Analytical data can be deceiving as some defencemen will give up many harmless shots from the perimeter while never giving up a scoring chance because they’re solid positionally and another defensman will have better shot suppression numbers because they’re chasing perimeter players and taking shots away from the perimeter but will give up quality scoring chances against (leaving slot exposed). Same thing with Corsi for forwards, a guy like jake flying down the wing and letting perimeter shots rip will have better analytical numbers than someone who looks to make a smart play with a higher chance of that play resulting in a goal. You have to take analytical data with a grain of salt. Let’s agree to disagree on Hutton for now and let’s get this game day thread back on track.
Yes, this is why you must use several different types of analysis.
- 1. His shot suppression is statistically very good.
He gives up high quality chances and less perimeter shots!
- 2. If anyone can find that heat map, you'll see that his side of the high percentage areas are also blue while Gudbranson's are red. This suggests he's not giving up a ton of high quality chances as you claim.
Shot suppression isn't everything anyway. Sure he heavily reduces shots on goal but he doesn't contribute anything else!
- 3. GF/GA ratio isn't worse than the other D on the team, when he is on the ice the puck ends up in the other team's zone more often than not. He led the team for a month or two last year in zone exits, and then dropped down to #2 behind Tanev. He's not putting points up but he's facilitating the most important aspect scoring which is actually setting up in the offensive zone.
But Intangibos, points matter and he just doesn't put up the same point totals as other D!
- 4. Hutton 6 points in 62 games, Stetcher 11 points in 68 games(I think he had PP time), Gudbranson put up 5 in 52 games. Pouliot put up 22 in 71 games while being by far the worst defenceman on either team every single game, and getting PP time with the Sedins who put up good PP numbers last year. Del Zotto put up 22 as well with significant PP time. It's not like these guys are putting up 35-40 points while Hutton contributes nothing, the offense from our D is marginal and the guys putting up those marginal points are not good defensively.
But a team without D that can contribute offensively can't score goals, we need to have these 20 point players or else we'll never score!
- 5. The objective of hockey is to score more goals than your opponent. Del Zotto hasn't performed well and Pouliot would need to put up 40 points to make up for how awful he is defensively, and honestly that's only if he gets extremely sheltered matchups. Pouliot does not score at a high enough rate to make up for his defensive ineptitude. +/- is an awful stat but Pouliot was a -22 in sheltered minutes while only putting up 16 more points than Hutton with significant PP time in more games played. Corsi stats do aim to show the ratio of positive to negative gameplay.
So you'll say +/- is a meme and Corsi isn't everything, Virtanen has good stats because he rushes the puck and takes a low percentage shot!
- 6. Hutton is not rushing the puck and getting low percentage shots on goal like Virtanen. His numbers are entirely based on shutting down shots and scoring chances, and moving the puck up the ice with possession. His stats are good enough to suggest that he gets possession of the puck often enough along with his defensive play to make up for his offensive play more than our other D's offensive play make up for their defensive play.
It's his D partner getting the puck to him and defending the slot to make up for his major weaknesses! He's not the only player on the ice, his shots against are low but he needs his D partner to retrieve the puck for him to move it up!
- 7. His partner is Gudbranson, he isn't doing anything useful
Hutton needs to skate better to rush the puck and not get walked by anyone who can skate well, and it would help if he could be more physical. He's made a few good hits but not very many and he's more than capable, but his skating again is probably a factor in this and hopefully his conditioning will help both of these things to some extent. He also needs to be more aggressive offensively, but with the ridiculously short leash he's on I bet making aggressive plays in the offensive zone or rushing the puck is pretty scary as an unsuccessful play will lead to him sitting another 5 games. IMO he has been neutered by the coaching staff who won't tolerate anything less than perfect play from him.
Another important thing to note is that with Hutton out your only left D that can play the PK is Edler. You have Del Zotto and Pouliot as your other LD, neither of which are any better at shutting down the slot, something you claim Hutton can't do, nor do they suppress shots at an equal rate, nor do they clear the zone at an equal rate. If Del Zotto takes a penalty we're stuck with Pouliot playing the PK, if Edler takes a penalty god help us. Then again Hutton didn't even get PK time last year so we could put the elite defensive D Del Zotto out there instead. Ironically the PK is one of the only times Hutton will very rarely need to defend against someone rushing the puck, it seems like a situation he would thrive in.
If I wasn't taking the statistics with a grain of salt Hutton would be a similar player to Tanev. I'm using a variety of statistics to create a number of assumptions and then using the eye test to adjust my analysis of the player. I'm not just saying "Well his Corsi numbers are excellent, this guy is easily a #2". He has major flaws in his game as I've said that the advanced stats don't show, but those major flaws in no way outweigh the other aspects of his game.
Again, I never suggested the stats were perfect or a viable method to completely assess a player. However, they are neutral and don't come with the inherent biases all humans have that is applied to the eye test. The burden of proof as to why the statistics don't apply to Hutton or don't tell the whole story is on you. I've yet to see
anyone give
any answer to this question. Just "stats aren't everything!" and that's the end of the conversation.