The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases
- Thread starter Bob Richards
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Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
silverfish
got perma'd
Considering some topics that are going on around Twitter and HFNYR today, it's important to keep in mind that advanced stats allow us to separate defensive skill from goalie skill on a game-by-game, and player-by-player basis. We can do this with shot attempts, and now even better, with xG.
For example, AV has decided to bench ADA and Smith in favor of Kampfer and Holden for tonight's game. It's easy to assume his reasoning in this being that Holden and Kampfer were on the ice in a game where the Rangers allowed 0 goals. Wow, 0 goals, that's great.
Fortunately, we have the ability to now see how Kampfer and Holden contributed to the win. And well, they didn't.
http://corsica.hockey/games/?id=2017020031
Holden had a 16% CF% during 5v5 play, coupled with a 28.57% xGF%. He was on the ice for 21 shot attempts against, and 0.80 xGA. Lundqvist essentially saved an entire goal above expectation with Holden on the ice that game.
Kampfer had a 23.08% CF%, during 5v5 play, coupled with a 31.53 xGF%. He was on the ice for 20 shot attempts against, and 0.76 xGA. Lundqvist essentially saved an entire goal above expectation with Kampfer on the ice that game.
If we're talking about "accountability" and Smith and ADA having "bad games", well, I'm not certain why we're not benching Kampfer and Holden then. Are they less accountable? They shouldn't be. It's more likely that AV is simply seeing that his team posted 0 GA, and he doesn't want to mess with the lineup. Pretty simple, pretty wrong.
For example, AV has decided to bench ADA and Smith in favor of Kampfer and Holden for tonight's game. It's easy to assume his reasoning in this being that Holden and Kampfer were on the ice in a game where the Rangers allowed 0 goals. Wow, 0 goals, that's great.
Fortunately, we have the ability to now see how Kampfer and Holden contributed to the win. And well, they didn't.
http://corsica.hockey/games/?id=2017020031
Holden had a 16% CF% during 5v5 play, coupled with a 28.57% xGF%. He was on the ice for 21 shot attempts against, and 0.80 xGA. Lundqvist essentially saved an entire goal above expectation with Holden on the ice that game.
Kampfer had a 23.08% CF%, during 5v5 play, coupled with a 31.53 xGF%. He was on the ice for 20 shot attempts against, and 0.76 xGA. Lundqvist essentially saved an entire goal above expectation with Kampfer on the ice that game.
If we're talking about "accountability" and Smith and ADA having "bad games", well, I'm not certain why we're not benching Kampfer and Holden then. Are they less accountable? They shouldn't be. It's more likely that AV is simply seeing that his team posted 0 GA, and he doesn't want to mess with the lineup. Pretty simple, pretty wrong.
smashing head at wall at this point. i think it's pretty clear AV gives 0 f***s about shots and expected goals, instead opting for odd man rushes and other things they look at on their own, whether that's right or wrong.
but i also feel like it's overanalyzing posting xGf% for 1 game for individual players when the entire team as a whole got outshot 40 to 60%. Everyone was/is a blackhole for shot attempts. DeAngelo was 80% but he played 3 minutes of 5v5.
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the eyetest, to me, says that puck recoveries in the defensive zone are a big big problem and need to be rectified. Lundqvist has 0 to negative impact in the puck retrieval game. Teams can rim/put it behind the net at will knowing our defensemen will get 0 help from the goalie to set pucks up or move it for them.
but i also feel like it's overanalyzing posting xGf% for 1 game for individual players when the entire team as a whole got outshot 40 to 60%. Everyone was/is a blackhole for shot attempts. DeAngelo was 80% but he played 3 minutes of 5v5.
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the eyetest, to me, says that puck recoveries in the defensive zone are a big big problem and need to be rectified. Lundqvist has 0 to negative impact in the puck retrieval game. Teams can rim/put it behind the net at will knowing our defensemen will get 0 help from the goalie to set pucks up or move it for them.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Rangers, under AV, will never really be a team that is liked by possession stats. AV has the team playing a counter-attack style that thrives more on the quality of chances as opposed to the quantity. That isn't to say that advanced stats as a whole don't look favorably on them.
The problem with this is that they generally have issues with transitioning the puck out of the zone regularly. They have some personnel that can do it well, but for the most part, it doesn't happen often enough to be a positive impact.
Hence why NYR get caved in on shots all the time. They do seem to do well with limiting HD chances relatively compared to the size of the beating they take though.
The problem with this is that they generally have issues with transitioning the puck out of the zone regularly. They have some personnel that can do it well, but for the most part, it doesn't happen often enough to be a positive impact.
Hence why NYR get caved in on shots all the time. They do seem to do well with limiting HD chances relatively compared to the size of the beating they take though.
silverfish
got perma'd
100% correct. The whole team was bad. Kampfer and Holden were the worst. Lundqvist is the reason we shut out Montreal. Nothing more, nothing less.
We can use one game to evaluate that, one game. We have years of data that says that Smith is a better option than both of those guys. We don't have the data, but considering how bad Kampfer is, it's likely that ADA is a better option than him, as well.
BlueshirtBlitz
Foolish Samurai
Somebody should sticky SF's page to the first post!
Sitting ADA (TDA?) three games into the season with two nobodies is obscene. You moved your #1 C, how about giving the promising return on the trade some time before replacing him with average-to-bad journeymen? Why? It probably isn't just an AV thing but is it true that most of the 31 NHL coaches would make a similarly bad move?
Sitting ADA (TDA?) three games into the season with two nobodies is obscene. You moved your #1 C, how about giving the promising return on the trade some time before replacing him with average-to-bad journeymen? Why? It probably isn't just an AV thing but is it true that most of the 31 NHL coaches would make a similarly bad move?
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Yep. If the transition scheme was fixed (be it the actual scheme or having better personnel) and became even decent consistently, this team could be good.
Off Sides
Registered User
- Sep 8, 2008
- 9,755
- 5,585
I always thought they were pretty good at transition, just those rush attempts are more likely to be one and done attempts rather than the multiple attempts a good cycling team would get by, well, being good at cycling
No shot goes unblocked with Girardi on the iceDan Girari 50% CF%, 5.9% CFRel%
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
I guess the question becomes, what changed after AV's first season? Other than losing Stralman. We were a good counterattacking team, but could generate offense off offensive zone and cycle plays, our breakouts seemed to be effective, and our forecheck was a weapon.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
AV has fallen more and more in love with playing EA Sports hockey each year. I think it's really that simple.
Perhaps it started in 14-15 as an adjustment to lack of personnel after losing Stralman, but it's snowballed into his own thing at this point.
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
- Jan 17, 2014
- 22,590
- 12,855
Figure I'd quote this again since we're talking about transition hockey.
We're a good transition offense team, albeit I hate our zone exit scheme. Our biggest problem is our transition defense, which stems from our awful forechecking strategy that overcommits guys down low and gives the other team time and space to counterattack us with numbers. Seriously, go rewatch the Toronto game. You'll see us send two guys down low while our 3rd man in off to the side rather than taking up space near the opposing net. All the Toronto d had to do was kick it out to their center providing an outlet option, hook it to their nearside winger, and they were attacking us 4v3.
silverfish
got perma'd
Revel
Dark Sky Enthusiast
That's 3 out of 4 games Carey is firmly in the black on RSAP%. Yet everyone keeps calling him an AHLer.
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
He's basically just a passenger on that line, which is about what you'd expect. Very replaceable.
McDonagh OTOH is otherworldly 4 games in in xG%, even playing mostly with Staal. Skjei and Shattenkirk need to be alot better.
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
- Jan 17, 2014
- 22,590
- 12,855
He does nothing on the ice and is riding shotgun to DD and Vesey/Cracknell. Seriously, he has 3 ICF. Took a bad penalty that led to the GWG for STL tonight. Vesey has been a high volume shooter thus far, which is why I think we'll start seeing his numbers rebound a bit. Carey is a good AAAA guy, but he needs to be in Hartford. He shouldn't be playing over Chytil right now, and he especially doesn't belong once Fast is back in the lineup.
Revel
Dark Sky Enthusiast
Thank You guys.
DB - Comparing him to McD is a little silly, don't ya think? Elite 1st pairing defender vs. 4th line Forward fill-in ...
Carey, in my opinion, is not hurting the team. He keeps up and we're generating shots when he's on the ice...and the opposition is not scoring on him. That's actually a decent thing to happen for a 4th line. Lines 2 & 3, on the other hand, should be more of a focus for criticism...
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
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