Line Combos: The bottom six problem

[KirkOut]

Why do we keep putting Sobokta to the 3rd line? He's looked more comfortable then Steen. He honestly looks like a top 6 guy now. I know it doesn't really matter as he doesn't read the boards but it feels like were just not giving him enough credit. Im on board with getting a pure rental or 2yr contract RW. Problem is all the targets id have are in teams that are looking to make the playoffs.

Schwartz Schenn Tarasenko
Sobotka Stastny ?????
Steen Berglund Sundqvist(meh)
Upshall Brodziak Jaskin

Maybe throw Paajarvi on the 3rd, slide Sunny to the 4th and move Brodziak to the wing(i think his tank is too emptied for c duties). We have options but they are all kinda meh. That 2RW needs to be a homerun pick up though

Because I’ve been watching for years and know that Steen is a better player than Sobotka despite this 20 game sample size?

 

[Dbrownss]

Because I’ve been watching for years and know that Steen is a better player than Sobotka despite this 20 game sample size?

Ever since Sobokta returned he's looked better then Steen.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I don't follow other teams in the NHL, so I can't tell you much about other teams' third lines. But I have followed the Blues a long time, and I remember a third line in the '80-81 season which had two twenty goal scorers and one thirty goal scorer.

Our current third line may not be the biggest problem on the team, but this thread is about the bottom six. I see it as a problem if the third line can't get and keep puck possesson in the offensive zone, and can't generate scoring opportunites.

Kind of a different era, since that team had 8 people putting up what would be considered "1st line" number nowadays. Hard to know how many goals they gave up along the way, but I'd bet a whole lot that it's way more than our current 3rd line is giving up since that team gave up more goals than the highest scoring team in the league scored last year.

You say that the 3rd line can't keep possession in the offensive zone, and can't generate scoring opportunities, but they're doing both better than they're giving up. Even if they aren't cashing in on those opportunities (a valid concern), they are still keeping things even on the score sheet, and what they are doing (playing their opponents even in spite of very unfavorable zone start splits) is helping the team win because it's allowing the Blues to play all of their best players in the most favorable offensive situations.

I don't think there's anything wrong with wanting three lines that can score. I prefer that myself. This is also far from the best third line the Blues have ever had. It's not even close. All I'm saying is that I'm picking up a general vibe that the third line is a pressing problem that is costing the Blues games, and I don't think they are. "The Bottom Six Problem" thread seems like the place to voice that opinion, no?

 

[KirkOut]

I can get on board temporarily with what you're saying, Easton. The third line has been treading water, not getting much but not giving up much either. But I get concerned about what happens when the Schenn/Schwartz well dries up and those guys go on an inopportune slump. Right now we are getting such scant secondary scoring from the bottom 6 that it is not a palatable thought.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I can get on board temporarily with what you're saying, Easton. The third line has been treading water, not getting much but not giving up much either. But I get concerned about what happens when the Schenn/Schwartz well dries up and those guys go on an inopportune slump. Right now we are getting such scant secondary scoring from the bottom 6 that it is not a palatable thought.

The Blues will probably start losing more games than they are now, but that's honestly to be expected regardless of whether the 3rd line improves or not. The Blues ending the season with 120 points is simply not a very realistic expectation, so at some point people are going to have to come to grips with this team losing more games than they have been.

It is inevitable that the current PPG+ players will cool off a bit, and that some of our defenders are not going to continue their torrid goal scoring paces. Improved special teams play can offset that somewhat, as can improving the 3rd line to a lesser extent, but they aren't panaceas. Every team is going to struggle if their best players are struggling regardless of how good their supporting cast is. That's just a fact. Even the best/deepest teams still lose roughly 30 times a year, at a minimum...a pace that the Blues are bettering by about 17%.

That's not an argument for a completely passive approach or inactivity, but potential changes should be explored with an understanding of what impact they are actually likely to have, and valued accordingly. Improving the third line is not going to keep this team from taking a step back when the outliers regress. That's simply inevitable. The real question is whether improving the third line is necessary to prevent them from being the best team in their division at the end of the year, and one of the better teams in the league. It's probably too early to know since this team is still running hot, and we haven't seen how the third line will perform once Berglund settles back in. It's certainly possible the Blues will feel compelled to address the issue in time, but I don't feel like the conversation is nearly as urgent as others here do.

 

[Renard]

Last night, in Vancouver, the third line collectively had no goals, no assists, no shots on goal and one attempt blocked. But all three ended the game even on plus/minus scale.

So, at least for one night, they didn't hurt or help us.

Well, lets hope Berglund can get back in the lineup and have one of those unpredictable hot streaks of his.

 

[Grimlore]

Why do we keep putting Sobokta to the 3rd line? He's looked more comfortable then Steen. He honestly looks like a top 6 guy now. I know it doesn't really matter as he doesn't read the boards but it feels like were just not giving him enough credit. Im on board with getting a pure rental or 2yr contract RW. Problem is all the targets id have are in teams that are looking to make the playoffs.

Honestly, I think Sobi has looked good playing on his off-side. I'd just keep our top two lines as is with Stastny's line drawing the harder minutes but still contributing.

Put PRV with Berglund when he gets back and have Sunquist on this line. Jaskin rotates with Thorburn. No trades, and PRV & Berglund looked good together last year. Give it 10-15 games and see what happens.

 

[Brockon]

I've got to agree, the top 6 has looked pretty good and I'd hate to break up productive lines for no reason. Sobie has meshed well on the 2nd line, leave him there.

Bergie comes back, replaces Sundqvist as 3C and we figure out who of Sundqvist, Jaskin and Paajarvi best compliment him in January before we start buying before the deadline.

And for God's sake, don't bring in anything that isn't a rental - next year we should have

Fabbri - Bergie - Thompson/Kostin/Kyrou
take a shot at producing a productive 3rd line.

 

[TruBlu]

I've got to agree, the top 6 has looked pretty good and I'd hate to break up productive lines for no reason. Sobie has meshed well on the 2nd line, leave him there.

Bergie comes back, replaces Sundqvist as 3C and we figure out who of Sundqvist, Jaskin and Paajarvi best compliment him in January before we start buying before the deadline.

And for God's sake, don't bring in anything that isn't a rental - next year we should have

Fabbri - Bergie - Thompson/Kostin/Kyrou
take a shot at producing a productive 3rd line.

You mean unless it's John freaking Tavares, right?

 

[STL fan in MN]

Hopefully with Bergy returning soon and Blais likely joining the lineup the 3rd line can chip in some more scoring.

They will need some more balanced/secondary scoring as the 1st line and offense from the D is bound to dry up at some point but for now I’m not too worried.

 

[Brockon]

You mean unless it's John freaking Tavares, right?

Tavares is a UFA this summer - correct me if I'm wrong here, isn't that the definition of a rental? I specifically said don't bring in anything other than a rental, JT fits the bill...

I seriously doubt we land Tavares. The roadblock is what does GM Garth Snow demand in return for his franchise player - when the Islanders look to be in a playoff berth around the deadline? Tarasenko? Schwartz +? Best case scenario - Stastny, our 2019 1st and Parayko or Stastny, 2019 1st, Dunn and Thomas? Get your head out of the clouds. Garth Snow will not move Tavares if the Islanders are in contention for a playoff berth. It's going to cost more than we are willing to send away to pry Tavares lose.

Let's assume the wheels come off for the Isles, they're selling AND JT waives his NTC for us. I can't see the cost for the JT rental starting below a first and a prospect. And that's before the bidding process starts around the league... How much are you willing to mortgage for JT? Are you going to play Stastny on the 3rd if he doesn't waive his NTC - Stastny has no reason to waive his NTC, he plays for a contender. Who gets the boot to free up the needed roster spot for us? NYI expansion draft strategy implies they believe their defence is set, so Bortz/Gunny aren't heading out to open that slot up in a straight up trade. J Bou has a NTC. Do the Isles need any of our bottom 6 forwards? (hint - I think not...) Are we selling defensive depth off in case beforehand on the chance we can acquire JT?

The whole trade aspect just doesn't make sense from the NYI side. And you can bet your a** Garth Snow doesn't give JT away, that will cost him his job and likely any chance of working in the NHL ever again if he botches a JT trade - even if it is just a rental.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Blais-Bergy-Jaskin should be a good enough 3rd line.

And then if they add a small piece (a 3rd line caliber RW. I don’t see Tavares as a realistic acquisition), then that should help even more.

And Sanford should return around March/April too so if he can get up to speed, that’s even more good depth.

I don’t think this team needs a big splash. Sure, if somehow JT can be had and extended at a fair price, go for it but I think all they need is a 3rd line RW and Army has 2 months until the trade deadline to get it done.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

JT for less than one year will not cost Tarasenko or Schwartz+Parayko. You are crazy.

Tavares gets traded if and only if he refuses to re-sign with the Isles. At that point Snow has to trade him or fear losing him for nothing.

The Blues equally don’t do this unless they are confident they can re-sign him.

He will likely go for a large package of futures and a roster player. The bidding war will only take place between 1) teams that are in the playoffs, 2) teams that can re-sign him, 3) teams that are not in his NTC, and 4) teams that are not in the East, or at the very least the Metro.

JT controls his destiny, and Snow is not going to let him stay in the East if he can help it. After all those prerequisites, I think STL has the best chance of landing him if we are interested. No other team has the cap, the supporting cast, the need, the window, the pieces to trade, and the location to match all of those requirements. Even if you allowed for him to be traded in the East, no other team provides a better place to win than STL for the money, and presumably that’s why he would leave NYI - otherwise he would just stay if he’s okay with making similar to less money but in a worse team that couldn’t get it done when he was a bargain and only managed to bring in Eberle, an aging Ladd, and lost Hamonic in recent years.

I’ll be mildly surprised if he stays, but I would be absolutely shocked if he leaves and goes anywhere else. And yes, I am that confident that unless there is a Shattenkirk-sequence “I want to go here because I have non-hockey, non-money reasons” that STL is far and away the best fit.


But to get back in topic, grabbing a 2RW is essential, IMO, to a successful cup run this year, sans Tavares. Otherwise, what we are really doing (and what I have predicted would happen) is going for it next year after the rookies get mother year, Fabbri returns, and one or more of Thomas, Kyrou, Thompson, Kostin, Walman, Mikkola, and Husso enter the NHL. I always thought we would be good - even President’s trophy good this year, but next year is the beginning of our legitimate pushes for a cup.

 

[ManyIdeas]

I like the idea of Blais Berglund Jaskin, to be honest. Keep the current top 6 as it is and then let the offensive skill of Blais and the shot of Berglund have a good time

4th line some combo of Upshall Brodz Thorburn/Sundquist/Paajarvi

Edit: This team would be so much better if Fabbri was healthy. That's a legitimate scoring option on every top 9 line :/

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I don't see a bottom six problem and I'm usually Mr. Negative.

We have a mix and match bottom six. Depending on the opposition Yeo can either go heavy or fast.

 

[Brian39]

I like the idea of Blais Berglund Jaskin, to be honest. Keep the current top 6 as it is and then let the offensive skill of Blais and the shot of Berglund have a good time

4th line some combo of Upshall Brodz Thorburn/Sundquist/Paajarvi

Edit: This team would be so much better if Fabbri was healthy. That's a legitimate scoring option on every top 9 line :/

I'm not sold on Blais/Bergy/Jaskin as a good enough 3rd line in the playoffs. I look at the 3rd lines of the Pens/Kings/Hawks teams who won Cups in the last 5 years and I see a trend where you absolutely need a darn good 3rd line. In the playoffs, the Pens got 12 even strength points out of Kessel on the 3rd line last year and 14 even strengths goals out of their 3rd line 2 years ago. In 2015 the Hawks had Sharp/Vermette/Teurovainen combine for 27 even strength points in the playoffs. In 2014, the Kings had that insane Pearson/Carter/Toffoli 3rd line while their 2nd line had Justin Williams score 21 points at even strength.

I don't see Blais/Berg/Jaskin on the same level as those 3rd lines. As good as our top 6 has been so far, I'm not ready to say it's better than the top 6 of any recent Cup winner. Those teams had elite offensive players and a 3rd line that contributed in the playoffs. Berglund can't carry a line like Kessel or Carter can. He needs another player on his line who is a well above average 3rd liner and I don't think Blais/Jaskin fit that bill.

In order to contend, I think we need another truly middle 6 type forward. I don't think it needs to be a big splash like Evander Kane or Tavares (although both would be great for the appropriate price).

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I'm not sold on Blais/Bergy/Jaskin as a good enough 3rd line in the playoffs. I look at the 3rd lines of the Pens/Kings/Hawks teams who won Cups in the last 5 years and I see a trend where you absolutely need a darn good 3rd line. In the playoffs, the Pens got 12 even strength points out of Kessel on the 3rd line last year and 14 even strengths goals out of their 3rd line 2 years ago. In 2015 the Hawks had Sharp/Vermette/Teurovainen combine for 27 even strength points in the playoffs. In 2014, the Kings had that insane Pearson/Carter/Toffoli 3rd line while their 2nd line had Justin Williams score 21 points at even strength.

I don't see Blais/Berg/Jaskin on the same level as those 3rd lines. As good as our top 6 has been so far, I'm not ready to say it's better than the top 6 of any recent Cup winner. Those teams had elite offensive players and a 3rd line that contributed in the playoffs. Berglund can't carry a line like Kessel or Carter can. He needs another player on his line who is a well above average 3rd liner and I don't think Blais/Jaskin fit that bill.

In order to contend, I think we need another truly middle 6 type forward. I don't think it needs to be a big splash like Evander Kane or Tavares (although both would be great for the appropriate price).

Nashville's third line last year was nothing to write home about either and they made it all the way to the Cup finals. Let's give it time for them to play together and see what happens. Berglund is a VERY good option at 3C. Jaskin seems to be improving under Yeo's system, and I am a big detractor of his. Blais has a little confidence now with his 1st NHL goal and may relax a bit and play his game. We'll see, but I think it could be a good 3rd line. It has some potential at least.

Am I the only one that wants to see Paajarvi or Thorburn waived, but more so Paajarvi?

 

[Brian39]

Nashville's third line last year was nothing to write home about either and they made it all the way to the Cup finals. Let's give it time for them to play together and see what happens. Berglund is a VERY good option at 3C. Jaskin seems to be improving under Yeo's system, and I am a big detractor of his. Blais has a little confidence now with his 1st NHL goal and may relax a bit and play his game. We'll see, but I think it could be a good 3rd line. It has some potential at least.

Am I the only one that wants to see Paajarvi or Thorburn waived, but more so Paajarvi?

And they still got 9 even strength goals out of Watson and Neal who were primarily used in a 3rd line capacity. I'm not confident that Berglund/Blais/Jaskin is a good enough 3rd line to match that level of production. I wouldn't pencil in Bergy/Jaskin/Blais for 10 even strength goals over a 22-26 game stretch in the playoffs. Even if I were, Nashville got to the Final on the back of Rinne posting a .951 SV% at home and they fell short of the Cup. Trying to match that recipe requires your goalie to post a .930+ for 2 straight months in order to win a Cup. I'd rather improve the 3rd line and have a shot at the Cup if Allen posts a .920ish in the playoffs.

Anything can happen with a hot goalie. But banking on that brings your odds way down and no team has overcome an average 3rd line to win a Cup for as long as I can remember. Bergy will help a ton. I think he is completely capable of driving a very good 3rd line. I just think that he needs one of Blais/Jaskin to be upgraded to a legit middle 6 NHLer in order to get into the discussion as a top 10 NHL 3rd line.

Edit: I'd be fine with Paajarvi getting waived. I think Jaskin and Sundqvist have both passed him on the depth chart and Blais appears to be doing so as well. I'm with you on Thorburn, but the team obviously wants him on the 23 man roster, he brings a physical element that Jaskin/Paajarvi/Sunqvist don't and he has admittedly played very well lately.

 

[Oberyn]

Thorburn has the same amount of points as Paajarvi and Sundqvist in 7 less games. That's just sad. At least Sundqvist has shown that he's valuable on the PK but Paajarvi has just been a whole lot of useless.

Thorburn has been growing on me lately, he's looked pretty decent with Upshall and Brodziak so far.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Paajarvi's speed is really useful, and he battles hard to beat-out icings, win board battles, and win puck races. He's useful in those situations, and he plays a decent defensive game in the neutral zone - although the Blues seem to be doing less of that sort of thing scheme-wise.

 

[Majorityof1]

Thorburn has the same amount of points as Paajarvi and Sundqvist in 7 less games. That's just sad. At least Sundqvist has shown that he's valuable on the PK but Paajarvi has just been a whole lot of useless.

Thorburn has been growing on me lately, he's looked pretty decent with Upshall and Brodziak so far.

Has thorburn looked good, or are Uppy and Brodz just sadly better linemates than Paajarvi and Sundqvist? Remember, Upshall and Brodziak both were former 20 goal scorers. They have skill, they just can be more consistently effective in a 4th line role, so they adapted their game. Its allowed them to stay relevant as they age. However, both have multiple seasons as good or better than Paajarvi's best. And Paajarvi's best is looking like a fluke now. I believe Jaskin has more points playing with the 4th line than the 3rd (have not checked, just going by very faulty memory). The third is just a bunch of support players with nobody who can drive offense. Our 4th actually does a better job at that. I think Thorburn's points are more a product of that, than any usefulness he brings. Thorburn isn't as bad as he was early on or as I feared, but it is more of a non-negative than a positive impact (*note, I was unable to watch the last two games aside from highlights, so if Thorburn was Crosby-esque there, I missed it)..

 

[The Note]

Thorburn has actually looked pretty good the past two games. Crosby-esque is a stretch but he’s been good enough to get a couple points. Much, much better than his first couple games where it looked like he’d have a hard time on an ECHL team.

I agree that the Blues should add a true middle 6 (preferably rental) option on RW this year if they can. Optimally it would be someone to play on the second line with Steen-Stastny.

 

[ort]

Yeah, the Blues need to trade for a serviceable 3rd liner. Someone cheap. Or someone pretty good for a rental.

I wouldn't have thought that this team should be trading for a rental, but if they can trade a prospect or some picks for an actual impact forward at the deadline, this is probably a good year to do it.

 

[Brian39]

Has thorburn looked good, or are Uppy and Brodz just sadly better linemates than Paajarvi and Sundqvist? Remember, Upshall and Brodziak both were former 20 goal scorers. They have skill, they just can be more consistently effective in a 4th line role, so they adapted their game. Its allowed them to stay relevant as they age. However, both have multiple seasons as good or better than Paajarvi's best. And Paajarvi's best is looking like a fluke now. I believe Jaskin has more points playing with the 4th line than the 3rd (have not checked, just going by very faulty memory). The third is just a bunch of support players with nobody who can drive offense. Our 4th actually does a better job at that. I think Thorburn's points are more a product of that, than any usefulness he brings. Thorburn isn't as bad as he was early on or as I feared, but it is more of a non-negative than a positive impact (*note, I was unable to watch the last two games aside from highlights, so if Thorburn was Crosby-esque there, I missed it)..

I think the last 2 games were by far his best 2 games as a Blue. I have been a huge critic of him all year, but he has really played well lately.

 

[mk80]

I think our third line is going to be what it is for the most part this year with different guys plugging in and out, the addition of Berglund will help the team especially if he plays like he did last year. I'd like to see what Barbashev could do with some more playing time on that line, as I think he still has some improvement in his game but I think he could be serviceable right now.

For the future I think if we can find the room to get Sundqvist on an AHL top line to improve his game there for another year, he would come back a much better player. At 22 GP so far this year that is the most NHL games he has played since coming to North America in the Penguins system in 2015-16. Honestly I think had we had Berglund and Fabbri to start the year that's where I think he would have been placed to start.