The Babcocalypse: Babcock to Toronto

[SpookyTsuki]

It wouldn't even be the first time. Are we forgetting he took a 95 point Ducks and turned them into a 76 point Ducks the following year? I guess those 10 wins just slipped away from him somehow.

Gigueres pads werent that good anymore.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Right. A different coach would squeeze 15 more wins out of the same talent.

Maybe a couple, but 15? What talent upgrades did they get yesterday to help Babcock out? Did I miss them adding a couple of superstars?

And hey...there's a first time for everything, including Babcock missing the playoffs.

They had a terrible coach who posted abysmal possession numbers in Mr. I-Can't-Operate-A-Toaster. Babcock's been a positive possession number coach his entire career. Toronto was like like 10 points out of a playoff spot the year before this season. It is not inconceivable. But if they trade Kessel and Phaneuf this summer, you're absolutely right. Depends on what they do.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

They had a terrible coach who posted abysmal possession numbers in Mr. I-Can't-Operate-A-Toaster. Babcock's been a positive possession number coach his entire career. Toronto was like like 10 points out of a playoff spot the year before this season. It is not inconceivable. But if they trade Kessel and Phaneuf this summer, you're absolutely right. Depends on what they do.

Oops, That was this year

But they did have Six that were close to minus 20

 

[Bench]

They had a terrible coach who posted abysmal possession numbers in Mr. I-Can't-Operate-A-Toaster. Babcock's been a positive possession number coach his entire career. Toronto was like like 10 points out of a playoff spot the year before this season. It is not inconceivable. But if they trade Kessel and Phaneuf this summer, you're absolutely right. Depends on what they do.

When the big guys were all world class players, this was true. But I haven't see the Wings be a true possession team in years.

I understand the shot differential always looks good, but we know how much fools gold that is. Dan Cleary and Bertuzzi were ripping wrist shots from the boards for years and peeling back. That's a +1 guys, keep up the possession.

 

[Pavels Dog]

New york is beating Tampa 3 to 1 right now.

I wonder if Tampa doesnt win a cup if Stamkos truly wants to go to that City called Toronto and play under Babs

It's still a 2-2 series IF the Rangers win tonight. I don't think NYR are looking good at all in this series. They were running around completely outplayed, without a shot on goal for 12 minutes before they made it 2-1. Lundqvist looks tired to me and their defense is somehow having more trouble than us neutralizing not only Johnson but Stamkos. Tampa still has a good chance to make the SCF.

 

[Frk It]

They had a terrible coach who posted abysmal possession numbers in Mr. I-Can't-Operate-A-Toaster. Babcock's been a positive possession number coach his entire career. Toronto was like like 10 points out of a playoff spot the year before this season. It is not inconceivable. But if they trade Kessel and Phaneuf this summer, you're absolutely right. Depends on what they do.

Even still, he's always been coach of a team that is quite a bit better than Toronto currently is.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

It's still a 2-2 series IF the Rangers win tonight. I don't think NYR are looking good at all in this series. They were running around completely outplayed, without a shot on goal for 12 minutes before they made it 2-1. Lundqvist looks tired to me and their defense is somehow having more trouble than us neutralizing not only Johnson but Stamkos. Tampa still has a good chance to make the SCF.

Most times Teams get outplayed but still win because the roster is just 2 good.

which is why I think the Salary cap shouldn't exist.. I mean look at the Rangers D core wingers and goalie If they all played to their potential. It's almost not it's not even a chance to win the cup.

I thought the salary cap was to prevent that. And it's also not like the Rangers have a terrible terrible center core. They just dont have a top center or 2.

 

[Eggberto]

New york is beating Tampa 3 to 1 right now.

I wonder if Tampa doesnt win a cup if Stamkos truly wants to go to that City called Toronto and play under Babs

Honestly I don't see him leaving, but I think a cup finals appearance will make him favor staying. This is his second ECF appearance and I've got to believe if Tampa doesn't put it together this year and comes close again next year (and toronto continues to falter) I think the obvious choice is to stay with the contending team. Personally.

 

[odin1981]

I understand the shot differential always looks good, but we know how much fools gold that is. Dan Cleary and Bertuzzi were ripping wrist shots from the boards for years and peeling back. That's a +1 guys, keep up the possession.

This right here is why CORSI is a farce. I am not against analytics. However all the current "supposed" trackers are jokes. They do not in any way, shape, or form factor in actual possession and true scoring chances. While they are easy to follow with all the "cute" easy to see graphs they do not actually account for real chances.

I would not be surprised in the slightest if every analytic that is tracked by teams are much more in depth and complex that actually account for quality of opportunity.

In 5-10 years there will be good systems that regular people might be aware of but when they actually get released to public knowledge they will already be outdated and improved upon by the teams that release them.

 

[Bench]

I would not be surprised in the slightest if every analytic that is tracked by teams are much more in depth and complex that actually account for quality of opportunity.

The Red Wings already do this. They track scoring chances internally. Babcock or one of the coaches mentioned it, I forget. Anyway, yeah, teams do keep better numbers.

Of course what's the incentive for a team to share data that's actually useful with the competition? None. So everybody keeps their own and we'll never see it.

 

[alfbundy]

It wouldn't even be the first time. Are we forgetting he took a 95 point Ducks and turned them into a 76 point Ducks the following year? I guess those 10 wins just slipped away from him somehow.

And that was with the addition of Fedorov.

 

[odin1981]

Of course what's the incentive for a team to share data that's actually useful with the competition? None. So everybody keeps their own and we'll never see it.

It could be similar to military tactics and technology. When something is outdated by what you currently have it is then disseminated around. Quite a bit of tech from special forces is made publicly aware off after the improvement tech is finished testing and adapted into the units.

So say for this example team x releases analytic y after they are honed in on z because it is better in every way. This keeps opponents behind the times and manipulates them into doing something you know like the back of your hand while you have moved on to new and improved tracking method.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

When the big guys were all world class players, this was true. But I haven't see the Wings be a true possession team in years.

I understand the shot differential always looks good, but we know how much fools gold that is. Dan Cleary and Bertuzzi were ripping wrist shots from the boards for years and peeling back. That's a +1 guys, keep up the possession.

I mean, it's in the statistics. Mike Babcock's Red Wings were almost always in the top third of the league in possession metrics. It didn't look like Scotty Bowman's teams, obviously, but they still held on to the puck longer than their opponents most times than not.(which generally has the highest correlation to long term winning success.)

Here's a graph for reference:

Babcock is often above 50 percent, and his cumulative possession advantage is really, really substantial. For every season he has been a coach, including playoff games, Babcock teams had a 54.6 percent possession advantage over 1,100 games with a corsi of 7100. That is incredible.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Even still, he's always been coach of a team that is quite a bit better than Toronto currently is.

That is definitely true. I'm not saying he will coach them into the playoffs, but barring a major rebuild, it's not out of the realm of possibility.(And I am no Mike Babcock thumper either.)

 

[Syckle78]

Babcock doesn't miss the playoffs. This league is a watered down parity league. He will easily squeeze 15 more wins out of them. That much is a virtual certainty.

You act like 15 more wins is easy to come by. It's not, that's a thirty point swing in the standings. Not only is it not a virtual certainty it's down right ridiculous.

 

[Syckle78]

And that was with the addition of Fedorov.

And with the subtraction of kariya and others.

 

[Bench]

I mean, it's in the statistics.

Right, but what are those statistics saying? They are showing shots for and against. That's Corsi. If I'm reading that chart correctly, it's just showing shots for and against.

And those numbers can be fools gold. The Wings have never been a bad team with Babcock, I'd never say that, but we all remember times when their shot totals looked great but the scoring chances were terrible.

Babcock stresses "putting it on net" in nearly every scenario, so of course the teams are going to look like a corsi darling. Corsi measures the puck moving towards the goal but takes zero accountability to how those chances are created.

I have no doubt Babcock does a good job limiting shots against. That's undisputed. But the shell creates this idea that the Wings are carrying possession on paper... not even close to true for years. When the good defenders dropped off, so did the ability to generate offense and defense.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Right, but what are those statistics saying? They are showing shots for and against. That's Corsi. If I'm reading that chart correctly, it's just showing shots for and against.

And those numbers can be fools gold. The Wings have never been a bad team with Babcock, I'd never say that, but we all remember times when their shot totals looked great but the scoring chances were terrible.

Babcock stresses "putting it on net" in nearly every scenario, so of course the teams are going to look like a corsi darling. Corsi measures the puck moving towards the goal but takes zero accountability to how those chances are created.

I have no doubt Babcock does a good job limiting shots against. That's undisputed. But the shell creates this idea that the Wings are carrying possession on paper... not even close to true for years. When the good defenders dropped off, so did the ability to generate offense and defense.

Well, two things: While, you're absolutely right that it measures total shot attempts, the rationale behind it is based around possession numbers, and over a large enough sample size, it forms a correlation. I.E You shoot more because you have the puck more often, etc. Usually teams with the best corsi numbers are the teams that win championships because they shoot the most and hold the puck the most (ie the LA's and Chicago's)
But you're right, it doesn't measure quality of opportunities, because it can't. But generally, the larger the sample size, the more likely quality scoring chances are generated. So even though Babcock's teams don't always look like they are generating superior scoring opportunities, over a large period of time, it generates wins because his teams have the puck for longer and simply shoot more, generally speaking.
It correlates with the graph, the best numbers were with the championship caliber teams and the worst are the borderline playoff teams.

 

[haulinbass]

I hardly doubt Toronto doesn't unload a few players. Maybe Babcock wouldn't slip the current team into the playoffs but he surely wont finish bottom 5. Toronto understands they need a full rebuild and they understand that it isn't wise to rush it but would also be very foolish to prolong it. It's simple math that they want top 5 picks and they aren't going to get top 5 picks having Babs and not unloading some talent. I'm sure they will decide to keep a couple vets but I would think one of Kessel or Phaneuf has to go.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I hardly doubt Toronto doesn't unload a few players. Maybe Babcock wouldn't slip the current team into the playoffs but he surely wont finish bottom 5. Toronto understands they need a full rebuild and they understand that it isn't wise to rush it but would also be very foolish to prolong it. It's simple math that they want top 5 picks and they aren't going to get top 5 picks having Babs and not unloading some talent. I'm sure they will decide to keep a couple vets but I would think one of Kessel or Phaneuf has to go.

Lots of talk this season of Kessel, Phaneuf, and Bozak all being traded. So, I mean, we'll see what happens.

 

[Fugu]

never mind it was answered

watching the press conference with the Detroit Media, it is very obvious that Babcock truly respected and cherished his time with y'all, and I do wish you luck with Blashill (or whomever you hire)

Thanks, Daisy.

I think Babcock will make Toronto better, so in that sense, it's great for that franchise and its fans. He's incredibly focused, hard-working, doesn't make or accept excuses.

I still think it was time for him to move on, kind of like he was trying to explain, to feel rejuvenated by a new and different type of challenge.

 

[HockeyinHD]

It wouldn't even be the first time. Are we forgetting he took a 95 point Ducks and turned them into a 76 point Ducks the following year? I guess those 10 wins just slipped away from him somehow.

A couple points on this general topic (Babcock and playoffs):

1) That 2002-03 Anaheim roster was not exactly replete with awesomeness. It's all relative to what the rest of the league was like too, but those ducks were Kariya, Sykora, and system. It's a little harder now to defense your way to the Cup because pretty much everyone focuses on defense more now than they did 10-15 years ago, so facing a stifling defensive system isn't the curveball in the playoffs it used to be... but still.

2) That offseason was the one where Kariya left and Fedorov arrived, along with a bunch of other roster changes, and along with a decent amount of blue line injuries. That roster got a lot less defensive minded (33 year old Feds proving he was The Man(tm), Prospal, Oates declining, Havelid stepping back) and didn't really have more offensive firepower to make up for it. Narrow margin.

All that said, do I think Babcock is going to get the Leafs into the playoffs next year? Probably not. I think year 1 is mostly going to be him kicking the bleep out of guys on that roster to see who can stick and who has to go. I don't think the Leafs are actually a 68 point team though, so the 'he's going to account for 15 wins?!?!' thing is a bit much. Toronto was in the playoffs in the short 2013 and they were 10 points out in '14. In '15 they just did the tankapalooza because everyone there knew the organization was a zombie, 68 points isn't representative of that roster.

It could happen, though. I'd say there's maybe a 30% chance of it as of today, but it's not like I look at the East and go 'oh yeah, there are 8 lock teams I'd take ahead of Toronto.' Heck, first year into a transition staff with a transition roster is anybody going to puff the chest and say Detroit is a lock for the playoffs next year? Not me.

And oh man, Toronto in and Detroit out? Oof. There'd be some soul-searching.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Lots of talk this season of Kessel, Phaneuf, and Bozak all being traded. So, I mean, we'll see what happens.

The thing is Kessel and Phaneuf can bring immediate improvements via trade. We have zero trade pieces of that caliber. So I would hold off on making any pronouncements about next year's Leaf team until we see how their roster will look.

 

[Actual Thought*]

Right. A different coach would squeeze 15 more wins out of the same talent.

Maybe a couple, but 15? What talent upgrades did they get yesterday to help Babcock out? Did I miss them adding a couple of superstars?

And hey...there's a first time for everything, including Babcock missing the playoffs.

Effort and accountability actually matter. Structure and discipline actually matter. I know these things don't show up on a stat sheet but I assure you that they are key factors to success.
Look at the Rangers of the 90s. Highest payroll in the league. Lots of talent. Missed playoffs several times. Coaching actually matters and believe it or not there is a reason why those in the know consider Babcock the best in the business.
Don't forget that according to HFboards our roster is complete and total warmed over garbage with very little talent. We have a totally incompetent GM yet Babs took them to the playoffs.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

The thing is Kessel and Phaneuf can bring immediate improvements via trade. We have zero trade pieces of that caliber. So I would hold off on making any pronouncements about next year's Leaf team until we see how their roster will look.

I don't care what trades they make. Toronto is still going to be a lower end bubble team. Kessel and Phaneuf aren't elite, but they will be better than any player Toronto get's in return.

They are a worse version of Detroit.