Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] Marner re-signs (6 years, $10.893M AAV) Part II

[TomasHertlsRooster]

We'll say an average team. Obviously if it's a bottom feeder, you take the picks and run. But if it were an average team looking to compete?

Match it. Even if you don’t feel he’s worth that money and want to liquidate his value, you’re still better off waiting a year and then trading him on your own terms.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Set for years with what? First round exits? That's all they have proven this roster can accomplish so far. Anything else is a projection/guess.

LOL. Matthews, Marner and Nylander were 19, 20, 21 years old the last few years. Not many 19, 20, 21 year olds can carry their teams to a Cup. It takes more than 15 seconds, Son!!

Now that they're ripe old ages like 22 and 23.......things will start to happen that way.

They've already proven that as kids, grown men on other teams can't handle them. It'll be fun watching them compete as men, against men....won't it?

Yay!!

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Match it. Even if you don’t feel he’s worth that money and want to liquidate his value, you’re still better off waiting a year and then trading him on your own terms.

I figured. I'm glad it didn't come to that, despite all the rumours that were floated out there through the summer from questionable sources.

 

[JeremyTB]

Marner's tweet afterwards saying he is exactly where he wants to be, infront of the greatest fans in the world seemed like he was doing damage control trying to take some of the heat off him when it comes to the fanbase.

Translation: "I am exactly where I want to be, for $10.8 Million per. But anyways him adding the "Infront of the greatest fans in the world" was such a please don't boo me line.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Who did he sign it with?

With you. Or anyone. It doesn't matter.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Marner's tweet afterwards saying he is exactly where he wants to be, infront of the greatest fans in the world seemed like he was doing damage control trying to take some of the heat off him when it comes to the fanbase.

Translation: "I am exactly where I want to be, for $10.8 Million per. But anyways him adding the "Infront of the greatest fans in the world" was such a please don't boo me line.

Sure, through your filter it translates that way.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Match it. Even if you don’t feel he’s worth that money and want to liquidate his value, you’re still better off waiting a year and then trading him on your own terms.

So you perceive market value to be at least $12m. Leafs got him at at least a $1.2m discount in your opinion. Not bad

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

So you perceive market value to be at least $12m. Leafs got him at at least a $1.2m discount in your opinion. Not bad

Yeah, that’s a straw man argument if I’ve ever seen one. Market value on a 6-year term is around 9.5M for Marner.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yeah, that’s a straw man argument if I’ve ever seen one. Market value on a 6-year term is around 9.5M for Marner.

Except you yourself would sign a $12mx5 contract.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Except you yourself would sign a $12m contract.

If given the choice between that and 4 first round picks from an average team that would become above average by adding Marner, I would begrudgingly match it.

I also would match an offer sheet at considerably more than market value for most of today’s RFAs if I were the GM.

That doesn’t mean market value is even close to $12M.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Yeah, that’s a straw man argument if I’ve ever seen one. Market value on a 6-year term is around 9.5M for Marner.

So at most, he's 1.4 million overpaid, compared to countless of other players on other teams who are WAAAAY more overpaid than that.

Sweet!!

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If given the choice between that and 4 first round picks from an average team that would become above average by adding Marner, I would begrudgingly match it.

I also would match an offer sheet at considerably more than market value for most of today’s RFAs if I were the GM.

That doesn’t mean market value is even close to $12M.

The value at which his services could be willing to be bought for on the market.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

So at most, he's 1.4 million overpaid, compared to countless of other players on other teams who are WAAAAY more overpaid than that.

Sweet!!

And his lack of understanding of PP production easily closes that 1.4m gap.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The value at which his services could be willing to be bought for on the market.

Except that’s really not how market value works. Pretty much everybody acknowledges that in order to get an RFA to sign an offer sheet, you need to pay them more than market value.

Also, what reports are you looking at which say that he was going to be offer sheeted at $12M or whatever? I remember Dreger saying he would get $14M/5Y, but that is a pretty dubious source.

And his lack of understanding of PP production easily closes that 1.4m gap.

Yup. I’m sure that lack of understanding will be made clear as day when Travis Konecny signs for more than Mikko Rantanen.

 

[ToDavid]

Well, undoubtedly not a great contract.

But now I move on. Marner, Matthews, and Nylander will be playing for the Leafs this year and that’s great. He can and he did.

Next year’s contracts are next year’s problems.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Except you yourself would sign a $12mx5 contract.

This is BS. Context of the situation matters. @JoeThorntonsRooster and I were discussing a gun-to-the-head offer-sheet scenario. That's got nothing to do with market value.

 

[Hasa92]

With this contract finally signed, does this push other contract negotations forward as well?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Except that’s really not how market value works. Pretty much everybody acknowledges that in order to get an RFA to sign an offer sheet, you need to pay them more than market value.

Market value is what an actor in good faith is willing to pay. Do you mean pay mare than some comparable analysis might suggest?

Yup. I’m sure that lack of understanding will be made clear as day when Travis Konecny signs for more than Mikko Rantanen.

You still think I mean ignore PP time. Not surprised.

Here is the offersheet report:


Marner did not sign because he was concerned Leafs wouldn’t match. Instead signed at a discount.

This is BS. Context of the situation matters. @JoeThorntonsRooster and I were discussing a gun-to-the-head offer-sheet scenario. That's got nothing to do with market value.

No gun. He thinks Marner @ 12m is worth more than 4 1st rounders which is the standard compensation of the market.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

We can and we will

Overpay and cripple your roster? sure

 

[7even]

Marner's tweet afterwards saying he is exactly where he wants to be, infront of the greatest fans in the world seemed like he was doing damage control trying to take some of the heat off him when it comes to the fanbase.

Translation: "I am exactly where I want to be, for $10.8 Million per. But anyways him adding the "Infront of the greatest fans in the world" was such a please don't boo me line.

Literally every player sends that tweet out after they sign

 

[7even]

Overpay and cripple your roster? sure

True, this is the worst Leafs roster I've seen in my lifetime, and that's saying something

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

So much salt in this thread. People can't handle that Dubas got the signed and have to take shots like this or run around screaming about next year. Leafs are icing a good team, and will prove people wrong again. Nothing will change, people will pretend they never said these things and pick something else.

Enough with the victim complex already, it got old when you first signed JT

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Market value is what an actor in good faith is willing to pay. Do you mean pay mare than some comparable analysis might suggest?



You still think I mean ignore PP time. Not surprised.

Here is the offersheet report:


Marner did not sign because he was concerned Leafs wouldn’t match. Instead signed at a discount.



No gun. He thinks Marner @ 12m is worth more than 4 1st rounders which is the standard compensation of the market.

And in this case, I wouldn’t even be acting in good faith matching an offer sheet since the crux of my decision would be based on ultimately extracting the most value out of the player in either scenario. Trading him on your own terms with 5 years left on his contract is better than taking 4 first round picks from a good team. Especially for a team like Toronto who wants to contend in each of those years.

Rantanen played about 450 more PP minutes than Konecny over their ELCs. Konecny out-scored him at 5V5 per 60 minutes and won’t get paid in the same stratosphere as Rantanen. He will probably get less than half. That’s just one example of how flawed your 5V5 P/60 analysis is when it comes to contracts. Timo Meier’s contract Vs. Sebastian Aho’s contract that have both already been signed is another example when Meier out-produced him per-60 at 5V5 throughout their entire ELCs and significantly so in their contract years.

That Tweet literally says that a team was considering presenting him with an offer sheet. It doesn’t even say that he was presented with it. And the source is Joey Vendetta. It’s very possible that it was pushed by Marner’s camp just like the 14/5Y offer sheet was pushed by Dreger.

By your logic, just about every single RFA ever has taken an extreme discount, and a much larger one than Marner. That isn’t really how things work.

 

[CatchyTune]

Overpay and cripple your roster? sure

Marleau and Zaitsev are no longer on the team. All I see is a team with elite young talent locked up for 5+ years

 

[shortfuze]

Less of an overpay than Matthews was, so I’ll give dubas that.

But we all know rn that leaf fans are wishing Lou stayed on board a little while longer

So we can listen to all the Marleau and Zaitsev signings again? I don’t think so.