Prospect Info: The 2013 NHL Entry Draft [Part VI] From Here To Eternity: 18 Days To The NHL Draft

[RockLobster]

Previous Thread

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1421383

Interesting Developments

-Roy, Sakic and Co. have publicly stated that they will "Study the possibility of moving out of the #1 Overall"

-Roy will be the one talking trades w/ other GM's, leaving many wonder what Greg Sherman will actually do

-Rumors abounded today from a Calgary DJ that "Jones to Colorado is a 'Done Deal'", we'll see

-YES, Renegade Stylings STILL believes that Seth Jones is the pick for Colorado *He does get this question a lot, even from me, so I expect that if his opinion changes that he'd let us know*

-Stevie Y says that he's not trading up to #1

Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance 1h
Yzerman said he doesn't expect to move up from No. 3. Said he doesn't have ammunition to pry No. 1 pick from Avs.

Interesting Articles

"Why The Avs Will Take Seth Jones"

http://www.aspechockey.com/article2.php

"Why The Avs Will Take Nathan MacKinnon"

http://www.aspechockey.com/article1.php

Click to read more...

 

[henchman21]

Replying to a post in the last thread.

Now, I'm not a scout, but I just want to hear why most of us are still pushing for Jones. I have no horse in this race, but through the twittersphere and scouting websites, I get the sense that MacKinnon has high upside and is better right now.

Other than need, why would Jones be our pick then?

Jones probably has a higher ceiling in comparison to MacKinnon, but MacKinnon has less risk associated with him.

Going by talent and ceiling, Jones could be a top 5 defensemen in this league for 10-15 years and win a couple Norris trophies. A lot of scouts are calling him the best defensive prospect since Pronger, and even a few are throwing around the 'generational' tag. I fall a step below that and think that he will be an elite #1D for 10-15 years.

MacKinnon will be a hell of a player and should reach his ceiling which is a 75-85p #1C. A top 10-15 center in the league (a notch below Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, etc and more in line with Kopitar, Giroux, Toews level).

Personally I would rather have a Norris caliber defensemen than a very good #1C.

 

[CalderKing21]

i'm curious to see who the top 2 picks are for the Avs in this draft. i believe both could end up on the NHL roster.

 

[Foppa Frossa]

We can't pick MacKinnon - Hunwick already has his number 22.

 

[AvsWraith]

Found it interesting that in the last 40 years, only one franchise defensemen has been taken 1st overall, and that was Denis Potvin in 1973. I guess that shows just how hard it is to predict a franchise defensemen.

 

[Avs For Life]

Found it interesting that in the last 40 years, only one franchise defensemen has been taken 1st overall, and that was Denis Potvin in 1973. I guess that shows just how hard it is to predict a franchise defensemen.

This is exactly what makes me nervous.

I like both as players...but that little tidbit keeps coming up. Highly drafted dmen are not always what they seem.

BAH Idk who we should take

 

[CalderKing21]

Found it interesting that in the last 40 years, only one franchise defensemen has been taken 1st overall, and that was Denis Potvin in 1973. I guess that shows just how hard it is to predict a franchise defensemen.

that will change soon. people put too much stock in certain things when they speak of franchise types.
we've seen guys taken 2,3,4 & 5 do very well more recently and scouting has gotten a lot better as of late.
scorers will always have a slight edge when it comes to choosing at #1 because the fans tend to gravitate more to players who score a ton of points instead of the guys who keep others from scoring.

it's like the QB vs the OL. the fans will rally behind the dude who puts points on the board before the guy who keeps the QB from getting hurt.

 

[henchman21]

Found it interesting that in the last 40 years, only one franchise defensemen has been taken 1st overall, and that was Denis Potvin in 1973. I guess that shows just how hard it is to predict a franchise defensemen.

What I find more interesting is since 1966 there are only 6 Hall of Famers drafted #1. Or another way of looking at it (more positive), you have a 12% chance of selecting a Hall of Famer with a #1 pick.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Replying to a post in the last thread.



Jones probably has a higher ceiling in comparison to MacKinnon, but MacKinnon has less risk associated with him.

Going by talent and ceiling, Jones could be a top 5 defensemen in this league for 10-15 years and win a couple Norris trophies. A lot of scouts are calling him the best defensive prospect since Pronger, and even a few are throwing around the 'generational' tag. I fall a step below that and think that he will be an elite #1D for 10-15 years.

MacKinnon will be a hell of a player and should reach his ceiling which is a 75-85p #1C. A top 10-15 center in the league (a notch below Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, etc and more in line with Kopitar, Giroux, Toews level).

Personally I would rather have a Norris caliber defensemen than a very good #1C.

Also, I strongly believe that Jones demonstrates more of the other qualities that the Avs look for in players, like character, maturity, discipline, professionalism, etc

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Replying to a post in the last thread.



Jones probably has a higher ceiling in comparison to MacKinnon, but MacKinnon has less risk associated with him.

Going by talent and ceiling, Jones could be a top 5 defensemen in this league for 10-15 years and win a couple Norris trophies. A lot of scouts are calling him the best defensive prospect since Pronger, and even a few are throwing around the 'generational' tag. I fall a step below that and think that he will be an elite #1D for 10-15 years.

MacKinnon will be a hell of a player and should reach his ceiling which is a 75-85p #1C. A top 10-15 center in the league (a notch below Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, etc and more in line with Kopitar, Giroux, Toews level).

Personally I would rather have a Norris caliber defensemen than a very good #1C.

Well why didn't you say that before. DRAFT HIM NOWW!!!

Hedman, Larsson and EJ were all considered the "the best defensive prospect since pronger" even the generational tag was thrust upon them. People are too loose with that word really there only 4 generational talents in this league one of them is a oldie that's on his last legs and not one of them is a defender.

 

[Freudian]

Found it interesting that in the last 40 years, only one franchise defensemen has been taken 1st overall, and that was Denis Potvin in 1973. I guess that shows just how hard it is to predict a franchise defensemen.

Scouting and player development has come a long way since. I'd argue that the situation today is much different than the 90s too. Young defenders are much better schooled and more developed than they have ever been and teams are better at identifying good defenders.

Second, the number of franchise defenders is much smaller than the number of franchise forwards. Depending on your definition there are perhaps 5-10 franchise defenders in the league right now and up to 20-30 franchise forwards.

No doubt it's harder to project how defensemen will turn out since they still have to learn a lot of things at the NHL level compared to what a forward will learn, but I feel the risk of picking Jones is being wildly exaggerated.

 

[CalderKing21]

This is exactly what makes me nervous.

I like both as players...but that little tidbit keeps coming up. Highly drafted dmen are not always what they seem.

BAH Idk who we should take

look at the last 4 in the playoffs left standing. they all have really good D men and size. all 4 are the most recent stanley cup champs.
we want to eventually be where those 4 are now.
the game is changing. you have such dynamic scorers and you have to have someone to stop them.

i want the best player, the position doesn't matter.
D men take longer to develop but when they reach their potential their impact is greater.

 

[chet1926]

Found it interesting that in the last 40 years, only one franchise defensemen has been taken 1st overall, and that was Denis Potvin in 1973. I guess that shows just how hard it is to predict a franchise defensemen.

This is precisely what scares me away from Jones. History shows its almost impossible to predict a defenseman. Especially ones tabbed for glory. There is a chance Jones lives up to the billing, but the odds are stacked against him.

MacKinnon is the much safer pick, and needs to be the pick as we can't afford to have a "miss" in this position.

 

[AvsWraith]

What I find more interesting is since 1966 there are only 6 Hall of Famers drafted #1. Or another way of looking at it (more positive), you have a 12% chance of selecting a Hall of Famer with a #1 pick.

Wow, that is really interesting. I'm starting to get nervous about picking anyone in this draft, since there will never be a guarantee. I'm still leaning towards MacKinnon because I think he is a safer pick. However, you never know. Watch Barkov or Nichushkin become the best player out of the draft.

 

[henchman21]

IMO the player with the highest overall ceiling is Drouin then it goes:

Nichushkin
Jones
MacKinnon
Mantha

 

[henchman21]

Well why didn't you say that before. DRAFT HIM NOWW!!!

Hedman, Larsson and EJ were all considered the "the best defensive prospect since pronger" even the generational tag was thrust upon them. People are too loose with that word really there only 4 generational talents in this league one of them is a oldie that's on his last legs and not one of them is a defender.

If you read that I don't claim that he is generational, just saying a lot of scouts use that word to describe him. I will agree that it is thrown around too much.

Out of Hedman, Larsson, and EJ at the same spots in their development, I would say Jones has a lot less holes in his game and has better physical tools than all but one (EJ). Jones also thinks the game the best out of the 4.

On a side note, I think that Hedman breaks out this next season and really establishes himself as a top 10 defensemen in the NHL. He showed signs of it last year and is finally getting used to his frame.

 

[CalderKing21]

This is precisely what scares me away from Jones. History shows its almost impossible to predict a defenseman. Especially ones tabbed for glory. There is a chance Jones lives up to the billing, but the odds are stacked against him.

MacKinnon is the much safer pick, and needs to be the pick as we can't afford to have a "miss" in this position.

a lot of the better young defenders in NHL right now that we all drool over and want to trade for are guys who were top 2-10 picks.
not sure why so many worry so much.

this isn't the old NHL way of drafting. goalies used to go top 10 routinely and now you barely see them crack the top 20.
the draft changes with the NHL. you just had D men be 8 of the top 10 picks last season and still people bellyache about D men being a risk.

 

[UpsideHockey]

A couple of in-depth profiles on the obvious potential new Avs:

Nathan (Nate) MacKinnon - find out why he's associated with the acronym "DEADLY"

Our Western Conference "Dub" profiler Andy Eide alse has complete his profile on Popeye's son:

Seth Jones

Read both and let us know who you'd take 1st - The Seth-Nate Debate.
***
Just to throw a wrench into things, would the Avs consider the supremely talented:
Jonathan Drouin – The Next Ones NHL 2013 Draft Prospect Profile
- Drouin: Maestro of the Halifax Mooseheads Orchestra

Coming soon to a NHL arena near you, conducting an ice symphony to the tune of blades on ice, composite sticks on rubber, rubber off iron and goal horns erupting in excitement – Jonathan Drouin.

Link
___
*2013 NHL Draft Prospect Index
**2013 NHL Draft Guide: The Next Ones

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

IMO the player with the highest overall ceiling is Drouin then it goes:

Nichushkin
Jones
MacKinnon
Mantha

Now you're talking.

If you read that I don't claim that he is generational, just saying a lot of scouts use that word to describe him. I will agree that it is thrown around too much.

Out of Hedman, Larsson, and EJ at the same spots in their development, I would say Jones has a lot less holes in his game and has better physical tools than all but one (EJ). Jones also thinks the game the best out of the 4.

On a side note, I think that Hedman breaks out this next season and really establishes himself as a top 10 defensemen in the NHL. He showed signs of it last year and is finally getting used to his frame.

I didn't mean to imply that you say it, just a lot of the people in the media and here tend to throw that word out there.

I agree Jones thinks the game well offensively, defensively not so much. I rate Hedman and Larsson both ahead of him in that area.

Yeah, I too think Hedman is going to break out. He was fantastic for tampa last year.

 

[Skip2myBordyloo]

We can't pick MacKinnon - Hunwick already has his number 22.

the only reason we traded o'bryne is because we needed to free up that #3 so jones could take it.

 

[chet1926]

a lot of the better young defenders in NHL right now that we all drool over and want to trade for are guys who were top 2-10 picks.
not sure why so many worry so much.

this isn't the old NHL way of drafting. goalies used to go top 10 routinely and now you barely see them crack the top 20.
the draft changes with the NHL. you just had D men be 8 of the top 10 picks last season and still people bellyache about D men being a risk.

And time will tell how many actually pan out to be worthy of that high a pick. I venture to guess maybe 2 become first pairing guys, the rest will be middle pairing or worse guys, history will back me up on these guesses.

History will also back me up that forwards picked in the top 10 have a much higher success rate than defenders picked in the top ten.

Seth Jones has a much higher fail chance than either MacKinnon or Drouin based off history. You can't argue numbers. Statistically speaking if the Avs want to play it safe they should go with a forward. If they want to roll the dice go with the defender. Its really their decision and how ballsy they want to be.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

All the nonsense about high-drafted D-men aside, Jones' potential ceiling is entirely worth the risk of taking him 1st overall.

 

[CalderKing21]

And time will tell how many actually pan out to be worthy of that high a pick. I venture to guess maybe 2 become first pairing guys, the rest will be middle pairing or worse guys, history will back me up on these guesses.

History will also back me up that forwards picked in the top 10 have a much higher success rate than defenders picked in the top ten.

Seth Jones has a much higher fail chance than either MacKinnon or Drouin based off history. You can't argue numbers. Statistically speaking if the Avs want to play it safe they should go with a forward. If they want to roll the dice go with the defender. Its really their decision and how ballsy they want to be.

of course history will back you up. forwards go in the top 10 more often than D men do until the more recent of drafting.
it's a smaller sample size so if one fails it looms large.
if a forward scores 60-70 pts that's a success even if he doesn't play D worth a crap.
if a D man plays really good D but can't score 30+ pts a season he's considered a disappointment.

 

[CobraAcesS]

And time will tell how many actually pan out to be worthy of that high a pick. I venture to guess maybe 2 become first pairing guys, the rest will be middle pairing or worse guys, history will back me up on these guesses.

History will also back me up that forwards picked in the top 10 have a much higher success rate than defenders picked in the top ten.

Seth Jones has a much higher fail chance than either MacKinnon or Drouin based off history. You can't argue numbers. Statistically speaking if the Avs want to play it safe they should go with a forward. If they want to roll the dice go with the defender. Its really their decision and how ballsy they want to be.

This completely discounts scouting evolution... You don't see nearly as many late round players of an sort come out of the draft and become stars either.

The trend 'seems' to be going in the right direction when it comes to scouts being able to project defenders better. Even in the last three years or so...

That will happen when you have case studies like Chara and Weber who were taken later. Hockey IQ is becoming very important when paired with physical skill as well. Where I feel like physical skill was more the primary in the past.

Which would explain EJ's 1st over all selection, EJ simply does not have the same hockey IQ that Seth Jones seems to posses. While Jones also seems to posses the same type of physical gifts as EJ.

Could you imagine EJ, but smarter offensively and with a generally better hockey IQ? He absolutely would be a clear cut #1 do everything defender.

I think EJ is a #2/#3 with a bit of upside still. I do think EJ could produce more offensively if used the right way. He shouldn't be the one QB-ing the power-play. However if he was used as more of a weapon and fed one-timers to bomb on net he'd score more. Which is exactly how Sacco used him in the Worlds. (Which ******* infuriates me, how many one-timers did EJ get fed the last couple years that you can remember?)

EJ can make a very good first pass, handle the puck well, and play physical. He just does not make strong decisions with the puck in the offensive end, and he isn't good at getting his shot through by himself.

All of the things EJ is deficient at, are considered strengths in Jones. Mack is exciting, but I want Jones no question about it.

(EJ needs a partner who 'thinks' the game well, which is why I'd love to find a way to pry Campbell out of Florida in order for them to take Mackinnon at #1. It would also lessen the pressure on S. Jones as well if we could take him at #2. But, a veteran puck mover next to EJ would be amazing. Look what Campbell did with Garrison, all that dude had to do was bomb one-timers on net and be good defensively. It's pretty much an amazing match IMO...)

 

[avsfan9]

Lets not kid ourselves, our defense was one of the worst in the league last year. We need a #1 d man and it is seth jones. We are never going to get another chance to get this good of a defenseman ever again so we should take him while we have the chance.