Speculation: The Worst UFA contract of 2016

[Seedling]

So looks like everyone is going with "Whoever signs in Edmonton." Typical HF.

Stamkos is the easy answer.

 

[tigermask48]

Demers will get 4.5 mill with term
Lucic will get 5 mill with term

If Lucic was getting anywhere around low 5 he'd be with the Kings. 6 is likely the lowest he'd even consider and he's probably asking for 7-8 per.

 

[LastWordArmy]

I think Boedkker will be massively overpaid.

 

[McShogun99]

Lucic or Demers

As a desperate Oiler fan I'll have to agree with this unless both players take discounts.

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

If Lucic was getting anywhere around low 5 he'd be with the Kings. 6 is likely the lowest he'd even consider and he's probably asking for 7-8 per.

That poster is convinced Lucic and Demers are going to take discounts to play with Edmonton

I LOVE off-season

 

[Fire Sweeney]

Backs

 

[Highmarker]

If Lucic was getting anywhere around low 5 he'd be with the Kings. 6 is likely the lowest he'd even consider and he's probably asking for 7-8 per.

I think he didn't resign with the Kings because they weren't willing to give him a long term contract.
There is no chance he will get 7-8 million.

I think he will sign with Edmonton in the 5 - 5.5 range for 6-7 years.

 

[Spurgeon46]

I think Boedkker will be massively overpaid.

4.5Mx4 from EDM?

 

[Highmarker]

That poster is convinced Lucic and Demers are going to take discounts to play with Edmonton

I LOVE off-season

wait and see i guess. I feel like there is a better chance of that happening than anyone throwing 7 million dollars at Lucic.

 

[Off Sides]

Pretty much all of them?

Is there a list of ufa signings that really worked out, like where the player changed teams and went on to be a large part of that teams success? I guess Chara, maybe Hossa, but that is about all I can think of.

 

[fsanford]

I really doubt we will. That's the whole point of the arena visits, and of course we're selling them on that we're a team on the rise. We have cap space today, but Chiarelli will be talking to them about our long term cap situation. I think that matters more than most think, and might be a big reason that Seth Jones signed for a bit less in Columbus.

I am thinking LA had a nice discussion about cap situation, and how they are team that is built to win now. Did not produce any dividends, and Lucic said he wanted to stay there if at all possible.

Lucic will gety 6 x 6 years, or 5.5 for 7 years from someone. Its his last payday.

Jones was an RFA, and while its a good deal, that is a nice score for an RFA who still has a lot to prove.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Stamkos for sure or Ladd if he gets long term at over 5.5 a year.

But I'll go Jacob Trouba if Boston offersheets him. Not a UFA but a massive massive overpayment for sure.

 

[Stuzchuk]

Lucic or Demers

this...

 

[BruinDust]

Easy

Matt Martin

 

[nbwingsfan]

Anything over the current $6M Lucic gets will look pretty bad in a few years. I'll go with him

 

[jw2]

E Staal, Martin, Backes, Vrbata, Brouwer, Chimera

That's my list.

Staal and Backes will be the worst.

 

[Zrhutch]

Russell is a mistake at any price, so him.

 

[danfromwaterloo]

All gonna depend on the dollars. Stamkos at <$10 will be a reasonable contract. >$10 will be a war crime if he doesn't regain full ultra-elite form.

Granted he's a fair bit better, but remember when Brad Richards was the prized possession that everybody wanted a piece of? 6.6M for 9 years, which at the time was SERIOUS money (and also apparently a bit less than what everybody was offering). That top UFA pick turned into a horror movie. Stamkos at 12M for 6 years could be an albatross in years 3-6 if his broken leg and blood clots and who knows what else diminish his ability to perform.

 

[danfromwaterloo]

Stamkos for sure or Ladd if he gets long term at over 5.5 a year.

But I'll go Jacob Trouba if Boston offersheets him. Not a UFA but a massive massive overpayment for sure.

Ladd will find someone who will pay him 6.5-7 at term.

 

[Holy Jokinen]

Weise

 

[SenzZen]

Oh look- another "pile on the Oilers" thread!

HF loving that low-hanging fruit...

Russell is a mistake at any price, so him.

Why so salty, guy?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

When Vancouver gives Vanek $5-6M for 3 to 4 years.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Stamkos quite easily

Leafs or Sabres will vastly overpay him

 

[Bourdon]

All gonna depend on the dollars. Stamkos at <$10 will be a reasonable contract. >$10 will be a war crime if he doesn't regain full ultra-elite form.

Granted he's a fair bit better, but remember when Brad Richards was the prized possession that everybody wanted a piece of? 6.6M for 9 years, which at the time was SERIOUS money (and also apparently a bit less than what everybody was offering). That top UFA pick turned into a horror movie. Stamkos at 12M for 6 years could be an albatross in years 3-6 if his broken leg and blood clots and who knows what else diminish his ability to perform.

The thing is that Richards was 31 when he was signed to that contract. He was never a great skater and he declined heavily in that aspect as he got older. Stamkos, at the end of a 6 year contract would only be 32.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that whoever signs Stamkos needs to stick him with a good playmaking winger. He'll be alright if they can do that. Flippula and Killorn shouldn't have been a recipe for success with Stamkos. Remember when Ovechkin was "done" a few years ago?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Demers has never broke 30 points. Time will tell, i remember when people expected Mark Fayne to get 5 million, Dougie Hamilton was supposed to get 8 million Anton Stralman was supposed to sign for 6 million and Sekera was supposed to get 7 million. HF is historically bad at predicting contract values. Edmonton is very attractive to free agents at the moment, Lucic i think would be willing to take a paycut especially if the oilers offer a long term deal.

EDIT: he did get 34 points one year.

Right, but instead those guys got paid with term (aka more "money," less cap). Fayne got 4 years, Hamilton 6, Stralman 5, Sekera 6. And that's not counting NTC/NMCs.

There's other currency besides raw dollars that teams pay free agents and it's getting largely ignored to say those deals are steals when many long term contracts are looking rough on the back end. Hell, look how happy people are to have Fayne literally one year in at that salary/term.

Can we stop pretending GMs are geniuses when the shave a few bucks off in favor of other currency?