Speculation: Vancouver - Pittsburgh

[Gurglesons]

I think my issue is with including Hoglander, he’s by far better player than most teams would conceivably trade for a rental. Teams top prospects also rarely get moved for pure rentals but I’m not too familiar with Vegas’ prospect pool to know where Brisson ranks.


For a signed Guentzel I’d have no issues with this package. Bring it on!

Not sure Hoglander is that far off from Owen Tippett.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Not sure Hoglander is that far off from Owen Tippett.

I think Tippet was more of a throw-in at the time of the Giroux trade. He was definitely spinning his tires in Florida.

 

[God]

Trading Höglander, who is finally breaking out for UFA makes no sense

Not only that, but it's insane that a proposal like this would have us give an extra 1st round pick on top of Hoglander.

Hoglander is currently producing at the same rate as Brandon Hagel was before being traded to Tampa, while also being 1 year younger and signed for another two years at $1M AAV. He would easily return two 1sts if he were on the market right now, and a contending team should be trading for guys like Hoglander, not away.

 

[Vancouver_2010]

Can see these two teams matching up and making eachother better:

To Vancouver: Guentzel, 2024 4th round pick

To Pittsburgh: Mikheyev, Raty, Klimovich, 2025 3rd, 2024 6th, 2025 6th

now this is a reasonable proposal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I feel like this conversation is way easier if Guentzel is just coming with an extension. The Canucks can justify trading Lekkerimaki for Guentzel if Guentzel is going to be sticking around, and Lekkerimaki is exactly who the Penguins should want back for Guentzel.

I listened to Dhaliwhal's podcast a bit yesterday where he mentioned that Hoglander is loved by his teammates in Vancouver and his teammates really like playing with him, so I absolutely think it's reasonable to suggest that they wouldn't want to trade Hoglander. That is especially true when you look at his contract for next year. I think Vancouver keeping Hoglander but trading Lekkerimaki makes the most sense for both sides. It's just getting to a point where they'd be willing to trade Lekkerimaki.

If the deal ends up being Lekkerimaki and a 2025 1st for Guentzel as a rental, that's going to be a big time mistake by the Canucks IMO. But at the same time, I can't confidently say that they won't make that mistake.

now this is a reasonable proposal.

What's funny is that there are actually some Canucks fans in here delusional enough to believe this.

 

[Ryder71]

now this is a reasonable proposal.

For who? Quantity over quality, that's about it.

 

[SEALBound]

I feel like this conversation is way easier if Guentzel is just coming with an extension. The Canucks can justify trading Lekkerimaki for Guentzel if Guentzel is going to be sticking around, and Lekkerimaki is exactly who the Penguins should want back for Guentzel.

I listened to Dhaliwhal's podcast a bit yesterday where he mentioned that Hoglander is loved by his teammates in Vancouver and his teammates really like playing with him, so I absolutely think it's reasonable to suggest that they wouldn't want to trade Hoglander. That is especially true when you look at his contract for next year. I think Vancouver keeping Hoglander but trading Lekkerimaki makes the most sense for both sides. It's just getting to a point where they'd be willing to trade Lekkerimaki.

If the deal ends up being Lekkerimaki and a 2025 1st for Guentzel as a rental, that's going to be a big time mistake by the Canucks IMO. But at the same time, I can't confidently say that they won't make that mistake.

I mentioned this in the Pit forum but the team is also trying to convince EP to sign that contract. Bringing in Linholm and Guentzel to show him they are serious about winning may be what tips it in Vancouver's favor and gets him to sign. Especially if you can point to something like "if you sign here and Jake is interested, we will resign him and he can be your new 1LW". If EP wants to leave, obviously the return will be huge but I doubt it's "replace your 25yo franchise 1C" and if that happens, I'm not convinced Lekkerimaki is going to make that much of a difference.

So there is a future to consider and balance to maintain most definitely but things change big time if EP wants out.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I think Pittsburgh is going to prefer ready now prospects if it's going to happen.

They aret going to stuff Sid

 

[Ryder71]

If it's a sign and trade then LEKK, 4th and Hogs or a 1st seems very reasonable.

I think Pittsburgh is going to prefer ready now prospects if it's going to happen.

They aret going to stuff Sid

They can do both.

 

[Ryder71]

Not only that, but it's insane that a proposal like this would have us give an extra 1st round pick on top of Hoglander.

Hoglander is currently producing at the same rate as Brandon Hagel was before being traded to Tampa, while also being 1 year younger and signed for another two years at $1M AAV. He would easily return two 1sts if he were on the market right now, and a contending team should be trading for guys like Hoglander, not away.

I think your valuation is a bit off. He's emerging, but just recently.

 

[God]

I think your valuation is a bit off. He's emerging, but just recently.

Their career numbers are essentially the same

Brandon Hagel - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Nils Hoglander - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

And given contract status, it's absolutely the same situation. I'm obviously not saying Hoglander is better than Guentzel but I think most fans have realized that player ability doesn't necessarily correlate with trade value when contract status comes into play.

 

[Diversification]

Interesting thread. It all hinges on the value you assign Hoglander. To me, his value is greater than a 17OA pick in the 2023 draft.

This is a guy that plays about 11:30 a night all at evens and scored 18 goals so far with nothing linemates for the most part. He's cost-controlled, signed for a bargain next year and he's 23.

So if it's Horvat-like return you're looking for, Hoglander, Mikheyev and a 2025 1st is pretty close in value from where I'm standing.

Pens fans seem to see it differently. Perhaps they don't see him as a fit with their existing forwards. If so, fair enough.

 

[Ryder71]

Their career numbers are essentially the same

Brandon Hagel - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Nils Hoglander - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

And given contract status, it's absolutely the same situation. I'm obviously not saying Hoglander is better than Guentzel but I think most fans have realized that player ability doesn't necessarily correlate with trade value when contract status comes into play.

I get your point, but you guys are a win now mode. And Jake in that regard is as accomplished or more than anyone on your team in the playoffs. I know he played with Sid, but there were games Sid missed and Jake continued to produce. He's not just a Crosby creation. He actually had great numbers with Geno. He potentially could put you guys over the top. He's a clutch player. It just depends on how much your management values that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Their career numbers are essentially the same

Brandon Hagel - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Nils Hoglander - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

And given contract status, it's absolutely the same situation. I'm obviously not saying Hoglander is better than Guentzel but I think most fans have realized that player ability doesn't necessarily correlate with trade value when contract status comes into play.

What? No they're not.

Hagel on Chicago: 30 goals and 61 points in 108 games
Hoglander on Vancouver: 44 goals and 80 points in 200 games

Even if you only look at this year with Hoglander, he's still not as productive as Hagel was in Chicago. Hagel averaged 46 points per 82 games with Chicago, Hoglander is on pace for 36 points this year.

Interesting thread. It all hinges on the value you assign Hoglander. To me, his value is greater than a 17OA pick in the 2023 draft.

This is a guy that plays about 11:30 a night all at evens and scored 18 goals so far with nothing linemates for the most part. He's cost-controlled, signed for a bargain next year and he's 23.

So if it's Horvat-like return you're looking for, Hoglander, Mikheyev and a 2025 1st is pretty close in value from where I'm standing.

Pens fans seem to see it differently. Perhaps they don't see him as a fit with their existing forwards. If so, fair enough.

I think Hoglander is a good fit on the Penguins, I just don't value him at nearly that high. He's not the first guy to run an unsustainable shooting% in a depth role to insane production and he won't be the last.

He's a middle-6 player right now with top-6 upside similar to someone like Zucker. I think that has the value of a 1st, but not nearly as high as what you're suggesting. I think it's more like a late 1st around 30th overall.

 

[God]

What? No they're not.

Hagel on Chicago: 30 goals and 61 points in 108 games
Hoglander on Vancouver: 44 goals and 80 points in 200 games

Even if you only look at this year with Hoglander, he's still not as productive as Hagel was in Chicago. Hagel averaged 46 points per 82 games with Chicago, Hoglander is on pace for 36 points this year.

I'm not sure what you're hoping to accomplish by using absolute production to refute both links showing even strength rate production to adjust for ice time differences between players on teams in different situations.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not sure what you're hoping to accomplish by using absolute production to refute both links showing rate production to adjust for ice time differences between players on teams in different situations.

Because teams value players based on their actual production, not rate-based production.

If Vancouver wants another team to value Hoglander like Hagel, they should start using Hoglander like Chicago used Hagel and inflate his value that way.

 

[Lat]

I'd much rather trade Lekkerimaki than Hoglander at this point in time.

The Lekk/Mik/Raty proposal for a signed Guentzel actually sounded reasonable.

 

[God]

Because teams value players based on their actual production, not rate-based production.

If Vancouver wants another team to value Hoglander like Hagel, they should start using Hoglander like Chicago used Hagel and inflate his value that way.

I agree that teams value high end players based on actual production. But when you're looking to identify impact players for the middle/bottom of your lineup, you're absolutely going to look at rate production in addition to actual production. Hoglander has both, and that's invaluable in the salary cap era.

I'm not even arguing anything new here; Tampa adopted this strategy with Coleman and Goodrow, and it paid off for them. It almost paid off with Hagel, but the value is clearly there.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I mentioned this in the Pit forum but the team is also trying to convince EP to sign that contract. Bringing in Linholm and Guentzel to show him they are serious about winning may be what tips it in Vancouver's favor and gets him to sign. Especially if you can point to something like "if you sign here and Jake is interested, we will resign him and he can be your new 1LW". If EP wants to leave, obviously the return will be huge but I doubt it's "replace your 25yo franchise 1C" and if that happens, I'm not convinced Lekkerimaki is going to make that much of a difference.

So there is a future to consider and balance to maintain most definitely but things change big time if EP wants out.

I feel this is likely management’s thinking regarding acquiring Guentzel. It really all depends on what sort of contract Guentzel is looking for. If he’s willing to sign a 7 year/$56M contract similar to Miller’s, I think they could make it work. But if he’s looking for $9/9.5M, I don’t think it’s possible for Vancouver.

 

[I am Canadian]

If I were in charge I’d say no. I’d probably counter with Willander or Lekkerimaki + a 1st.

You don't get prospects of that quality for a rental, despite how good the rental is.

 

[Ryder71]

You don't get prospects of that quality for a rental, despite how good the rental is.

If you are management and you think a particular player can put you over the top, you're likely to pay a pretty penny to find out.

I doubt it but we don't conclusively know if VAN is on Jakes No trade list.

 

[Jacob]

You don't get prospects of that quality for a rental, despite how good the rental is.

It was a long time ago but Hossa, a rental, fetched a former 1st round pick, a recent 1st round pick, and a future 1st round pick.

Worse rentals like Tarasenko tend to fetch less but there’s not a lot of recent precedent for a rental like Guentzel.

 

[Ulf5]

You don't get prospects of that quality for a rental, despite how good the rental is.

Oh I see you're not familiar with Gunslinger Jimmy. Yeah, yeah, Allvin, blah, blah.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Oh I see you're not familiar with Gunslinger Jimmy. Yeah, yeah, Allvin, blah, blah.

Has JR traded a prospect of Willander/Lekkerimaki calibre for a rental before? It’s been reported that if the Canucks make any more big moves it will be for a player with term or an impending UFA that they’ll be likely to re-sign.

 

[Ryder71]

Has JR traded a prospect of Willander/Lekkerimaki calibre for a rental before? It’s been reported that if the Canucks make any more big moves it will be for a player with term or an impending UFA that they’ll be likely to re-sign.

Kapanen, at the time he was well thought of. An I'm personally more interested in LEKK.