Confirmed with Link: [VAN/MTL] Dale Weise for Raphael Diaz part III - the #FireTherrien edition

[Mue]

I'm not sure who is more amusing with their talent "analysis" Mathman or Moncton Scout....

Say what you will about his "analysis", but Mathman responds to those who disagree with him in a very engaging and polite manner – even when they probably don’t deserve it. I find it surprising how often posters feel the need to be condescending when replying to him.

If more posters conducted themselves like he does, this forum would be a pretty cool place to discuss and learn about hockey.

I thoroughly enjoy his insight and approach to player/game analysis - even if I don't agree with everything he says.

 

[Teufelsdreck]

Weise is 25. It's not like he has a lot more development in him; that's typically peak age. By contrast, Bournival is 21 and already has done well in tough minutes as Plekanec's LW in stretches.

Let me ask you then, what do you think the odds are that Weise amounts to more than a fourth-liner?

That's not the issue. Surely you realize that it's good to have four capable lines. The unit that played against Calgary looked better than any we've seen all season. I'd rather not see Blunden or Parros.

 

[MathMan]

That's not the issue. Surely you realize that it's good to have four capable lines. The unit that played against Calgary looked better than any we've seen all season. I'd rather not see Blunden or Parros.

Absolutely. But there are other fourth-liners besides Weise. We could have had Leblanc in and have a capable fourth line. I'd much rather have Leblanc and Diaz in the lineup than Weise and Murray.

As an aside, I'd really like to know what the org wants to do with Leblanc. Kid's a NHLer.

 

[Monctonscout]

That's not the issue. Surely you realize that it's good to have four capable lines. The unit that played against Calgary looked better than any we've seen all season. I'd rather not see Blunden or Parros.

It's still just one game. Maybe it's a flash in the pan because White and Weise had extra adrenaline...it happens.

If they can play like that every game it would be great, but at this point it's minuscule sampling of data. If Moen was healthy tonight who do you take out? Moen has to play, he's been our best grinder and excellent on PK this year.

 

[habitue*]

It's still just one game. Maybe it's a flash in the pan because White and Weise had extra adrenaline...it happens.

If they can play like that every game it would be great, but at this point it's minuscule sampling of data. If Moen was healthy tonight who do you take out? Moen has to play, he's been our best grinder and excellent on PK this year.

Diaz performance in his first game could also be a flash in the pan.


Look at thd team as a whole, not as a bunch of individual players. You will enjoy the Habs and hockey in general a lot more.

I would had kept Diaz a little more and leave Beaulieu at AHL level. But i am sure, Murray is a must on that d-squad.

 

[Monctonscout]

Diaz performance in his first game could also be a flash in the pan.


Look at thd team as a whole, not as a bunch of individual players. You will enjoy the Habs and hockey in general a lot more.

I don't recall anybody here using that to say he is a #1 or #2 d-man, I certainly never did.

 

[Sorinth]

We'll keep going around in circles so long as Diaz is viewed as more than a depth defenseman. I understand the analytics side to it and how a lot of NHL teams buy into advanced stats, however, why didn't any of them offer more than Weise?

Both Diaz and Weise are low-end assets, with Diaz having the better profile but discounted on account of his unsignability or unreasonable contractual demands. I don't know that this warrants a three-thread trial about Bergevin on its own, even though, Bergevin does have his misgivings.

How do you know they didn't? All we know is Bergevin felt Weise was the best offer, he could easily have overrated Weise due to size/toughness/character and turned down an offer of a better player who supposedly lacked character. It's not like it would be the first time.

 

[Grant McCagg]

How do you know they didn't? All we know is Bergevin felt Weise was the best offer, he could easily have overrated Weise due to size/toughness/character and turned down an offer of a better player who supposedly lacked character. It's not like it would be the first time.

Yeah - his lengthy GM history is rife with poorly evaluated trades - a fairer statement has never been uttered.

And of course..you...a whiny fan...could never easily underrate Weise due to knowing SFA about him and instead being prepared to bash Bergevin for every move no matter what.

 

[DAChampion]

Absolutely. But there are other fourth-liners besides Weise. We could have had Leblanc in and have a capable fourth line. I'd much rather have Leblanc and Diaz in the lineup than Weise and Murray.

As an aside, I'd really like to know what the org wants to do with Leblanc. Kid's a NHLer.

I expect us to lose LeBlanc to free agency, they won't qualify him.

 

[Runner77]

How do you know they didn't? All we know is Bergevin felt Weise was the best offer, he could easily have overrated Weise due to size/toughness/character and turned down an offer of a better player who supposedly lacked character. It's not like it would be the first time.

So we unpaid keyboard GMs, could have gotten more than Bergevin and his lackeys got for Diaz? Bergevin "overrated" Weise how -- he used internet sources, like us? And ignored those other ones about Diaz's analytics profile? Don't you think he's privy to a lot more info than any of us have on hand, most of ours is second-hand at best.

I see, so Bergevin was completely overwhelmed by the moar size conundrum, it's blinding his ability to decipher and process data points objectively.

I understand the displeasure of landing a fringe asset, however not every deal is about talent alone, it's also about talent you can hold on to and how an organization lacking depth can ill afford to lose NHL assets for nothing. In this case, an argument could be made that Diaz is a more useful player than Weise but only marginally so.

However, why would Bergevin purposely not accept an offer from a team making a higher evaluation of Diaz? That team probably didn't exist. Do I know for sure? Nope.

But, at some point, we need to stop splitting hairs. This is Diaz we're talking about -- every team has a Diaz, they just don't agonize over every minutiae attributable to this type of fringe player, the way we do.

 

[Runner77]

I don't recall anybody here using that to say he is a #1 or #2 d-man, I certainly never did.

To be fair, you repeatedly ascribed a higher value to Diaz than most. There are several posts of yours where you argue that Diaz is worth a 2nd rounder. That doesn't make him a first pairing by any long-shot, however, your assessment went beyond what the market decided Diaz was worth.

 

[DAChampion]

Calling people "internet GMs" is uncalled for, that is the whole point of this site.

 

[Jamie Thomas]

good post.


He does have something else he keeps bringing up that is almost as hilarious....that Weise is a fourth liner only. Never mind that he's only in his second NHL season and popped 29 goals at age 22 in the AHL, never mind that he played like a third liner in his first game in Montreal...MathMan knows for a fact that Weise will never play on the third line...again..even though if he really did his math..he would see that on a number of occasions Weise has already been a third-line player on the Canucks in his first two seasons.

That would be kinda like insisting Bournival will only ever be a fourth liner. We don't know these things....nobody knows these things...but Mathman knows...he did the math.

For a guy calling somebody out for not making his math, you should realize that Weise is in his 3rd complete NHL season, not his 2nd. Not that big a difference but when you try making fun of somebody...

 

[PricePkPatch*]

For a guy calling somebody out for not making his math, you should realize that Weise is in his 3rd complete NHL season, not his 2nd. Not that big a difference but when you try making fun of somebody...

So last year was a "Complete" season for you?

The kid played 80+40+40 games. That the equivalent of 2 complete seasons.

 

[Jamie Thomas]

So last year was a "Complete" season for you?

The kid played 80+40+40 games. That the equivalent of 2 complete seasons.

So because last year was only 48 games long, it doesn't count as an NHL season? Yeah we will disagree on that.

This is his 3rd NHL season.

 

[Sorinth]

Yeah - his lengthy GM history is rife with poorly evaluated trades - a fairer statement has never been uttered.

And of course..you...a whiny fan...could never easily underrate Weise due to knowing SFA about him and instead being prepared to bash Bergevin for every move no matter what.

Does it have to be a trade? Can we not take into count his other mis-evaluations of players?

I never said anything good/bad against Weise. He's a 4th liner, maybe he becomes more maybe he doesn't. But I happen to think Diaz is worth more than a 4th liner, and just because that's all Bergevin got for him doesn't mean that's all anybody was willing to pay for him.

So we unpaid keyboard GMs, could have gotten more than Bergevin and his lackeys got for Diaz? Bergevin "overrated" Weise how -- he used internet sources, like us? And ignored those other ones about Diaz's analytics profile? Don't you think he's privy to a lot more info than any of us have on hand, most of ours is second-hand at best.

I see, so Bergevin was completely overwhelmed by the moar size conundrum, it's blinding his ability to decipher and process data points objectively.

I understand the displeasure of landing a fringe asset, however not every deal is about talent alone, it's also about talent you can hold on to and how an organization lacking depth can ill afford to lose NHL assets for nothing. In this case, an argument could be made that Diaz is a more useful player than Weise but only marginally so.

However, why would Bergevin purposely not accept an offer from a team making a higher evaluation of Diaz? That team probably didn't exist. Do I know for sure? Nope.

But, at some point, we need to stop splitting hairs. This is Diaz we're talking about -- every team has a Diaz, they just don't agonize over every minutiae attributable to this type of fringe player, the way we do.

All I'm saying is you can't claim Diaz is only worth a 4th liner just because that's all Bergevin got for him. Maybe that's all Bergevin asked for and Vancouver was willing to throw in a pick if we had only asked? Maybe Bergevin had a choice between Weise and a more talented player but the talented player came with "supposed" attitude problems. Would it shock you if we went with Character guy?

For example Gomez wasn't worth McDonagh even though that's what we paid for him.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

So because last year was only 48 games long, it doesn't count as an NHL season? Yeah we will disagree on that.

This is his 3rd NHL season.

I am just saying that for some people, last season doesn't count as a full regular season

 

[Runner77]

Calling people "internet GMs" is uncalled for, that is the whole point of this site.

It's "keyboard GM" actually. It's totally fair game when using the term, one is including oneself, as I did.

By the same token, "How do you know Bergevin did or didn't" type comments should not be made either on a fan site, since quite obviously, if any of us were privy to Bergevin's decision-making, safe to say we would have little need to be speculating here.

 

[Runner77]

All I'm saying is you can't claim Diaz is only worth a 4th liner just because that's all Bergevin got for him.

I'm just trying to be pragmatic and have a modicum of belief that the market can be efficient most of the time. My contention is that Diaz as a RFA is worth more than Weise as a RFA. But where Diaz is a UFA, one can't just set that aside as a non-impacting factor.

Maybe that's all Bergevin asked for and Vancouver was willing to throw in a pick if we had only asked? Maybe Bergevin had a choice between Weise and a more talented player but the talented player came with "supposed" attitude problems. Would it shock you if we went with Character guy?

So much for all those classes Bergevin took under the very best in Chicago and building his way from the ground up. If you don't trust Bergevin enough to make even the most low-level of trades, then I can certainly understand your skepticism.

I'm no more a fan of Bergevin than you are, however, we need far more than a Diaz trade if we're going to be attacking his judgment.

For example Gomez wasn't worth McDonagh even though that's what we paid for him.

In the hands of an incompetent GM, McDonaugh was worth Gomez. Who's to say Bergevin's player procurement decisions are similarly flawed?

Plus, assuming that that you're right and Diaz largely outperforms the ceiling that some are ascribing to him here, it'll never be a mistake of McDonaugh-like proportions.

Just because Sather sold Cheerios to Gainey and told him they were seeds from which you can grow donuts, that doesn't mean Bergevin will be following suit.

 

[Monctonscout]

To be fair, you repeatedly ascribed a higher value to Diaz than most. There are several posts of yours where you argue that Diaz is worth a 2nd rounder. That doesn't make him a first pairing by any long-shot, however, your assessment went beyond what the market decided Diaz was worth.

Diaz SHOULD have been worth a 2nd rounder.

At the NHL trade deadline 2nd rounders fly for a lot less than 1st line/1st pair guys.

The problem is the Habs didn't exactly help his value barely playing him the last month. Either that or they saw something in Weise than the average fan didn't and see him evolving to a bigger role than 4th line(because a 2nd or 3rd to me definitely has more value than another 4th liner).

 

[Runner77]

Diaz SHOULD have been worth a 2nd rounder.

At the NHL trade deadline 2nd rounders fly for a lot less than 1st line/1st pair guys.

The problem is the Habs didn't exactly help his value barely playing him the last month. Either that or they saw something in Weise than the average fan didn't and see him evolving to a bigger role than 4th line(because a 2nd or 3rd to me definitely has more value than another 4th liner).

The Habs are trying to win games first and foremost. If they deem that sending one of their fringe players to the stands is the way to go, then so be it. Game-in and game-out moves are not made with an eye to trying to pump up any player's value -- it's the GM's job to sell a player for the most he can, whether he's in the stands or not, or whether he doesn't deserve to be there.

There are many ways to sell a player -- all GMs understand the human factor and ultimately, you need to let your coach make lineup decisions. You can always explain away as a GM that the coach did not see eye-to-eye with the player and made a TOI assessment that is independent of a player's arguable intrinsic value.

If Diaz were on some other team and we were trying to acquire him, and if we wanted him badly enough, we'd more than likely look past what his coach may have decided about his playing time. The Habs did not devalue Diaz as much as Diaz played to the low-ceiling level of his abilities. His abilities derived the trading counterpart, not that he was sent to the pressbox.

The NHL is littered with stories of players who were "unfairly" sent to the stands or misused. If this is all it took to trigger low-ball offers, then every GM falling for these wouldn't have a long shelf life. Ultimately, Diaz fetched what he did on the merits of what he was perceived to be worth -- if Bergevin purposely declined a much better offer, then yeah, he's an idiot. Allow me to highly doubt the proposition.

 

[Jesse Alexander]

Yeah - his lengthy GM history is rife with poorly evaluated trades - a fairer statement has never been uttered.

And of course..you...a whiny fan...could never easily underrate Weise due to knowing SFA about him and instead being prepared to bash Bergevin for every move no matter what.

Bouillon signing.

Murray signing.

Parros trade.

Briere signing.

That's a list of some pretty crap talent evaluation in just 2 years of trying.

 

[Hoople]

Say what you will about his "analysis", but Mathman responds to those who disagree with him in a very engaging and polite manner – even when they probably don’t deserve it. I find it surprising how often posters feel the need to be condescending when replying to him.

If more posters conducted themselves like he does, this forum would be a pretty cool place to discuss and learn about hockey.

I thoroughly enjoy his insight and approach to player/game analysis - even if I don't agree with everything he says.

Cant believe you overlooked this one.......

Tell me, prof, what sport do you play?

 

[PricePkPatch*]

Bouillon signing.

Murray signing.

Parros trade.

Briere signing.

That's a list of some pretty crap talent evaluation in just 2 years of trying.

Prust signing. How convenient your forget him

 

[Smokey Thompson]

Bouillon signing.

Murray signing.

Parros trade.

Briere signing.

That's a list of some pretty crap talent evaluation in just 2 years of trying.

I'd take those 4 moves over the ridiculous contracts given to the big name guys like Lecavalier and Clarkson.

Sure, there were some better cheap options available. But those 3/4 of those guys are on 1 year stop gap deals. Briere was mind boggling, but still only 2 years.