OT: The Thread About Nothing: Party like it's 199

[Devils Dominion]

Be ready to hear all sorts of panic tomorrow, becuase the GFS (which most US based media use) just went farther out to sea (like the Euro), BUT then does a button hook back into Jersey, much like Sandy.

Nevermind that this might just be the START of the model caving to the Euro's full-blown harmless out to sea solution (and thus be WRONG about the eventual button hook), I guarantee they'll be talking about the button curl back to Jersey just so they can get people INSANE and worked up that Sandy Part 2 is coming.

TRANSLATION: If you live near the shore and need gas or groceries, get them early to mid-day tomorrow (i.e. today), not because you'll probably need them, but because I sadly think that by 5pm tomorrow the media will loathsomely be having people needlessly panicking and in tears thinking Sandy 2.0 is going to destroy the Jersey Shore.

What if they are right though.

Better to be prepared, the storm is extremely unpredictable at this point and a Cat 3.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Be ready to hear all sorts of panic tomorrow, becuase the GFS (which most US based media use) just went farther out to sea (like the Euro), BUT then does a button hook back into Jersey, much like Sandy.

Nevermind that this might just be the START of the model caving to the Euro's full-blown harmless out to sea solution (and thus be WRONG about the eventual button hook), I guarantee they'll be talking about the button curl back to Jersey just so they can get people INSANE and worked up that Sandy Part 2 is coming.

TRANSLATION: If you live near the shore and need gas or groceries, get them early to mid-day tomorrow (i.e. today), not because you'll probably need them, but because I sadly think that by 5pm tomorrow the media will loathsomely be having people needlessly panicking and in tears thinking Sandy 2.0 is going to destroy the Jersey Shore.

Ugh I can't get to the store until it gets insane on Friday.

Hopefully it follows the Euro because otherwise it would be a disaster.

Still with all the rain we are already going to get. Even if it brushes by there will be a decent amount of local flooding. Obviously take that over the worst case but it won't be completely harmless.

 

[Emperoreddy]

What if they are right though.

Better to be prepared, the storm is extremely unpredictable at this point and a Cat 3.

There really is no right or wrong yet. Most good forecasters have made a point to be clear there is a ton of uncertainty with this storm's track.

The Euro might win and we can all breath but it's better to be a little safe then sorry at least at the moment. Tomorrow should hopefully shed some more light on what to expect.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Follow Gary Szatkowski on twitter. He's a meteorologist for the NWS. He's always on point with his interpretations of the weather models and stresses how nothing can be certain.

 

[Devils Dominion]

This storm is currently stronger than Sandy was at the same point in time.

It could end of being the strongest storm our generation has ever been through.

 

[BenedictGomez]

This storm is currently stronger than Sandy was at the same point in time.

It could end of being the strongest storm our generation has ever been through.

Which will stink for all the tuna that will be rained on out in the Atlantic.

Stop buying into the media hype. Despite what the media is telling you at the moment for ratings and hysteria, this storm now has a very high probability of going out to sea.

Not only is it not "going to rain all weekend" and not only is a "MAJOR HURRICANE" likely not going to "HIT NEW JERSEY", I think there's a better chance this weekend may be somewhat pleasant.

<---- Still loathes the media

 

[tr83]

Which will stink for all the tuna that will be rained on out in the Atlantic.

Stop buying into the media hype. Despite what the media is telling you at the moment for ratings and hysteria, this storm now has a very high probability of going out to sea.

Not only is it not "going to rain all weekend" and not only is a "MAJOR HURRICANE" likely not going to "HIT NEW JERSEY", I think there's a better chance this weekend may be somewhat pleasant.

<---- Still loathes the media

And this was what was said right before Sandy decided to make a left. Better to be overprepared than underprepared.

 

[Emperoreddy]

And this was what was said right before Sandy decided to make a left. Better to be overprepared than underprepared.

Thing is the model that predicted early that Sandy would make its crazy turn towards Jersey was the Euro, and that is the model saying this thing is going far out to sea.

That said it isn't infallible as it also predicted we were going to get that gigantic snow storm last year that went up to Boston instead.

Edit: That said most are still confident that even if it stays well off shore, we are still in for a significant rain event this weekend. It should be quite wet so don't drive into flooded roads (why people try this I will never know)

 

[Devils Dominion]

And this was what was said right before Sandy decided to make a left. Better to be overprepared than underprepared.

I don't remember that.

I remember the mood being somber at a bar the Friday before the storm, everyone was talking about preparing for it.

The media and most forecasters were wrong though in their blizzard predictions this past winter, we barely got a snowflake and they predicted 2 to 3 feet.

I don't trust this current storm, it keeps wiggling and if it wiggles left at some point it could be extremely devastating to New Jersey.

 

[BenedictGomez]

And this was what was said right before Sandy decided to make a left. Better to be overprepared than underprepared.

That's a different scenario though.

With Sandy, one model (the best one) perfectly showed it walloping NJ/NY, the rest of the models all showed it out to sea. So it wasnt a complete shock.

This time, there isn't even one model any longer showing a NJ hit. Even the GFS (the model that showed the scary NJ strike yesterday) is trending out to sea now. Yet the media is still panicking people.

Could this all change and NJ gets hit? Well, sure. The Yankees could lose the next 4 games and miss the playoffs too, but at the moment that isn't a likely scenario.

The below shows the 20 runs that comprise the GFS operational run. There is only 1 of the 20 runs that shows a NJ hit, which is a 5% chance (i.e. 95% chance it's not happening). The Euro model which is generally more accurate and has 51 runs, doesn't have a single one showing a NJ strike (0%). Yet panic us the media must.

 

[Burner Account]

I am going to AC on Saturday

 

[tr83]

The Euro has obliterated the forecasting capabilities of the other 26 models for the last 5 years or so. But I say that because all of these models are built on probability algorithms and are only as good as the data they're being fed.

I roll my eyes at Congress because they struck down funding that would help meteorologists build a computer to handle the data that can't currently be computed by current models.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The Euro has obliterated the forecasting capabilities of the other 26 models for the last 5 years or so. But I say that because all of these models are built on probability algorithms and are only as good as the data they're being fed.

I roll my eyes at Congress because they struck down funding that would help meteorologists build a computer to handle the data that can't currently be computed by current models.

Not sure where you're getting that from.

The GFS and a few other American weather models were just upgraded very recently at the cost of millions of dollars, all approved by Congress, and the models all still stink compared to the European suite.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2015/013015.html

 

[tr83]

Not sure where you're getting that from.

The GFS and a few other American weather models were just upgraded very recently at the cost of millions of dollars, all approved by Congress, and the models all still stink compared to the European suite.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2015/013015.html

Oh, I stand corrected. The last time I heard, meteorologists were screaming at congress for the money. With this Congress, I'm shocked that it was funded.

I'm having a bad day

 

[Emperoreddy]

Getting close to the point where we shall see how correct the models were as it should start turning soon.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Looking like this one might cut east out to sea according to some updated models. Good news.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Oh.... what do you know.... our National Weather Service at 11pm has FINALLY adjusted their predicted Hurricane Joaquim track to go harmlessly way far out to sea.

And we spend millions on these clowns.

 

[njdevils1982]

Oh.... what do you know.... our National Weather Service at 11pm has FINALLY adjusted their predicted Hurricane Joaquim track to go harmlessly way far out to sea.

And we spend millions on these clowns.

****….im not even american and i use this resource all the time!…….and ya, im pissed off.


wanted some rain on monday so i could get some **** done at home and not have to go to work


…and now a deviation on the forecast……


**** them all……its a roll of the dice it seems…….i too can play the prognostocate guy,.,,,,,


100% chance of my hopes up and crushed ….just like that

 

[Bleedred]

My uncle, who is 61 years old and pretty miserable, keeps telling me a big cat 4 or 5 will hit the Tampa/St Pete/Gulf coast. Every year we're supposed to get this big one according to him.

He also claims that he lives in Las Vegas because he's safe from hurricanes, unlike in Jersey and Florida. In reality, he's envious that I live here and he's stuck out there. He's always wanted to move here, even before I was born. I actually started vacationing here because I started going with him when I was younger. He had friends here, who he would visit. I've always told him he's welcome to move here with me, not that I would be too excited about it. He always declines though.

Just a couple months ago he told me New Jersey was getting another Sandy this year, luckily I haven't had the opportunity of speaking with him in the last couple days. He would have said ''See! I told you! This is what I told you would happen! It's happening now!''

 

[EliasFTW]

This TWD ad is pissing me off.

 

[Comparison Ford]

Hey dudes and gals. If you guys are interested and have a television, I am gonna be on The Voice this Monday. If you wanna see a Devils fan sing, nows your chance.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Hey dudes and gals. If you guys are interested and have a television, I am gonna be on The Voice this Monday. If you wanna see a Devils fan sing, nows your chance.

Now how in sam hill are we going to know who you are?

edit: Better yet, do you get picked??

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Hey dudes and gals. If you guys are interested and have a television, I am gonna be on The Voice this Monday. If you wanna see a Devils fan sing, nows your chance.

They finally told you what episode you'd be on or you were just holding out on us?

 

[Wingman77]

Hey dudes and gals. If you guys are interested and have a television, I am gonna be on The Voice this Monday. If you wanna see a Devils fan sing, nows your chance.

Son can you play me a memory, I'm not really sure how it goes....

Good stuff

 

[BenedictGomez]

Hey dudes and gals. If you guys are interested and have a television, I am gonna be on The Voice this Monday. If you wanna see a Devils fan sing, nows your chance.

Cool. Normally I'd rather pull my finger nails out with rusted tweezers than watch that, but I'll DVR it to catch you.