Prospect Info: The 2015 NHL Draft Thread V

[Tretyak 20]

Wow he has Kyle Connor in the top 10 at 7.

Someone else said though Button doesn't get to see a lot of these guys, and he just recently saw a bunch of Q games. Why a bunch of kids from the Q sitting at 9-11.

It's not that he doesn't get to see them. What I've heard him say is that he won't rank a player he hasn't seen very high - not that he never sees them. He also still has lots of connections with NHL scouts who will speak to him about prospects off the record.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Draft odds from TG:

Being locked into 6th worst record, means Devils will pick 1st (7.5%), 6th (63%) or 7th (29.5%) in draft, depending on lottery results.

 

[Devils1029]

Reposting from the TSN Mid-Year rankings as I think it all still applies:

"We usually debate the top three picks in any draft for quite some time at our scouting meetings," one scout said. "This year, it took about one minute to say, McDavid-Eichel-Hanifin and there was no debate. We moved on to who's No. 4 almost immediately."

McDavid's teammate in Erie, 6-foot-3 centre Dylan Strome (younger brother of New York Islander Ryan) is No. 4 on TSN's mid-season ranking, followed by 5-foot-11, 160-pound London Knight and OHL scoring leader (35 goals and 93 points in 45 games) Mitch Marner at No. 5. Big 6-foot-4, 215-pound power winger Lawson Crouse of the Kingston Frontenacs is at No. 6.

The margins between those three players from No. 4 through No. 6 are incredibly tight and there's considerable debate amongst scouts over which order they should appear. Suffice to say a team's personal preference on issues such as size and skill will go a long way towards determining which order they get drafted. But these three are the clear consensus options beyond McDavid, Eichel and Hanifin.

Strome is the big centre every NHL team looks for. His vision, playmaking ability and productivity (30 goals and 85 points in 45 games) are elite. But some scouts caution there's no dynamic quality to his game (no "wow factor," as one scout put it) and that he doesn't possess the extra gear or pace that separates McDavid and Eichel from the rest of the field. Still, Strome is the top available pivot next to the Big Two.

Marner has plenty of "wow factor" - a dynamic and creative offensive wizard who makes everyone on the ice better and has the ability to finish plays himself. But at 160 pounds and still under 6 feet, some wonder how well those skills will translate to the pro game. Some scouts cite former Knight Patrick Kane as a comparable, if only because they're both undersized scoring wingers who played in London. Most scouts believe Marner has that special quality that will allow a 160-pounder to thrive and survive in the NHL game, but there's still concern from some over his size.

Crouse, meanwhile, has the physical tools required to play an NHL power game right now. As he demonstrated at the World Junior Championship, he moves extremely well for a big man, protects the puck like a seasoned professional, is a first-rate penalty killer and offers a physical dimension that every NHL team wants and needs. And while he's scored 16 goals in 32 games (on pace for a 34-goal year if he had played every game) on an offensively challenged Frontenac team, the fact he has only 23 points has raises the issue of whether he's projected as a top-line NHL talent, or whether he just looks good playing alongside top point producers.

"The whole Strome-Marner-Crouse debate is fascinating," one scout said. "I think they're all going to be very good NHL players, but there's a different question mark on each of them."

 

[HobokenIrish]

So it looks like in round 1 we are pick 6 or 7 (or sweet Baby Jesus please let us be #1)
Round 2 we will have 36 and 41sh (depending on Florida's finish)
Round 3 we are at 67
Round 4 we are at 97

So we come away with 5 players in the top 100 of a deep draft. Here is hoping we go 5 for 5 with impact players!

Plus pick 157

 

[Tretyak 20]

But it doesn't all still apply. A lot happens between mid-year rankings and the draft. There's no sense in hanging onto mid-year rankings as if they're going to still but accurate at the draft. Go look at Huberdeau's or RNH's mid-year rankings for comparison.

 

[Davegarri]

So it looks like in round 1 we are pick 6 or 7 (or sweet Baby Jesus please let us be #1)
Round 2 we will have 36 and 41sh (depending on Florida's finish)
Round 3 we are at 67
Round 4 we are at 97

So we come away with 5 players in the top 100 of a deep draft. Here is hoping we go 5 for 5 with impact players!

Plus pick 157

The three picks in the top 40-50 range is big. We really need one of those second rounders to become a solid impact player on top of the first rounder.

 

[Tretyak 20]

The three picks in the top 40-50 range is big. We really need one of those second rounders to become a solid impact player on top of the first rounder.

If we can manage one legit 1st liner and two 2nd liners out of the entire draft, it will be one of our most successful drafts ever. I think that's possible.

 

[devilsblood]

Just going off the above mid season report, and the final stats, it looks like Crouse finished the final 24 games going, 13 goals 15 assists.

Pretty steady with his goal output, but a big uptick in assists. Which is reassuring given the 7 assists in his first 32 games was very underwhelming.

 

[devilsblood]

The three picks in the top 40-50 range is big. We really need one of those second rounders to become a solid impact player on top of the first rounder.

The first pick is huge, need to hit there, and then yes one of those 2nd rndrs, need a hit there as well. Do that and things look a lot brighter pretty quickly.

 

[Devils1029]

But it doesn't all still apply. A lot happens between mid-year rankings and the draft. There's no sense in hanging onto mid-year rankings as if they're going to still but accurate at the draft. Go look at Huberdeau's or RNH's mid-year rankings for comparison.

Do you think anyone did enough to crack the top 6? I think that Stome and Marner only helped their causes and Crouse also picked his offensive game up after the WJC's. Did Hanifin drop out of the top 6? Did Provonov move into it? Werenski?

I think the interesting points made was about the three of Marner, Strome and Crouse all having a question about their game and I don't think any of those went away...

Obviously, rankings, especially outside the top 6 this year, I think are a bit all over the board with lots of movement from Sept to February to June....look at Korostelev, a projected 1st rounder that Button now has at #100 and most other services have ranked in the mid-late 2nd rd at best....

 

[Unknown Caller]

You have to take who's left of Strome, Marner, and Crouse at 6.

 

[devilsblood]

You have to take who's left of Strome, Marner, and Crouse at 6.

I think people have gone overboard in not wanting Crouse. Conversely I would not be quick to say we have to pick him if he is there.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Crouse can be a good addition for a team that already has a young group of skilled/offensive minded forwards.
Ex: NYi, Detroit, TB

But, he is definitely not someone we should be drafting at 6th or 7th.
Not when there are better offensive minded/skilled/talented players still on the board.

 

[MNDevilsfan]

Final CSS rankings are out: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=761663

Marner at 6

 

[Devils1029]

Nhl.com report sounds largely similar to what was said in the TSN mid term report.

 

[devilsblood]

#3 Euro skater. Larsson. D-man.

What's with Larsson's and being d-men? Of the 8 Larsson's(including Ekman) listed on NHL.com there are 5 D, one goalie and 2 fwd's. This Jacob guy in the draft would bring it to 6-1-2. That is an abnormal split.

 

[NJDevils#4]

this guy please

 

[yehyeh]

I'm thrilled if we draft Marner.

 

[Tretyak 20]

Do you think anyone did enough to crack the top 6? I think that Stome and Marner only helped their causes and Crouse also picked his offensive game up after the WJC's. Did Hanifin drop out of the top 6? Did Provonov move into it? Werenski?

I think the interesting points made was about the three of Marner, Strome and Crouse all having a question about their game and I don't think any of those went away...

Obviously, rankings, especially outside the top 6 this year, I think are a bit all over the board with lots of movement from Sept to February to June....look at Korostelev, a projected 1st rounder that Button now has at #100 and most other services have ranked in the mid-late 2nd rd at best....

I think it's become the consensus that Hanifin isn't the next Drew Doughty, and that Provorov actually has the higher ceiling. I think a lot of the Crouse fascination has worn off, as well. It's starting to look like there is a consensus that Strome and Marner belong at 3rd and 4th, and that barring a team really loving one player or going for positional need, that will be the order.

Beyond that there's a big bunch of guys in the 5 - 12ish group that are all very close to one another. Then throw in Zacha, who could go practically anywhere from top 10 to early 2nd round. This draft will have a lot of surprises.

You have to take who's left of Strome, Marner, and Crouse at 6.

I really hope we avoid Crouse. He's just too high-risk for us. I could see him ending up as the next Cam Neely or the next Steve Bernier, or anywhere in the middle. The Devils can't afford to be the club that came out of this draft with a 3rd line winger.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I think it's become the consensus that Hanifin isn't the next Drew Doughty, and that Provorov actually has the higher ceiling. I think a lot of the Crouse fascination has worn off, as well. It's starting to look like there is a consensus that Strome and Marner belong at 3rd and 4th, and that barring a team really loving one player or going for positional need, that will be the order.

Beyond that there's a big bunch of guys in the 5 - 12ish group that are all very close to one another. Then throw in Zacha, who could go practically anywhere from top 10 to early 2nd round. This draft will have a lot of surprises.



I really hope we avoid Crouse. He's just too high-risk for us. I could see him ending up as the next Cam Neely or the next Steve Bernier, or anywhere in the middle. The Devils can't afford to be the club that came out of this draft with a 3rd line winger.

I think Crouse is one of the least risky players in the draft. I think a guy like Barzal who doesn't score at a high rate, is injury prone, and tends to play a finesse game on the perimeter of the rink is much more risky. Marner is very risky as well, but his upside is too great to pass up.

 

[Marshal Rochambeau]

And Mitch Marner can turn out like Sam Gagner! Bernier was not a top 5 prospect how can you make that comparison.

Furthermore, Lou WILL take Crouse because the Devils have rarely targeted high scoring players.

 

[Tretyak 20]

I think Crouse is one of the least risky players in the draft. I think a guy like Barzal who doesn't score at a high rate, is injury prone, and tends to play a finesse game on the perimeter of the rink is much more risky. Marner is very risky as well, but his upside is too great to pass up.

It's a different kind of risk, though. Crouse is almost guaranteed to play in the NHL, but whether he turns into a star or a non-remarkable role player is a very big question.

Barzal certainly carries risks, due to size and his seeming dislike for shooting the puck. Personally I'm not a fan.

Marner is all but a lock to play in the NHL, and unless something really unexpected happens in his development I think he's a top 6 player. That's the difference. With most of these other players, the chances of a bust are greater than Crouse, but Crouse's chances of being the better player in five year's time are slim.

 

[MNDevilsfan]

Strome, Marner, and Crouse would all fill needs this team will have going forward IMO.

I really hope they don't get cute and just take whichever of those three guys is available at 6. Inf we get bumped down to 7 and they're all off the board, I could see making a bit more of a reach or thinking about a trade.

 

[Tretyak 20]

And Mitch Marner can turn out like Sam Gagner! Bernier was not a top 5 prospect how can you make that comparison.

Furthermore, Lou WILL take Crouse because the Devils have rarely targeted high scoring players.

Bernier was drafted ahead of Zach Parise and scored as many goals his draft year as Crouse has points.

 

[Brodeur]

Just going off the above mid season report, and the final stats, it looks like Crouse finished the final 24 games going, 13 goals 15 assists.

Pretty steady with his goal output, but a big uptick in assists. Which is reassuring given the 7 assists in his first 32 games was very underwhelming.

Kingston did get Sam Bennett back towards the end of the year which boosted Crouse's assist totals. There was a Kingston STH on the prospects board who said that Crouse was making plays in the first half but simply didn't have linemates who could convert.