The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[GeorgeKaplan]

Also on Dimitri, he had William Kawam on his podcast today to talk about Sather and working for the rangers and analytics and what not. Haven’t listened to it yet but that’s what’s in the description

 

[Mac n Gs]

Doesn’t go too in depth on what analytics we used, but mostly mentioned the changing of the guard to Drury and Gorton and what he did. He kinda did a bunch of little things for us with the CBA, free agency data, etc.

The biggest thing was putting video together when we were interested in Vesey

 

[TheTakedown]

@silverfish, why was Pionk a fluke? You think he's a bottom pairing guy?

 

[silverfish]

@silverfish, why was Pionk a fluke? You think he's a bottom pairing guy?

I think he's one of those guys where the eye-test is misleading because he played a lot of minutes. You see him on the ice a lot, he does a good thing here or there, you remember that.

Meanwhile, the Rangers' offense, relative to team, died when Pionk was on the ice 5v5. On paper, he got torched by his usage. We can't/shouldn't do that to him again in 18-19. He should be eased in on the bottom pairing. Shattenkirk should be able to run wild on 2RD minutes, and we need to find a guy, MONEYPUCK style, to take that 1RD usage.

It remains to be seen what happens to Pionk when/if his usage lightens up. Logic says his play will improve, I'm on board with that, I just don't know by how much.

 

[Irishguy42]

Will be interesting to see what analytics Quinn uses. Seemed like he was very open to using any tool available to him.

What will his "sophisticated stats package" be?

 

[silverfish]

Will be interesting to see what analytics Quinn uses. Seemed like he was very open to using any tool available to him.

What will his "sophisticated stats package" be?

NO SHOTS

 

[TheTakedown]

I think he's one of those guys where the eye-test is misleading because he played a lot of minutes. You see him on the ice a lot, he does a good thing here or there, you remember that.

Meanwhile, the Rangers' offense, relative to team, died when Pionk was on the ice 5v5. On paper, he got torched by his usage. We can't/shouldn't do that to him again in 18-19. He should be eased in on the bottom pairing. Shattenkirk should be able to run wild on 2RD minutes, and we need to find a guy, MONEYPUCK style, to take that 1RD usage.

It remains to be seen what happens to Pionk when/if his usage lightens up. Logic says his play will improve, I'm on board with that, I just don't know by how much.

Makes sense. I still think he's got another level to reach, he is only 22, he has the tools and the IQ to use those tools.

 

[silverfish]

Makes sense. I still think he's got another level to reach, he is only 22, he has the tools and the IQ to use those tools.

Well my very sophisticated model matched him up to Cody Ceci so I'm about ready to jump ship and proclaim him a bust

 

[Ola]

Dimitri Filipovic counted and kept track of all the zone entries/exits himself, those numbers are just for the conference finals, but he posted all the raw totals on twitter

That is awesome, really good stuff.

 

[Ail]

NO SHOTS

ENUF

It will be different this time.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Are there any links to his interview when asked about analytics? Was it during the one at 1130? I may have missed that part

 

[Irishguy42]

Are there any links to his interview when asked about analytics? Was it during the one at 1130? I may have missed that part

Talked about it on the The Michael Kay Show a bit.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Talked about it on the The Michael Kay Show a bit.

Do you know if he has a replay of it?

 

[Irishguy42]

Do you know if he has a replay of it?

I got you fam

David Quinn: 5/24/18

It's about 10.5 minutes in, for the analytics bit. The whole interview is pretty good.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Do you know if he has a replay of it?

He posted it in another thread, but I'm listening to it right now, so here you go

David Quinn: 5/24/18

Edit: beaten to it

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Talked about it on the The Michael Kay Show a bit.

Kay shoulda done a 20 minute interview with AV where he just says “see ya!” for the entirety of it.

 

[Ola]

@silverfish, why was Pionk a fluke? You think he's a bottom pairing guy?

He had horrible data, but at the same time its important to remember that he the last 10 games averaged over 23 minutes a night (by far most on the team), getting the absolut toughest minutes under AV -- and we all know that AV was very consistent with how he matched his team -- as a rookie on a tanking team.

Further -- I think its important to remember that these guys are pieces at the disposal of a coach when building a puzzle and a D pairing is very much the sum of its parts. I don't really think its relevant to talk about Pionk as a No 2/3-4/5-6 type of guy. Pionk plays a very mobile defensive game. He is very strong individually, can take a lot of responsibilities on the ice. When he was used as a go to guy for an entire defense -- like he was last season -- he couldn't quite hold it together. Took too long time with the puck at times, didn't win defensive battles early enough to jump start things, and others have pointed out that he didn't quite connect with his passing which could have been the case, I didn't quite notice it (I noticed many breakdowns, but maybe not that they were Pionk's fault all the time).

With those qualities, I think Pionk could be -- or become, we are talking about a kid that still is developing -- an excellent partner to certain type of defenders. Preferably the bigger, individually, stronger types. Pionk has all the puck skills to be able to develop a really good game with the puck together with a talented partner. OTOH, if you want Pionk to be the go to guy who is supposed to carry his pairing, next to someone like Staal, it could be that he falls a little short in some areas. Time will tell and no matter what -- he is certainly an excellent UDFA pick-up that at the very worst will push the competition within the organization very hard.

 

[Ola]

What is your guys thought on this guy having Lundeström really high based on a statistical evaluation;
2018 NHL Draft: Spring Rankings

 

[Machinehead]

As a coach, it's not a matter of looking at analytics. It's your capacity to say "yeah but I know better."

AV is the king of "I know better."

 

[silverfish]

As a coach, it's not a matter of looking at analytics. It's your capacity to say "yeah but I know better."

AV is the king of "I know better."

It's about getting to the place where instead of only using advanced metrics to back up what you already believe, you're using them to question what you believe when they don't match up. My biggest pet peeve remains the people who shit on shot attempts until it paints a player they like in a specific light.

That's not how this works!

 

[Mac n Gs]

It's about getting to the place where instead of only using advanced metrics to back up what you already believe, you're using them to question what you believe when they don't match up. My biggest pet peeve remains the people who **** on shot attempts until it paints a player they like in a specific light.

That's not how this works!

Confirmation bias is a huge problem, not just in hockey. They’re not perfect, but they’re a tool that should consistently be used to challenge yourself and give yourself a chance to learn

 

[Mac n Gs]

Like Brandon Saad for example. SA put it perfectly in the spec thread, but there's a legit chance he's available this offseason because teams will see his decrease in production and think that he's a fluke now. Couple that with Chicago's desperate cap situation, and you're suddenly in the perfect storm of potentially being able to get a solid first line winger who's a monster in transition in the neutral zone. Imagine Saad being able to drive play up ice and open space up for a kid like Chytil? *drool*

 

[silverfish]

Like Brandon Saad for example. SA put it perfectly in the spec thread, but there's a legit chance he's available this offseason because teams will see his decrease in production and think that he's a fluke now. Couple that with Chicago's desperate cap situation, and you're suddenly in the perfect storm of potentially being able to get a solid first line winger who's a monster in transition in the neutral zone. Imagine Saad being able to drive play up ice and open space up for a kid like Chytil? *drool*

Saader gonna be right back around 25 goals and 55 points next year while driving the shit out of his team's offense and everyone is gonna be surprised.

It's happened to Reilly Smith twice in the past four years. To Eric Staal, which we should all be familiar with.

Sh% dictates too much narrative. It makes sense, but it doesn't make it right.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Like Brandon Saad for example. SA put it perfectly in the spec thread, but there's a legit chance he's available this offseason because teams will see his decrease in production and think that he's a fluke now. Couple that with Chicago's desperate cap situation, and you're suddenly in the perfect storm of potentially being able to get a solid first line winger who's a monster in transition in the neutral zone. Imagine Saad being able to drive play up ice and open space up for a kid like Chytil? *drool*

I brought up a deal around zuccarello+ for Saad before the trade deadline and got yelled out of the spec thread because Saad was too old for a rebuild or something

 

[Mac n Gs]

I brought up a deal around zuccarello+ for Saad before the trade deadline and got yelled out of the spec thread because Saad was too old for a rebuild or something

See that’s something that makes perfect sense for us and Chicago with tweaking. My original proposal was dumb until I edited it