be a trigger on the PP and makes a better outlet pass, but Demelo is better enough in the d-zone to make up the difference for me. Watching Heed get walked wide a couple of times was enough for me to get on board with Demelo as the #6 despite his shortcomings.

I guess the way I'd put it is I don't see either Demelo or Heed winning us a game, but I could see Heed losing us one more so than Demelo.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

So whats the deal with demelo... just took a quick glance at his stats/advanced stats and they didn't look super awful.... he looks like a borderline all star next to bieska.

Look at Tim Heed's advanced stats and look at Dillon-Heed as a pairing then check Dillon-Schlemko last year and Dillon-DeMelo. (I use Natural Stat Trick's Line Tool)

Dillon was twice the LHD on what was the best 3rd pairing in the NHL and that pairing has been average as a whole but very inconsistent with DeMelo.

Speaking of advanced stats, I just noticed the Ducks as a whole have awful advanced statistics - they rank bottom 10 in every single one of CF%, FF%, CF% close, FF% close, SF%, SCF%, and xGF%.

Personally, that makes me a lot more confident in this matchup. Can anybody who watches more of the Ducks than I do shed some light on why their metrics paint a picture of them as such a poor team?

 

[Duck Off]

apparently Carlyle is considering putting Bieksa in lineup. Changing my vote to SJ in 6.

 

[The Noot]

apparently Carlyle is considering putting Bieksa in lineup. Changing my vote to SJ in 6.

Yeah, that's a back breaker akin to Getz being out for the series.

Make it quick and painless, Sharks.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Look at Tim Heed's advanced stats and look at Dillon-Heed as a pairing then check Dillon-Schlemko last year and Dillon-DeMelo. (I use Natural Stat Trick's Line Tool)

Dillon was twice the LHD on what was the best 3rd pairing in the NHL and that pairing has been average as a whole but very inconsistent with DeMelo.

Speaking of advanced stats, I just noticed the Ducks as a whole have awful advanced statistics - they rank bottom 10 in every single one of CF%, FF%, CF% close, FF% close, SF%, SCF%, and xGF%.

Personally, that makes me a lot more confident in this matchup. Can anybody who watches more of the Ducks than I do shed some light on why their metrics paint a picture of them as such a poor team?

System is extremely defense first

 

[Duck Off]

System is extremely defense first

I imagine a lot of that has to do with Carlyle's obsession with line matching and being okay with dumping the puck in constantly to get the right line combination. I don't pay much attention to advanced stats, but I imagine that kills the possession numbers. This was my biggest issue with rehiring Carlyle because that's a very taxing system and we're one of the older teams.

 

[HanSolo]

apparently Carlyle is considering putting Bieksa in lineup. Changing my vote to SJ in 6.

In fairness to Kev and Carlyle he did look pretty decent in the postseason last year before getting injured.

But also this:

 

[Better Call Sal]

Ducks in 6, Henrique with the series winner.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

System is extremely defense first

That wouldn't really explain why they're also bottom 10 in shot attempts and high danger chances against per 60, although they're 5th in GA/60 so I guess defensively they're doing something right

 

[Duck Off]

That wouldn't really explain why they're also bottom 10 in shot attempts and high danger chances against per 60, although they're 5th in GA/60 so I guess defensively they're doing something right

this is why advanced stats are very misleading (or at least can be). The one thing I actually like about the Ducks system is they don't just shoot from everywhere. It's a grinding style that generally only creates one or two shots, but give me 1 or 2 quality shots over 5-6 shots from the point any day. I think the Ducks should work on passing it back to their goalie more since Carlyle is insistent on getting his matchups. I don't mind the matchup game, but you can't give the puck to the other team every time. Getzlaf is the only player who consistently didn't just dump it in to get the matchup.

 

[Nightmare1000]

I got the San Jose Sharks in 6 games.

 

[Not So Mighty]

Fowler is not your #1D. Full stop. Just because Randy treats him like he isn’t doesn’t mean he is. Lindholm and Manson are clearly better. And again, I say the Gibson thing because Ryan Miller has a long history of owning the Sharks, which I’ve already made a tongue-in-cheek-but-also-serious point about. Never mind the fact that you will have Gibson back by all indications.

It’s good to know that a 63 point pace is an “eh season” and Patrick Eaves is as good as Evander Kane, though.

Thornton is not your best player. Full Stop.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Thornton is not your best player. Full Stop.

He was leading our forward group in points when he got hurt. Burns was ahead of him by three points but that's about it.