The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Mac n Gs]

I know there’s not really a lot statistical evidence to back it up, but Vesey really isn’t that bad of a player. He’s good in transition and generated a ton of scoring chances last year because he’s really good around the net. He’s an idea 3LW to me to have on the cheap

The worst thing is Vesey on the powerplay. That’s painful to watch.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I know there’s not really a lot statistical evidence to back it up, but Vesey really isn’t that bad of a player. He’s good in transition and generated a ton of scoring chances last year because he’s really good around the net. He’s an idea 3LW to me to have on the cheap

The worst thing is Vesey on the powerplay. That’s painful to watch.

He kills a lot of offense because he is really bad passing the puck. If he just parked his ass around the net, and cycled the puck instead of holding on to it and looking to make a play he can't, he might be useful.

 

[Ola]

Problem with the eye test #69 trillion: I believe that just existing on the ice more than your peers, even if you don't contribute, improves your perception due to the availability heuristic.

Players are actually rated by ice time. And I don't mean using TOI as an argument and appealing to coaches. I mean players are literally perceived according to TOI to a significant extent.

Some Ds really need a little more time to play their game. Guys like Suter, McD, Yandle and the likes just seem to find a grove being patient enough if they play a bit over 20. If they get down to 17-18 minutes they try to do too much.

However in general, hockey players are different from each other. Hockey is a multifaceted sport so to speak. You need to be able to accomplish a lot of different things on the ice, and your ability very much directly impact the result. With baseball, there may be an X factor. The devil may be in the details. But in the broad picture that is just not the case with hockey. Neither with like soccer. Sure there can be upsets and determination and will can overcome a lot of things against a team that don't execute, but a good hockey team with good players will dominate a less able team.

In that sense, there really isn't even remotely a problem with the "eye test" in hockey. Take this example. Lets say Mike Babcock, Peter Laviolette and Gary Gallant doesn't know anything about Swedish hockey. Let them follow the SHL one season. Then let them create the best possible team they can of players from the SHL. 18+2. I would bet that all these three coaches would pick 12 identical names. I would bet that 14 names would be on 2 of 3 teams. Then 6 names would differ. At least 2-4 of these names would have been considered by all three coaches.

Then pick another team from the SHL being completely blindfolded and only using analytics and let each coach try to coach that team for a month. I can guarantee that neither coach even remotely would like this team better. Or do you think otherwise?

Analytics can be of great help for a coach/scout though, just as watching video can be.

 

[Ola]

I know there’s not really a lot statistical evidence to back it up, but Vesey really isn’t that bad of a player. He’s good in transition and generated a ton of scoring chances last year because he’s really good around the net. He’s an idea 3LW to me to have on the cheap

The worst thing is Vesey on the powerplay. That’s painful to watch.

Vesey is of course a really talented hockey player. He won the Hobey Baker and scored a lot of points. We all saw him do great at Traverse. I didn't see anyone complain about Vesey's game late last season in the POs. He played very well then.

With that said -- Vesey have a problem adjusting to the NHL game. He is a player that could dominate in college because he could hold on to the puck, slow the pace down, then shift gears and maneuver around players. He played a very dominant style in College, always being around the puck dictating the play. He can't do that at all in the NHL. He must play a much smaller role, be very quick in his thought and make the small plays that push his unit in the right direction. And in this context you can see how fast the NHL game is for him.

I definitely think Vesey can adjust more and find smarter ways to contribute in the NHL. He is very good in many areas. But so far he hasn't been able to contribute enough.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

That line doesn't have a real finisher. Kreider is another one who should have more points than he does and Buchnevich's shot is a marshmallow.

But I do think that line will produce more under a coach that lets them volume shoot.

Zib can't see/make plays develop st ES his whole career doe

 

[Machinehead]

Some Ds really need a little more time to play their game. Guys like Suter, McD, Yandle and the likes just seem to find a grove being patient enough if they play a bit over 20. If they get down to 17-18 minutes they try to do too much.

However in general, hockey players are different from each other. Hockey is a multifaceted sport so to speak. You need to be able to accomplish a lot of different things on the ice, and your ability very much directly impact the result. With baseball, there may be an X factor. The devil may be in the details. But in the broad picture that is just not the case with hockey. Neither with like soccer. Sure there can be upsets and determination and will can overcome a lot of things against a team that don't execute, but a good hockey team with good players will dominate a less able team.

In that sense, there really isn't even remotely a problem with the "eye test" in hockey. Take this example. Lets say Mike Babcock, Peter Laviolette and Gary Gallant doesn't know anything about Swedish hockey. Let them follow the SHL one season. Then let them create the best possible team they can of players from the SHL. 18+2. I would bet that all these three coaches would pick 12 identical names. I would bet that 14 names would be on 2 of 3 teams. Then 6 names would differ. At least 2-4 of these names would have been considered by all three coaches.

Then pick another team from the SHL being completely blindfolded and only using analytics and let each coach try to coach that team for a month. I can guarantee that neither coach even remotely would like this team better. Or do you think otherwise?

Analytics can be of great help for a coach/scout though, just as watching video can be.

I take the analytics team, just like 10/12 of the playoffs series.

 

[silverfish]

IMO, there is only one correct answer to this question, and it's elite offense.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

IMO, there is only one correct answer to this question, and it's elite offense.

Give me elite offense with competent defense/goaltending over any other combination.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Offense wins.

 

[Ola]

Give me elite offense with competent defense/goaltending over any other combination.

Couldn’t agree more, it’s what separates the haves from the have nots...

 

[silverfish]

I think Manny may have moved Corsia from his own server to The Nation. New layout/link. Wonder if a lot of people's 'crashing issues' will be solved now.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

I think Manny may have moved Corsia from his own server to The Nation. New layout/link. Wonder if a lot of people's 'crashing issues' will be solved now.

still utterly useless on my iphone 8

 

[silverfish]

still utterly useless on my iphone 8

Oh wow, look at the big shot mr. rich man with his iphone 8
(jk, I have one too)

Navigate to team stats. It looks like skater stats hasn't been migrated.

NHL Team Stats - Corsica Hockey

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Oh wow, look at the big shot mr. rich man with his iphone 8
(jk, I have one too)

Navigate to team stats. It looks like skater stats hasn't been migrated.

NHL Team Stats - Corsica Hockey

Bruh i got mine for like $100

and that page is actually working so hopefully i can actually view skater stuff when it migrates

 

[silverfish]

It's a copycat league. Go and get yourself a +20 GSAE playoff goalie. Also, disband your team and re-enter the league.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I'll one up you and say it doesn't work on my iPhone X

 

[Mac n Gs]

It's a copycat league. Go and get yourself a +20 GSAE playoff goalie. Also, disband your team and re-enter the league.

Google Henrik Lundqvist if you haven’t heard of him. I think he’ll be an underrated player for us next year. His Frolunda numbers are wild and should bode well for NHL success. Also, didn’t someone steal your joke pretty much verbatim in the around the league thread?

Vegas should have lost to Winnipeg. Regular season Vegas was still a good team, and I’m hoping Quinn brings that same structure. His BU teams played that fast north-south game.

 

[silverfish]

Google Henrik Lundqvist if you haven’t heard of him. I think he’ll be an underrated player for us next year. His Frolunda numbers are wild and should bode well for NHL success. Also, didn’t someone steal your joke pretty much verbatim in the around the league thread?

Vegas should have lost to Winnipeg. Regular season Vegas was still a good team, and I’m hoping Quinn brings that same structure. His BU teams played that fast north-south game.

Lundqvist? That overpaid prettyboy who can't handle a rebuild? Please.

 

[silverfish]

@Bozle looks like Player Metrics on Corsica have merged. Break out that fancy shmancy phone and give it a whirl

 

[YoSoyLalo]

@Bozle looks like Player Metrics on Corsica have merged. Break out that fancy shmancy phone and give it a whirl

Now I can be fancy [NOT sophisticated].

 

[Machinehead]

Winnipeg is a better team but at least Vegas is solid

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Winnipeg is a better team but at least Vegas is solid

and MAF is *LITERALLY* a golden god

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Anyone got any thoughts on the penalties drawn stat?

In a sense its a stat I love since a significant portion of the penalties taken -- should -- come from forced defensive breakdowns. And if there is anything you want its players that can do just that, force defensive breakdowns. But looking at the players at the top of the ranking of minors/60 -- there are so many pests there, before the Barzals and co start to show up.

The total minors drawn are a lot better with Barzal 2, Gaudreau 4, Kuch 5, Hischer 6, Trocheck 7 and co forth, but looking at totals are of course a bit tricky since far from everyone play the same and there are injuries etc.

Isn't this stat calibrated? Is it clouded by a lot of roughing minors were the pest and some other guy get one each?

Yeah, this stat needs to be improved upon and when it is, I think it will be very useful.

As a Sharks fan, I can tell you that Timo Meier is near the top of the league in penalties drawn, and creates all of them by creating defensive breakdowns. He is an advanced stats darling already but if you use penalties drawn to try and predict offensive chances, he looks even better.

Perhaps you can take a look at penalties drawn, penalties taken, and iXGF/iHDCF, and try to create something out of that. Guys who draw a lot of penalties do so because defensemen take a lot of penalties in HDCF situations.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It's a copycat league. Go and get yourself a +20 GSAE playoff goalie. Also, disband your team and re-enter the league.

Lol, seriously. Teams are going to “copy” Vegas and be confused when they have mediocre fringe playoff teams and be confused when they get crushed by teams who tanked for their top-5 draft pick superstars in back to back years.

 

[Ola]

Yeah, this stat needs to be improved upon and when it is, I think it will be very useful.

As a Sharks fan, I can tell you that Timo Meier is near the top of the league in penalties drawn, and creates all of them by creating defensive breakdowns. He is an advanced stats darling already but if you use penalties drawn to try and predict offensive chances, he looks even better.

Perhaps you can take a look at penalties drawn, penalties taken, and iXGF/iHDCF, and try to create something out of that. Guys who draw a lot of penalties do so because defensemen take a lot of penalties in HDCF situations.

Absolutely, and thanks for the intel on Meier! Saw him a lot during the WCH, such a strong hockey player.

I have no idea how big the impact is, but it feels like it would be good to at least be able to eliminate the coincidental minor roughing penalties. Looking at players with 40+ games, the difference between 5 overall, Jooris with 1.84, and 100th overall, Tage Thompson with .98, is .86. Over a full season that is 70.5 PIMs. So basically every 10 coincidental minor roughing penalties make you drop like 30 spot in this range.

The top 100 is full with very skilled guys and agitators. How many coincidental minor roughing penalties do like a Wilson get during a season? 5? 10? 20? 30?