Speculation: The Matthew Tkachuk Megathread (Is he an $11 million player?)

[horner]

I am sorry for you guys from what has been happening to your franchise the past few months. Is it fair to say that Calgary (and most canadian hockey teams) should prioritize drafting canadian or european players moving forward to avoid on future situations like Tkachuk, Gaudreau and Adam Fox?

You can't pass up a great players .
I think in the future Canadian teams need to make decisions earlier, get a better feel for these American players .

Yes I feel for Calgary .

Jonny hockey sucked the last couple of yrs before his breakout contract yr.
He won't do anything for Columbus.

 

[jimmysheva]

Teams that have players making 10m or more never win the Stanley Cup

 

[Anglesmith]

But he’s limited his destinations and we’re on a timer before the arbitration date.

It’s not that simple to say “well 100 pts, kings ransom time.” I happen to agree that the return for this caliber of player will be underwhelming due to circumstances

The arbitration date isn't a true timer. He can be traded while signed on a one year deal, and the new team can extend him.

 

[TheHudlinator]

But he’s limited his destinations and we’re on a timer before the arbitration date.

It’s not that simple to say “well 100 pts, kings ransom time.” I happen to agree that the return for this caliber of player will be underwhelming due to circumstances

I don't think it matters to much. Even if there are only a few teams he will go to 100 point 24 year Olds being traded are extremely rare especially Tkachuk's style

 

[BobColesNasalCavity]

I’m so cynical right now that I’d attach Coronato do a Tkachuk deal because I don’t believe he’ll sign.

 

[Fig]

I don't think it matters to much. Even if there are only a few teams he will go to 100 point 24 year Olds being traded are extremely rare especially Tkachuk's style

Yup. And those that think Calgary have no leverage are sorely mistaken. We aren't getting full value, but I don't think we are going to sell for hilariously low either.

We have no leverage if there's only 1-2 teams that might be able to make a deal that works for us and works for them. By all accounts, there are at least 3-4 teams+ that can obtain Tkachuk for a price that works for both sides AND get him to sign a longer term contract that they desire.

MT's skill and style combination makes him a unicorn. It's exceptionally rare. Treliving probably not even trying too hard to sell. He's probably putting in effort in selling Tkachuk like someone trying to sell a time share:



I'm sure he's just inundated with offers and he's basically responding to those that are closest.

 

[BNHL]

Is it true Pasta wants out of Boston? I'd do the deal straight up. I think Pasta is at the very top of the league. Highly doubt this happens though.

It's not true

Tkachuk wants out. Every GM knows it. And apparently he will only go to like 6 teams. That handcuffs Treliving badly. The return wont be anywhere near as good as this. Sorry to say it Flames fans.

If he really wants out,his list will increase way beyond those.

 

[Devilsfan118]

The arbitration date isn't a true timer. He can be traded while signed on a one year deal, and the new team can extend him.

Is this true? Or would the new team need to wait until the new year to be allowed to officially ink an extension?

 

[Anglesmith]

Is this true? Or would the new team need to wait until the new year to be allowed to officially ink an extension?

I'm not sure, but either way that opens up the new year as a second trade window.

 

[DomBarr]

Is this true? Or would the new team need to wait until the new year to be allowed to officially ink an extension?

No its not. If he is playing on an arbitration award contract he can't sign an extension until January 2023. While it seems minor it does place risk on Tkachuk (injury) and the acquiring team (Tkachuk decides he doesn't want to extend)

 

[Kahvi]

Is this true? Or would the new team need to wait until the new year to be allowed to officially ink an extension?

For one year contracts you have to always wait until January before extension is possible. Otherwise you could essentially sign players to 9 year contracts and so some cap circumventing (like 1 year / $12M contract followed by a 4 year / $4M contract to bring cap hit down, if you have cap space for the first year)

 

[DomBarr]

It's not true


If he really wants out,his list will increase way beyond those.

The Flames can trade him to any of the 31 teams regardless of what Tkachuk may want. If Arizona figures they can change his mind and offers a better package than everyone else...Tkachuk is going to Arizona.

 

[Devilsfan118]

Thanks all for the replies - and I'm sorry for jumping into a thread on another team's board. Not here to troll.

But with that in mind, you'd almost have to hope he signs an extension now if/when dealt in order to maximize his value.

If he's on a 1-year arb deal that walks him to UFA and the acquiring team can't even talk extension until 2023.. woof. That's gonna tank the return for him, I would imagine.

 

[super6646]

The arbitration date isn't a true timer. He can be traded while signed on a one year deal, and the new team can extend him.

Not till January 1st, and a team might not be willing to give up as much if they are uncertain about re-signing him.

I don't think it matters to much. Even if there are only a few teams he will go to 100 point 24 year Olds being traded are extremely rare especially Tkachuk's style

Jack Eichel’s are extremely rare too and the package he got was relatively meh even though tuch worked out. If we get something similar I’ll be happy.

 

[Anglesmith]

Not till January 1st, and a team might not be willing to give up as much if they are uncertain about re-signing him.

You let him negotiate prior to the trade. Mark Stone style.

A mid-season trade has a value boost as well because the receiving team does not need to accommodate his salary for the full season. This allows them to add him at half cost and fill out the roster even more.

I don't think there is a leverage issue here.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Thanks all for the replies - and I'm sorry for jumping into a thread on another team's board. Not here to troll.

But with that in mind, you'd almost have to hope he signs an extension now if/when dealt in order to maximize his value.

If he's on a 1-year arb deal that walks him to UFA and the acquiring team can't even talk extension until 2023.. woof. That's gonna tank the return for him, I would imagine.

This was always a risk to be honest, whether it was via arbitration or Tkachuk simply accepting his qualifying offer of $9 million. The only thing that's changed is Tkachuk's stated (public) desire to not sign long term with the Flames. Still may be appeal to other teams without an extension, particularly as a trade deadline type deal.

What club elected arbitration does is it eliminates the possibility of an offer sheet (meaning if the Flames match, cannot trade him for a year) and allows the Flames to retain some small bit of control over the situation.

 

[lightstorm]

A 24 year old 100 point player that can sign a 8 max length deal with his new team and not be a burden for any of it is worth a metric shit ton

One season riding Gaudreau's coat tails doesnt make him a 100 point player. Is JT Miller a 99 point player? Would you cough up signed Mangi, Coronato and a 1st for him?

Once asked to drive his own line with Backlund/Frolik caliber players Tkachuk will be lucky to crack 70 points.

He wants to get paid more than he's worth, has a narrow list of teams where he'll sign long term and people are expecting kings ransom.

Man there will be a lot of angst on this site if people are expecting Kyrou + 1st or Mercer + Bratt.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

If it’s Kyrou, 23 first and a prospect I want Perunovich, not Neighbours.

My guess it’s that or Tarasenko + Perunovich + Neighbours + 23 first

Bratt + Nemec for Tkachuk +

NYR Lafreniere + one of their young RD for Tkachuk+

Maybe something around McTavish and a couple D prospects from Anaheim

LA for Kempe + Durzi + first

Ottawa for Tim Stutzle + cap dump

Maybe another team like Minnesota gets involved. We have lots of cap space to make things fit

 

[InfinityIggy]

If it’s Kyrou, 23 first and a prospect I want Perunovich, not Neighbours.

My guess it’s that or Tarasenko + Perunovich + Neighbours + 23 first

Bratt + Nemec for Tkachuk +

NYR Lafreniere + one of their young RD for Tkachuk+

Maybe something around McTavish and a couple D prospects from Anaheim

LA for Kempe + Durzi + first

Ottawa for Tim Stutzle + cap dump

Maybe another team like Minnesota gets involved. We have lots of cap space to make things fit

I'd be pretty surprised if we get a return this good. Premier young guys like Nemec, Laf, Kempe, Stu are rarely moved. I could see the Blues deal happening without Perunovich, though.

 

[PecnoTrunk]

People on this board mocked me for saying that the good American players just don’t want to play in Canada and that Canadian clubs should be drafting more Canadian and more European players. It’s obvious for the last few years. Look at your 2 players and look at pettry from Montreal that’s just 3 players in the last month

Watch Mathews leave for the grand old USA

 

[Kranix]

People on this board mocked me for saying that the good American players just don’t want to play in Canada and that Canadian clubs should be drafting more Canadian and more European players. It’s obvious for the last few years. Look at your 2 players and look at pettry from Montreal that’s just 3 players in the last month

Watch Mathews leave for the grand old USA

We should have listened to you!! This could have been avoided

 

[TheHudlinator]

People on this board mocked me for saying that the good American players just don’t want to play in Canada and that Canadian clubs should be drafting more Canadian and more European players. It’s obvious for the last few years. Look at your 2 players and look at pettry from Montreal that’s just 3 players in the last month

Watch Mathews leave for the grand old USA

I disagree, Gaudreau was willing to re-sign last offseason but Tre decided he wasn't worth his asking price. This is incompetent management walking Gaudreau to free agency and incompetent management only getting Tkachuk on a 3 year deal.

 

[jkutswings]

Teams that have players making 10m or more never win the Stanley Cup

That's a very arbitrary line in the sand, considering that Colorado and Tampa have a combined 5 players making $9M or more.

 

[Oduyanow]

People on this board mocked me for saying that the good American players just don’t want to play in Canada and that Canadian clubs should be drafting more Canadian and more European players. It’s obvious for the last few years. Look at your 2 players and look at pettry from Montreal that’s just 3 players in the last month

Watch Mathews leave for the grand old USA

I don’t know about that, Brady Tkachuk signed in Ottawa last year for 7 years and Josh Norris just signed for 8. Both US guys.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Not till January 1st, and a team might not be willing to give up as much if they are uncertain about re-signing him.


Jack Eichel’s are extremely rare too and the package he got was relatively meh even though tuch worked out. If we get something similar I’ll be happy.

Jack Eichel is a weird comparable though. The injury thing looming over I think scared a lot of teams off.

If anything I would say the Stone scenario is similar. Duchene too.