Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

[The Nemesis]

last one was well over 1k so we're on to a new thread for the start of the team's off-season.

Click to read more...

 

[kb]

 

[conFABulator]

So, who are the key UFAs and potential departures?

Semien
Ray
Matz

Anyone else? I figure we need a bat and an arm. I would be happy with Semien and Ray, if they price themselves out...who's next?

Jose Ramirez from Cleveland (trade) seems like a fit. Switch hitting, power and decent average...plays 3B, SS and 2B...could be our Semien replacement.

Stroman? Not sure I love that option, but he would be a strong number 2 or 3 and he would sign here (he has a tattoo after all), but at what cost?

1B - Guerrero
2B - Biggio
SS - Bichette
3B - Ramirez???
C - Jansen
LF - Gueriel Jr
CF - Springer
RF - Hernandez

Bench - Kirk, Dickerson, Espinal, ????

Rotation:

Berrios
Ryu
Stroman???
Manoah
Pearson, Stripling, Hatch, ???

Bullpen

Romano
Mayza
Merryweather
Cimber
Richards

...we still have some top end prospects...could be used to acquire Ramirez and should have money to add to depth.

If the kids keep developing and Springer stays healthy, we can build on this season without an offseason of heavy lifting.

Should be fun

 

[Advanced stats]

Siemen and Syndergard please!

 

[The Nemesis]

From what I can tell looking at Cot's Baseball Contracts info:

Full FA:
Semien
Ray
Matz
Dickerson
Yates
Soria
Phelps
Dyson

Arbitration eligible:
Berrios
Hernandez
Guerrero
Stripling
Cimber
Richards
Biggio
Jansen
Mayza
Borucki
Thornton
Barnes

Need new contract, but not yet arb eligible:
Basically everyone else, but in full:

Bichette
Manoah
Hatch
Romano
Espinal
McGuire
Merryweather
Pearson
Valera
Kirk
Saucedo
Baker
Castro
Kay
Lopez
Moreno
Palacios
Smith
Snead

The way I see it is:

The non-arb, non-FA guys are pretty much not worth thinking about since they'll get new deals in due course and maybe they non-tender some of the low-end guys like McGuire, Valera (yeah right ), Baker.

Most of the arb cases should be easy to sort out. Berrios, Teoscar, and Vladdy are going to get hefty raises and especially the first two are probably going to have the team delve right into trying to extend them beyond this season while there's less pressure on Vladdy because of time frame but also still some pressure because of his significance and the team's need to do right by him and not string him along for cheap to the maximum of the arb period. I could see Thornton being non-tendered, Barnes too. Borucki could be a casualty if they need a 40-man spot and aren't sure if he's going to rebound to what has been expected of him (he was bad this year and last year when he looked good there were warning signs in him outperforming his peripherals.)

The FAs pretty much fall into 3 camps:

1) The "really want backs, but the market will dictate" group which is Ray and Semien. The nice thing here is that both appear to still have Qualifying Offer status on the table, so the Jays can QO them and even if they leave the team will get draft compensation.

2) the "nice to have back if the price is right" group which would probably be Dickerson and Matz. They aren't likely to get big paydays, but still money (Matz) or role (Dickerson) might be enough to lure them away from the Jays for greener pastures.

3) the "good to have back cheap as depth, but not a big deal if they leave" group of Yates and Phelps. both have potential as serviceable deep pen arms (Phelps) or lottery-ticket bounce-back candidates (Yates) but it would have to be on cheap contracts or camp invites because there's either too much risk or they're too replaceable to worry about allotting any real money to

4) the "who cares" group of Dyson and Soria. Soria is pretty much looking like he's cooked, so I don't see the Jays taking him back unless he wants to sign a minor league deal with a camp tryout invite. Dyson was a nice bench speed and OF D pickup, but the team can afford to look internally for 5th OF types so he'll just be moving on to see if he can secure a minor league deal or camp invite.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

i have a hard time commiting 25m a year to ray just because he doesnt have a year to year track record that you would hope for . look at his 2 years prior to this. and its such a jekyll hyde scenario

i do think syndergaard will come here just based off how we were able to turn the careers or ray and matz around.

semien would be nice. but hes going home and is gonna command a long term 25<> mill contract

when it comes to the looming aspect of of third base. i have a different view. (mostly cause i was right last fall in regards to manoah.) you never know when someone may take a step forward looking at you groshan/hidalgo/moreno/martinez. but i think with history on our side chapman over jram. . we have a habit of getting mvps from oakland for a reasonable cost

on the relief pitching market i think good viable options could be
bradley, lorenzon,graveman, mchugh,

lefties - alvarez , mcfarland

 

[conFABulator]

From what I can tell looking at Cot's Baseball Contracts info:

Full FA:
Semien
Ray
Matz
Dickerson
Yates
Soria
Phelps
Dyson

Arbitration eligible:
Berrios
Hernandez
Guerrero
Stripling
Cimber
Richards
Biggio
Jansen
Mayza
Borucki
Thornton
Barnes

Need new contract, but not yet arb eligible:
Basically everyone else, but in full:

Bichette
Manoah
Hatch
Romano
Espinal
McGuire
Merryweather
Pearson
Valera
Kirk
Saucedo
Baker
Castro
Kay
Lopez
Moreno
Palacios
Smith
Snead

The way I see it is:

The non-arb, non-FA guys are pretty much not worth thinking about since they'll get new deals in due course and maybe they non-tender some of the low-end guys like McGuire, Valera (yeah right ), Baker.

Most of the arb cases should be easy to sort out. Berrios, Teoscar, and Vladdy are going to get hefty raises and especially the first two are probably going to have the team delve right into trying to extend them beyond this season while there's less pressure on Vladdy because of time frame but also still some pressure because of his significance and the team's need to do right by him and not string him along for cheap to the maximum of the arb period. I could see Thornton being non-tendered, Barnes too. Borucki could be a casualty if they need a 40-man spot and aren't sure if he's going to rebound to what has been expected of him (he was bad this year and last year when he looked good there were warning signs in him outperforming his peripherals.)

The FAs pretty much fall into 3 camps:

1) The "really want backs, but the market will dictate" group which is Ray and Semien. The nice thing here is that both appear to still have Qualifying Offer status on the table, so the Jays can QO them and even if they leave the team will get draft compensation.

2) the "nice to have back if the price is right" group which would probably be Dickerson and Matz. They aren't likely to get big paydays, but still money (Matz) or role (Dickerson) might be enough to lure them away from the Jays for greener pastures.

3) the "good to have back cheap as depth, but not a big deal if they leave" group of Yates and Phelps. both have potential as serviceable deep pen arms (Phelps) or lottery-ticket bounce-back candidates (Yates) but it would have to be on cheap contracts or camp invites because there's either too much risk or they're too replaceable to worry about allotting any real money to

4) the "who cares" group of Dyson and Soria. Soria is pretty much looking like he's cooked, so I don't see the Jays taking him back unless he wants to sign a minor league deal with a camp tryout invite. Dyson was a nice bench speed and OF D pickup, but the team can afford to look internally for 5th OF types so he'll just be moving on to see if he can secure a minor league deal or camp invite.

Thanks for this. That's all of the contract status info I didn't have the energy to look up for my post. I feel for the most part it lines up with my thinking.

The unknown variable here is how much money do we have to spend? Are around $140m from last year or going to build to $200m that the market should be able to support. Knowing this helps us answer some of the "priority" questions.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Muston Atthews]

Him and Semien would make this lineup insane

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Ramirez and Semien back would be insane. If you can dump Grichuk somewhere and go:

Springer
Semien
Guerrero
Ramirez
Bichette
Hernandez
Gurriel
DH (Kirk/Biggio/Espinal)
Jansen

Bench: Kirk/Biggio/Espinal/someone else.

 

[Bjindaho]

Ramirez and Semien back would be insane. If you can dump Grichuk somewhere and go:

Springer
Semien
Guerrero
Ramirez
Bichette
Hernandez
Gurriel
DH (Kirk/Biggio/Espinal)
Jansen

Bench: Kirk/Biggio/Espinal/someone else.

I don't get the obsession with dumping Grichuk. Dude can play all 3 outfield positions really well, and showed some signs that he might be starting to get it at the plate. His Mar/Apr were excellent, he made a change that went horribly wrong, and started to fix things in August, before having a decent approach to Sep/Oct (granted with limited power, which limited his impact).

He's a quality 4th OF.

 

[phillipmike]

I don't get the obsession with dumping Grichuk. Dude can play all 3 outfield positions really well, and showed some signs that he might be starting to get it at the plate. His Mar/Apr were excellent, he made a change that went horribly wrong, and started to fix things in August, before having a decent approach to Sep/Oct (granted with limited power, which limited his impact).

He's a quality 4th OF.

It’s more so making payroll room. $10M helps re-signing Semien and Ray or going after someone else. Can’t pay a 4th OF $10M.

 

[phillipmike]

Ramirez and Semien back would be insane. If you can dump Grichuk somewhere and go:

Springer
Semien
Guerrero
Ramirez
Bichette
Hernandez
Gurriel
DH (Kirk/Biggio/Espinal)
Jansen

Bench: Kirk/Biggio/Espinal/someone else.

It is a great lineup. Though I assume Cleveland would want one or both of Gurriel or Biggio and possibly another prospect or 2 for Ramirez.

Gurriel had to be in the discussion if the Jays were looking at Grossman as we already had Springer, Teo, Grichuk and Dickerson plus Gurriel.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't get the obsession with dumping Grichuk. Dude can play all 3 outfield positions really well, and showed some signs that he might be starting to get it at the plate. His Mar/Apr were excellent, he made a change that went horribly wrong, and started to fix things in August, before having a decent approach to Sep/Oct (granted with limited power, which limited his impact).

He's a quality 4th OF.

The "signs that he might be starting to get it at the plate" have been there for three full years now. He's just a really streaky guy who's going to have peaks and valleys and ultimately be a below average hitter and an ok defender.

Over the last three years he has a 91 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR in over 1400 PA. If he made league minimum, it would be bad and the team would likely want an upgrade. At $10 million per year, it's awful.

 

[Beaumaris]

I don't get the obsession with dumping Grichuk. Dude can play all 3 outfield positions really well, and showed some signs that he might be starting to get it at the plate. His Mar/Apr were excellent, he made a change that went horribly wrong, and started to fix things in August, before having a decent approach to Sep/Oct (granted with limited power, which limited his impact).

He's a quality 4th OF.

Correct.

 

[Bjindaho]

The "signs that he might be starting to get it at the plate" have been there for three full years now. He's just a really streaky guy who's going to have peaks and valleys and ultimately be a below average hitter and an ok defender.

Over the last three years he has a 91 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR in over 1400 PA. If he made league minimum, it would be bad and the team would likely want an upgrade. At $10 million per year, it's awful.

In his time as a Jay, he's a 7+ BB rate and 20 or less K rate two months total. Both happened last year. There was definitely a working change in approach. He just shifted away from it.

 

[Kurtz]

In his time as a Jay, he's a 7+ BB rate and 20 or less K rate two months total. Both happened last year. There was definitely a working change in approach. He just shifted away from it.

I feel like every year when he goes on one of his hot streaks, the credit goes to a new approach or consistent playing time, but it never holds. It's not good cap allocation to be paying $10m to your 4th OF. Now maybe there's a team out there desperate for a CF - for that team, Grichuk as a fulltime starter for $10m might make more sense.

 

[weems]

From that article posted

"It’s not just that they’re left-handed, but how we are attacked and potentially the pitchers that are used is different,” Atkins said. “Secondarily, we feel it’s important to have balance and not just the same type of hitters up and down your lineup. So some players that are more batting average driven and some players that are more on-base driven with plate discipline. Having both is exceptionally powerful.”

I think it's pretty safe to assume we'll be adding a quality LH bat this offseason.

 

[Discoverer]

In his time as a Jay, he's a 7+ BB rate and 20 or less K rate two months total. Both happened last year. There was definitely a working change in approach. He just shifted away from it.

He only did it once last year, in April, though he also did it in the second half as a whole despite not doing it in any one month. I would be more impressed if that first stretch wasn't followed by three months of "shifting away from it" and if the second half wasn't accompanied by a plummeting ISO.

 

[Bjindaho]

He only did it once last year, in April, though he also did it in the second half as a whole despite not doing it in any one month. I would be more impressed if that first stretch wasn't followed by three months of "shifting away from it" and if the second half wasn't accompanied by a plummeting ISO.

If a team views Randal as a positive in a trade, then I'm okay with moving him. But I honestly think that the Jays would have to pay to trade him (and that he could actually have value for the team).

 

[Bjindaho]

It is a great lineup. Though I assume Cleveland would want one or both of Gurriel or Biggio and possibly another prospect or 2 for Ramirez.

Gurriel had to be in the discussion if the Jays were looking at Grossman as we already had Springer, Teo, Grichuk and Dickerson plus Gurriel.

I'm not moving Gurriel in a Ramirez deal. I would gladly pay bigger prospects to avoid it.

One thing we don't want to mess with is the chemistry. And Gurriel is one of our glue guys.

I think Ramirez is going to require one of Martinez/Groshans, Biggio, and an arm like Pearson or Hatch.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm not moving Gurriel in a Ramirez deal. I would gladly pay bigger prospects to avoid it.

One thing we don't want to mess with is the chemistry. And Gurriel is one of our glue guys.

I think Ramirez is going to require one of Martinez/Groshans, Biggio, and an arm like Pearson or Hatch.

I'm with you on that. I felt the exact same way when people were throwing ideas around last offseason. Not that I wouldn't do it if it was absolutely required, but I can't picture a scenario where Cleveland demands Gurriel and you can't entice them with another piece that's less important to the current team.

 

[Puckstuff]

We could also use prospect capital on the bullpen. Adding some big end relievers via trade like Scott Barlow and/or Emanuel Clase in addition to some buy-low guys would go a long way. In fact as much as I want Ramirez the bullpen and rotation is even a bigger need.