The 2018 Panthers off-season thread-Petrovic is back

[letsgrowcactus]

Team gave up 34 shot per game. You can chalk that up to the run and gun style employed by Mr. Boo against everyone but the top shelf teams the last 10 games. Defenders were told to stop joining the rush on the breakout against playoff teams and the Cats were able to stay in many games and win most ala the Bruins.

If Boo thinks that by acquiring a shut down defenseman the teams problem of giving up 34 shots per game will go away, he is sadly mistaken. He just needs to do what he did and tweak the system against the better teams and keep two defenders back......thus preventing the odd man breaks for easy scoring chances.

Handing two slots in the top 9 to Borgstrom and Tippett is a mistake. Let them earn it in camp or the beginning of the season. If they face plant, then ship them to the AHL either at the beginning or 10 games into the season. I find it hard to believe that either of these guys based on last years exposure will have any type of meaningful affect on the team.........unless their off-season programs take them to the next level.

No direct Boughner quotes in the article.

Re: the 34 shots against per game - yes it's bad (3rd worst in the league) , though I wonder what the statistic is since January/February when the team finally started clicking. Also, other teams who gave up a lot of shots include Toronto (4th worst), Colorado (5th), Anaheim (7th) and Tampa (9-10th). Tampa actually allowed 32.7 shots per game same as Buffalo. On the other side of the equation, the five best teams (who gave up least shots per game) are Carolina, Boston, St.Louis, Dallas and Philly. That's only two playoff teams and only one that could be legitimely considered a contender.
Obviously Tampa had some of the best goaltending in the league while Carolina's goaltending was absolutely horrible. I'm not saying it doesn't matter - 34.6 shots per game is awful and it absolutely needs to improve next year. But if you add a good top4 Dman and knowledge of the system, we can probably get closer to the middle of the pack, where having a good offence and decent goaltending can bail you out.

(FWIW we're also tied with Pittsburgh for 1st in "shots for per game".)

While we're looking at "single number stats" - the stats that actually do reasonably correlate with making playoffs are PK% and PP%. Out of the top15 PK teams, only three didn't make the playoffs (6th Flames, 10th Rangers, 14th Dallas). This is where our abominable PK to start the season killed us (we actually finished 16th, which is pretty good given how we started out). With the PP it's similar - 11 of the top 15 teams made playoffs (7th Islanders, 9th Canucks, 12th Canadiens and 13th Rangers didn't make it). Our PK should be okay next year; the PP worries me.

(End numbers ramble)

Re: Tippett and Borgstrom:
Tippett isn't AHL eligible - it's NHL or back to juniors. However, even if you put Borgstrom in the AHL to start the season (and sure, why not), he still affects the Panthers when he's the first/second injury call-up. Wouldn't you rather call up Borgstrom than play Brickley or Balisy?

 

[SoupyFIN]

I don't care if he's selfish, I don't care if he's not a great distributor. I care that he was a defensive liability at 5v5. It's not about warts I think he has, but about warts he actually had last season and didn't have previously.

Something that came to my mind about Trocheck the other day, remember how he likes to take those close to zero angle shots that most of the time miss the net & clear the zone? The debate with Trocheck all season long was that "well he has bad linemates, so he has to do everything by himself". What if that was the opposing team's strategy against Trocheck's line? That they take away his linemates to the point where Trocheck is forced to make the play himself, while counting on the fact that those zero angle shots have a minimal chance of going in. A calculated risk of sorts.

Re: the 34 shots against per game - yes it's bad (3rd worst in the league) , though I wonder what the statistic is since January/February when the team finally started clicking. Also, other teams who gave up a lot of shots include Toronto (4th worst), Colorado (5th), Anaheim (7th) and Tampa (9-10th). Tampa actually allowed 32.7 shots per game same as Buffalo. On the other side of the equation, the five best teams (who gave up least shots per game) are Carolina, Boston, St.Louis, Dallas and Philly. That's only two playoff teams and only one that could be legitimely considered a contender.
Obviously Tampa had some of the best goaltending in the league while Carolina's goaltending was absolutely horrible. I'm not saying it doesn't matter - 34.6 shots per game is awful and it absolutely needs to improve next year. But if you add a good top4 Dman and knowledge of the system, we can probably get closer to the middle of the pack, where having a good offence and decent goaltending can bail you out.

(FWIW we're also tied with Pittsburgh for 1st in "shots for per game".)

While we're looking at "single number stats" - the stats that actually do reasonably correlate with making playoffs are PK% and PP%. Out of the top15 PK teams, only three didn't make the playoffs (6th Flames, 10th Rangers, 14th Dallas). This is where our abominable PK to start the season killed us (we actually finished 16th, which is pretty good given how we started out). With the PP it's similar - 11 of the top 15 teams made playoffs (7th Islanders, 9th Canucks, 12th Canadiens and 13th Rangers didn't make it). Our PK should be okay next year; the PP worries me.

(End numbers ramble)

I wouldn't worry about the shots against too much, the league is trending towards the risk of offense over playing it safe defence. It's a natural course of action that the shots against go up, when the d-men around the league are becoming more & more active offensively.

The goalies invidual skill level also becomes more of a factor this way.

 

[Brokin]

No direct Boughner quotes in the article.

Re: the 34 shots against per game - yes it's bad (3rd worst in the league) , though I wonder what the statistic is since January/February when the team finally started clicking. Also, other teams who gave up a lot of shots include Toronto (4th worst), Colorado (5th), Anaheim (7th) and Tampa (9-10th). Tampa actually allowed 32.7 shots per game same as Buffalo. On the other side of the equation, the five best teams (who gave up least shots per game) are Carolina, Boston, St.Louis, Dallas and Philly. That's only two playoff teams and only one that could be legitimely considered a contender.
Obviously Tampa had some of the best goaltending in the league while Carolina's goaltending was absolutely horrible. I'm not saying it doesn't matter - 34.6 shots per game is awful and it absolutely needs to improve next year. But if you add a good top4 Dman and knowledge of the system, we can probably get closer to the middle of the pack, where having a good offence and decent goaltending can bail you out.

(FWIW we're also tied with Pittsburgh for 1st in "shots for per game".)

While we're looking at "single number stats" - the stats that actually do reasonably correlate with making playoffs are PK% and PP%. Out of the top15 PK teams, only three didn't make the playoffs (6th Flames, 10th Rangers, 14th Dallas). This is where our abominable PK to start the season killed us (we actually finished 16th, which is pretty good given how we started out). With the PP it's similar - 11 of the top 15 teams made playoffs (7th Islanders, 9th Canucks, 12th Canadiens and 13th Rangers didn't make it). Our PK should be okay next year; the PP worries me.

(End numbers ramble)

Re: Tippett and Borgstrom:
Tippett isn't AHL eligible - it's NHL or back to juniors. However, even if you put Borgstrom in the AHL to start the season (and sure, why not), he still affects the Panthers when he's the first/second injury call-up. Wouldn't you rather call up Borgstrom than play Brickley or Balisy?

Nice reply with good backup facts and thoughts.

I found the team started clicking when they actually got the breakouts ironed out and we saw some rotation when the D joined the rush or pinched. It took them forever to get comfortable with the system as Boo jumped back and forth between the run and gun and learning to play basic defense with the occasional neutral zone trap. Even Boo said he was amazed at how many guys didn't understand basic defensive principals.

Anyways, the team struggles offensively unless they are running and gunning with a defender looking to create the odd man rush. It did get better with the improvement in Dadonov's game as he really took Barkov's line to another level. At that point Huby got moved to the 2nd to spread the wealth and the team settled into a nice groove the remainder of the season.

I still don't buy that a shutdown D will change things very much. Whether it's a RHD or a LHD shutdown, I think they plan to move Yandle to the 3rd pairing and PP specialist. Not sure I agree with this after the solid year he just had + I think it would cost them an arm and leg for McD or anyone else of value in a trade. Can't wait to see what they come up with in the off season and how the musical chairs plays out.

As I've mentioned in another post.........goaltending is the white elephant for the next 5 years. No matter how good the D gets, if you don't have elite goaltending it takes the air out of the teams sails. Lu is winding down and Reimer just doesn't cut it as a #1, IMO. Have to hope Lu holds up the next few years otherwise what should be a solid playoff team will struggle.

The other two guys I'm not going to count on next year no matter where they are. As I said, Borgstrom needs to prove he can dominate in the AHL before handing him a slot. His shot and skill are off the charts NHL ready but the rest of his game looks suspect. I have no idea what they plan to do with Tippett other than throw him to the wolves as he will likely spend 1/2 his time in the press box after plugging him in at RW in the top 9 depending on who is struggling. I think he gets overwhelmed.

 

[Brokin]

Over the course of a season, you can get a pretty good idea of how much a player is responsible for what is happening on the ice based on how things pan out when they play with different players and how the players play with or without them.

Here's Dadonov for exemple. FLA 1718 Dadonov With-or-Without You
Anything above the red line is positive. So you can see that when they are not playing with Dadonov, everyone is worse off. You can also see that Dadonov is still very good even without Barkov. It fits with what we could all see during the season, Dadonov was a excellent.
Now here's Trocheck. FLA 1718 Trocheck With-or-Without You
You can see that everyone but Vrbata is better defensively without Trocheck. You can also see that Trocheck had a very good influence on Malgin and it corresponds to what we all saw. Huby-Tro-Malgin was a really good line. But overall, Trocheck was giving up more opportunities than he was generating and it fits with what we could see all season long.

I don't care if he's selfish, I don't care if he's not a great distributor. I care that he was a defensive liability at 5v5. It's not about warts I think he has, but about warts he actually had last season and didn't have previously.

It's not a simple explanation but very complicated IMO. Tro does try and do too much by himself and his TOI wears him out. He has never been noted as a good 5v5 defensive player as he has a tendency to watch the puck or leave the zone too early.

I agree the best combination is Huby and Malgin on his wings. They were the only combination where I saw a comfort level in his game that I hadn't seen since Smith left. But even Smith in 16-17 frustrated Tro with so many missed opportunities that you began to see him morph into a guy who felt he had to carry the line on his own.

Your suggestion that he be moved to the 3rd line is ludicrous. I assume you'd like to plug Borgstrom into his slot on the 2nd as they certainly aren't going to obtain anyone in UFA or a trade without paying a ransom and giving term which totally throws future prospect succession out the window.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

I still don't buy that a shutdown D will change things very much. Whether it's a RHD or a LHD shutdown, I think they plan to move Yandle to the 3rd pairing and PP specialist. Not sure I agree with this after the solid year he just had + I think it would cost them an arm and leg for McD or anyone else of value in a trade. Can't wait to see what they come up with in the off season and how the musical chairs plays out.

One piece doesn't change much at the end of the day unless that one piece is Erik Karlsson. The bottom6 is still a work in progress, defense is still soft, special teams are not making a dent in the score sheets, etc. It would be better if the current group just has to look at themselves in the mirror and wonder how they are going to be a consistent threat in the league rather than waiting for DT to pull off some major trade move in the market place. However, a trade would make things more interesting because I think that some of the guys are too complacent on the outside of the playoffs when the big guns aren't carrying this team on their backs i.e. no secondary scoring and defensive lapses from time to time. Just promote guys from the prospect pipeline into the show to compete for jobs and let things marinate over the next season.

I wouldn't be against for acquiring JVR from the FA since he would relieve Barkov from his duties as a crease man in the PP and a 30 goal scorer would be a nice addition while the team has a lot of cap space and there wouldn't be a need to rush Borg and Tippett to be major point getters immediately.

 

[Brokin]

I wouldn't be against for acquiring JVR from the FA since he would relieve Barkov from his duties as a crease man in the PP and a 30 goal scorer would be a nice addition while the team has a lot of cap space and there wouldn't be a need to rush Borg and Tippett to be major point getters immediately.

Well that would be interesting. They would have to pay big time for the guy..........$6.5M-$7.0M/6 or 7 years to be a permanent fixture top 6 LW. He just turned 29, so maybe you get a few years of value productivity before he starts to slide. Figuring Huby and Dads are the top 6 LW and JVR is presently a 3LW with the Leafs, then Huby becomes expendable in order to move him to top 6. I'll bet that would kill you. Of course RR sees no problem with us getting a top 15 winger or humongous return if that were feasible. It is going to be an interesting summer to see who is really in charge.........Dale or the Committee.

 

[iam76]

anthony greco... anyone still think he has a bottom 6 shot this year?

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

anthony greco... anyone still think he has a bottom 6 shot this year?

There are no spots open so no

 

[Brokin]

There are no spots open so no

Everyone says our bottom six is terrible and there is no room?........Only if Tallon wants to stand pat.

Got to think there will be some trades or waivers if guys like Greco and Hunt can stand out at camp. According to Batting he is probably the fastest player in the AHL and a solid forechecker and PK specialist in addition to potting 29 goals on a crap team. Never say never as our top two centers need a rest from the PK.

 

[Jakeybonz]

It's not a simple explanation but very complicated IMO. Tro does try and do too much by himself and his TOI wears him out. He has never been noted as a good 5v5 defensive player as he has a tendency to watch the puck or leave the zone too early.

I agree the best combination is Huby and Malgin on his wings. They were the only combination where I saw a comfort level in his game that I hadn't seen since Smith left. But even Smith in 16-17 frustrated Tro with so many missed opportunities that you began to see him morph into a guy who felt he had to carry the line on his own.

Your suggestion that he be moved to the 3rd line is ludicrous. I assume you'd like to plug Borgstrom into his slot on the 2nd as they certainly aren't going to obtain anyone in UFA or a trade without paying a ransom and giving term which totally throws future prospect succession out the window.

could tro really not just be a right winger? have we ever tried that? I see him as way more of a speedy scoring winger than a defensively responsible 2C. I'd love to see them try out mccann or borg centering him at least in preseason just to see if it'd work. I think tro would be lethal as a RW. he looks out of place constantly at center. I know its awesome to have a 2C that skilled but what if he's not really meant to be a C? what do u think?

 

[Brokin]

could tro really not just be a right winger? have we ever tried that? I see him as way more of a speedy scoring winger than a defensively responsible 2C. I'd love to see them try out mccann or borg centering him at least in preseason just to see if it'd work. I think tro would be lethal as a RW. he looks out of place constantly at center. I know its awesome to have a 2C that skilled but what if he's not really meant to be a C? what do u think?

When they were shuffling Tro in and out of the 2C or 3C when he was first called up they spotted him on the wing to see how that would work. He was not effective and he didn't trust Bjugs to get him the puck. Boo also throws him on Barkov's wing occasionally when we are behind and not playing so well. He seems to do well with him, but everyone does well with him. Tro is a control freak and he is most effective when he is controlling the play or is playing with a C that can get him the puck in the high scoring areas. Both McCann and Borg would need to take it up two levels for Tro to feel comfortable on their wing. Neither is good in the FO circle and McCann was inconsistent from game to game. Borg needs to work on his grit, first three strides, overall strength and his play without the puck. He certainly has the tools to be better than Tro as a 2C but I think it's gonna take him a year in the AHL with some bumps along the way to make him understand where he needs to be at to be successful in the NHL. The short answer is it's possible but in order for this team to be better, Borgstrom would need to succeed at 2C with Tro and McCann would need to succeed as our 3C. We have to have 3 solid scoring lines.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Everyone says our bottom six is terrible and there is no room?........Only if Tallon wants to stand pat.

Our bottom 6 is terrible because of MacKenzie and Haley. Neither is a player who our GM wants. MacKenzie is ownership and Haley is Boughner. So considering their spots are cemented, who's left? McCann? McGinn? Sceviour? Malgin? I like all those players.

 

[Brokin]

Our bottom 6 is terrible because of MacKenzie and Haley. Neither is a player who our GM wants. MacKenzie is ownership and Haley is Boughner. So considering their spots are cemented, who's left? McCann? McGinn? Sceviour? Malgin? I like all those players.

Well if they ever plan to give our top two guys less TOI, it has to start with the PK.

I think it is going to be a mistake handing slots to Tippett/Borgstrom at camp this coming season but many think it's a done deal. It just becomes more learning on the job and does nothing to reduce Tro/Barkov PK TOI. I don't see us paying big bucks for anyone at RW on the top two lines, so there should be a realistic competition to see who they can move up through the ranks. Nick, Vatrano, Sceviour, Hunt, Malgin and Mamin should all be given a fair shot along with Tippett/Borgstrom.

McCann and McGinn certainly have the inside track on the 3rd line based on last season but I would make them earn it. Both seemed to come alive during the stretch drive but were meh during most of the season. We'll have to see how it plays out based on any off season trades and competition at camp.

 

[Ghoste]

Our bottom 6 is terrible because of MacKenzie and Haley. Neither is a player who our GM wants. MacKenzie is ownership and Haley is Boughner. So considering their spots are cemented, who's left? McCann? McGinn? Sceviour? Malgin? I like all those players.

While I do agree Dmac and Haley play more than I think they should, Tallon is an old school guy and has always stocked this team with an enforcer type player. If it wasn't Haley, he'd have some other tough guy on the roster.

-ghoste

 

[KW]

The playoffs are showing so far that the best we can do is what Bruins did. (And we won't be as successful in regular season as Bruins.)

They have a great first line but Marchand and Bergeron play PK a lot too. They couldn't figure out their 2nd and 3rd lines because their vets couldn't skate (R Nash, D Backer, D Krejci) - we have that problem big time on the 4th and some extent on the 3rd with McGinn.

Vegas and Tampa are showing that you need fast skilled young guys who get put on with experienced but not slow guys. But I think youth has its limit too - you need the experience factor. Just not slow.

 

[Jakeybonz]

When they were shuffling Tro in and out of the 2C or 3C when he was first called up they spotted him on the wing to see how that would work. He was not effective and he didn't trust Bjugs to get him the puck. Boo also throws him on Barkov's wing occasionally when we are behind and not playing so well. He seems to do well with him, but everyone does well with him. Tro is a control freak and he is most effective when he is controlling the play or is playing with a C that can get him the puck in the high scoring areas. Both McCann and Borg would need to take it up two levels for Tro to feel comfortable on their wing. Neither is good in the FO circle and McCann was inconsistent from game to game. Borg needs to work on his grit, first three strides, overall strength and his play without the puck. He certainly has the tools to be better than Tro as a 2C but I think it's gonna take him a year in the AHL with some bumps along the way to make him understand where he needs to be at to be successful in the NHL. The short answer is it's possible but in order for this team to be better, Borgstrom would need to succeed at 2C with Tro and McCann would need to succeed as our 3C. We have to have 3 solid scoring lines.

I don't blame tro for not trusting bjug and I def. agree mccann is no permanent fixture at 2C. just was wondering if wing suited tro in general but based on what u said, it seems like wed have to have a very talented 2C if tro is to play RW. borg is the only guy we have with the potential for that role on a permanent basis imo. unless there's someone we could sign/trade for. since tavares is a non starter outside of fantasies, who do u realistically think we could get at 2C and for what? because if we somehow managed a kesler/krejci type which isn't out of the bounds of reality, then we'd have 3 pretty good scoring lines. not a cup contender but certainly quality offense that would be shocking to miss the playoffs with if the young D keeps improving and especially if we manage to also pick up a shut down 4D. i dont agree with boog that yandle should be taken off 1D duty. not after the near norris type 3/4 of a season he just had. if u strip out the first 15-20 games, yandle was incredible on both ends of the ice. i think he deserves the chance to try and replicate that. Luongo def. has another good year in him. next offseason we can worry about 1G. but yea that's gonna be a massive hole to fill.

 

[Dnigly13]

Why should Tavares be a non starter. If the team is serious about winning you try to get JT build three power lines. Load up the 4th line with PK guys.

 

[RainingRats]

Why should Tavares be a non starter. If the team is serious about winning you try to get JT build three power lines. Load up the 4th line with PK guys.

cap space? we need a#1 d more than a #1 c, and a top 6 winger more than a center.

 

[Beezeral]

cap space? we need a#1 d more than a #1 c, and a top 6 winger more than a center.

The Penguins are a perfect example of how elite center depth can more than make up for a lack of a #1 defenseman. That Pitt D is pretty mediocre at best but Malkin and Crobsy take so much pressure off of them that they are rarely exposed.

 

[RainingRats]

The Penguins are a perfect example of how elite center depth can more than make up for a lack of a #1 defenseman. That Pitt D is pretty mediocre at best but Malkin and Crobsy take so much pressure off of them that they are rarely exposed.

I don't disagree with Pitt having amazing center depth but they also have good wingers. Crosby and Malkin are two centers easily in the top 10 of centers, and more likely both are top 5. Kessel is a 90 point player.

I was providing reasons for why it's not really a starter. Tavares should get at least 8million a year for 8 years. That's a big commitment when we have Barkov, Trocheck and hopefully Borgstrom as our centers of the future. We would be adding to a position of strength, instead of trying to improve an area of weakness.

Now if it's Tavares or a top 4 d and some bottom 6 depth, give me Tavares. But I'd much rather have a #1 d instead of #1 center. To take it further, if signing Tavares allows us to trade say Borgstrom + ? for a #1 D then I would be for it but we would likely run into cap space issues.

 

[Beezeral]

I don't disagree with Pitt having amazing center depth but they also have good wingers. Crosby and Malkin are two centers easily in the top 10 of centers, and more likely both are top 5. Kessel is a 90 point player.

I was providing reasons for why it's not really a starter. Tavares should get at least 8million a year for 8 years. That's a big commitment when we have Barkov, Trocheck and hopefully Borgstrom as our centers of the future.

in theory, trocheck would be moved to wing and your top 3 centers long term are Barkov, Tavares, and Borgstrom. It is not going to happen because we aren't a team that goes after the big fish, but there are a lot of reasons why it would make sense. You now have a top 6 that is arguably the best in the NHL

 

[RainingRats]

in theory, trocheck would be moved to wing and your top 3 centers long term are Barkov, Tavares, and Borgstrom. It is not going to happen because we aren't a team that goes after the big fish, but there are a lot of reasons why it would make sense. You now have a top 6 that is arguably the best in the NHL

I don't necessarily agree with this. I think more recently we do. Yandle was the #1 UFA d-man and we got him. We signed Dads who was sought after. There aren't that many really big fish worth going after and it's always competitive.

 

[Beezeral]

I don't necessarily agree with this. I think more recently we do. Yandle was the #1 UFA d-man and we got him. We signed Dads who was sought after. There aren't that many really big fish worth going after and it's always competitive.

Yandle was the computer boys who got run out of town. He was also the top guy in a bit of a down year for FA. Tavares is on a completely different level. Dadanov was sought after, but he wasn't the big fish on the market last year. Shattenkirk, Radulov, and Marleau were the big fish last year and we didn't even try. Tallon's MO is that he tries to get the aging vet who might have one good year left and if that doesn't work, let the young guys pick up the slack.

 

[RainingRats]

Yandle was the computer boys who got run out of town. He was also the top guy in a bit of a down year for FA. Tavares is on a completely different level. Dadanov was sought after, but he wasn't the big fish on the market last year. Shattenkirk, Radulov, and Marleau were the big fish last year and we didn't even try. Tallon's MO is that he tries to get the aging vet who might have one good year left and if that doesn't work, let the young guys pick up the slack.

Like I said, there aren't many top UFAs available. Yandle was a great signing, not sure what the computer boys have to do with it unless you're saying Tallon isn't going to pull the trigger which may be true. And even if it's a down year, Yandle is still the top UFA. There was plenty of interest which is why we traded for his rights.

We don't need Shattenkirk and I'm glad we passed. Yandle is better.

Radulov was a player we pursued, no? Can't get everyone. Dadnov is a better value than Radulov. Marleau wasn't signing here and not really available for the league, he was rumored to stay in SJ or go to Toronto.

We also didn't try last year because it sounded like we had no budget(?) and we didn't need to tap the UFA market last offseason. We should have not screwed up the expansion draft and we would have been fine.

 

[Beezeral]

Like I said, there aren't many top UFAs available. Yandle was a great signing, not sure what the computer boys have to do with it unless you're saying Tallon isn't going to pull the trigger which may be true. And even if it's a down year, Yandle is still the top UFA. There was plenty of interest which is why we traded for his rights.

I agree that Yandle was a great signing. I was just pointing out that the Computer boys were the ones who made that move. You nailed it. I was saying that Tallon doesn't pull the trigger on a Yandle type move.

Radulov was a player we pursued, no? Can't get everyone. Dadnov is a better value than Radulov. Marleau wasn't signing here and not really available for the league, he was rumored to stay in SJ or go to Toronto.

Radulov was someone the Panthers were linked to because it made so much sense after shedding so much salary in the expansion draft and letting jagr walk, but I don't believe we ever were seriously in the race.

I agree that Dadanov was the better signing but it doesn't change that he wasn't on the list of top guys in FA.