Prospect Info: The 2017 NHL Entry Draft

[avsfan09]

There's a few posters around here who argued against drafting guys like Sergachev, Juoelevi and Chychyrun last season. Aswell as Werenski,Provorov and Hannifin in the 15 draft. (Obviously when we thought we had a shot at them.)

A guy like Jost isn't going to arrive any faster than them and IMO isn't really that much safer. We need to get over the idea that Dmen are risky at the top end of the draft. In recent seasons this just hasn't been the case.

That said I'm not sure if Lilegren compares to those other Dmen listed.

 

[tigervixxxen]

There's a few posters around here who argued against drafting guys like Sergachev, Juoelevi and Chychyrun last season. Aswell as Werenski,Provorov and Hannifin in the 15 draft. (Obviously when we thought we had a shot at them.)

A guy like Jost isn't going to arrive any faster than them and IMO isn't really that much safer. We need to get over the idea that Dmen are risky at the top end of the draft. In recent seasons this just hasn't been the case.

That said I'm not sure if Lilegren compares to those other Dmen listed.

None of them were available to us except Chychrun and when you don't have extra picks or assets it's tough to trade up to get them.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Maybe it's just me, but it sure seems that you're against the idea of drafting a defenseman in the 1st round?

I don't have a preference (at this time) who the Avs pick, but it seems like you're just kind of against it no matter what (maybe I'm wrong though)...

No, not at all. I'm not the greatest fan of Liljegren and I don't subscribe to the take whoever is the top ranked defenseman because you need a defenseman theory. If we somehow end up with an extra first (or if we had the season to put us in that range) I'd be happy to select any of Foote, Valimaki, Hague, Makar, Heiskanen and the like. I prefer two way defenseman to offensive defenseman. You know I liked Sergachev a lot and would have been thrilled if he was the pick. It's going to take more than one year to fix our issues, it's going to take more than one draft. In 2-3 years I hope we have selected the full compliment of high end top pick D, late first, second round and the like. We need everything.

 

[McMetal]

Maybe it's just me, but it sure seems that you're against the idea of drafting a defenseman in the 1st round?

I don't have a preference (at this time) who the Avs pick, but it seems like you're just kind of against it no matter what (maybe I'm wrong though)...

I can't speak for TV, but I'm not against the idea of picking a defenseman high this year categorically, just that specific defenseman. If there was a guy worthy of a top 4 pick I'd be all over it, but there just isn't anybody who screams "must-have" in that range. That's why I've come to either want to pick a forward with it or trade the pick altogether for defense. Reaching with a pick in that range is suicidal.

 

[JoemAvs]

2009 :

Avs #3: Matt Duchene

Ds picked right before and right after: #2 Hedman, #6 OEL


2010: #17 Hishon

Ds in range: #15 Forbort, #22 Tinordi

2011: #2 Landeskog

Ds in range: #4 Larsson, Hamilton #9

#11 Siemens

Ds in range: #10 Brodin, #12 Murphy

2012:

No 1st round pick (in one of the best drafts for Ds picked high in recent memory)


2013:

#1 MacKinnon

Ds in range: Jones #4



2014:

#24 Bleackley

Ds in range: None really. Maybe DeAngelo #19, Masin #35


2015:
#10 : Rantanen

Ds in range: #7 Provorov, #8 Werenski, #13 Zboril, #18 Chabot


2016:
#10: Jost

Ds in range: #9 Sergachev, #13 Bean, #14 McAvoy, #16 Chychrun



Conclusions?

Winning meaningless games at the end of the season and our good goaltending screwed us in 2016 (damn you Subban for that blunder) , 2015 (Provorov and Werenski were very much in range until the guys decided to win way more meaningless games than expected at the end of the season with EJ out injured) and arguably 2009 (Tampa was very much in reach).

Avs passed on good Ds for a forward in 2011, 2013 and 2016.

Avs picked the wrong D in 2011 and were unlucky that Brodin and Hamilton went right ahead of them.

Avs were also unlucky that no D was worth picking in their range in 2010 and 2014.

Avs should never have traded that 2012 pick really.


In the end it has been a combination of bad luck, incompetence, our organisational philosophy and good goaltending (that routinely has won us a few more extra points before this season) as well as the draftboard not falling our way that has screwed us over when it comes to drafting Ds.


Time to change that...

Personally I wouldn't want to add

#3-4 Vilardi
#4-5 Liljegren to the list.

But that is just me.

 

[henchman21]

IMO it is pretty clear the Avs don't like drafting D high... they are either going to have to change that, or struggle to get D prospects in trades with core players. Problem with the latter strategy, you're always taking the extra risk in the deal and dealing the best player in the trade.

Not taking Chychrun or McAvoy last year was a clear mistake IMO (not talking bad about Jost, just saying they should have went D). The 'need' for a Duchene/Landy trade for Carlo/McAvoy/Hanifin (just including Carlo because of his name has been thrown around, not that I think he is a similar caliber) simply wouldn't be there. The Avs could just be going after the best young players they could get, forward or defensemen. Right now they are pigeon holed.

 

[CalderKing21]

As diehard as I am for picking a D man in the top of the draft, this is the one year in which I would have to say that IF...IF we get the #1 overall pick, you have to take Patrick.
If we end up with #2 and we pass on Liljegren then there are some serious thought problems with the Avs FO.

The Avs have never liked taking D men high, even when PL was in charge. The franchise has to at some point move past that line of thinking. Just as hard as it is to find an elite forward the lower you pick in the draft, so to is it hard to find and elite D man, especially when your franchise historically is bad at picking them later in the draft.

Heck, as much as I believe Shattenkirk to be overrated by some fans, he was the #14 pick in 2007 and is probably the best D man we have developed, Barrie could be argued as the #1 and Shattenkirk #2 but it depends on your preference.

 

[tigervixxxen]

As diehard as I am for picking a D man in the top of the draft, this is the one year in which I would have to say that IF...IF we get the #1 overall pick, you have to take Patrick.
If we end up with #2 and we pass on Liljegren then there are some serious thought problems with the Avs FO.

The Avs have never liked taking D men high, even when PL was in charge. The franchise has to at some point move past that line of thinking. Just as hard as it is to find an elite forward the lower you pick in the draft, so to is it hard to find and elite D man, especially when your franchise historically is bad at picking them later in the draft.

Heck, as much as I believe Shattenkirk to be overrated by some fans, he was the #14 pick in 2007 and is probably the best D man we have developed, Barrie could be argued as the #1 and Shattenkirk #2 but it depends on your preference.

Have you seen Liljegren play? Are you comfortable making him the franchise cornerstone at D? If the answer is yes to those questions then fine I respect that opinion but just going down the list and picking the first one with defenseman listed next to his name is not a good idea when dealing with a top 5 pick. This org has to basically start over. I'm not pounding the table for them to take a risk on an offensive defenseman with holes in his game just so everyone can feel good about finally taking a defenseman. I wish there was a better or different option, I wish there was a Hanifin or Ekblad or Provorov and it would be easy to pick him but that's not the reality of the situation. If we take a guy who needs a lot of work defensively, have we thought of how long until this org plays him in the NHL?

 

[JoemAvs]

Have you seen Liljegren play? Are you comfortable making him the franchise cornerstone at D? If the answer is yes to those questions then fine I respect that opinion but just going down the list and picking the first one with defenseman listed next to his name is not a good idea when dealing with a top 5 pick. This org has to basically start over. I'm not pounding the table for them to take a risk on an offensive defenseman with holes in his game just so everyone can feel good about finally taking a defenseman. I wish there was a better or different option, I wish there was a Hanifin or Ekblad or Provorov and it would be easy to pick him but that's not the reality of the situation.

I think #2 should be Hischier no matter who is picking.

But after that?

Vilardi?

Are we comfortable with making him a cornerstone forward?

Liljegren should be a great top4 D down the road if he develops reasonably well.

Something the Avs could really use. And arguably way more than a #2 C or another top line winger.


I agree that Liljegren is far from ideal.

But honestly neither are Vilardi, Tippett or Mittelstadt when it comes to the Avs and what they need...

So why not gamble on the D for once?

And does it really matter how long it takes for him to arrive?

Or do you honestly believe this team will be any good in the next 2 years?

 

[McMetal]

I think #2 should be Hischier no matter who is picking.

But after that?

Vilardi?

Are we comfortable with making him a cornerstone forward?

Liljegren should be a great top4 D down the road if he develops reasonably well.

Something the Avs could really use. And arguably way more than a #2 C or another top line winger.


I agree that Liljegren is far from ideal.

But honestly neither are Vilardi, Tippett or Mittelstadt when it comes to the Avs and what they need...

So why not gamble on the D for once?

And does it really matter how long it takes for him to arrive?

Or do you honestly believe this team will be any good in the next 2 years?

Personally, I like Vilardi a lot and think he would be a good fit with the team (not as good as Patrick though). If Mittelstadt is really as dynamic offensively as people say (hard to find tape of him) then I could see him working well too. I'm not really comfortable passing on either for such a boom-or-bust prospect. If we whiff on this pick it will hurt the org for a long time.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Or do you honestly believe this team will be any good in the next 2 years?

Then why is it critical what position is drafted THIS year?

I guess we'll see what the situation is in June if we have more picks, D prospects or young defenders. That could change the situation too.

 

[JoemAvs]

Then why is it critical what position is drafted THIS year?

I guess we'll see what the situation is in June if we have more picks, D prospects or young defenders. That could change the situation too.

Cause you will make the same argument next year or the year after if there is a decision to be made between the forward / D .

And then it might even make sense because the team might be closer to being good and an extra year of waiting might make a difference.


I mean logically speaking you should always draft your Ds before you draft your franchise forwards.

It just makes sense timing wise. That way they will arrive at the same time and Ds developing in the minors also do not have an impact on your (terrible) record and don't worsen your draft picks.

If the Avs really "reboot" this thing, picking a D high this season is the way to go (unless it would be an obvious reach which IMO it might be if we are picking #1 or #2).


I honestly don't even want another 1st this season. If a core guy goes, give me a 2018 1st please.

This is the year to get an extra 2nd or two. Next year is the year where I want those juicy extra 1sts.


@McMetal: There certainly could be an argument made for both Mittelstadt and Vilardi but I personally like them less or atleast the same than Liljegren and I don't think picking Liljegren over them would be a huge reach.

 

[tigervixxxen]

why would I say the same thing next year? I have never said one thing against Dahlin. I have no issue with drafting defensemen. My only two issues are I'm not a big fan of Liljegren in particular or picking the first defenseman on a list because they are the first one on a list. Like I said, I wanted Sergachev last year, he was my top choice! I get you have to start drafting D but we can't go back in a time machine and fix the other years nor does that mean we have to do it this year just to prove to people that they did it. If they don't take a D high in the next 2-3 years then it's a problem but it doesn't HAVE TO be this year.

We are going to trade our franchise forwards for Ds so that will probably be remedied anyway.

 

[JoemAvs]

why would I say the same thing next year? I have never said one thing against Dahlin. I have no issue with drafting defensemen. My only two issues are I'm not a big fan of Liljegren in particular or picking the first defenseman on a list because they are the first one on a list. Like I said, I wanted Sergachev last year, he was my top choice!

We are going to trade our franchise forwards for Ds so that will probably be remedied anyway.

Avs are not lucky enough to end up in a position to pick Dahlin. And even than they will probably find a way to talk themselves into picking Svechnikov over him...

Think the decision will be pretty hard. There will be pretty good forwards and Ds available in next years top10.

And it is okay that you dislike Liljegren. Same way I don't particularly like Vilardi or (way worse) Tippett.

I don't think it is important that the Avs pick D this season. But they have to start doing it sooner or later if they want to get anywhere. And the way things have been going for the Avs it will never be a no-brainer to take that D over the other F. See Mac over Jones for example.
Everyone and their mom had Jones going to the Avs after we won the lottery.

And I personally have Liljegren on the same tier as Vilardi and Mittelstadt right now so to me it would be a no-brainer at #3 or #4 given our defensive woes.


We will see.

Maybe Ilya Sorokin turns into the next Patrick Roy and we will be fine with the garbage we have in front of him...

 

[Foppa2118]

There is the tendency to pick out more faults with more exposure. Chychrun last year is a prime example. The kid was levied criticism from every angle and couldn't win. Somehow was tagged with offensive ceiling questions when Juolevi wasn't (and it isn't a skill set issue as Chychrun has better raw tools).

There is a delicate balance to it all. IMO It is too easy to move up risers, and too easy to drop fallers.

Not that his future is set in stone, but to be fair, he's on pace for 15 pts in 73 games.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Should there be any hesitation about Patrick when it comes to injuries? He missed half a season in 12/13 and a boat-load this season as well. I thought his injury this season was due to the same thing that required surgery last summer?

He's missed a bunch of time and doesn't that often stall development of younger players? Or is he just "that good"? I really know nothing about draft rankings or the effects of injury on developing players so I'm genuinely interested.

 

[Freudian]

I wonder if Luke Schenn and Griffin Reinhart scared some scouts off defenders early. But if that happened, a lot of good defenders picked 6th-10th lately will probably make scouts more defender friendly in the future.

 

[henchman21]

Not that his future is set in stone, but to be fair, he's on pace for 15 pts in 73 games.

In a draft +1 year in the NHL. Chychrun will be a 40ish point defensemen.

 

[Foppa2118]

In a draft +1 year in the NHL. Chychrun will be a 40ish point defensemen.

Maybe, it's certainly possible. I'm not sure either way. Like I said one year isn't enough to define what his carer will be, and he still has another half season to go, but 15 pts would be below some of his comparables. I'm not sure we can say the scouts were categorically wrong about his ceiling yet.

Ekblad for instance put up 39 pts in his draft+1 year. Seth Jones 25 pts and Hannifin 22 pts. None of them have put up 40 pts yet. Jones might be able to this year.

Adam Larsson on the other end of the spectrum put up 18 pts in his draft +2 season, and he's kind of defined himself as more of a defensive defenseman.

 

[PAZ]

Maybe, it's certainly possible. I'm not sure either way. Like I said one year isn't enough to define what his carer will be, and he still has another half season to go, but 15 pts would be below some of his comparables. I'm not sure we can say the scouts were categorically wrong about his ceiling yet.

Ekblad for instance put up 39 pts in his draft+1 year. Seth Jones 25 pts and Hannifin 22 pts. None of them have put up 40 pts yet. Jones might be able to this year.

Adam Larsson on the other end of the spectrum put up 18 pts in his draft +2 season, and he's kind of defined himself as more of a defensive defenseman.

They 100% were wrong, just like they were wrong with Kylington and most likely Day as well. I have no idea why teams are scared to draft high potential defenseman that were highly-touted.

Even if Jones/Hanafin/Larsson don't ever put up 40 points, they're still all #1/2 minute muching defensemen. It baffles my mind how a player like Josh Anderson is drafted higher than Sean Day.

 

[Foppa2118]

They 100% were wrong, just like they were wrong with Kylington and most likely Day as well. I have no idea why teams are scared to draft high potential defenseman that were highly-touted.

Even if Jones/Hanafin/Larsson don't ever put up 40 points, they're still all #1/2 minute muching defensemen. It baffles my mind how a player like Josh Anderson is drafted higher than Sean Day.

You can say you think they'll be wrong. That's fair. But it's not really fair to say they 100% are wrong, because none of those guys has done anything to prove it yet. Chychrun's on pace for 15 pts, Kylington hasn't put up numbers in the AHL, and Day is still in junior, so it's hard to tell.

 

[dahrougem2]

I wonder if Luke Schenn and Griffin Reinhart scared some scouts off defenders early. But if that happened, a lot of good defenders picked 6th-10th lately will probably make scouts more defender friendly in the future.

I think there's a clear similarity there between those two defensemen. Neither of them can skate well nor move the puck well, and that's a recipe for disaster in today's NHL. I don't know if we'll be seeing defensemen like that picked in the top-5 for a long, long time.

Still can't believe the Oilers traded a 1st round pick for Griffin Reinhart.

 

[JoemAvs]

You can say you think they'll be wrong. That's fair. But it's not really fair to say they 100% are wrong, because none of those guys has done anything to say otherwise yet. Chychrun's on pace for 15 pts, Kylington hasn't put up numbers in the AHL, and Day is still in junior, so it's hard to tell.

I would trade Anderson for Day and Jost for Chychrun in a heartbeat right now.

Too bad that NY and ARI are not dumb enough to do that right now.

Of course no one knows the future and the Coyotes and Tippett are doing their best to ruin Chychrun but IMO the scouts absolutely were wrong.

IMO it was pretty obvious that this would happen. But I already spoke about that earlier on in this thread. Don't want to revisit that.



@dahrougem:

Yup. Add Gudbranson, Tinordi, Siemens, McIlrath, etc. to the list. Teams simply haven't or hadn't realized yet that drafting defensive Ds with limited offensive skills high is a thing of the past and will ultimately almost always or atleast more often than not result in a huge failure...

 

[tigervixxxen]

What if the Avs had Logan Stanley as their second D after Sergachev, how would the draft D at all costs folks feel? It's very much a possibility that could have happened.

The thing about Chychrun gets back to what I said earlier about not judging guys against their peers that haven't had the same opportunities. He certainly can prove people wrong but he hasn't yet.

 

[henchman21]

Maybe, it's certainly possible. I'm not sure either way. Like I said one year isn't enough to define what his carer will be, and he still has another half season to go, but 15 pts would be below some of his comparables. I'm not sure we can say the scouts were categorically wrong about his ceiling yet.

Ekblad for instance put up 39 pts in his draft+1 year. Seth Jones 25 pts and Hannifin 22 pts. None of them have put up 40 pts yet. Jones might be able to this year.

Adam Larsson on the other end of the spectrum put up 18 pts in his draft +2 season, and he's kind of defined himself as more of a defensive defenseman.

There was another D who played for Tippett and ended up with 11 points in his rookie season that was 48 games. That was his draft +2 year and he turned out pretty damn good, near elite. The offense will be there with Chychrun, and he will be great defensively.

D a lot of times take a while to get going. Ekblad was a man child and a rarity to play a +1 season like that. Jones is already a legit #1D on one of the best teams in the league (a real big part of that team).

I've never waivered on the kid and won't now. I'm confident in how I evaluate players (and have a decent record). This one season isn't where my evaluation comes from. It comes from a much longer timeframe than that.