Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

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phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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White Sox not offering Rodon a QO is nuts in my eyes.

Former 3rd overall, 28 years old and coming off a 5 WAR season. Gladly give him the same offer we gave Thor.

The only thing that makes sense is his health is still questionable. Maybe he doesn’t pass a physical, hence why Chicago didn’t offer him a deal.
 
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phillipmike

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Where will Robbie Ray land in free agency? Breaking down best fits for 2021 AL Cy Young winner
The best fit: Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have developed a reputation for helping pitchers level up (Marco Estrada and JA Happ did it under their watch as well), and Ray is their greatest success story. It stands to reason Toronto would want to keep him around (why let another team benefit from your hard work?) and Ray would want to stick around (why leave a place you've had success?).

There are reasons Ray and the Blue Jays are a perfect fit behind that, of course. Toronto is a rising powerhouse with a dominant offense and three other above-average starters in Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, and the recently extended José Berríos. Ryu's contract is up in two years, though Berríos and Ray would be a fierce lefty-righty combination the next 5-6 years.

Even with Berríos getting a large contract and youngsters like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. due long-term extensions, the Blue Jays have the financial wherewithal to re-sign Ray and keep their sterling rotation together. It's a win-win. The Blue Jays keep a great pitcher as they transition to World Series contender, and Ray gets paid well while getting a chance to win.



Got a pattern here. Stays, goes, stays, goes. Bauer left the Reds so that means Ray has to stay.
 

Maestro84

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May 3, 2018
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Toronto
Also expect the Jays to be “interested” to every player on the market this off-season so don’t get your hopes too high on a lot of them haha
 

Man Bear Pig

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Aug 10, 2008
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If it was between Rodon or Matz on a one year deal, who would you prefer? Assume same price.
Rodon, without question. You're talking about a guy in the running for the Cy Young vs a guy who had a nice redemption season. I'd pretty easily offer Rodon the Syndergaard contract. Whether he'd accept is up for debate. There's red flags with both but Rodon clearly has higher upside to me.
 

aingefan

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Feb 27, 2008
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Pretty sensible 40-man additions I guess.
Danner seems far away, but the arm must be electric.
Happy for Zach Logue. Quite the uptick in k’s this year against better competition. Francis was pretty great after the trade until 2-3 bad starts near the end of the year.
Samad Taylor did have a very noticeable year; I’m assuming the strike zone judgment did him in, and glut of guys who are just a bit better.
 

phillipmike

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How the New York Mets botched their Kumar Rocker selection in the 2021 MLB Draft
The real mistake the Mets made was in how they approached the rest of their class.

The Mets had just over $9 million to spend over the course of the first 10 rounds. In agreeing to give Rocker an overslot bonus (the 10th pick carries a $4.74 million slot), they necessitated saving money elsewhere. Sure enough, the Mets created close to $1 million in pool space by signing six of their next nine picks to underslot arrangements. Those savings were earmarked for Rocker, and were supposed to allow the Mets to pay him his $6 million without incurring a penalty for exceeding their bonus pool amount. That's all fine and well, but the Mets forgot to take out an insurance policy later in the draft.

So not only did the Mets mess up the Rocker situation by not taking a back up plan later in the draft.

Getting another first for Rocker in 2022 hurts them this offseason because realistically they can’t sign a free agent who got a OQ.

If you sign a FA who got a QO, you lose your 2nd and 5th highest pick.

The Rocker compensation pick is 11 and they got the 14th overall pick for where they finished in the standings this year.

That means if they sign a player who got a QO, then the Mets would lose their 1st round pick (14th overall) and their 4th round pick. Every other team would lose at worst their 2nd and 5th.

They have money and need starters and a 2B, so they likely can’t go after Ray or Semien.
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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How the New York Mets botched their Kumar Rocker selection in the 2021 MLB Draft


So not only did the Mets mess up the Rocker situation by not taking a back up plan later in the draft.

Getting another first for Rocker in 2022 hurts them this offseason because realistically they can’t sign a free agent who got a OQ.

If you sign a FA who got a QO, you lose your 2nd and 5th highest pick.

The Rocker compensation pick is 11 and they got the 14th overall pick for where they finished in the standings this year.

That means if they sign a player who got a QO, then the Mets would lose their 1st round pick (14th overall) and their 4th round pick. Every other team would lose at worst their 2nd and 5th.

They have money and need starters and a 2B, so they likely can’t go after Ray or Semien.

Tell that to the Rockies who gave up the 11th overall pick in the 2017 draft to sign Ian Desmond. The Rockies got a grand total of -1.6 fWAR out of Desmond. Yes that's negative. They didn't get a single season above replacement level.

I'm baffled they still can't figure out the compensation system. They've changed it 3 times and it's still bad. The AA take advantage of A and B free agent system was bad ranking free agents statistically including archaic stats like wins and RBI which resulted in AA picking guys off waivers at the end of the season and getting a free pick. They made it better by forcing teams to offer something(a QO) to get the pick, but teams had to give up 1st round picks as high as 11th overall to sign players. Then they lowered the pick you had to give up(unless you have 2 very high picks like the Mets do) but the compensation was lessened as well and determined by dumb things like market size and revenue sharing or not. Then they realized teams were starting to value draft picks a lot more and thus free agents were losing leverage and getting less which the PA obviously didn't like. So rather than the very easy fix they changed it so some free agents aren't eligible anymore so only some players get screwed once.

Just give teams picks after the 1st round as compensation and don't take anyway any picks from the signing team. It's so damn easy.
 
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hockeywiz542

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May 26, 2008
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Blue Jays roster moves: Who they added to the 40-man and the notable players left exposed to the Rule 5 draft - The Athletic

Notable players left off the 40-man roster

Samad Taylor, 23, had a breakout season in Double A, hitting .294 with an .888 OPS while slugging a career-best 16 home runs. However, he struck out nearly 30 percent of the time. Since he was acquired in a trade with Cleveland in 2017, Taylor has hung around in the bottom half of the top 30 prospects, per MLB Pipeline. Defensively, he can play all over the infield and outfield. Speed is part of his game, too, with 30 stolen bases in 38 attempts last season.

However, his role on the Blue Jays’ roster would be redundant, with guys like Cavan Biggio, Breyvic Valera, Kevin Smith and Otto López all functioning as utility options already. By leaving him exposed, the Blue Jays run the risk of seeing him taken, especially if a rebuilding team needs a versatile defender. But without playing experience above Double A, and with a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, perhaps the Blue Jays can run that risk, assuming it would be a long shot for him to stick in the majors all season.

Miguel Hiraldo, 21, was among Baseball America’s top 10 Blue Jays prospects before the season, but after hitting .249/.338/.390 in 105 games in Low A, he dropped down that list. He’s still so young, though, so while teams might be tempted to look at him for his prospect pedigree, there’s little reason to believe he could last a full season in the majors on another team’s 26-man roster.

Graham Spraker, 26, transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2021 with Double-A New Hampshire and had a 2.74 ERA in 42 2/3 innings with 62 strikeouts and 23 walks. He’s enjoyed a nice run in the Arizona Fall League, having yet to allow a run in 11 1/3 innings of work with 17 strikeouts. The Blue Jays are on the lookout for swing-and-miss for their bullpen, so the fact Spraker was unprotected suggests they don’t believe he can offer that yet at the MLB level. He’ll be among many relievers up for grabs in the draft, so there is some protection in the fact he’ll be one of many, but he could catch another team’s eye, especially after his fall league performance.

Joey Murray, 25, and Eric Pardinho, 20, are two of Toronto’s starting pitching prospects, but both spent almost the entire season on the injured list. Depending on his health status, Murray might attract some attention in the draft since he’s been an under-the-radar prospect with a deceptive high-spinning fastball. But it sits in the low 90s, so there’s also some skepticism that it would play in the majors. Law previously noted the track record for pitchers like Murray isn’t great in MLB. Pardinho continued to work his way back from Tommy John this past season. He’s pitched just three innings since 2019 and has never been above Low A. He has top-prospect shine, but a team would be hard-pressed to keep him on an MLB roster.
 

kb

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Aug 28, 2009
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So odd that he’s unprotected. Someone is taking a flyer on him for sure. Considering we like random pen options he should have been
Perhaps he's the sacrifice to keep Samad Taylor and Leo Jimenez?
 

kb

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They didn’t protect taylor
That's what I meant.....and apologies, I didn't realize Jimenez was actually protected.

Spraker is probably MLB ready, but with a lower ceiling. That might be more attractive than a double-A middle infielder with a >30% K rate.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Perhaps he's the sacrifice to keep Samad Taylor and Leo Jimenez?

There is no limit on how many players they can take from the Jays. It’s not like the NHL expansion draft, teams in the Rule 5 draft could take any amount of players from Toronto.
 
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