Speculation: The Quest to sign Lindholm: Part II

[aj8000]

Another conspiracy!!

You wearing a tin foil hat? Personally, I have never said there was a conspiracy? I have only said that they are withholding information which is not the definition of a conspiracy

 

[Sojourn]

The funny thing is, why didn't they put him on LTIR the same time as Depres? You would think they would do them both at the same time?

And yesterday, it was funny that they hadn't put Despres on LTIR, according to some.

Thompson is recovering from a torn Achilles. His return is not imminent. They'll put him on LTIR when they feel they need to, if they feel they need to. There is nothing funny about that. I know it's easy to throw out a lot of misinformation, but there comes a point where you're just displaying your own ignorance on the topic. We know Thompson's situation because he's an Anaheim player, and we'd actually prefer him to be playing. He's been a pretty good player for Anaheim when he's been healthy.

First it was a red herring from you, then it's a half-truth, and now Thompson not going on LTIR is evidence of, what? More misinformation?

 

[Whileee]

Well what do you know? Here I thought we had to give away Fowler for picks/prospects to have cap space for Lindholm.

Depres on LTIR doesn't give them nearly the cap space they'll need. Probably still have to either pay a team to take Stoner or move Fowler.

 

[Sojourn]

Depres on LTIR doesn't give them nearly the cap space they'll need. Probably still have to either pay a team to take Stoner or move Fowler.

No one expects Despres to give them the cap space by himself.

I really wish people would take the time to read some of the discussions. Anaheim fans have made it pretty clear that Thompson is also a LTIR option. That being able to put Stoner into the AHL, as well as other AHL candidates, would give them room.

A lot of it would be temporary room(all of the LTIR space), but it should give them more than enough room. At least for the moment.

 

[aj8000]

And yesterday, it was funny that they hadn't put Despres on LTIR, according to some.

Thompson is recovering from a torn Achilles. His return is not imminent. They'll put him on LTIR when they feel they need to, if they feel they need to. There is nothing funny about that. I know it's easy to throw out a lot of misinformation, but there comes a point where you're just displaying your own ignorance on the topic. We know Thompson's situation because he's an Anaheim player, and we'd actually prefer him to be playing. He's been a pretty good player for Anaheim when he's been healthy.

First it was a red herring from you, then it's a half-truth, and now Thompson not going on LTIR is evidence of, what? More misinformation?

Ok, Maybe you should go back a actually read my posts. Yes, I believe that the Ducks are not tell the insiders the whole story but that hardly merits that sentence.

I guess you would rather take shots at me then actually discuss things on a discussion forum since until Lindholm is signed there is very little you or I can do about it.

I await your next shot at me in respect to this post.

 

[Sojourn]

Ok, Maybe you should go back a actually read my posts. Yes, I believe that the Ducks are not tell the insiders the whole story but that hardly merits that sentence.

I guess you would rather take shots at me then actually discuss things on a discussion forum since until Lindholm is signed there is very little you or I can do about it.

I await your next shot at me in respect to this post.

I have read your posts, and apart from misusing the term "red herring" you imply, pretty strongly, that Anaheim has been full of crap and and hasn't been truthful. Of course, what you fail to mention is that the information is being reported by neutral sources, and some of them very respectable sources. Sources that would have no reason to post information that they have reason to believe is not truthful.

At no point have I seen you back up your opinion with anything that approaches fact. It sounds awfully cloak and dagger for a contract negotiation. When does James Bond enter the picture? Or Ethan Hunt? Mission Impossible: Secret Signings.

 

[aj8000]

I have read your posts, and apart from misusing the term "red herring" you imply, pretty strongly, that Anaheim has been full of crap and and hasn't been truthful. Of course, what you fail to mention is that the information is being reported by neutral sources, and some of them very respectable sources. Sources that would have no reason to post information that they have reason to believe is not truthful.

At no point have I seen you back up your opinion with anything that approaches fact. It sounds awfully cloak and dagger for a contract negotiation. When does James Bond enter the picture? Or Ethan Hunt? Mission Impossible: Secret Signings.

I see that I am required to have facts to back up my opinion in this thread when no one else is required to. Since I do not have any facts, I guess I am wrong then and you are right.

The only reason Lindholm is not signing is because they are between 250,000 and and 1,000,000 apart in price.

I guess i have overstayed my welcome here. later

 

[Sojourn]

I see that I am required to have facts to back up my opinion in this thread when no one else is required to. Since I do not have any facts, I guess I am wrong then and you are right.

The only reason Lindholm is not signing is because they are between 250,000 and and 1,000,000 apart in price.

I guess i have overstayed my welcome here. later

There's a difference between having an opinion, and having an opinion backed by evidence.

There is nothing wrong with speculation, but you should expect to be called out on it if there is no evidence to support it. Especially when it suggests a level of dishonesty from the Anaheim side. You're essentially saying Anaheim has been lying to people, and I don't think it's unreasonable to ask you to provide something that backs up that opinion. It's a little out there.

 

[Lurch]

Glad cap space is freeing up. Hope Anaheim can get him signed on a fair contract ASAP.

 

[mouser]

Thompson will probably also go on LTIR. That's 1.6. Stoner/Theodore will be sent down when Lindholm signs. That's ~900k. 1/2 forwards will go down when Rakell gets back. That's another ~600k/1.2mil. That will give us around 7 million to sign Lindholm.

The CBA LTIR explanations suggest it's not possible to use two different LTIR Exceptions (Despres + Thompson) to fit in one replacement contract (Lindholm).

Hypothetical example:
- Salary cap is at $70m, team has a roster cap AAV of $69m.
- Two players are injured at the start of the season: one with a $4m contract, one with a $2m contract.
- The team places the $4m player on LTIR, the team can now add $4m to their team AAV, and have a team AAV of up to $73m ($69m+$4m).
- If that team were to then place the $2m player on LTIR they could add $2m to their team AAV, and have a team AAV of up to $71m ($69m+$2m). Which is less then the available space the team already has, so there would be no benefit in LTIR'ing the second player. Fundamentally no different from the principle that there's no point in LTIR'ing a player unless the team's available cap space is less then the LTIR player's contract.

A team could LTIR the $4m player, then add a replacement $4m or less player(s), then LTIR the $2m player and replace them. So it's possible to use all $6m in LTIR space across multiple players. However, the CBA LTIR formula suggests it would not be possible to LTIR a $4m player and a $2m player then replace them with a $6m player.

Maybe the NHL/PA have agreed to handle multiple LTIR's differently. I'm just basing this on a careful reading of the CBA LTIR section and examples that seem to say the math doesn't allow it to happen.


p.s. If anyone is aware of past LTIR situations that contradict this, that would be very helpful for research.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

The CBA LTIR explanations suggest it's not possible to use two different LTIR Exceptions (Despres + Thompson) to fit in one replacement contract (Lindholm).

Hypothetical example:
- Salary cap is at $70m, team has a roster cap AAV of $69m.
- Two players are injured at the start of the season: one with a $4m contract, one with a $2m contract.
- The team places the $4m player on LTIR, the team can now add $4m to their team AAV, and have a team AAV of up to $73m ($69m+$4m).
- If that team were to then place the $2m player on LTIR they could add $2m to their team AAV, and have a team AAV of up to $71m ($69m+$2m). Which is less then the available space the team already has, so there would be no benefit in LTIR'ing the second player. Fundamentally no different from the principle that there's no point in LTIR'ing a player unless the team's available cap space is less then the LTIR player's contract.

A team could LTIR the $4m player, then add a replacement $4m or less player(s), then LTIR the $2m player and replace them. So it's possible to use all $6m in LTIR space across multiple players. However, the CBA LTIR formula suggests it would not be possible to LTIR a $4m player and a $2m player then replace them with a $6m player.

Maybe the NHL/PA have agreed to handle multiple LTIR's differently. I'm just basing this on a careful reading of the CBA LTIR section and examples that seem to say the math doesn't allow it to happen.


p.s. If anyone is aware of past LTIR situations that contract this, that would be very helpful for research.

What if the Ducks, playing with a 22 man roster, send down Stoner and LTIR Thompson on the same day. (Thompson already being on IR and not part of the roster) Also on that same day, they then sign Lindholm and recall a different AHLer. Could that work?

 

[mouser]

What if the Ducks, playing with a 22 man roster, send down Stoner and LTIR Thompson on the same day. (Thompson already being on IR and not part of the roster) Also on that same day, they then sign Lindholm and recall a different AHLer. Could that work?

They would need to get the team AAV above approximately $74.7m* before LTIR'ing Thompson gives any relief. But doing that means using up the relief space from Despres they would need to sign Lindholm. If there were some way to temporarily inflate team AAV, LTIR Thompson, and then lose that extra roster AAV there could be some possible tricks. Perhaps something like what Columbus did if there's a big ELC bonus contract on the farm they could call up for a day and send back down (assuming the NHL has permitted the Columbus squirrelly LTIR).

* The Ducks should be getting about $3.3-3.4m relief from Despres, meaning a team maximum cap of ~$76.3m. They would need to get the team AAV to greater then ~$76.3m - $1.6m (Thompson's contract) = $74.7m.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

They would need to get the team AAV above approximately $74.7m* before LTIR'ing Thompson gives any relief. But doing that means using up the relief space from Despres they would need to sign Lindholm. If there were some way to temporarily inflate team AAV, LTIR Thompson, and then lose that extra roster AAV there could be some possible tricks. Perhaps something like what Columbus did if there's a big ELC bonus contract on the farm they could call up for a day and send back down (assuming the NHL has permitted the Columbus squirrelly LTIR).

* The Ducks should be getting about $3.3-3.4m relief from Despres, meaning a team maximum cap of ~$76.3m. They would need to get the team AAV to greater then ~$76.3m - $1.6m (Thompson's contract) = $74.7m.

I hear what you are saying but I'm struggling while trying to interject some common sense. Since the league allows a team to go over the cap due to LTIR, I don't understand why they wouldn't allow two LTIRs to be replaced with one signing. It is still only temporary, and it is still due to situations (injuries) out of any team's control. You can have temporary replacement money if one guy gets hurt, but no additional money if a second one gets hurt a day later? Seems to me that once you have reached the original cap threshold and you have multiple LTIRs you should have the same flexibility since you originally met the cap limit threshold with the first LTIR. I honestly don't see that as a homer viewpoint. It's not like every team with multiple injuries has access to a high quality, high priced replacement just sitting around waiting to be signed. That just happens to be how this real life scenario is playing out.

 

[mjlee]

So what I don't understand is, if Lindholm as rumoured is seeking something around 5.5-5.6 (according to the Ducks board the sides are like 250 apart) OS will cost a first and a third. For a team in or close to win now mode, with picks presumably pretty low, why not pay that for the chance of a 22 year old potential #1 D? Isn't that pretty cheap? Even a first, second and third I would think is doable.

I know BM has said that the Ducks will match but since the main problem seems to be that they don't have the cap space to sign Lindholm that's an empty promise. In a second best scenario with the Ducks matching it will screw with their cap which a division/conference rival wouldn't mind. A young solid #2 borderline #1 with the potential to be one of the better#1 are not often on the market, much less for picks.

It's too bad Ken Holland is so firmly against OS since his long and fruitless search for a #1 D could be had for picks, which the Wings have never been afraid from dealing in the past.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

I bet the other general managers are probably rooting for Bob Murray so these contracts don't get out of hand from the players side of things

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

So what I don't understand is, if Lindholm as rumoured is seeking something around 5.5-5.6 (according to the Ducks board the sides are like 250 apart) OS will cost a first and a third. For a team in or close to win now mode, with picks presumably pretty low, why not pay that for the chance of a 22 year old potential #1 D? Isn't that pretty cheap? Even a first, second and third I would think is doable.

I know BM has said that the Ducks will match but since the main problem seems to be that they don't have the cap space to sign Lindholm that's an empty promise. In a second best scenario with the Ducks matching it will screw with their cap which a division/conference rival wouldn't mind. A young solid #2 borderline #1 with the potential to be one of the better#1 are not often on the market, much less for picks.

It's too bad Ken Holland is so firmly against OS since his long and fruitless search for a #1 D could be had for picks, which the Wings have never been afraid from dealing in the past.

I think teams with young stud dmen are hoping b Murray gets that contract as low as possible because if nothey, their dmen have contract to point out... most gms prob hate the Ekblad contract cause if gives young dmen sometjing to point out, if Lindholm got what he asked for that would definitely raise the bar on future contracts for rfa dmen.

Other part is, would lindholm sign an Os from teams like Calgary Vancouver phoenix Edmonton? Idk... sharks don't need him nor do the Kings. Player has to sign the offer sheet so he may not have interest in any of those teams/ cities

 

[mjlee]

Well, if this article is true http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hampus-lindholm-trade-rumours-anaheim-ducks-rfa-unsigned-simon-despres-ltir/ that BM wants Hampus to sign for less than Ristolainen, eg, under 5.4 and Lindholm wants to be paid a bit more, then BM is an idiot.

I know the Ekblad contract seriously screwed with salary structure for young D but if Seth Jones, who is younger and at this point much less proven and not as good got 5.4 then pay Lindholm 5.650 or something similar and eat two of the UFA years. Or take a chance and sign him for four years, lower cap hit, no UFA years and hope the cap goes up and there is enough salary off the books to pay him what he will demand then.

And if it turns out his salary demands are too high, then you have a year or so to trade him and get something in return besides picks. Don't know if he would fit under the cap, but just looking at the Leafs, their one decent LH D is Gardiner, then you're down to Maricin and Hunwick. Possibly Leaf management would baulk at the price of picks but they would be stupid to do so IMO for a proven commodity like Lindholm. I mean imagine the three Big Ones and on the back end Zaitsev and Lindholm, not bad

 

[Maukkis]

Well, if this article is true http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hampus-lindholm-trade-rumours-anaheim-ducks-rfa-unsigned-simon-despres-ltir/ that BM wants Hampus to sign for less than Ristolainen, eg, under 5.4 and Lindholm wants to be paid a bit more, then BM is an idiot.

I know the Ekblad contract seriously screwed with salary structure for young D but if Seth Jones, who is younger and at this point much less proven and not as good got 5.4 then pay Lindholm 5.650 or something similar and eat two of the UFA years. Or take a chance and sign him for four years, lower cap hit, no UFA years and hope the cap goes up and there is enough salary off the books to pay him what he will demand then.

The Ekblad deal was a thing of beauty, to be honest. When you think of it, by paying a million too much now, and possibly a bit too much for a long time (which isn't a guarantee by any means), Florida managed to get their franchise defenseman signed for eight years, while using his contract to mess up other teams' RFA deals. Now every good defenseman coming off an ELC has a solid high-end comparable for their own deals, which makes it harder for other contenders. And the best thing is... that it doesn't look like Florida is going to suffer from it.

 

[Exit Dose]

The Ekblad deal was a thing of beauty, to be honest. When you think of it, by paying a million too much now, and possibly a bit too much for a long time (which isn't a guarantee by any means), Florida managed to get their franchise defenseman signed for eight years, while using his contract to mess up other teams' RFA deals. Now every good defenseman coming off an ELC has a solid high-end comparable for their own deals, which makes it harder for other contenders. And the best thing is... that it doesn't look like Florida is going to suffer from it.

Problem is that it's clear that no one else is using it as a point of reference. He's the only player, in that situation, that looks like he's going to get that kind of deal.

 

[Jeti]

I bet the other general managers are probably rooting for Bob Murray so these contracts don't get out of hand from the players side of things

Lindholm's rumoured ask is completely reasonable. Murray did this to himself by mismanaging the cap badly. Other GMs are more likely to be laughing at him than feeling sorry for him.

It's weird how people are ******** all over Chevy for taking what is perceived as a moral stand, but Anaheim is missing their top defender who supposedly wants to re-sign for fair value due to Murray's incompetence and somehow Murray is a hero to you?

 

[Vipers31]

Problem is that it's clear that no one else is using it as a point of reference. He's the only player, in that situation, that looks like he's going to get that kind of deal.

That, and that these comparables really only matter on an open market. The RFA market is specifically designed to not be that, and only allow for a few and rare instruments to let the open market influence it.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Signed, per Bobfather