Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retained), 2023 3rd round pick, 2024 7th round pick for future considerations

[Bevans]

I'm not seeing it that way, at best it's ambiguous. Perhaps he thinks acquiring DeBrincat would have required Pinto + 16 OA instead of 7 + 39 and a 2024 3rd. That's a very different conversation imo.

With the gift of hindsight I have no idea why you'd assume pinto.

 

[Micklebot]

With the gift of hindsight I have no idea why you'd assume pinto.

well, I have the gift of hindsight showing me his post history it seems like a decent guess on what he might think...

All kidding aside, I think the market for Murray shifted a bit to our advantage in the days following the failed trade, and as I said elsewhere, historical cost of moving back from 7 to 16 is pretty high, somewhere between a 1st and a second is my guess. Some pick value charts suggest the drop would actually be worth a fair bit, blue Bullet for example suggests 7 to 16 is a 24 pts spread, or equivalent to picks 22 and 23.




With that in mind, you could make a convincing argument that dropping the pick to 16 would have at least added two 2nds to the cost, so:

16OA, 39 OA, 2023 2nd, 2024 2nd, 2024 3rd

compare that to

16 OA + Pinto

Is that far off in value?

 

[DaveMatthew]

well, I have the gift of hindsight showing me his post history it seems like a decent guess on what he might think...

All kidding aside, I think the market for Murray shifted a bit to our advantage in the days following the failed trade, and as I said elsewhere, historical cost of moving back from 7 to 16 is pretty high, somewhere between a 1st and a second is my guess. Some pick value charts suggest the drop would actually be worth a fair bit, blue Bullet for example suggests 7 to 16 is a 24 pts spread, or equivalent to picks 22 and 23.




With that in mind, you could make a convincing argument that dropping the pick to 16 would have at least added two 2nds to the cost, so:

16OA, 39 OA, 2023 2nd, 2024 2nd, 2024 3rd

compare that to

16 OA + Pinto

Is that far off in value?

Think you have to factor in the circumstances of this being the COVID draft class. Teams looked at it and saw fewer tiers of players, and as a result, higher picks had less value.

Look at some other trades. In previous years, a player with the question marks that Romanov has would never net the 13th OA pick. That pick would typically only be in the conversation for an established top 6 or top 4 player. But not this year.

 

[Sweatred]

did anybody suggest that though? I mean, maybe when the new first broke that we acquired DeBrincat, but it came out pretty quick that we had a contingency plan to still get DeBrincat (or rather this was the contingency plan)

Yes … it’s still getting pushed around here … there’s literally a thread devoted to thanking Murray for something that didn’t remotely happen.

 

[Micklebot]

Think you have to factor in the circumstances of this being the COVID draft class. Teams looked at it and saw fewer tiers of players, and as a result, higher picks had less value.

Look at some other trades. In previous years, a player with the question marks that Romanov has would never net the 13th OA pick. That pick would typically only be in the conversation for an established top 6 or top 4 player. But not this year.

Every year has tiers of players. I looked at trades over the years including the closest analogous trade from this year, Arz moving from 11 to 27. Larger drop but less valuable starting pick, cost two 2nds good seconds (36 and 45).

I'm pretty confident in my analysis of the cost of moving back. Teams are also very reluctant to move top 10 picks in any draft. Moving out of the top 10 is a really rare event.

 

[sfulefty]

Yeah this is actually probably a win for TO. Murray will be solid and they got two picks out of it. If he’s solid for them then they have him at a good salary too.

Meanwhile we just gave away two picks to get the terrible contract off the books after trading a 2nd and gruden for him.

Anyway, too early to say who benefits most. It depends on how he performs. But Dorion shouldn’t get any credit for wasting time cleaning up his godawful messes.

Some good points to consider. Could also look at another way, and say that Toronto's starting goalie to lead them to the promised land is now a guy that was on waivers earlier this year, that nobody wanted to claim. And instead of committing $5 million to Frederick Anderson (.922 SV% and 2.12 GAA) or Jack Campbell (voted to the all-star team, 48-12-8 last 2 seasons with Toronto), they are now paying roughly the same for a player who was on waivers earlier this year, and has been limited to 47 games the past 2 seasons.

Hope he returns to form. But definitely a risky move for Toronto.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Every year has tiers of players. I looked at trades over the years including the closest analogous trade from this year, Arz moving from 11 to 27. Larger drop but less valuable starting pick, cost two 2nds good seconds (36 and 45).

I'm pretty confident in my analysis of the cost of moving back. Teams are also very reluctant to move top 10 picks in any draft. Moving out of the top 10 is a really rare event.

Right, but my point is that this draft was nothing like we've ever seen before, largely due to the scouting and development gaps created by Covid.

Romanov, in a normal draft year, would never be close to enough value for 13OA. But he was this year.

A 1st rounder this year, even at the top of the draft, had diminished value.

 

[Micklebot]

Yes … it’s still getting pushed around here … there’s literally a thread devoted to thanking Murray for something that didn’t remotely happen.

can you cite specific examples? Being happy that Murray blocked a trade does not mean you think making that trade meant we wouldn't have still acquired DeBrincat. Early on that was certainly a fear, but it was pretty quickly confirmed that we would have still made a trade for DeBrincat, I don't think anybody is still suggesting we'd have lost out on DeBrincat had Murray accepted a trade to Buffalo, they are just speculating on what the additional cost would have been, which, who knows. My guess is one of our D prospects, but idk.

 

[Sweatred]

Right, but my point is that this draft was nothing like we've ever seen before, largely due to the scouting and development gaps created by Covid.

Romanov, in a normal draft year, would never be close to enough value for 13OA. But he was this year.

A 1st rounder this year, even at the top of the draft, had diminished value.

This is a guy with head issues who was basically forced to sign onto a rebuilding tire fire. His first two years were his lowest paying years . I have no idea how his personal motivation influenced his play but he never appeared interested or committed to carrying this team.

Now he’s plunked onto a Stanley cup contender - I think we’ll see him in more games and trying harder assuming he can survive the first bump he gets.

He’s going to get physically targeted next Spring by any team who thinks the leafs are in their way .

 

[2CHAINZ]

You guys remember when Leaf fans said 50% retained + Pinto ?

 

[Micklebot]

Right, but my point is that this draft was nothing like we've ever seen before, largely due to the scouting and development gaps created by Covid.

Romanov, in a normal draft year, would never be close to enough value for 13OA. But he was this year.

A 1st rounder this year, even at the top of the draft, had diminished value.

Romanov is a 22 year old that played 20 mins a night last year. Perhaps you just don't have the same valuation of him as NHL Gms?

I mean, the counter point is that it only cost 7 a 2nd an a 3rd to get a mutli 40 goal scoring 24 year old. only cost 19 and a prospect to get Fiala, heck a recent 3rd OA in Dach was traded for 13OA, clearly this year's picks had value if we paid less to get DeBrincat, Fiala and Dach than anyone expected.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Romanov is a 22 year old that played 20 mins a night last year. Perhaps you just don't have the same valuation of him as NHL Gms?

I mean, the counter point is that it only cost 7 a 2nd an a 3rd to get a mutli 40 goal scoring 25 year old. only cost 19 and a prospect to get Fiala, heck a recent 3rd OA in Dach was traded for 13OA, clearly this year's picks had value if we paid less to get DeBrincat, Fiala and Dach than anyone expected.

Romanov played 22 minutes a night because he was on the worst team in the league that was absolutely demolished by injuries.

The Chicago trade was made by a team that's tearing it down like no other has torn it down other than our own Senators. The Fiala trade was made by a team that's going to have almost $14M of dead cap for the next 3 seasons.

Obviously every trade has circumstances driving it, but this draft was just so wacky that I'm not sure I'd use pick values from previous years to try and make sense of it.

I mean, even look at the Leafs moves based on this chart: Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey.

They went from 25 (181.80 pts) to 38 (101.64 pts) to unload Mrazek and clear $3.8M in salary - a loss of 80 points.

Then a couple of days later, they received a 3rd and 7th (a gain of ~10-16 points, depending where those picks land) to take on Murray and add $4.75M in salary.

The logic doesn't add up if you based it on the draft value charts.

 

[Micklebot]

Romanov played 22 minutes a night because he was on the worst team in the league that was absolutely demolished by injuries.

If you say so. I think teams value his play style. He's young and has upside. I suspect he'll be a top 4 d in the future to be honest,

The Chicago trade was made by a team that's tearing it down like no other has torn it down other than our own Senators. The Fiala trade was made by a team that's going to have almost $14M of dead cap for the next 3 seasons.

Obviously every trade has circumstances driving it, but this draft was just so wacky that I'm not sure I'd use pick values from previous years to try and make sense of it.

I mean, even look at the Leafs moves based on this chart: Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey.

They went from 25 (181.80 pts) to 38 (101.64 pts) to unload Mrazek and clear $3.8M in salary - a loss of 80 points.

Then a couple of days later, they received a 3rd and 7th (a gain of ~10-16 points, depending where those picks land) to take on Murray and add $4.75M in salary.

The logic doesn't add up if you based it on the draft value charts.

Sure, but I went with value well below what the value charts suggested when I went with two 2nds. I took a fairly conservative approach. The charts fail because changing Tiers are what matters and charts show gradual change. We almost certainly changed tiers going from 7 to 16, and that likely costs you a couple 2nds or more historically. That's where I'm coming from. I think it's wishful thinking that we'd get away with a minimal add had it been for 16 vice 7, my guess, as I've repeated a couple times, is at least one of JBD, Brannstrom or Thomson.

So, taking it back to the original point, how far off is:

16 OA, Pinto

vs

16 OA, Brannstrom/JBD/Thomson, 39 OA and a 3rd,

To some, that's a big difference, to others, perhaps not. If you see Pinto as the next Pageau, they might be pretty even. I you see him as a top 6 guy, you probably prefer the second option by a health margin, but my point was simply that it's a defensible position to think a piece like Pinto or Greig would have been the ask to offset the difference between 7 and 16.

 

[Icelevel]

Bad take. All GMs make mistakes, getting out from under your mistakes is the secret.

He makes so many mistakes and spends so much time trying to fix them that it takes away a huge amount of time from taking actual forward steps.
Bringing in crap forwards and dmen and then trying to get rid of them, giving out ridiculous contracts and then trying to unload/buy them out.

That’s not what you want your gm spending the majority of his time doing.

Yes they can be expected to make some mistakes but not as many as he’s made especially of that magnitude.

I’m not giving him credit for repairing the car he keeps crashing.

 

[Tragedy]

He makes so many mistakes and spends so much time trying to fix them that it takes away a huge amount of time from taking actual forward steps.
Bringing in crap forwards and dmen and then trying to get rid of them, giving out ridiculous contracts and then trying to unload/buy them out.

That’s not what you want your gm spending the majority of his time doing.

Yes they can be expected to make some mistakes but not as many as he’s made especially of that magnitude.

I’m not giving him credit for repairing the car he keeps crashing.

I've said countless times that Dorion was running a marathon with an 800 pound gorilla on his back. However, there is no reason he should have kept tripping over his own shoelaces with all the bad decisions he made with what little money we had available. That all being said, I think in the few moves made since EM's passing have been much better and show a glimmer of promise of what might be possible if Pierre has some flexibility with the budget.

 

[Icelevel]

I've said countless times that Dorion was running a marathon with an 800 pound gorilla on his back. However, there is no reason he should have kept tripping over his own shoelaces with all the bad decisions he made with what little money we had available. That all being said, I think in the few moves made since EM's passing have been much better and show a glimmer of promise of what might be possible if Pierre has some flexibility with the budget.

Yeah if this the new trend then all good. The moves on their own are good so keep it up and then we can wipe the memory of the terrible trades and mop ups.

 

[Cosmix]

I can't wait until we play the Laughs and fill the net. Our players should know Murray's weaknesses.

The weakness: He does not stay in the net!

 

[cudi]

 

[Cosmix]

Awesome. Love this! Distraction gone and money freed up.

If there's one thing I will definitely give Dorion, it's that he's willing to admit a mistake and move on. Good job by him on this imo.

The problem is that Dorion makes too many mistakes that he has to clean up!

 

[Cosmix]

So what's the goalie situation now Sens fans? The anchor is gone, is Dorion going shopping for a new keeper or running with what he has?

Run with Forsberg & Gustavsson. Get a top 4 D which will help reduce GA and increase GF.

 

[Cosmix]

Excellent question. Would love to hear Friedman or someone knowledgeable answer this.

Friedman?

 

[ChickenDinner]

On one hand it's great we got rid of him

On the other hand Murray cost us, what? 2 2nds, a 3rd, a 7th, and 1.5m on the cap for him to hopefully stink up toronto?

not sure if that a winner winner move

 

[Bevans]

Friedman?

Elliott Friedman

 

[Cosmix]

Yeah if this the new trend then all good. The moves on their own are good so keep it up and then we can wipe the memory of the terrible trades and mop ups.

Personally I hope Dorion does not screw up future trades and draft picks; however, I have no confidence that he will make good trades and picks in the future.

Elliott Friedman

I would prefer someone else like McKenzie.

 

[cudi]

Personally I hope Dorion does not screw up future trades and draft picks; however, I have no confidence that he will make good trades and picks in the future.


I would prefer someone else like McKenzie.

McKenzie is all but retired. Just does the draft stuff now