Prospect Info: The 2017 NHL Entry Draft

[landy92mack29]

You're bragging about a mid-season ranking?

god no but it's nice when someone who has a little credibility has a similar ranking to you. Also it kinda justifies my tier of Patrick then Hischier/Vilardi/Tippett when some posters thought Tippett especially belongs no where near the top 5. Also that Liljegren likely isn't that franchise D some make him out to be(still has a huge upside but a massive risk for a top 5 pick)

When you actually watch the games vs just checking a box score/youtube highlights/talking out of your ***/etc it's nice to feel a little justified with your views/rankings

 

[RockLobster]

god no but it's nice when someone who has a little credibility has a similar ranking to you. Also it kinda justifies my tier of Patrick then Hischier/Vilardi/Tippett when some posters thought Tippett especially belongs no where near the top 5. Also that Liljegren likely isn't that franchise D some make him out to be(still has a huge upside but a massive risk for a top 5 pick)

Did you read the last McKenzie tweet? NA CSB didn't devalue Patrick w/ his longterm injury, clearly Euro CSB did with Liljegren.

He'll have his opportunity to rise in the rankings, it'll be up to him to make the most of that opportunity.

 

[UncleRisto]

What's going on with the NA Goalies list?

 

[landy92mack29]

Did you read the last McKenzie tweet? NA CSB didn't devalue Patrick w/ his longterm injury, clearly Euro CSB did with Liljegren.

He'll have his opportunity to rise in the rankings, it'll be up to him to make the most of that opportunity.

Because Patrick is proven while Liljegren isn't at all. Patrick has been considered the #1 for this draft for 2+ years

 

[RockLobster]

Because Patrick is proven while Liljegren isn't at all. Patrick has been considered the #1 for this draft for 2+ years

What does any of that have to do with what I posted (which was Bob's tweet on the subject)?

And furthermore, I'd say that people have been eyeing Liljegren as going higher than wherever being the 7th ranked Euro skater would place him for at least a year now, if not more...the point being that how is it fair to label him a "faller" when Euro CSB held his injury/illness against him? Their reasoning is likely based on him not playing much up until recently.

And I'm not saying I disagree with the Patrick at #1, I'm all good with that...it just shows a disconnect to me that NA CSB didn't care that he was injured and has only recently gotten back to playing, while Euro CSB has taken Liljegren's missed time with an illness into their ranking consideration.

And as I said, he'll have his chance to rise (or fall) in the rankings now that he's back.

 

[JoemAvs]

Because Patrick is proven while Liljegren isn't at all. Patrick has been considered the #1 for this draft for 2+ years

And because the european scouts did have a bit too much to drink...

Look at that list.

The only thing I agree with is Pettersson at #2.

The rest of the list is abysmal.

Kostin at #1?
Why didn't he drop due to his injuries`?

Vesalainen and Andersson over Necas?

I agree with Heiskanen being high on the list but certainly not over Liljegren.

That whole top 10 is one big mess...

 

[landy92mack29]

What does any of that have to do with what I posted (which was Bob's tweet on the subject)?

And furthermore, I'd say that people have been eyeing Liljegren as going higher than wherever being the 7th ranked Euro skater would place him for at least a year now, if not more...the point being that how is it fair to label him a "faller" when Euro CSB held his injury/illness against him? Their reasoning is likely based on him not playing much up until recently.

And I'm not saying I disagree with the Patrick at #1, I'm all good with that...it just shows a disconnect to me that NA CSB didn't care that he was injured and has only recently gotten back to playing, while Euro CSB has taken Liljegren's missed time with an illness into their ranking consideration.

And as I said, he'll have his chance to rise (or fall) in the rankings now that he's back.

Patrick has proven what he's capable of for a long time and scouts know what he is(being a late birthday is key to this) while Liljegren hasn't proven over a long enough period what he's capable of. Track record and a players resume over time is huge to scouts. Liljegren has a huge upside/elite skillset so that was the main reason why he was ranked as high as he was early in the year but he isn't proven enough where he can miss time with an injury and his not up to par play so far to stay ranked highly. As you said he can rebound and rise again but he'll have the most pressure on him of any prospect this draft to prove himself and stop his fall imo



For the Avs a top 4 pick seems like a high probability so I'm hoping they go with a forward(Patrick/Hischier/Vilardi/Tippett). People really need to stop with the "D at all costs" opinion for this draft. 2018 has plenty of high end ones where it'll be a reasonable view to have

 

[henchman21]

The CS has Euro and NA scouts separated. They look at things differently. Having different standards among a group of scouts is normal.

Personally, I wouldn't touch Kostin with a 10' pole in the top 15. There is a lot to like about his game, but I have serious concerns over his development and the Russian factor there (I'm not that way about most Russians, him I absolutely have concerns).

I agree there shouldn't be a D at all costs mantra. In the top 3-4 it probably doesn't make sense. 5+ I think you can start making a legit argument that you draft whoever the highest D on the board is. Stay within the tiers... if there happens to be a high rated D in that tier, he should probably be the pick (pending trade returns).

 

[tigervixxxen]

It's not like the two CSs are a different entity. Kostin has barely played and he's currently injured and he is still their top ranked skater. There's just as many questions about him too. Liljegren is going to move out of the top 5 on a lot of lists in the second half, we'll see what Bob's list reveals. The 7th Euro might be a bit harsh but I dont think he's a top 5 pick.

 

[henchman21]

It's not like the two CSs are a different entity. Kostin has barely played and he's currently injured and he is still their top ranked skater. There's just as many questions about him too. Liljegren is going to move out of the top 5 on a lot of lists in the second half, we'll see what Bob's list reveals. The 7th Euro might be a bit harsh but I dont think he's a top 5 pick.

They kinda are... they have different scouting groups responsible for putting the lists together. There is communication between them (especially on players that play on both sides of the pond), but the NA guys run the NA list, the Euro guys run the Euro list.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

What's going on with the NA Goalies list?

You rang?
I have no idea what is up with the NA goalies list. Michael DiPietro has been nothing short of doing great yet he's 7th. I'd put him at least in front of Ian Scott. Really happy to see Dylan Ferguson getting on the list and being in the Top 15 at least for NA goalies. I view him as a potential late round value pick. I'm surprised to see Fulcher and Keyser as high as they are. Keyser will take over the starting position for Oshawa next season though so I can see the temptation in a possible Dylan Wells type boom.

I have no opinion as of right (hopefully will later) about the USHL/NAHL goalies I will say I am surprised to see Jake Oettinger lose his top spot.

 

[UncleRisto]

You rang?

Haha, yeah. Thanks.

 

[S E P H]

I think people are missing a certain point here, CSS rankings are not the "best of" lists. They are lists presented to not only NHL scouting teams, but to other scouting entities like ISS, individual scouts, and just hockey fans in general to focus on which players for the next four months.

Nolan Patrick is 1st overall for the NA list not because he has played like a 1st overall pick since he hasn't played, but he should be every scouts target during the second half before junior playoffs start. It is also the reason why players like Cody Glass is at 8th, Bowers at 13th, and Maker at 10th. It explains why Kostin is 1st, Lias Andersson is 3rd for Europe, and Petruzzelli is 1st for American goalers. All these players are ranked higher than expected is to give names for which ones to examine more closely.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I think people are missing a certain point here, CSS rankings are not the "best of" lists. They are lists presented to not only NHL scouting teams, but to other scouting entities like ISS, individual scouts, and just hockey fans in general to focus on which players for the next four months.

Nolan Patrick is 1st overall for the NA list not because he has played like a 1st overall pick since he hasn't played, but he should be every scouts target during the second half before junior playoffs start. It is also the reason why players like Cody Glass is at 8th, Bowers at 13th, and Maker at 10th. It explains why Kostin is 1st, Lias Andersson is 3rd for Europe, and Petruzzelli is 1st for American goalers. All these players are ranked higher than expected is to give names for which ones to examine more closely.

I always wondered if there was something to it like that, as the CSS rankings always seemed to be wacky to me. Wasn't really sure why people were up in arms this time, as it's no different than every other one of their lists I've ever looked at. Head scratching.. and that actually makes the most sense.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Every list is different, sure. Central scouting is especially bad in regards to mid round picks. Mikko was their top ranked Euro though so they have some things right. It's just more indicative of a trend you'll start seeing when other outlets publish their Midseason lists. ISS isn't great either. I'd say the two best are Bob's because it comes from scouts and Hockey Prospect because I respect their opinions, they are an opinion list but not on the wild end. Everything else is good for thought in some manner. The point is Liljegren is not a top 5 prospect in this draft and I stand by that.

 

[henchman21]

All scouts see things slightly different. Tiers normally form, but in most drafts you can ask scouts to list their top 15 and get 15 different lists.

 

[JoemAvs]

All scouts see things slightly different. Tiers normally form, but in most drafts you can ask scouts to list their top 15 and get 15 different lists.

I hope the second one is an Avs scout and the first one is not.

Although it would explain a lot..


I really hate those reactionary scouts. Development is not linear. The guy that had an amazing draft -1 season and only a decent draft year is usually still better than the guy coming out of nowhere having basically the same decent year in his draft year.

There is no logical explanation for why you would take the latter over the former just because the second guy showed improvement and is trending up in his draft year....


Chychrun

 

[tigervixxxen]

Why does it have to be reactionary? Maybe they see holes in his game. It's not a race to see who has the best draft year, it's determining who is going to have the best NHL career. If a scout believes he has the second best skillset in the draft, fine. But holding him up there because that's where he was or because of the hype or because defenseman (!) is just as bad.

 

[JoemAvs]

Why does it have to be reactionary? Maybe they see holes in his game. It's not a race to see who has the best draft year, it's determining who is going to have the best NHL career. If a scout believes he has the second best skillset in the draft, fine. But holding him up there because that's where he was or because of the hype or because defenseman (!) is just as bad.

I am talking about scouts punishing prospects for being too well known and not living up to the hype of the previous year.

Of course it is all about projecting prospects at the next level.

But there is a real bias against players that do too well in their pre-draft year for whatever reason.

It probably has a lot to do with overscouting prospects. Especially Ds.

Almost everyone in junior has his flaws. Especially Ds.

If you are too good in your pre-draft year, you will get punished for that unless you can 100 % live up to the hype.


Pretty sure that a guy like Merkley or McIsaac or atleast another one of the young studs (maybe even Dahlin) will share that faith and drop because of it next season.



Has been a growing trend lately. Chychrun, Kylington, hell even Day.

None of those guys should have fallen as far as they did. Yes Day looks like a total headcase but still. Anderson over him? Really?

And it looks like Liljegren might join that list soon...


The GM picking him up at around 7-14 will be one lucky dude...

 

[Freudian]

Scout opinions on a player in their draft year should be based on more and better information. It's now they really focus on the players and how a player looks at 17-18 says more than how they look at 16-17.

So a player slipping doesn't have to mean scouts are doing a poor job. More likely they are doing a good job.

 

[henchman21]

Pretty sure that a guy like Merkley or McIsaac or atleast another one of the young studs will share that faith and drop because of it next season.

If he fell... I'd trade a TON to move up. The kid is legit.

Scout opinions on a player in their draft year should be based on more and better information. It's now they really focus on the players and how a player looks at 17-18 says more than how they look at 16-17.

So a player slipping doesn't have to mean scouts are doing a poor job. More likely they are doing a good job.

There is the tendency to pick out more faults with more exposure. Chychrun last year is a prime example. The kid was levied criticism from every angle and couldn't win. Somehow was tagged with offensive ceiling questions when Juolevi wasn't (and it isn't a skill set issue as Chychrun has better raw tools).

There is a delicate balance to it all. IMO It is too easy to move up risers, and too easy to drop fallers.

 

[JoemAvs]

Scout opinions on a player in their draft year should be based on more and better information. It's now they really focus on the players and how a player looks at 17-18 says more than how they look at 16-17.

So a player slipping doesn't have to mean scouts are doing a poor job. More likely they are doing a good job.

That is my whole point. Scouts look at how a player looked at 16-17 and that he has not improved as much as they wanted in his 17-18 year old season. He does not look like the stud they thought he could be at 16-17.

Therefore he will drop below a guy who came out of nowhere putting up an identical season as a 17-18 year old.


This is about expectations. Scouts have them as well as everyother human. A guy surpassing expectations will always go higher than a guy not living up to expectations. Which does not really make sense because they did not start on a level playing field at the start of the season but it is what it is.

But I will stop now. Does not look like many people agree with me.

It is just something I recently noticed...

 

[tigervixxxen]

People have to stop trying to compare players in unequal situations. Some players get opportunities before others because they are either a late birthday, we drafted out of Europe or are given a spot on a team that either has different needs, philosophies or opportunities. When a player's peer group is still in juniors because they have to be or because their team prefers AHL development it's not an equal situation to evaluate. Z got dinged because he went to the AHL whereas maybe a different org plays him and vice versa. Those that get to go to that AHL a year early like Mikko get a leg up too.

 

[henchman21]

People have to stop trying to compare players in unequal situations. Some players get opportunities before others because they are either a late birthday, we drafted out of Europe or are given a spot on a team that either has different needs, philosophies or opportunities. When a player's peer group is still in juniors because they have to be or because their team prefers AHL development it's not an equal situation to evaluate. Z got dinged because he went to the AHL whereas maybe a different org plays him and vice versa. Those that get to go to that AHL a year early like Mikko get a leg up too.

What are you trying to say here... all kids are different and every organization handles things differently. But a scout's job is to evaluate players in unequal situations and try to figure out who will become the best pro.

 

[RockLobster]

Why does it have to be reactionary? Maybe they see holes in his game. It's not a race to see who has the best draft year, it's determining who is going to have the best NHL career. If a scout believes he has the second best skillset in the draft, fine. But holding him up there because that's where he was or because of the hype or because defenseman (!) is just as bad.

Maybe it's just me, but it sure seems that you're against the idea of drafting a defenseman in the 1st round?

I don't have a preference (at this time) who the Avs pick, but it seems like you're just kind of against it no matter what (maybe I'm wrong though)...