Speculation: Too many "ifs" next season should make Toronto struggle make the playoffs

[LeafFever]

New Jersey Devils should worry. Not the Leafs.

 

[Liferleafer]

I really like the odds of Kapanen and Johnsson replacing JVR's goals. I think Marner/Matthews/Nylander have their biggest seasons yet.

They are playing for their payday....you can be dam sure they will light it up this season.

 

[LeafFever]

They are playing for their payday....you can be dam sure they will light it up this season.

I really think anyone saying they might miss the playoffs expects zero growth from all 3 or regression. I just don't see it.

 

[ottomaddox]

You never know what unexpected developments might occur and for that reason, I'd be reluctant to put our chances of making the playoffs at higher than 90% as of today. I don't think there are many teams with a higher number though so I haven't a clue why you're worried.

I am only worried if we are relying on the ifs.

I know this thread topic is a tad early, but I don't care for all the ifs (including the Tavares if).

I think that Dubas will be active soon. I hope he has a hell of a good two weeks (draft, July 1st, trades, etc.)

Leo Komarov was the only expiring UFA that didn't play in the playoffs this year. 5 others might likely be gone. I just don't think Dubas will fill those holes with Marlies.

He has to have a good draft, he has to sign UFAs and he has to make trades. If he can sign 2 UFAs and make a trade I'll be convinced that TOR will be back in 3rd place.

 

[LeafFever]

Boston and Tampa are not locks for 1st and 2nd in the division at all.

 

[Liferleafer]

I really think anyone saying they might miss the playoffs expects zero growth from all 3 or regression. I just don't see it.

I agree. I think the team is better minus JVR/komorov but plus Johnsson/Alto. I wouldn't mind bringing Bozak back as 3C (i don't believe for a second that we land Tavares).

 

[ottomaddox]

Boston and Tampa are not locks for 1st and 2nd in the division at all.

Agreed, but then again I don't expect FLA to be a lock for 4th place in the Atlantic.

 

[Hockeyholic]

No.

I could care less about who we are losing. Their success doesn't hinge on re-signing JVR, Bozak, Moore, Plekanec, Komarov, and Polak.

I hope that Dubas isn't relying on graduating Marlies.

He needs to kick arse in trades, UFAs and drafting.

Dubas can't do everything in one summer.

 

[LeafFever]

I am very excited about Johnsson and Kapanen getting bigger roles. You don't need an expensive UFA replacement to get if JVR leaves.

 

[ottomaddox]

When making an argument, it's important to differentiate between
" I could care less" ( Meaning you do care), and "couldn't care less" ( You don't care).

Noted. I could clean it up, but I think my argument is still clear.

 

[Menzinger]

I don’t know why anybody should be overly worried at this point, the Habs and Sens are complete tire fires and getting worse. And Hoffman is a good player but Florida is still a bad team and is poorly managed.

 

[rent free]

I don’t know why anybody should be overly worried at this point, the Habs and Sens are complete fire fires and getting worse. And Hoffman is a good player but Florida is still a bad team and is poorly managed.

florida isn't a bad team. they are a decent team that is young, like the leafs, and will probably improve from last seasons. they were one of the best second half teams last season.

 

[Pookie]

Many fans seem to have little concern about the roster next season. I think many fans think that most of the UFA holes will be filled with graduating Marlies.

Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov potentially all gone.

That's a grand total of 6 players to replace.

I know many of you can name off every Marlie plus Leivo and I still wouldn't be satisfied.

On paper the current team plus Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov means 2nd or 3rd in the Atlantic. This current team plus all the "ifs" means no playoffs or possibly a wildcard spot.

The "ifs" are from a positive fans' perspective: if we trade for a D, if we find a couple of centers to replace the 3 that we lost, if the Marlies play well as NHLers, if Nylander plays center, if our elite prospects take a step, if no other Atlantic conference team takes a step, etc.

I just can't see us hitting a homerun with free agency, contracts, trades, and our Marlie Graduates creating a better team next year.

IMHO leaf fans can't be comfortable with this offseason, and I really can't see TOR to be better than a wildcard team.

Do you think TOR will be better next season? How so?

Good post.

With their own rentals walking for nothing they will be weaker by definition and have nothing but another first round exit to show for it.

NHL is parity driven though so they should be competitive with the middle of the pack.

Now sign JT and make a bold trade for D.... and I think we are in a good place.

 

[Buds17]

I don’t know why anybody should be overly worried at this point, the Habs and Sens are complete fire fires and getting worse. And Hoffman is a good player but Florida is still a bad team and is poorly managed.

Not to say I think the Leafs will drop at all, but it's also possible that the Atlantic has more than three teams in the playoffs next season.

 

[TMLeafs18]

Polak - is easily replaceable from what I have seen from Holl with the leafs and Marlies he could jump in and fill those shoes and more.

Komarov - was already replaced by the end of the season between Johnsson and Kappy being full time he didn’t have a spot on this roster anymore

Moore - Hardly played for us easily replaces won’t be missed

Plekanec and Bozak - both were solid we currently don’t really have a good answer at center I’m really hoping they address this in the coming months

JVR - between Johnsson and Kappy one of them will be getting more offensive role which should increase their offensive production. Both are also already much better defensively. JVR goals will be tough to replace but we have the talent and depth to do it.

 

[seanlinden]

I think it's highly unrealistic to consider the possibility that the Leafs allow JvR, Bozak, Komarov & Polak all to walk, without spending some additional money in free agency.

If the season started today with an $80m cap, Toronto would have over $27m in cap space, to fill out 8 roster spots. Let's say, in an worst case scenario, they sign sign Nylander for $7m. It leaves them with just over $20m to fill out 7 roster spots.

Those roster spots are:
#3, #4, and #5 centres. (To go along with Kadri & Matthews)
Ideally a top line winger (Nylander, Marner, Marleau theoretically round out the top 6 on the depth chart, Hyman, Brown, Leivo and Kapanen round out the 3rd line on the depth chart, with Martin filling a "13th/14th forward" role.
3 defencemen - of which you're really only looking for 1 top 4 guy.

Let's say you spend $1.5m each on a set of #6 and #7 defencemen, and $1.5m each on a #4 and #5 centre. Personally, I think that's even high, because some of those will be marlies. That leaves you with $14m to sign 3 players -- a #3 centre, a winger, and a defenceman. The Leafs can fill two of those positions with very good players at $5m+.

 

[Fogelhund]

I think it's highly unrealistic to consider the possibility that the Leafs allow JvR, Bozak, Komarov & Polak all to walk, without spending some additional money in free agency.

If the season started today with an $80m cap, Toronto would have over $27m in cap space, to fill out 8 roster spots. Let's say, in an worst case scenario, they sign sign Nylander for $7m. It leaves them with just over $20m to fill out 7 roster spots.

Those roster spots are:
#3, #4, and #5 centres. (To go along with Kadri & Matthews)
Ideally a top line winger (Nylander, Marner, Marleau theoretically round out the top 6 on the depth chart, Hyman, Brown, Leivo and Kapanen round out the 3rd line on the depth chart, with Martin filling a "13th/14th forward" role.
3 defencemen - of which you're really only looking for 1 top 4 guy.

Let's say you spend $1.5m each on a set of #6 and #7 defencemen, and $1.5m each on a #4 and #5 centre. Personally, I think that's even high, because some of those will be marlies. That leaves you with $14m to sign 3 players -- a #3 centre, a winger, and a defenceman. The Leafs can fill two of those positions with very good players at $5m+.

Don't forget that they can put Horton on LTIR as well, and open up another approx $5 mil.

 

[Boutette]

Don't forget that they can put Horton on LTIR as well, and open up another approx $5 mil.

I guess you are hoping that Matthews gets injured again so the team won't have to pay his bonuses (as well as any others) that will have to be added to 2019 when the team will have to deal with him, Marner, Kapanen and maybe several others getting major raises when they hit RFA status.

 

[Fogelhund]

I guess you are hoping that Matthews gets injured again so the team won't have to pay his bonuses (as well as any others) that will have to be added to 2019 when the team will have to deal with him, Marner, Kapanen and maybe several others getting major raises when they hit RFA status.

Say what now? You really do say some bizarre stuff, and come to weird assumptions.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Maybe we should start another thread called "Too few if's should mean Toronto cruises to the playoffs".

Our goalie's back, all our Dmen are back, the coach is back, all our best forwards are back and many of our best players are so young they should be better next year and in some cases they should be substantially better. The only players of note not back are a PP specialist who is unremarkable at even strength and a FO specialist who is decent but nothing special. Plus we have a ton of cap space to burn so no doubt we will be adding some talent plus we have some prospects kicking at the door. So bottom line is WTF is this thread?

A discussion around whether or not we'll improve on last years 105 points might be interesting. Fearing we might miss the playoffs is just LOL.

 

[ottomaddox]

Maybe we should start another thread called "Too few if's should mean Toronto cruises to the playoffs".

Our goalie's back, all our Dmen are back, the coach is back, all our best forwards are back and many of our best players are so young they should be better next year and in some cases they should be substantially better. The only players of note not back are a PP specialist who is unremarkable at even strength and a FO specialist who is decent but nothing special. Plus we have a ton of cap space to burn so no doubt we will be adding some talent plus we have some prospects kicking at the door. So bottom line is WTF is this thread?

A discussion around whether or not we'll improve on last years 105 points might be interesting. Fearing we might miss the playoffs is just LOL.

Struggle to make the playoffs and not make the playoffs are different things.

I am suggesting that they may struggle to be 3ed or a wildcard team (if Dubas doesn't have a big offseason).

 

[Nineteen67]

Maybe we should start another thread called "Too few if's should mean Toronto cruises to the playoffs".

Our goalie's back, all our Dmen are back, the coach is back, all our best forwards are back and many of our best players are so young they should be better next year and in some cases they should be substantially better. The only players of note not back are a PP specialist who is unremarkable at even strength and a FO specialist who is decent but nothing special. Plus we have a ton of cap space to burn so no doubt we will be adding some talent plus we have some prospects kicking at the door. So bottom line is WTF is this thread?

A discussion around whether or not we'll improve on last years 105 points might be interesting. Fearing we might miss the playoffs is just LOL.

The Leafs won a lot of games last year that they were badly out played and badly out chanced. If 3 to 5 of those games turn the other way they’re on a battle for a playoff spot.

If they don’t change their team defence they’ll just spin their tires and waste another year. Last year, we knew on Jan. 01 the Leafs were not a contender.

 

[Liminality]

The Leafs won a lot of games last year that they were badly out played and badly out chanced. If 3 to 5 of those games turn the other way they’re on a battle for a playoff spot.

If they don’t change their team defence they’ll just spin their tires and waste another year. Last year, we knew on Jan. 01 the Leafs were not a contender.

They had games they dominated and should have won too, that's just how it goes sometimes.

 

[Nineteen67]

They had games they dominated and should have won too, that's just how it goes sometimes.

A couple, yes.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The Leafs won a lot of games last year that they were badly out played and badly out chanced. If 3 to 5 of those games turn the other way they’re on a battle for a playoff spot.

If they don’t change their team defence they’ll just spin their tires and waste another year. Last year, we knew on Jan. 01 the Leafs were not a contender.

Was last year a wasted year?