Line Combos: The bottom six problem

[Reality Czech]

It could be much, much worse honestly. At least our current mish-mash of third-liners can expect to play to a scoreless stalemate. Throw in some less defensively-aware prospects, and they may struggle to stay on the + side of the ledger.

Not to mention the injury risk. If Kostin is getting dinged up in his limited time in the AHL it could be risky to throw him into the NHL before he's physically and mentally ready.

 

[Renard]

Barbashev needs to earn his way back to the NHL by solid play in the minors. Are we hearing glowing reports about him?

 

[The Note in MI]

Barby has been pedestrian.

 

[Renard]

Poor Steen. He is playing right wing on the second line, only because we have no one else to plug in.

Someone mentioned about that Armstrong wants to see how we do after ten games of Berglund in the lineup before pursuing any acquisitions. In the meantime, I hope they keep Sundqvist in the lineup. Jaskin and Paajarvi have their virtues, but they can't score. Maybe Sundqvist can't either, but he needs more of a chance than he has had so far.

I wonder if they would give Musil an opportunity. He is a big strong guy, and is a right handed shot. He is more of a third line (or fourth line prospect) but maybe he can help.

 

[Dbrownss]

Id really like to push Steen to the 3rd line

Schwartz Schenn Tarasenko
Sobotka Stastny ??????
Steen Berglund Sundqvist( i guess)
Upshall Brodziak Jaskin

Paajarvi/Thorburn

Look at the rookies till one takes the spot, if none do, then look for a trade.

We have enough options that a trade isn't urgent.

 

[Bye Felicia]

You know who is the best fit in the NHL for the Blues' lineup issues?

Robby Fabbri.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

You know who is the best fit in the NHL for the Blues' lineup issues?

Robby Fabbri.

 

[Brian39]

Poor Steen. He is playing right wing on the second line, only because we have no one else to plug in.

Someone mentioned about that Armstrong wants to see how we do after ten games of Berglund in the lineup before pursuing any acquisitions. In the meantime, I hope they keep Sundqvist in the lineup. Jaskin and Paajarvi have their virtues, but they can't score. Maybe Sundqvist can't either, but he needs more of a chance than he has had so far.

I wonder if they would give Musil an opportunity. He is a big strong guy, and is a right handed shot. He is more of a third line (or fourth line prospect) but maybe he can help.

Do you feel that he hasn't been given a fair chance or do you mean that we don't have a large enough sample size?

I disagree that he deserves more of a chance. He may eventually become able to score, but he has demonstrated to me that he can't at this stage of his career. He has almost exclusively been played on the 3rd line, just like Paajarvi and Jaskin. Jaskin had a very brief stay with Schenn/Schwartz (less time than Blais got) and has also been on the 4th line at times this year. Paajarvi has been almost exclusively a 3rd line player except for a period or two with Tarasenko. Sunqvist has played 18 of our 20 games, so it's not like he isn't getting an opportunity.

With very similar opportunities/usage, Jaskin has 5 points (1 goal), Paajarvi has 3 points (2 goals), and Sundqvist has 2 points (0 goals). Paajarvi has been able to score in the past (13 points in 32 games last year). Jaskin is on pace to well outproduce Sundqvist this season and has a better career scoring pace than Sundqvist's current .111 ppg pace.

So how have Jaskin and Paajarvi proven an inability to score while Sundqvist deserves more of a chance? Sundqvist is exactly a year younger than Jaskin, so I don't think it's fair to say he has way more room for development than Jaskin. He scored 4 points in 28 NHL games before joining the Blues and has 2 points in 18 games this year. I'm comfortable saying that at this point in time he has demonstrated an inability to score.

To be clear, I don't think any of them are legit NHL 3rd liners right now. I'm firmly in the camp that thinks we need another true top 9 forward to make a playoff run, even once Bergie gets back. I wholeheartedly believe that Berglund and 2 of Jaskin/Paajarvi/Sundqvist/Bennet/internal other is not a good enough 3rd line to win a Cup. However, even if he acquire another forward, one of those guys is going to be on the 3rd line. I don't think any of them deserve to be penciled in there and I'd have an open competition. IMO, Jaskin and Paajarvi are just as likely to be our last top 9 forward than Sundqvist.

 

[EastonBlues22]

You know who is the best fit in the NHL for the Blues' lineup issues?

Robby Fabbri.

How is that?

Adding Fabbri back into the mix doesn't address the weakness on the right side, unless you consider the "best" solution to be Fabbri playing center and pushing Schenn over to RW.

Given Fabbri's complete lack of NHL experience at center and Schenn's current level of play in the middle, I doubt that's the optimal solution even if Schenn continued to play well on the wing.

Adding Fabbri would push a current top 6 player down to the third line, ostensibly strengthening that, but adding literally any top 6 player to the team would accomplish the same thing.

 

[abel17]

I really think that third line could have used a Kyrou or even Thomas. I think the inexperience and potential defensive liabilities could be covered by the other two but that line really lacks a dynamic offensive player like Fabbri has recently provided. We basically have two 4th lines as it stands now. If you had told me before the year Paajarvi-Brodziak/Sundqvist-Jaskin would be the 4th line that would have seemed reasonable - hell there are probably a lot of better 4th lines out there right now.

 

[Dbrownss]

How is that?

Adding Fabbri back into the mix doesn't address the weakness on the right side, unless you consider the "best" solution to be Fabbri playing center and pushing Schenn over to RW.

Given Fabbri's complete lack of NHL experience at center and Schenn's current level of play in the middle, I doubt that's the optimal solution even if Schenn continued to play well on the wing.

Adding Fabbri would push a current top 6 player down to the third line, ostensibly strengthening that, but adding literally any top 6 player to the team would accomplish the same thing.

Yeo mentioned Fabbri as the 3C in camp. Considering he can create his own offense it makes sense if they had any hint that Schenn would be close to this good.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Blues have been talking about Fabbri as a center for a few years now, but it hasn't taken hold for various reasons.

The Blues current structure in the defensive zone eases the center's burden somewhat and can help cover for any defensive flaws that might be there, so that's one factor in favor of a potential Fabbri fit at the position that didn't exist before under Hitchcock, but we still have no real tangible reason to believe that Fabbri will thrive in that role.

Defensively, the position doesn't play to any of his strengths. He doesn't have the physical strength and leverage to wall off people in board battles down low, and he doesn't have the reach to separate people from pucks while maintaining defensive positioning on them. Combine that with the wear-and-tear of the constant physical grind, and it is a pretty forced fit from a defensive standpoint.

I do like how his offensive skill set fits at the center position, but that's best leveraged on an offensively talented line that's going to see sheltered/favorable usage. Having him center the third line doesn't check either box.

Long-term, I doubt it sticks even if they experiment with it a bit.

 

[Bye Felicia]

How is that?

Adding Fabbri back into the mix doesn't address the weakness on the right side, unless you consider the "best" solution to be Fabbri playing center and pushing Schenn over to RW.

Given Fabbri's complete lack of NHL experience at center and Schenn's current level of play in the middle, I doubt that's the optimal solution even if Schenn continued to play well on the wing.

Adding Fabbri would push a current top 6 player down to the third line, ostensibly strengthening that, but adding literally any top 6 player to the team would accomplish the same thing.

I didn’t give this any great thought or any sort of real thought at all. I’m just still sad that we are missing an excellent internal option for the top 6.

I’m curious though; what is the ideal situation? The Blues add a right-handed shot, and Steen and Sobotka both play on the left side?

What are your thoughts on playing a winger on his off wing? Is it more appropriate for a particular style of play (i.e., someone with an elite shot)?

 

[EastonBlues22]

MPS and Sundqvist have been on the ice for 7 combined ES GF and 8 against. According to naturalstattrick, they've been on the ice for 63 combined high danger ES scoring chances for and 44 against. This is in spite of having the least favorable offensive usage on the team. (Note that these numbers are additive among individuals, so if they were out there together for 1 goal for on the ice, it's being counted as 2 goals for in these numbers even though the impact for the team was only 1 goal. Point being that the on-ice impact for the team is being overstated based on these numbers.)

Jaskin's numbers are even better, but he's spent more time in the top 6 and his usage has been a bit more favorable, so they may be skewed a bit by that.

Collectively, they aren't contributing much offensively, but they definitely aren't hurting the team, either.

Personally, I don't see anything to complain about here, especially given the circumstances. The quality of the special teams play is holding back this team far more than the third line is. The difference between their current efficiency and the 10th best efficiency in both categories is more than 5 net goals already. Compared to the production we had from those units last year, it's almost 7 goals in just 20 games...a pace for approximately a net swing of approximately 28 goals over the course of an 82 game season.

You're going to have a hell of a time trying to bolster a 3rd line to the point where it's almost 30 net goals better than it currently is. Can anyone even name a team with a 3rd line that dominates its competition to that degree? I doubt it.

I don't know what the best teams regularly get from their third lines, but I feel like a team is doing pretty good if its third line can eke out a net gain of 5-10 goals at ES over the course of a season. There were 16 teams last year that had a positive goal differential, and the average positive differential for those teams was +30.5 goals. A third line contributing 5-10 net goals would represent 17-33% of that total, which seems high (especially at the upper end) considering that there are three other lines and two special teams that also factor into that mix.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I didn’t give this any great thought or any sort of real thought at all. I’m just still sad that we are missing an excellent internal option for the top 6.

I’m curious though; what is the ideal situation? The Blues add a right-handed shot, and Steen and Sobotka both play on the left side?

What are your thoughts on playing a winger on his off wing? Is it more appropriate for a particular style of play (i.e., someone with an elite shot)?

It's generally something that appeals to talented creative players who like to create their own shot, especially off the rush, and who are generally able to generate dangerous chances further from the net. Playing on your strong side (i.e. RHS on RW) generally favors defending and those who favor simpler North-South offensive games.

I don't think it matters much as long as the player is comfortable and playing a style that complements what the team is trying to do. Having a few talented RHS forwards is nice, especially for designing a PP with more options, but it's not essential.

The Blues have a few options who could fill the RW void internally, perhaps as early as next year, even. I think a pure rental is the way to go if they decide they need middle six help this year. Anyone that could push Steen back to the left side and someone down a line would be ideal. The new guy doesn't need to be an offensive dynamo, but he needs to have enough skill that he can be counted on to participate in top 6 quality plays without routinely killing them.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Look no further than Gustav Nyquist.

Schwartz Schenn Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Nyquist
Sobotka Berglund Jaskin
Upshall Brodziak Paajarvi

 

[Mike Liut]

Look no further than Gustav Nyquist.

Schwartz Schenn Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Nyquist
Sobotka Berglund Jaskin
Upshall Brodziak Paajarvi

1) how long is he signed
2) salary
3) what is our offer

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Under $5M for this and next year.

Barbashev+Gunnarsson

 

[Mike Liut]

Under $5M for this and next year.

Barbashev+Gunnarsson

Your 3rd line looks a heck of a lot better than it does now too. 3 legit scoring lines. Well, 2.5 anyway lol

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Bring in one of the kids on 3RW ltoward the end of the season.

 

[Mike Liut]

I like jaskin there

 

[Renard]

Do you feel that he hasn't been given a fair chance or do you mean that we don't have a large enough sample size?

I disagree that he deserves more of a chance. He may eventually become able to score, but he has demonstrated to me that he can't at this stage of his career. He has almost exclusively been played on the 3rd line, just like Paajarvi and Jaskin. Jaskin had a very brief stay with Schenn/Schwartz (less time than Blais got) and has also been on the 4th line at times this year. Paajarvi has been almost exclusively a 3rd line player except for a period or two with Tarasenko. Sunqvist has played 18 of our 20 games, so it's not like he isn't getting an opportunity.

With very similar opportunities/usage, Jaskin has 5 points (1 goal), Paajarvi has 3 points (2 goals), and Sundqvist has 2 points (0 goals). Paajarvi has been able to score in the past (13 points in 32 games last year). Jaskin is on pace to well outproduce Sundqvist this season and has a better career scoring pace than Sundqvist's current .111 ppg pace.

So how have Jaskin and Paajarvi proven an inability to score while Sundqvist deserves more of a chance? Sundqvist is exactly a year younger than Jaskin, so I don't think it's fair to say he has way more room for development than Jaskin. He scored 4 points in 28 NHL games before joining the Blues and has 2 points in 18 games this year. I'm comfortable saying that at this point in time he has demonstrated an inability to score.

To be clear, I don't think any of them are legit NHL 3rd liners right now. I'm firmly in the camp that thinks we need another true top 9 forward to make a playoff run, even once Bergie gets back. I wholeheartedly believe that Berglund and 2 of Jaskin/Paajarvi/Sundqvist/Bennet/internal other is not a good enough 3rd line to win a Cup. However, even if he acquire another forward, one of those guys is going to be on the 3rd line. I don't think any of them deserve to be penciled in there and I'd have an open competition. IMO, Jaskin and Paajarvi are just as likely to be our last top 9 forward than Sundqvist.

The Blues have shown infinite patience with Jaskin. Hitchcock, especially, was in Jaskin's corner from the start, driving to the airport when Jaskin first came here from junior hockey. Jaskin has played in over 200 NHL games, all with St. Louis. He is in his sixth NHL season.

Paajarvi is in his eighth NHL season, has played 327 NHL games. I kept hoping that he would pop in a couple of goals, get confidence, and take off. But it hasn't happened.

Sundqvist has played in 46 NHL games, mostly with Pittsburgh. I doubt that he got much ice time with Pittsburgh, it being a top team the last two years. We don't know what we have in Sundqvist. Maybe he will struggle to score in the NHL. But we do know what we have in Jaskin and Paajarvi - two guys who have their good points, but we know they can't be counted on to chip in with goal scoring.

 

[Renard]

MPS and Sundqvist have been on the ice for 7 combined ES GF and 8 against. According to naturalstattrick, they've been on the ice for 63 combined high danger ES scoring chances for and 44 against. This is in spite of having the least favorable offensive usage on the team. (Note that these numbers are additive among individuals, so if they were out there together for 1 goal for on the ice, it's being counted as 2 goals for in these numbers even though the impact for the team was only 1 goal. Point being that the on-ice impact for the team is being overstated based on these numbers.)

Jaskin's numbers are even better, but he's spent more time in the top 6 and his usage has been a bit more favorable, so they may be skewed a bit by that.

Collectively, they aren't contributing much offensively, but they definitely aren't hurting the team, either.

Personally, I don't see anything to complain about here, especially given the circumstances. The quality of the special teams play is holding back this team far more than the third line is. The difference between their current efficiency and the 10th best efficiency in both categories is more than 5 net goals already. Compared to the production we had from those units last year, it's almost 7 goals in just 20 games...a pace for approximately a net swing of approximately 28 goals over the course of an 82 game season.

You're going to have a hell of a time trying to bolster a 3rd line to the point where it's almost 30 net goals better than it currently is. Can anyone even name a team with a 3rd line that dominates its competition to that degree? I doubt it.

I don't know what the best teams regularly get from their third lines, but I feel like a team is doing pretty good if its third line can eke out a net gain of 5-10 goals at ES over the course of a season. There were 16 teams last year that had a positive goal differential, and the average positive differential for those teams was +30.5 goals. A third line contributing 5-10 net goals would represent 17-33% of that total, which seems high (especially at the upper end) considering that there are three other lines and two special teams that also factor into that mix.

I don't follow other teams in the NHL, so I can't tell you much about other teams' third lines. But I have followed the Blues a long time, and I remember a third line in the '80-81 season which had two twenty goal scorers and one thirty goal scorer.

Our current third line may not be the biggest problem on the team, but this thread is about the bottom six. I see it as a problem if the third line can't get and keep puck possesson in the offensive zone, and can't generate scoring opportunites.

 

[KirkOut]

I think we will end up bringing in a 2nd or 3rd line winger before the deadline. Sobotka-Berglund-Jaskin isn’t the worst outcome by the time the playoffs roll around

 

[Dbrownss]

I think we will end up bringing in a 2nd or 3rd line winger before the deadline. Sobotka-Berglund-Jaskin isn’t the worst outcome by the time the playoffs roll around

Why do we keep putting Sobokta to the 3rd line? He's looked more comfortable then Steen. He honestly looks like a top 6 guy now. I know it doesn't really matter as he doesn't read the boards but it feels like were just not giving him enough credit. Im on board with getting a pure rental or 2yr contract RW. Problem is all the targets id have are in teams that are looking to make the playoffs.

Schwartz Schenn Tarasenko
Sobotka Stastny ?????
Steen Berglund Sundqvist(meh)
Upshall Brodziak Jaskin

Maybe throw Paajarvi on the 3rd, slide Sunny to the 4th and move Brodziak to the wing(i think his tank is too emptied for c duties). We have options but they are all kinda meh. That 2RW needs to be a homerun pick up though