Speculation: Vancouver - Pittsburgh

[Bishop7979]

Jake did travel with the team even though he can't play for what, 10 days?
He's in Vancouver right now, go big with an offer tonight and the nucks won't have to pay for his travel.

 

[Szechwan]

I'd argue the Vancouver 2025 pick is far more valuable than the 2024 pick they just gave up for Lindholm, particularly if you believe their season is all luck like most of HF does.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd argue the Vancouver 2025 pick is far more valuable than the 2024 pick they just gave up for Lindholm, particularly if you believe their season is all luck like most of HF does

And you’d be wrong. No other team would value a future pick more than a current year pick because “things could be worse for them next year”, unless they’re clearly on the downswing. For a team full of prime aged players, there's no team that would buy that with the Canucks.

The Penguins or Capitals? That's one thing. But the Canucks absolutely do not fall in that category.

 

[SEALBound]

I misread. If they don’t even have a 1st then it’d have to be Willander + Lekkerimaki. And then I’d send a memo to the other 30 teams asking if they can outbid.

We can certainly eat 50% of his salary if that helps any.

If it's both, I'd be willing to send them Pickering potentially.

 

[Szechwan]

I wouldn't be giving up Lekk or Willander. Even Hoglander would be tough, they're relying on these guys being able to come in and contribute in order to offset the OEL cap penalty.



Some combination of Podkolzin/Raty/Bains/1st 2025/2nd 2025 is all I'd do for a UFA, fair enough if Pens look for a higher ceiling return elsewhere.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I misread. If they don’t even have a 1st then it’d have to be Willander + Lekkerimaki. And then I’d send a memo to the other 30 teams asking if they can outbid.

We can certainly eat 50% of his salary if that helps any.

I think this is unreasonable. I think the absolute max the Penguins could get is Lekkerimaki and Hoglander, and I think Vancouver would be pretty damn uncomfortable doing that without an extension for Guentzel. Willinger and Lekkerimaki as a combo is more than any rental player has ever been traded for, at least from what I recall.

Even for an extended Guentzel, I think that's too much from Vancouver. Like I've said a couple of times, I think the perfectly fair value in this case is Guentzel with an extension for Mikheyev, Lekkerimaki and Hoglander.

I wouldn't be giving up Lekk or Willander. Even Hoglander would be tough, they're relying on these guys being able to come in and contribute in order to offset the OEL cap penalty.



Some combination of Podkolzin/Raty/Bains/1st 2025/2nd 2025 is all I'd do for a UFA, fair enough if Pens look for a higher ceiling return elsewhere.

You're better off just saying "I don't want Jake Guentzel" than saying "I wouldn't want to give up anything of note for him". If you're not even willing to pay a poor offer for Guentzel, why even say what you'd trade for him?

 

[8To34]

But that's true though. Mikheyev does not have good value right now with his current performance and production. The guy on the podcast gave a pretty scathing review of current play. So yeah, for him to be included, I do believe there is a bit of extra payment that has to offset that. Hogs+1st would be just fine by me. I would even take Lekkerimaki instead of the 1st if you guys wanted.

Mikheyev is coming back from a knee injury that takes a year to heal it shows. He's not terrible (40 point utility winger while still healing) but not a great fit for what the Canucks are doing this year, not unlike Kuzmenko. If he doesn't have any setbacks he's a better Dupuis and could very add a lot to the Pens with his speed. His remaining contract is also fine if not great given the current cap landscape.

I don't think he has positive value in a trade like this but its not negative either. Its like when the Leafs got Lupul and Gardiner for Beauchemin and Lupul was very good for them until Robidas Island time.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Lmfao that's heinous for the Penguins

What makes it even funnier is that the Penguins are giving up both the most valuable player and the most valuable pick in this deal, since their 2024 4th is worth more than the Canucks 2025 3rd.

As a Canucks fan that’s the worst I’ve seen in a long time

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I’d want

Lekkerimaki or Willander
Hoglander
Bad contract

 

[Szechwan]

You're better off just saying "I don't want Jake Guentzel" than saying "I wouldn't want to give up anything of note for him". If you're not even willing to pay a poor offer for Guentzel, why even say what you'd trade for him?

Here watch. "I wouldn't want to give up anything of note for another UFA."

1st, 2nd, a former 10th overall prospect and Mikeyev isn't the worst thing in the world, and is far more in line with historical deadline deals than the Pens fan pipedream of a Lekkerimaki & Willander package. It's not the ransom you are expecting, I understand that. If you think you can get another team to pony up their two top prospects, have at it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Here watch. "I wouldn't want to give up anything of note for another UFA."

1st, 2nd, a former 10th overall prospect and Mikeyev isn't the worst thing in the world, and is far more in line with previous deadline deals than the Pens fan pipedream of Lekkerimaki & Willander. It's not the ransom you are expecting, I understand that.

You're casually not mentioning that the picks aren't this year and the "former 10th overall prospect" is turning 23 in a few months and looks like a dud.

Just say you don't want Guentzel instead of trying to polish a turd and convince Penguins fans it's not a turd. That offer isn't even as good as what Vancouver got for Horvat last year.

 

[Szechwan]

You're casually not mentioning that the picks aren't this year and the "former 10th overall prospect" is turning 23 in a few months and looks like a dud.

Just say you don't want Guentzel instead of trying to polish a turd and convince Penguins fans it's not a turd. That offer isn't even as good as what Vancouver got for Horvat last year.

Really?

You think a 1st, Raty and Beauvillier is noticeably better than 1st, 2nd, Podkolzin and Mikeyev? They seem pretty similar to me. You're welcome to have Raty instead if you like him that much.

Anyways, this is all moot. Teams don't move their top prospects for rentals.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Really?

You think a 1st, Raty and Beauvillier is noticeably better than 1st, 2nd, Podkolzin and Mikeyev? They seem pretty similar to me. You'ee welcome to have Raty instead if you like him that much.

A current year 1st that ended up 17th overall is substantially more valuable than a next year 1st and 2nd that look to be later in the 1st round. Even if those picks were this year, the 1st the Canucks got for Horvat is still more valuable than the Canucks 1st and 2nd this year. The Canucks 1st and 2nd this year is probably only about 22nd overall in value, and making those picks next year makes it even lower in value.

 

[Szechwan]

A current year 1st that ended up 17th overall is substantially more valuable than a next year 1st and 2nd that look to be later in the 1st round. Even if those picks were this year, the 1st the Canucks got for Horvat is still more valuable than the Canucks 1st and 2nd this year. The Canucks 1st and 2nd this year is probably only about 22nd overall in value, and making those picks next year makes it even lower in value.

Fair enough, as I said, I wouldn't give up my top prospect for a UFA, just like every other team in history with the exception of like Washington trading Forsberg. We'll see who you guys manage to bring back soon enough.

 

[Tact]

I don’t know I’m torn. JR has said he doesn’t want to disrupt chemistry too much. I think Mikheyev must go for salary cap reason in any deal. I don’t think the Canucks would want to include 2 rosters players (Hoglander).

Allvin ran to the stands and blurted out Lekkermakki name at the draft - so I know he is really high on him and Wallinder is untouchable.

Podkolzin is a NHL player next year on a cost controlled contract which the Canucks need to replace their many UFA’s. Ditto Hoglander.

I really don’t think the Canucks have the assets or want to meet the asking price imo from Pens. If I had a choice, the most I would offer is Mikheyev, Podkolzin, (any other prospects not named Wallinder or Lekkermakki) 1st in 25’ and a 2nd round pick (would only add this if we had to).

If that is rejected, I’d probably circle to Toffoli from NJD.

 

[Empoleon8771]

17th overall

Yes, I corrected that for 17th overall. Still doesn't change the point.

Setting aside potential playoff success, the Canucks are 1st in the NHL right now. If that sticks, their 1st will be 32nd overall and their 2nd will be 64th overall. Those two together only get you to 26th overall. Even if they lose in round 2, they'll still be picking around 28th. 28th plus 60th only gets you to 22nd. And now add on that the picks are next year, not this year. So yes, it's not the same in value.

Change the 2025 2nd to a 2026 1st and maybe the value is there at that point. I'd hate it but the value would be there.

 

[kcunac]

I hope they don’t have to give up Hogs. We’ll really need his production from low salary next year.

Lekk is a great prospect who just had a great season but he’s still a slightly undersized winger. I could live with giving him up.

 

[BCNate]

I misread. If they don’t even have a 1st then it’d have to be Willander + Lekkerimaki. And then I’d send a memo to the other 30 teams asking if they can outbid.

We can certainly eat 50% of his salary if that helps any.

Wait, what?? You think you'd get both for Guenzel? C'mon dude.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

If I was Vancouver I'd move Willander in a heartbeat for someone like Guentzel

Lekkerimaki yes, not Willander. Hes got legit top pairing upside and is an RHD

 

[Jacob]

I wouldn't be giving up Lekk or Willander. Even Hoglander would be tough, they're relying on these guys being able to come in and contribute in order to offset the OEL cap penalty.



Some combination of Podkolzin/Raty/Bains/1st 2025/2nd 2025 is all I'd do for a UFA, fair enough if Pens look for a higher ceiling return elsewhere.

I think Edmonton is our best bet for a trade Partner. They have their 1st and a 2nd still, and some young players that they can’t really fit, and with Connor Brown counting so much against next year’s cap and McDavid/Drai getting antsy Holland is going to be more desperate to go all in. Vancouver isn’t in quite the “it’s now or never” mode. They don’t have to win it all this year.

But Edmonton will need to move salary around to make it work.

Wait, what?? You think you'd get both for Guenzel? C'mon dude.

If I was in charge that’s what I’d ask for, yeah.

 

[Zirakzigil]

There is a reason the ask is multiple 1st or similar assets, there is little appetite to trade him. If someone wants to give a stupid offer, the Penguins will gladly listen, otherwise we will just sign him to a new contract. Contrary to popular believe, there isnt going to be a quick "retool" or "rebuild" after the Crosby era. It will be a burn it to the ground scenario and will be a bad 3 or so years. A late 1st round pick and an okay prospect will make next to no difference. Ownership didnt just shell out hundreds of millions to go directly into a rebuild. They will ride this core for the next 2-3 years and then do what needs to happen then.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

I don't think many people would really make a big deal out of Mikheyev's inclusion if he's just being included for money reasons. It's one thing for Vancouver to be trying to trade him without taking money back, but just being included as money in a bigger deal, I don't think that's a huge issue.

If Vancouver offers enough value for Penguins fans to be happy to trade Guentzel, I can't imagine anyone will make a big deal out of Mikheyev needing to be included to make the money work.

Adding Mikheyev especially with Dubas as a GM is a non -issue. If Kuzmenko was seen as value (he was according to Conroy) than so would Mikheyev.
As for no first some would say that the nucks 2025 may end up being a better pick, there's no guarantee they are this good next year.

I said this in the Lindholm thread that if JR wants him he will get him

The fact that we opened up almost 4 million in cap by LTIR Soucy when there was no need to take him of IR and count towards the cap, is fishy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Adding Mikheyev especially with Dubas as a GM is a non -issue. If Kuzmenko was seen as value (he was according to Conroy) than so would Mikheyev.
As for no first some would say that the nucks 2025 may end up being a better pick, there's no guarantee they are this good next year.

I said this in the Lindholm thread that if JR wants him he will get him

The fact that we opened up almost 4 million in cap by LTIR Soucy when there was no need to take him of IR and count towards the cap, is fishy.

Yeah that's entirely true that they may not be as good next year as this year. Doesn't change the fact that no team is going to value a 2025 1st over a 2024 1st for a team that isn't obviously on the decline.

 

[ikyan]

2025 1st (top 10 protected) / Raty / Silovs / Mynio for Guentzel (50 pct retained).

Pens get a good grab bag without eating a bad contract, but no A tier piece back.

Nucks get the star player without giving up their A prospects, but have to give on quantity and not getting out of a bad contract in the deal for a pending UFA.

 

[Empoleon8771]

2025 1st (top 10 protected) / Raty / Silovs / Mynio for Guentzel (50 pct retained).

Pens get a good grab bag without eating a bad contract, but no A tier piece back.

Nucks get the star player without giving up their A prospects, but have to give on quantity and not getting out of a bad contract in the deal for a pending UFA.

Honest question: do you seriously think the Penguins would accept this?

I keep using this comparison because it's the same team. This is less than what Vancouver got for Horvat a year ago and Guentzel is a better player than Horvat.