Prospect Info: The 2013 NHL Entry Draft [Part VI] From Here To Eternity: 18 Days To The NHL Draft

[RockLobster]

True, but Avalanche didn't know this. That's too bad!

It really sounds like no one in the NHL really knew too much about that scenario.

However, I feel that if the Avalanche opted not to match the deal, and once that information was presented, that Calgary, and perhaps rightly so, would have raised a big protest about it.

I'd much rather have O'Reilly anyway.

 

[nanzenkills]

The sad part is, if Florida had won the lottery and picked Mac and we took Jones at #2, nobody would even say a word about it.

Well of course nobody would have said anything about it. We wouldn't even have the option of picking Mac in your scenario, so there would be nothing to debate.

Since we are fortunate enough to have the option, what's wrong with some discussion about it?

 

[Avs For Life]

This whole "#1 overall d-men always FAILZ" argument is getting beyond annoying. Like a broken record.

The sad part is, if Florida had won the lottery and picked Mac and we took Jones at #2, nobody would even say a word about it.

What the hell difference does it make if he's picked 1st or 2nd overall, if he's our guy he's our guy.

If not, then fine, Mac is our guy. Just please stop with this nonsense.

Ill agree that the argument is getting old, but it does have some validity. Then again, it only takes one to break the mold.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Well of course nobody would have said anything about it. We wouldn't even have the option of picking Mac in your scenario, so there would be nothing to debate.

Since we are fortunate enough to have the option, what's wrong with some discussion about it?

Why not discuss each player as an individual, rather than pulling up boogeyman arguments based on past draft position, coming from people who have never seen either player even play a game?

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Yeah I agree with you, this is how I see it;

40% - Jones
30% - MacKinnon
29% - Doesn't matter who we get
0.9% - Drouin
0.1% - Nichushkin

Just shows you the % of smart people here in HF.

This whole "#1 overall d-men always FAILZ" argument is getting beyond annoying. Like a broken record.

The sad part is, if Florida had won the lottery and picked Mac and we took Jones at #2, nobody would even say a word about it.

What the hell difference does it make if he's picked 1st or 2nd overall, if he's our guy he's our guy.

If not, then fine, Mac is our guy. Just please stop with this nonsense.

Whether it's getting annoying or not there is some truth to it.

 

[Foppa2118]

This whole "#1 overall d-men always FAILZ" argument is getting beyond annoying. Like a broken record.

The sad part is, if Florida had won the lottery and picked Mac and we took Jones at #2, nobody would even say a word about it.

What the hell difference does it make if he's picked 1st or 2nd overall, if he's our guy he's our guy.

If not, then fine, Mac is our guy. Just please stop with this nonsense.

The funniest part is most of us wanted the Avs to tank a bit, and win the lottery so they could get 1st overall. If Florida had won the lottery, everything would have went smoothly, and there would be almost no debate going on, or even drama of potentially trading picks.

Florida most likely would take Mack 1st, and the Avs would have taken Jones 2nd, and there wouldn't be all this pressure of taking a D man 1st overall over Mack.

 

[Freudian]

You make a good point, to take the player who projects to be the best, but ultimately, history has shown that projecting forwards is much more reliable than projecting defensemen.

When was the last time a #1 overall forward pick failed to become a star? You'd have to go back almost 15 years to Patrik Stefan in 1999 to find one that failed in that respect. Every forward picked #1 since then has become a legitimate star in the NHL. In addition to that, in the time frame referenced, even in the years where a forward was not picked #1 overall, the first forward chosen in those drafts has become a legitimate star in all of those years, with the possible exception of 2006 if you don't consider Jordan Staal to be a star.

By contrast, when was the last time a #1 overall picked defenseman was nominated for the Norris Trophy? You'd have to go all the way back to 1973 with Denis Potvin. That means every Norris Trophy nominee that we've had in the 40 years since then was picked lower than #1.

I think we would all be in agreement that a Norris Trophy-nominated defenseman is worth a first overall pick, so it goes to show how unreliable projecting defensemen can be.

If Seth Jones was already playing at a Norris nominee-caliber level right now, then of course I think we should pick him. But since he isn't at that level yet and a fair amount of projection is involved with him, I think we should take MacKinnon, who is almost a sure bet to be a star forward, and address our defense in later rounds or outside the draft.

So basically for being a draft worthy forward you have to be a star (eventually), vague and very inclusive. For being a draft worthy defender you have to be playing at Norris nominee level at 18?

Ignoring the 70s and 80s because scouting and drafting was a completely different monster back then we get five first overall defenders (four of them in the 90s, which was a different time also but at least semi-modern). Four of them never really had Norris caliber offense to start with (EJ, Hamrlik, Phillips, Jovanovski), even in their draft year. They were drafted for their overall game and not to be 60+ point defensemen. So them not getting Norris nominations doesn't mean they are failures as players. It was fully expected.

Berard had the offense, but the eye injury made sure he'd never have a shot to challenge for the Norris.

To basically treat defenders like goalies and never pick them top five, top ten or top fifteen or what limitation you prefer is one way of doing it. I think you would be making a significant mistake based on drawing the wrong conclusions from history and ignoring the massive improvements in player education (they are much closer to being NHL ready now than in the past and easier to project) and scouting.

Also, the first forwards picked in the drafts where defenders went first overall in the 90s: J-P Dumont, Chad Kilger, Radek Bonk and Alexei Yashin. It's not like the teams drafting defenders made mistakes passing on those players and went with the defenders.

I don't have a problem with being philosophically against picking defenders high in a draft. Each to their own. But I do think you guys are doing it by drawing wild conclusions from old and very limited draft data. There is a blanket assumption that the highest ranked defender in a year is basically EJ at best while the sky is the limit for the best forward.

 

[Avs For Life]

The funniest part is most of us wanted the Avs to tank a bit, and win the lottery so they could get 1st overall. If Florida had won the lottery, everything would have went smoothly, and there would be almost no debate going on, or even drama of potentially trading picks.

Florida most likely would take Mack 1st, and the Avs would have taken Jones 2nd, and there wouldn't be all this pressure of taking a D man 1st overall over Mack.

HAHA Its almost like we were cursed with the #1 pick

Of course if we had not won the lottery...Jones would have been just ridiculous in the Memorial Cup and Mack would have been soso...That would have been our luck lol

 

[nanzenkills]

Why not discuss each player as an individual, rather than pulling up boogeyman arguments based on past draft position, coming from people who have never seen either player even play a game?

I've seen both players play, and I like what I see from both players, but I have some question marks on both.

Jones is a great package in terms of skills and size, and he has the tools to become possibly the best defenseman drafted in the last 5 years IMO, but I do have some doubts about his decision making and mental toughness being at an elite level. At this point in time, he turns the puck over more than I'd like to see, too.

Mac has great skills and decent size, though I'd ideally like him to be 2" taller and 20 lbs. heavier. I question whether he'll be able to use the same moves he has in junior effectively in the NHL, but ultimately I think he plays with enough determination and physicality that he'll be a star at the NHL level.

What separates Mac from Jones for me is that in the biggest games at the biggest moments, Mac has stepped up his game more than Jones has, like in the Memorial Cup final and in the Ivan Hlinka final where he was clearly the best player on the ice. Even when the US won the WJC, I thought Jones was good but not necessarily overwhelmingly great, and he certainly wasn't even the best defenseman on his team. I think Colorado needs someone who is going to take his game to the next level in the biggest moments.

 

[Ice Crusher]

You make a good point, to take the player who projects to be the best, but ultimately, history has shown that projecting forwards is much more reliable than projecting defensemen.

When was the last time a #1 overall forward pick failed to become a star? You'd have to go back almost 15 years to Patrik Stefan in 1999 to find one that failed in that respect. Every forward picked #1 since then has become a legitimate star in the NHL. In addition to that, in the time frame referenced, even in the years where a forward was not picked #1 overall, the first forward chosen in those drafts has become a legitimate star in all of those years, with the possible exception of 2006 if you don't consider Jordan Staal to be a star.

By contrast, when was the last time a #1 overall picked defenseman was nominated for the Norris Trophy? You'd have to go all the way back to 1973 with Denis Potvin. That means every Norris Trophy nominee that we've had in the 40 years since then was picked lower than #1.

I think we would all be in agreement that a Norris Trophy-nominated defenseman is worth a first overall pick, so it goes to show how unreliable projecting defensemen can be.

If Seth Jones was already playing at a Norris nominee-caliber level right now, then of course I think we should pick him. But since he isn't at that level yet and a fair amount of projection is involved with him, I think we should take MacKinnon, who is almost a sure bet to be a star forward, and address our defense in later rounds or outside the draft.

Just relying on history of the draft just makes your post irrelevant. Yes, defenceman are harder to predict but that doesn't mean they ain't BPA at the draft. If GM's and director of scouting would think that way of not taking any risks...than they just don't deserve the job! I just think it's part of the job. Just look at the Kings at the 2005 draft. Kopitar was a BIG guess because of lack of scouting reports on him and look what that risk brought to them.

 

[Joe Sakic]

If we pick Jones I just think we will regret it 5 years down the road when we have another Erik Johnson and Florida and Tampa Bay have Jonathan Toews and Niklas Backstrom.

Either way, I want our scouting staff to pick the BPA and if that's Jones to them then so be it.

 

[nanzenkills]

So basically for being a draft worthy forward you have to be a star (eventually), vague and very inclusive. For being a draft worthy defender you have to be playing at Norris nominee level at 18?

You don't have to be a star to be draft worthy, obviously, but historically, I think it's reasonable to expect to get a star out of the 1st overall pick. It's not something that comes along often (unless you are Edmonton), so it's something that should be capitalized on, shouldn't it?

I think Mac is going to be a surefire star at the NHL level, probably a little bit better than Duchene is. I think Jones has the potential to be even better than Mac, but I think he's riskier and could also end up being a slightly above average defenseman at the end of the day. For me, the question is, do you pass up a surefire star forward for a defenseman who could end up better but also could end up significantly worse?

 

[S E P H]

I've seen both players play, and I like what I see from both players, but I have some question marks on both.

Jones is a great package in terms of skills and size, and he has the tools to become possibly the best defenseman drafted in the last 5 years IMO, but I do have some doubts about his decision making and mental toughness being at an elite level. At this point in time, he turns the puck over more than I'd like to see, too.

Mac has great skills and decent size, though I'd ideally like him to be 2" taller and 20 lbs. heavier. I question whether he'll be able to use the same moves he has in junior effectively in the NHL, but ultimately I think he plays with enough determination and physicality that he'll be a star at the NHL level.

What separates Mac from Jones for me is that in the biggest games at the biggest moments, Mac has stepped up his game more than Jones has, like in the Memorial Cup final and in the Ivan Hlinka final where he was clearly the best player on the ice. Even when the US won the WJC, I thought Jones was good but not necessarily overwhelmingly great, and he certainly wasn't even the best defenseman on his team. I think Colorado needs someone who is going to take his game to the next level in the biggest moments.

There is a great post by Avs71 (or Avs19 I forgot which one ) you should look for it basically shows that Jones plays a way tougher position. He basically said that Jones can't go out and create offense by himself he has to wait for the puck to come to him both offensively and defensively. He has to wait for the pass when shooting, he has to wait for the puck to come to him for a breakout and everything in between while MacKinnon goes out gets the puck and creates everything by himself. It shows that defensemen is a way harder position and the numbers Jones has put up for defensemen in those "waiting games" shows he is one hell of a player. It also shows that he creates offense as a defensemen which is really hard to do and shows his talent in skating, hands, and vision. I also think Jones passing is by far one of the best I have seen and his passing as a defensemen is much better than Mackinnon's passing as a forward.

I credit MacKinnon for taking advantage of the scenarios he was put in. Even though the Ivan Hlinka tournament is complete crap to me he got a hat trick in the finals and got a hattrick in the final game of the Memorial Cup too boot. But I do see some biased in your post (MacKinnon pumpin', downgrading Jones) because MacKinnon was complete crap in the WJC, which means the most out the ones we listed. I know the MacKinnon faction will blame the Coach Spott for that, but it still brings me to the next point that Nathan and Drouin were both on the same level and Jonathan completely outplayed MacKinnon. I also disagree in the saying tnhat Jones wasn't great, he was slow at the start of the tourney true, but he progressively got better as it went along and he played freakin fantastic against Canada and solid against Sweden.

Then in the Memorial Cup Jones looked tired and passive, definitely looked anything and every besides solid. But he still came away with 4 points in 5 games and +6 with Carruth in net as well. When Winterhawks needed a huge goal you can say that both of Jones goals were huge in the individual games. Carruth crapped the bed, the hallway, and the toilet in their first meeting which Portland would've won if he wasn't in net and Seth's second goal was huge in the comeback that ultimately fell short. Saying MacKinnon has better game breaking talent over Jones is a joke to me, I think both of them and even Drouin have it IMO.

 

[RockLobster]

If we pick Jones I just think we will regret it 5 years down the road when we have another Erik Johnson and Florida and Tampa Bay have Jonathan Toews and Niklas Backstrom.

Either way, I want our scouting staff to pick the BPA and if that's Jones to them then so be it.

Why are you so positive that Jones will be "another EJ" and that MacKinnon will be a "Toews or Nik Backstrom"?

 

[nanzenkills]

Just relying on history of the draft just makes your post irrelevant. Yes, defenceman are harder to predict but that doesn't mean they ain't BPA at the draft. If GM's and director of scouting would think that way of not taking any risks...than they just don't deserve the job! I just think it's part of the job. Just look at the Kings at the 2005 draft. Kopitar was a BIG guess because of lack of scouting reports on him and look what that risk brought to them.

History isn't everything, but you have to learn from it or you will repeat your mistakes.

Kopitar actually dropped a little at the 2005 draft, he was rated as high as #6 overall by independent scouting services that year. It was indeed an astute pick by the Kings to take the risk on him, but for every Kopitar that makes it, there are many risky picks (Niinamaki, Jessiman, etc.) that don't.

 

[nanzenkills]

There is a great post by Avs71 (or Avs19 I forgot which one ) you should look for it basically shows that Jones plays a way tougher position. He basically said that Jones can't go out and create offense by himself he has to wait for the puck to come to him both offensively and defensively. He has to wait for the pass when shooting, he has to wait for the puck to come to him for a breakout and everything in between while MacKinnon goes out gets the puck and creates everything by himself. It shows that defensemen is a way harder position and the numbers Jones has put up for defensemen in those "waiting games" shows he is one hell of a player. It also shows that he creates offense as a defensemen which is really hard to do and shows his talent in skating, hands, and vision. I also think Jones passing is by far one of the best I have seen and his passing as a defensemen is much better than Mackinnon's passing as a forward.

I credit MacKinnon for taking advantage of the scenarios he was put in. Even though the Ivan Hlinka tournament is complete crap to me he got a hat trick in the finals and got a hattrick in the final game of the Memorial Cup too boot. But I do see some biased in your post (MacKinnon pumpin', downgrading Jones) because MacKinnon was complete crap in the WJC, which means the most out the ones we listed. I know the MacKinnon faction will blame the Coach Spott for that, but it still brings me to the next point that Nathan and Drouin were both on the same level and Jonathan completely outplayed MacKinnon. I also disagree in the saying tnhat Jones wasn't great, he was slow at the start of the tourney true, but he progressively got better as it went along and he played freakin fantastic against Canada and solid against Sweden.

Then in the Memorial Cup Jones looked tired and passive, definitely looked anything and every besides solid. But he still came away with 4 points in 5 games and +6 with Carruth in net as well. When Winterhawks needed a huge goal you can say that both of Jones goals were huge in the individual games. Carruth crapped the bed, the hallway, and the toilet in their first meeting which Portland would've won if he wasn't in net and Seth's second goal was huge in the comeback that ultimately fell short. Saying MacKinnon has better game breaking talent over Jones is a joke to me, I think both of them and even Drouin have it IMO.

I don't disagree with anything that you are saying, but as the years have gone by, I've noticed that some players raise their level of play more than others in the biggest games, and from what I've seen of Mac, I think he is the most likely from this draft to be one of those guys on the Toews and Bergeron level in terms of doing that.

 

[R S]

I'm almost to the point where I want the Avs and Cats to flip picks so they can have MacKinnon and we can have Jones. That gets rid of all this crap about 1st overall Dmen flopping, plus we pick up an asset, even a very minor one.

Maybe:

1st overall for 2nd overall and Quinton Howden

 

[S E P H]

I'm almost to the point where I want the Avs and Cats to flip picks so they can have MacKinnon and we can have Jones. That gets rid of all this crap about 1st overall Dmen flopping, plus we pick up an asset, even a very minor one.

Maybe:

1st overall for 2nd overall and Quinton Howden

Not at all, it will be great for the game of hockey in general breaking history and taking a Black player 1st overall.

 

[IndustryLeech]

Something I haven't seen mentioned is how much MacKinnon and Drouin have probably each benefited from being linemates. Sure, they are both elite players at the level they are at, but would their numbers look as good playing on teams with more average linemates? I think it's fair to say their stock has been boosted by the good fortune of having played with each other.

 

[henchman21]

Something I haven't seen mentioned is how much MacKinnon and Drouin have probably each benefited from being linemates. Sure, they are both elite players at the level they are at, but would their numbers look as good playing on teams with more average linemates? I think it's fair to say their stock has been boosted by the good fortune of having played with each other.

I don't buy into that much. You evaluate players on their skills, not stats.

 

[IndustryLeech]

I don't buy into that much. You evaluate players on their skills, not stats.

A linemate you have great chemistry with can make your skill set look better than it would playing with a scrub though, right?

 

[PAZ]

I'm almost to the point where I want the Avs and Cats to flip picks so they can have MacKinnon and we can have Jones. That gets rid of all this crap about 1st overall Dmen flopping, plus we pick up an asset, even a very minor one.

Maybe:

1st overall for 2nd overall and Quinton Howden

I'm curious what you think if by chance we actually do make a trade with Buffalo for a package containing #8 + 16, who would you pick there?

 

[R S]

I'm curious what you think if by chance we actually do make a trade with Buffalo for a package containing #8 + 16, who would you pick there?

A guy like Hunter Shinkaruk would be a good fit. A chance Lindholm is still there, too. Those would be two guys I wouldn't be opposed to.

 

[nanzenkills]

I'm curious what you think if by chance we actually do make a trade with Buffalo for a package containing #8 + 16, who would you pick there?

It depends on who is available, but I think I would take Lindholm at 8. Maybe Morrissey at 16.

I'm not a fan of drafting on positional need, and there aren't really any defensemen other than Jones that I'd take in the top 10 this year.

 

[LazRNN]

Why are you so positive that Jones will be "another EJ" and that MacKinnon will be a "Toews or Nik Backstrom"?

This is going to go around and around endlessly without anything like a definitive or logical answer. It basically boils down to: Jones is a defenseman and MacKinnon is a forward. That's why MacKinnon is the best player available and he should be the pick. Ironically the argument is incompatible with a BPA argument, unless they want to go ahead and argue that forwards are superior to defensemen, period. If a white hot "Sidney Crosby of defensemen" prospect or "next Bobby Orr" was sitting there at the top of the draft boards, none of these arguments would be any different. The player would still be a potential bust because he plays defense and no other reason. None of these arguments are any more nuanced than that.