[VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21) Plus for J.T. Miller || Part 2

[PecaFan]

Agreed, I don't see it happening either. But it was surprising to me that the league still hasn't defined the official terms yet, with so many conditional playoffs / futures dependent trades existing.

 

[timw33]

Agreed, I don't see it happening either. But it was surprising to me that the league still hasn't defined the official terms yet, with so many conditional playoffs / futures dependent trades existing.

I think it's pretty simple now: if you are one of the 7 not in the play in round, you did not make the playoffs, if you lose your play in (8 teams), you did not make the playoffs.

 

[VanJack]

If I'm reading the newly released draft rules correctly, the Canucks are in almost a 'no lose' position heading into the resumption of play.

If they lose their opening 'play-in' round with the Wild, they're automatically in the draft lottery, with an equal chance to move up versus every other team that gets eliminated.

And because they'd be considered 'a lottery team' for draft purposes, their 2020 first rounder surrendered to the Lightning (Devils) automatically reverts to the 2021 draft.

Is that it?

 

[Peter10]

I think that the 8 "Play In" losers would be seeded by Pts% in the 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 spots. So really depends on who wins, cause if like 4 teams below us in Pts% win their matchups and Vancouver loses, could be picking Top 10.

The problem is going into next season without the ejector seat option of having a potential lottery pick should the season turn sour early (we have a very tough offseason ahead of us with multiple critical FAs). You don't want to be the SJS this year where they have literally nothing to look forward to.

It could be a blessing in disguise. If it leads to Benning being fired its certainly one heck of a good thing to look forward to.

 

[ChilliBilly]

It could be a blessing in disguise. If it leads to Benning being fired its certainly one heck of a good thing to look forward to.

disagree. I want to give up the pick this year. If its next year its one injury away from being a top 10. Hughes Pettersson or "Markstrom" , assuming we resign him.

 

[timw33]

disagree. I want to give up the pick this year. If its next year its one injury away from being a top 10. Hughes Pettersson or "Markstrom" , assuming we resign him.

I agree, the chances of getting a Top 3 are so remote that the only incentive here is to win the play-in to give up at worst a 16th, and hopefully something in the 20's. With this conditional first, the "tank" and "playoff" sides should be united in wanting to at least get past the Wild and maybe have some fun along the way.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

So the 1st round pick will be deferred to 2021 if we lose to Minnesota, otherwise we will give it up this year. I guess the worst case outcome is that the Canucks lose to Minnesota and don't get a lottery pick.

LeBrun: The NHL's ruling on conditional trades is the right...

 

[PecaFan]

Readable source: Vancouver Canucks' first-round pick transfers to New Jersey Devils if they make playoffs - TSN.ca

 

[Fatass]

So the 1st round pick will be deferred to 2021 if we lose to Minnesota, otherwise we will give it up this year. I guess the worst case outcome is that the Canucks lose to Minnesota and don't get a lottery pick.

LeBrun: The NHL's ruling on conditional trades is the right...

That’s not possible, is it? Don’t the losers of the play-in series go into the lottery?
“If Vancouver loses that play-in series, the Canucks officially miss the playoffs and keep the pick - which would be a draft lottery pick”

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

That’s not possible, is it? Don’t the losers of the play-in series go into the lottery?
“If Vancouver loses that play-in series, the Canucks officially miss the playoffs and keep the pick - which would be a draft lottery pick”

Nope. There will be a preliminary lottery where either the 7 bottom teams will win the lottery picks, or placeholder teams will win picks (those being the teams that lose in the qualifying round (Minnesota or Vancouver). If it's a placeholder that wins a lottery pick, another lottery will be done after the qualifying round is over, where 1 of the 8 losing teams will be awarded the top 3 pick. So Vancouver could get bounced in the qualifying round, not be awarded a lottery pick (either no placeholder team is drawn in the first lottery, or another team that loses in the qualifying team wins the lottery), and have their 1st to NJ deferred as unprotected in 2021.

 

[Fatass]

Nope. There will be a preliminary lottery where either the 7 bottom teams will win the lottery picks, or placeholder teams will win picks (those being the teams that lose in the qualifying round (Minnesota or Vancouver). If it's a placeholder that wins a lottery pick, another lottery will be done after the qualifying round is over, where 1 of the 8 losing teams will be awarded the top 3 pick. So Vancouver could get bounced in the qualifying round, not be awarded a lottery pick (either no placeholder team is drawn in the first lottery, or another team that loses in the qualifying team wins the lottery), and have their 1st to NJ deferred as unprotected in 2021.

Thanks, but I don’t get it.
So, what number would we pick at in this worst case scenario?
Maybe Benning should just stop trading away draft picks?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Thanks, but I don’t get it.
So, what number would we pick at in this worst case scenario?

Lol it's not that simple so don't feel bad, I'll try again to explain it.

1) 1st lottery for the top 3 picks. If the 7 non-playoff teams all win lottery picks, it ends there and the Canucks have no chance of getting a top 3 pick. If a placeholder team wins a lottery pick, go to step 2.

2) 2nd lottery for the top 3 picks for the placeholder team, which involves the teams that lose in the qualifying round being put into this lottery. There will be 8 teams that are eligible for this lottery pick (16 teams in the qualifying round, so half will lose, leaving 8).

So the Canucks are left with:

• Beat Minnesota in the qualifying round, and then forfeit their 2020 1st round pick to NJ. Obviously it will depend on how far the Canucks get in the playoffs. This seems to be one of the better results, just rip the bandaid off and we're assured we don't give up a top 10 pick.
• Lose to Minnesota and are not awarded a lottery pick. So the Canucks would keep their pick this season and would draft around 9-15 (most likely 9-13 range, but if the teams ranked 13th/14th/15th overall win a lottery pick, they would leap frog us and we would fall to their position). NJ gets our 2021 unprotected 1st. This is the worst result IMO, just based on the uncertainty of next year's 1st round pick along with receiving a mid-round 1st this year.
• Lose to Minnesota and get a top 3 pick. The least likely situation to happen based on the probability, but it would be amazing to get a top 3 pick. If the Canucks lose to Minnesota, the odds for winning the lottery pick are 12.5% per placeholder team drawn in the 1st lottery. NJ gets our 2021 unprotected 1st.

*I could be wrong with some of the calculations. I forget if draft placement is based on regular season or playoff success lol.

 

[Fatass]

Lol it's not that simple so don't feel bad, I'll try again to explain it.

1) 1st lottery for the top 3 picks. If the 7 non-playoff teams all win lottery picks, it ends there and the Canucks have no chance of getting a top 3 pick. If a placeholder team wins a lottery pick, go to step 2.

2) 2nd lottery for the top 3 picks for the placeholder team, which involves the teams that lose in the qualifying round being put into this lottery. There will be 8 teams that are eligible for this lottery pick (16 teams in the qualifying round, so half will lose, leaving 8).

So the Canucks are left with:

• Beat Minnesota in the qualifying round, and then forfeit their 2020 1st round pick to NJ. Obviously it will depend on how far the Canucks get in the playoffs. This seems to be one of the better results, just rip the bandaid off and we're assured we don't give up a top 10 pick.
• Lose to Minnesota and are not awarded a lottery pick. So the Canucks would keep their pick this season and would draft around 9-15 (most likely 9-13 range, but if the teams ranked 13th/14th/15th overall win a lottery pick, they would leap frog us and we would fall to their position). NJ gets our 2021 unprotected 1st. This is the worst result IMO, just based on the uncertainty of next year's 1st round pick along with receiving a mid-round 1st this year.
• Lose to Minnesota and get a top 3 pick. The least likely situation to happen based on the probability, but it would be amazing to get a top 3 pick. If the Canucks lose to Minnesota, the odds for winning the lottery pick are 12.5% per placeholder team drawn in the 1st lottery. NJ gets our 2021 unprotected 1st.

*I could be wrong with some of the calculations. I forget if draft placement is based on regular season or playoff success lol.

Nicely explained! Thanks!
Looks like the best case scenario is we win the Cup, and NJ gets our pick - 31 in the draft. I’ll cheer for that to happen!

 

[F A N]

Lol it's not that simple so don't feel bad, I'll try again to explain it.

1) 1st lottery for the top 3 picks. If the 7 non-playoff teams all win lottery picks, it ends there and the Canucks have no chance of getting a top 3 pick. If a placeholder team wins a lottery pick, go to step 2.

2) 2nd lottery for the top 3 picks for the placeholder team, which involves the teams that lose in the qualifying round being put into this lottery. There will be 8 teams that are eligible for this lottery pick (16 teams in the qualifying round, so half will lose, leaving 8).

So the Canucks are left with:

• Beat Minnesota in the qualifying round, and then forfeit their 2020 1st round pick to NJ. Obviously it will depend on how far the Canucks get in the playoffs. This seems to be one of the better results, just rip the bandaid off and we're assured we don't give up a top 10 pick.
• Lose to Minnesota and are not awarded a lottery pick. So the Canucks would keep their pick this season and would draft around 9-15 (most likely 9-13 range, but if the teams ranked 13th/14th/15th overall win a lottery pick, they would leap frog us and we would fall to their position). NJ gets our 2021 unprotected 1st. This is the worst result IMO, just based on the uncertainty of next year's 1st round pick along with receiving a mid-round 1st this year.
• Lose to Minnesota and get a top 3 pick. The least likely situation to happen based on the probability, but it would be amazing to get a top 3 pick. If the Canucks lose to Minnesota, the odds for winning the lottery pick are 12.5% per placeholder team drawn in the 1st lottery. NJ gets our 2021 unprotected 1st.

*I could be wrong with some of the calculations. I forget if draft placement is based on regular season or playoff success lol.

I haven't checked the rules so I'll rely on you here. So if Vancouver loses to Minnesota, Vancouver gets to keep their 1st round pick and has a chance to win the #1 overall pick?

 

[PecaFan]

Yes. If we lose to Minnesota, we officially miss the playoffs and are a lottery team, and therefore keep our pick.

After that, everything is essentially just like previous years, small chance to win the lottery, somebody will surely push us down the list, etc.

 

[Kryten]

In the future if the league keeps this playoff format to give more teams more money, I think the lottery should only be between the bottom 7-8 teams

 

[timw33]

In the future if the league keeps this playoff format to give more teams more money, I think the lottery should only be between the bottom 7-8 teams

They absolutely should not keep this playoff format. Essentially throws the regular season out the window when teams like CHI/MTL have a chance to upset a team in a Play In round.

 

[Kryten]

They absolutely should not keep this playoff format. Essentially throws the regular season out the window when teams like CHI/MTL have a chance to upset a team in a Play In round.

I agree completely but we are talking about a league where playoffs or no playoffs are decided by 3 on 3 and shootouts already. More teams playing more games means more money and that is all that matters for owners and players.

 

[sting101]

 

[rypper]

Good return to writing by Jackson. Still agree with his takes on timing and cost uncertainty, but Miller has been better then anyone thought.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

There's not enough love for JT Miller. Led his team in points on a squad with Pettersson and Boeser and Hughes and Horvat. That's seriously impressive. His quickness and skill really blew me away. His anticipation, awareness, creativity, and execution have been top notch but most impressively his compete level has been his best attribute. We have to talk about this guy in the same conversation as Pettersson and Hughes and Markstrom for team MVP. The fact that he was a bottom 6 player in Tampa was purely circumstantial I mean the GM decided to pay him top 6 $$$ so in hindsight Tampa made a huge mistake by dumping Miller instead of Tyler Johnson or Yani Gourde or even Alex Killhorn at this point - those 3 guys I mentioned are all 2-4 years older and worse than JT Miller is right now. I wonder if Benning cunningly swindled Miller out from underneath a rookie GM BriseBois? It's possible that he's easily worth another 1st now and we robbed Tampa blind of their crown jewel in the rough while leaving them holding the 29 year old 30 point scoring 5+ million dollar for 5 more years making Yani Gourde bag

 

[rypper]

There's not enough love for JT Miller. Led his team in points on a squad with Pettersson and Boeser and Hughes and Horvat. That's seriously impressive. His quickness and skill really blew me away. His anticipation, awareness, creativity, and execution have been top notch but most impressively his compete level has been his best attribute. We have to talk about this guy in the same conversation as Pettersson and Hughes and Markstrom for team MVP. The fact that he was a bottom 6 player in Tampa was purely circumstantial I mean the GM decided to pay him top 6 $$$ so in hindsight Tampa made a huge mistake by dumping Miller instead of Tyler Johnson or Yani Gourde or even Alex Killhorn at this point - those 3 guys I mentioned are all 2-4 years older and worse than JT Miller is right now. I wonder if Benning cunningly swindled Miller him out from underneath a rookie GM BriseBois? It's possible that he's easily worth another 1st now and we robbed Tampa blind while leaving them holding the 29 year old 30 point scoring 5+ million dollar making Yani Gourde bag.

Tampa's hand was forced by virtue of Miller being the only guy without trade protection.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Tampa's hand was forced by virtue of Miller being the only guy without trade protection.

Who gave them trade protection? They forced their own hand, nobody to blame but themselves.

 

[sting101]

At least he's owning some of his awful takes.

 

[sting101]

Tampa's hand was forced by virtue of Miller being the only guy without trade protection.

Was part of the issue but the takes that we should have been in a position of strength were completely wrong