The Most Lopsided Series So Far

[Brock Radunske]

Goalie is the most important player on a team, so scoring chances is only half the picture.

Whoops. Replied to the wrong post. But yes, I agree 100%

 

[zeke]

Ultimately,for a lot of these, you have to watch the games. I saw the first two games in Winnipeg and thought that was without a doubt, the most lopsided playoff series of all 8, but the numbers say the Wild have brought it closer to even after their 2 home games (I didn't watch much of game 3 or 4 but what I saw looked pretty even.)

The thing about the playoffs is that the sample size is too small and a lot of the time, teams will win the Corsi/SCF% battle when they are trailing in a game. For example, the Sharks (who have been on the good side of what I believe to be a very lopsided series so far) have an awful CF%, but their CF% close and FF% Close is beast because they have had a 2 goal lead for like half of the series.

wait a sec - don't these numbers I posted clearly agree with your eye test that the Jets series is extremely lopsided, and the most lopsided of all the series so far?

the numbers in the OP clearly list it as the the most lopsided series both 5v5 and overall.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Damn if we're the most lopsided series in the playoffs and I already get this anxious what is going to happen if we play closer series'

 

[LeafFever]

No one has any idea that Bruins/Leafs series is this close. This thread might die soon. You can't troll it.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

wait a sec - don't these numbers I posted clearly agree with your eye test that the Jets series is extremely lopsided, and the most lopsided of all the series so far?

the numbers in the OP clearly list it as the the most lopsided series both 5v5 and overall.

Yes, absolutely although I didn't see enough of games 3 and 4 of that series to say for certain.

 

[NyQuil]

No one has any idea that Bruins/Leafs series is this close.

Yeah, by one metric across three games.

 

[TOGuy14]

A lot of people have evaluated the TOR-BOS series based on final score but really:

Game 1 was close and hard fought for the first half before a very late second period goal / Kadri penalty had us short handed for most of the third while trying to mount a come back.

Game 2 got out of hand quickly with a few quick and uncharacteristic goals against Andersen.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Leafs will get absolutely destroyed, Bruins in 5. Thats the gist of what he said

Just another reason to hate that turd

 

[LeafFever]

Just another reason to hate that turd

It could be worse, he could own the Leafs. Poor Ottawa...

 

[LeafGrief]

Unadjusted Scoring Chances

5v5

TOR 51.9% - BOS 48.1%

Even Strength

TOR 50.6% - BOS 49.4%

All Strengths

TOR 50.3% - BOS 49.7%

Thanks. I'm a little surprised to see that, especially with how many powerplays the Bruins had in the first two games. I guess they've just been converting on their chances and getting some more of the good bounces. No disrespect to them, elite teams score when they get the chance to. But it certainly gives credence to the notion that the Leafs were much better than the scores for the first two games reflected.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Oh wow, these fancy stats have me feeling so much better about the Flyers being outscored 13-6 in 3 games.

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

I'm just happy we won two games against that Juggernaut. Thank god for luck! oh and the 20 posts and missed open nets in game three or we could have been lucky again and win by 5 that night.

What is with all the heal mary passes down the ice? It's even an icing call or a Leafs breakaway. Cant they make a play or skate it out with all that power? Anyways it was nice to win a few games.

 

[LeafFever]

I'm just happy we won two games against that Juggernaut. Thank god for luck! oh and the 20 posts and missed open nets in game three or we could have been lucky again and win by 5 that night.

What is with all the heal mary passes down the ice? It's even an icing call or a Leafs breakaway. Cant they make a play or skate it out with all that power? Anyways it was nice to win a few games.

Yeah Leafs have not hit any posts.

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

Yeah Leafs have not hit any posts.

They did have one. Bruins had 5. Anyway, I'm hoping we can hang in there and pull off a miracle

 

[MapleLeafistan]

I don't get the Melnyk references. He said what now?

 

[Edmonton East]

.....by Scoring Chances

Most to Least Lopsided Series:

5v5 play (adjusted for score and venue)

1. WPG 63.9% - MIN 36.1%
2. TBL 59.7% - NJD 40.3%
3. LVK 58.5% - LAK 41.5%
4. COL 58.1% - NSH 41.9%
5. WSH 55.2% - CBJ 44.8%
6. SJS 54.7% - ANA 45.3%
7. PIT 54.3% - PHI 45.7%
8. TOR 50.5% - BOS 49.5%

Most surprising there is probably seeing Colorado hammering Nashville so badly at even strength, but still behind in the series.

Some might be surprised to see that the only true "even" series at 5v5 so far has been the Bruins-Leafs series.

Let's add in special teams to see if some of the surprises dissappear:

All Strengths

1.WPG 60.4% - MIN 39.6%
2.LVK 57.6% - LAK 42.4%
3.WSH 56.0% - CBJ 44.0%
4.PIT 55.5% - PHI 44.5%
5.SJS 54.5% - ANA 45.5%
6.TBL 53.9% - NJD 46.2%
7.COL 51.6% - NSH 48.4%
8.TOR 50.3% - BOS 49.8%

So adding in special teams pretty much evens out that COL-NSH series, so that makes sense.

It also lessens TB's advantage in that series considerably.

But even with special teams included, the BOS-TOR series still looks even so far.

Question. How is the Devs series "more even" when you factor in special teams when Tampa's power play is hitting at 55% to the Devils 16%?

 

[zeke]

Question. How is the Devs series "more even" when you factor in special teams when Tampa's power play is hitting at 55% to the Devils 16%?

Not sure - have the devils had much more actual PP time than the bolts? That might explain in it.

 

[zeke]

Oh wow, these fancy stats have me feeling so much better about the Flyers being outscored 13-6 in 3 games.

Why? Getting less than 45% of the scoring chances should make you feel worse, not better.

 

[Edmonton East]

Not sure - have the devils had much more actual PP time than the bolts? That might explain in it.

Not diving into it since I'm out of the office haha...but either way, my point shows your metric and conclusion are incorrect.

Even if what you suggested was the driver, it just shows how worthless those metrics are. It's not like we are talking a 20% to 16% edge that could be impacted by other variables. I could drive a zamboni through that 16% to 55% spread.

Can't argue special teams are driving Tampa down 6% vs ES when they are converting over 50% of the time...

 

[Rich Nixon]

Why? Getting less than 45% of the scoring chances should make you feel worse, not better.

when you're getting less than 30% of the goals, though. it's a humor joke. a sarcasm, if you will.

 

[zeke]

Not diving into it since I'm out of the office haha...but either way, my point shows your metric and conclusion are incorrect.

I suggest you dive into it.

 

[Joe Sakic]

For me it has been Ducks - Sharks.

None of the games have been close.

I thought their series was going to be one of the bes pre-playoffs, but I have been incredibly disappointed.

 

[Edmonton East]

I suggest you dive into it.

Lesson 101 on what not to do in this situation. YOU POSTED THE STATS AND MADE A CLEARLY INCORRECT CLAIM.

Drrrrrr

You probably shouldn't post stats threads, let alone try to draw conclusions from them, if you don't even understand how they are being calculated.

 

[JGuardz]

Not diving into it since I'm out of the office haha...but either way, my point shows your metric and conclusion are incorrect.

Even if what you suggested was the driver, it just shows how worthless those metrics are. It's not like we are talking a 20% to 16% edge that could be impacted by other variables. I could drive a zamboni through that 16% to 55% spread.

Can't argue special teams are driving Tampa down 6% vs ES when they are converting over 50% of the time...

Scoring chances aren't based on results though... The devils could be getting more scoring chances on the PP but not converting or the lightning could be converting on low percentage plays that don't constitute a scoring chance

 

[zeke]

when you're getting less than 30% of the goals, though. it's a humor joke. a sarcasm, if you will.

when you're getting less than 30% of the goals, though. it's a humor joke. a sarcasm, if you will.

Eh, some teams get badly outscored but actually outchance the other team, and should feel better about the team going forward. But if you're also getting significantly outchanced, that should only reinforce the getting outscored part, even if it's a bit of a smaller margin.