The Most Lopsided Series So Far

[zeke]

.....by Scoring Chances

Most to Least Lopsided Series:

5v5 play (adjusted for score and venue)

1. WPG 63.9% - MIN 36.1%
2. TBL 59.7% - NJD 40.3%
3. LVK 58.5% - LAK 41.5%
4. COL 58.1% - NSH 41.9%
5. WSH 55.2% - CBJ 44.8%
6. SJS 54.7% - ANA 45.3%
7. PIT 54.3% - PHI 45.7%
8. TOR 50.5% - BOS 49.5%

Most surprising there is probably seeing Colorado hammering Nashville so badly at even strength, but still behind in the series.

Some might be surprised to see that the only true "even" series at 5v5 so far has been the Bruins-Leafs series.

Let's add in special teams to see if some of the surprises dissappear:

All Strengths

1.WPG 60.4% - MIN 39.6%
2.LVK 57.6% - LAK 42.4%
3.WSH 56.0% - CBJ 44.0%
4.PIT 55.5% - PHI 44.5%
5.SJS 54.5% - ANA 45.5%
6.TBL 53.9% - NJD 46.2%
7.COL 51.6% - NSH 48.4%
8.TOR 50.3% - BOS 49.8%

So adding in special teams pretty much evens out that COL-NSH series, so that makes sense.

It also lessens TB's advantage in that series considerably.

But even with special teams included, the BOS-TOR series still looks even so far.

Click to read more...

 

[The Podium]

Anyone watching the Bruins - Leafs series, even the biggest of homers, can admit that the games were a lot closer than the score. I mean down 4-0 in the 1st period of game 2 despite most recognizing they were the better team. It's one of those luck of the bounce, hot goaltender will win it type of series.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Yeah. Leafs had some really crappy luck with goaltending and so on in the first few games. Now the series has evened out, and I expect the Buds to wrangle it up 2-2 tomorrow night. If they can pull off the win in six, would be fantastic for the game of hockey.
Or at least me. It would be fantastic for me because I don't like heavy hockey and the further the Leafs go, the bigger it sticks in Melnyk's craw, so our (Sens) rebuild gets expedited.

 

[A1LeafNation]

One thing I don’t like about these stats is that if a team is trailing majority of the time, they likely have more scoring chances.

I’d like to see these stats only when the score is tied.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yeah. Leafs had some really crappy luck with goaltending and so on in the first few games. Now the series has evened out, and I expect the Buds to wrangle it up 2-2 tomorrow night. If they can pull off the win in six, would be fantastic for the game of hockey.
Or at least me. It would be fantastic for me because I don't like heavy hockey and the further the Leafs go, the bigger it sticks in Melnyk's craw, so our (Sens) rebuild gets expedited.

Bruins are smaller than the Leafs.

 

[LeafFever]

Leafs goaltending has been terrible so far. I was glad they had some puck luck in game 3. It felt like nothing went their way the 1st 2 games.
I bet that stat shocks most on here.

 

[LeafFever]

Anyone watching the Bruins - Leafs series, even the biggest of homers, can admit that the games were a lot closer than the score. I mean down 4-0 in the 1st period of game 2 despite most recognizing they were the better team. It's one of those luck of the bounce, hot goaltender will win it type of series.

That 1st period was unbelievable they were down 4-0. I have never seen anything like it.

 

[zeke]

One thing I don’t like about these stats is that if a team is trailing majority of the time, they likely have more scoring chances.

I’d like to see these stats only when the score is tied.

Those 5v5 are score-adjusted, like I said.

But it you want the Scoring Chance % when....

....Tied:

1.TBL 63.9% - NJD 36.1%
2.LVK 60.2% - LAK 39.8%
3.WPG 58.6% - MIN 41.4%
4.SJS 57.4% - ANA 42.6%
5.TOR 56.7% - BOS 43.3%
6.NSH 53.1% - COL 46.9%
7.WSH 52.7% - CBJ 47.3%
8.PHI 52.5% - PIT 47.8%

...within 1 goal:

1.PHI 66.7% - PIT 33.3%
2.WPG 60.8% - MIN 39.2%
3.TBL 59.8% - NJD 40.2%
4.SJS 59.2% - ANA 40.8%
5.LVK 58.1% - LAK 41.9%
6.WSH 57.2% - CBJ 42.8%
7.COl 52.0% - NSH 48.0%
8.TOR 50.8% - BOS 49.2%

 

[robertmac43]

Yeah. Leafs had some really crappy luck with goaltending and so on in the first few games. Now the series has evened out, and I expect the Buds to wrangle it up 2-2 tomorrow night. If they can pull off the win in six, would be fantastic for the game of hockey.
Or at least me. It would be fantastic for me because I don't like heavy hockey and the further the Leafs go, the bigger it sticks in Melnyk's craw, so our (Sens) rebuild gets expedited.

I love that the Leafs doing better than Melnyk's prediction is driving fans to cheer for the rival down the road for the playoffs. I also hope we prove your crazy owner wrong.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Those 5v5 are score-adjusted, like I said.

But it you want the Scoring Chance % when....

....Tied:

1.TBL 63.9% - NJD 36.1%
2.LVK 60.2% - LAK 39.8%
3.WPG 58.6% - MIN 41.4%
4.SJS 57.4% - ANA 42.6%
5.TOR 56.7% - BOS 43.3%
6.NSH 53.1% - COL 46.9%
7.WSH 52.7% - CBJ 47.3%
8.PHI 52.5% - PIT 47.8%

...within 1 goal:

1.PHI 66.7% - PIT 33.3%
2.WPG 60.8% - MIN 39.2%
3.TBL 59.8% - NJD 40.2%
4.SJS 59.2% - ANA 40.8%
5.LVK 58.1% - LAK 41.9%
6.WSH 57.2% - CBJ 42.8%
7.COl 52.0% - NSH 48.0%
8.TOR 50.8% - BOS 49.2%

Thanks. Those tied stats tell me more I think.

 

[Gnova]

Thanks. Those tied stats tell me more I think.

How?

Some series are hardly ever tied so the sample size is very small.

 

[justafan22]

Jesus, Colorado is doing that well at evens...

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

How?

Some series are hardly ever tied so the sample size is very small.

every sample size is small. It's been 3-4 games. The point is to just track what happened so far

 

[The Macho King]

.....by Scoring Chances

Most to Least Lopsided Series:

5v5 play (adjusted for score and venue)

1. WPG 63.9% - MIN 36.1%
2. TBL 59.7% - NJD 40.3%
3. LVK 58.5% - LAK 41.5%
4. COL 58.1% - NSH 41.9%
5. WSH 55.2% - CBJ 44.8%
6. SJS 54.7% - ANA 45.3%
7. PIT 54.3% - PHI 45.7%
8. TOR 50.5% - BOS 49.5%

Most surprising there is probably seeing Colorado hammering Nashville so badly at even strength, but still behind in the series.

Some might be surprised to see that the only true "even" series at 5v5 so far has been the Bruins-Leafs series.

Let's add in special teams to see if some of the surprises dissappear:

All Strengths

1.WPG 60.4% - MIN 39.6%
2.LVK 57.6% - LAK 42.4%
3.WSH 56.0% - CBJ 44.0%
4.PIT 55.5% - PHI 44.5%
5.SJS 54.5% - ANA 45.5%
6.TBL 53.9% - NJD 46.2%
7.COL 51.6% - NSH 48.4%
8.TOR 50.3% - BOS 49.8%

So adding in special teams pretty much evens out that COL-NSH series, so that makes sense.

It also lessens TB's advantage in that series considerably.

But even with special teams included, the BOS-TOR series still looks even so far.

A lot of that is probably Tampa scores on the first shot of every PP, so we're not getting a ton of scoring chances.

 

[Gnova]

every sample size is small. It's been 3-4 games. The point is to just track what happened so far

Yeah but 45 minutes a game over 3 or 4 games is much better than 30 minutes total.

 

[zeke]

For the record, the usual "score-adjustments" place far heavier weight on chances when the score is tied than on chances when the score is a blow out.

Usually it's best to look at the bigger, total sample with score adjustments rather than just looking at the "close" samples.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

I love that the Leafs doing better than Melnyk's prediction is driving fans to cheer for the rival down the road for the playoffs. I also hope we prove your crazy owner wrong.

What was Melynk’s prediction?

 

[robertmac43]

What was Melynk’s prediction?

Leafs will get absolutely destroyed, Bruins in 5. Thats the gist of what he said

 

[LeafGrief]

What are the unadjusted 5v5 stats for the Leafs/Bruins series? I'm with you guys that the Leafs played far better than the scores suggested (I said to my friends halfway through the second period of the first game, "this is a good looking road game") but I also think the Bruins should have a bit more than 50% overall. Or was it really just the PP's (dat top Boston unit) in game 1+2 that did the Leafs in?

 

[SotasicA]

Goalie is the most important player on a team, so scoring chances is only half the picture.

 

[tom leafers]

Ridiculous how close the Boston/Toronto series is. No surprise really with Winnipeg and Tampa.

But dam Colorado. is that just a classic case of them being the underdog and playing over their heads as they finally managed to squeak into the playoffs?

 

[Cheddabombs]

the one that ended with a sweep

 

[powerstuck]

I'm expecting Senators fans to DONATE their tickets to Leafs fans next season when Toronto visits Ottawa. By doing so, Toronto would play a 100% home game against Ottawa in Ottawa.

If it doesn't happen, it's just poor sportsmanship from Sens fans.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Colorado has been flat out impressive so far, but I would look into other metrics outside of scoring chances before drawing a conclusion from this.

Ultimately,for a lot of these, you have to watch the games. I saw the first two games in Winnipeg and thought that was without a doubt, the most lopsided playoff series of all 8, but the numbers say the Wild have brought it closer to even after their 2 home games (I didn't watch much of game 3 or 4 but what I saw looked pretty even.)

The thing about the playoffs is that the sample size is too small and a lot of the time, teams will win the Corsi/SCF% battle when they are trailing in a game. For example, the Sharks (who have been on the good side of what I believe to be a very lopsided series so far) have an awful CF%, but their CF% close and FF% Close is beast because they have had a 2 goal lead for like half of the series.

 

[zeke]

What are the unadjusted 5v5 stats for the Leafs/Bruins series? I'm with you guys that the Leafs played far better than the scores suggested (I said to my friends halfway through the second period of the first game, "this is a good looking road game") but I also think the Bruins should have a bit more than 50% overall. Or was it really just the PP's (dat top Boston unit) in game 1+2 that did the Leafs in?

Unadjusted Scoring Chances

5v5

TOR 51.9% - BOS 48.1%

Even Strength

TOR 50.6% - BOS 49.4%

All Strengths

TOR 50.3% - BOS 49.7%