Value of: Taking Bobby Ryan’s Contract

[50 in 07]

So the pitch is that this is an opportunity for Ottawa to relieve itself of Ryan's contract, and you won't have the bad optics of pretty much giving up a lot to do it. So the deal would be Ryan and Karlsson for a top four young controllable defenseman, an A-prospect and a first round pick not lottery protected. Without Ryan involved, it's two A-prospects instead of one.

Ottawa isn't trading Ryan and Karlsson in the same deal. Irrespective of how it works for NJ it doesn't make sense for Ottawa. If Karlsson is moved, they'll be alleviating themselves financially in a major way so Ryan's contract becomes much less of an issue. They'll want the maximum possible return; including Ryan is counterproductive.

 

[Balthazar]

their gm is way too smart for that. He wasn't even dumb enough to take him free in the expansion draft

Picks and prospects would come from Ottawa, not from Vegas. No one would take Ryan for free.

 

[AZviaNJ]

The deal is absolutely brutal, not only is the Cap hit for $7.25M for 4.5 years, the salary + bonuses is the same. So the acquiring team will be paying for this contract at the same rate as the cap hit.

It's even worse for the Sens since they're nearly maxed at the Cap and Ryan has a limited 10 team NMC. So retention is not really the answer, the acquiring team is rich enough to absorb nearly the entire deal and needs to reach the cap floor. They're literally throwing money away just for futures.

Not sure if any team is willing to accept such a brutal contract.

Ryan (4.5 years @ $7.25M)
2020 - 1st (Lottery Protected)
White/Brown

For

Cap Dump (2.5 years @ $4M)

Ryan, 2019 1st and Brown/White for Goligoski?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Sharks could probably take on Ryan and Karlsson if the Sens take back someone like Boedker and Martin as a starting point for a deal.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Toronto could take on his contract if he gets injured enough to spend the rest of his contract on LTIR. Ala the Horton situation

 

[mouser]

I would think Ryan could be moved if the Sens retained enough to get his AAV down to about $5m-5.5m. Would Melnyk do that though?

 

[DesertPenguin]

Pens are rumored to be talking to Ottawa, they wouldn't mind adding a top 6 LW, they have 2 centers which can put it on a tee for Ryan, and they have a 4M cap dump in Hagelin that lasts this season and next.

Pens wouldn't do this for straight charity but there are enough things lining up that it might be in the works. What would a deal look like?

Edit: I just ran this through CapFriendly, and it would take some extreme creativity to be cap compliant this year. Once we get to 2018-2019 and the cap goes up to 80ish M, maybe, but it's gonna be tough.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Ottawa isn't trading Ryan and Karlsson in the same deal. Irrespective of how it works for NJ it doesn't make sense for Ottawa. If Karlsson is moved, they'll be alleviating themselves financially in a major way so Ryan's contract becomes much less of an issue. They'll want the maximum possible return; including Ryan is counterproductive.

Of course they can live with Ryan's contract, especially with Karlsson out of the picture. They can obviously afford it now with Karlsson still on the team. But that's not the point. While maybe he can turn it around, it really looks like you're talking about paying a 30 year old forward almost $8 million a year to score 15 goals a season for the next 4 1/2 years. That's a Dany Heatley-like decline, and Heatley at least was a better player than Ryan was in his prime. If you're a team that seems to be leaning towards a rebuild (which is what it's going to be if Karlsson's traded) and didn't want to pay Kyle Turris, it's a pretty safe assumption that the team would want to get rid of Ryan at all costs.

And you can't dump Ryan on a team like Arizona since he has a NTC, and in any event, Arizona will probably make you give them something to take him.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

I would think Ryan could be moved if the Sens retained enough to get his AAV down to about $5m-5.5m. Would Melnyk do that though?

If ownership says they're willing to go all in for a Cup run this year, the Devils could probably afford to keep all of Ryan's salary if it gives them two playoffs runs with Karlsson. It could prove to be a little dicey if they wanted to take a shot at extending Karlsson, but you could always buy out Ryan by then. It wouldn't be pretty, but it would probably do the trick.

 

[Pistol Pete]

The deal is absolutely brutal, not only is the Cap hit for $7.25M for 4.5 years, the salary + bonuses is the same. So the acquiring team will be paying for this contract at the same rate as the cap hit.

It's even worse for the Sens since they're nearly maxed at the Cap and Ryan has a limited 10 team NMC. So retention is not really the answer, the acquiring team is rich enough to absorb nearly the entire deal and needs to reach the cap floor. They're literally throwing money away just for futures.

Not sure if any team is willing to accept such a brutal contract.

Ryan (4.5 years @ $7.25M)
2020 - 1st (Lottery Protected)
White/Brown

For

Cap Dump (2.5 years @ $4M)

Doug Wilson and the Sharks will do this. Boedker is your cap dump for 2.5 years at $4M.

 

[Neiler]

Duchane sucks,

I told you guys that waaaaay before the trade, that any team getting him was going to be really sorry

And what do you know?

He's not a center for starters, he has ZERO clue as to how to play that position

What even is this post?

 

[50 in 07]

Of course they can live with Ryan's contract, especially with Karlsson out of the picture. They can obviously afford it now with Karlsson still on the team. But that's not the point. While maybe he can turn it around, it really looks like you're talking about paying a 30 year old forward almost $8 million a year to score 15 goals a season for the next 4 1/2 years. That's a Dany Heatley-like decline, and Heatley at least was a better player than Ryan was in his prime. If you're a team that seems to be leaning towards a rebuild (which is what it's going to be if Karlsson's traded) and didn't want to pay Kyle Turris, it's a pretty safe assumption that the team would want to get rid of Ryan at all costs.

A rebuilding team (hypothetically Ottawa if Karlsson says he isn't re-signing) isn't trading away multiple young assets to get rid of Ryan. That is literally counterproductive. Brown, White, Chabot, first rounders, etc are the guys they'd be looking to build around not trade away. This is magnified because they're losing their 1st in 2018 or 2019 to the Avs.

Sure, they'd be happier if his contract wasn't so ridiculous but the point is Ryan, while overpaid, is still a useful player. He'd be a top 6 forward on nearly all teams in the league. Even if his play falls off a cliff, he can be helpful to insulate the young guys coming up or whatever may be. You need guys like that during a rebuild.

In like 3-4 years, maybe Ottawa has some studs who are coming off ELCs and they need the cap space. In that situation they may explore dumping Ryan, and it would be an expiring contract or close to it so a lot easier and more palatable for other teams. But now? It's not happening, partly because Ottawa doesn't need to and partly because there's so much term left.

 

[solidprospect]

Duchane sucks,

I told you guys that waaaaay before the trade, that any team getting him was going to be really sorry

And what do you know?

He's not a center for starters, he has ZERO clue as to how to play that position

I didn't like Duchene before the trade either but thats the situation we're in.

 

[tictactoe]

Take back 3.25 and Flyers would probably have interest.

 

[Riptide]

The deal is absolutely brutal, not only is the Cap hit for $7.25M for 4.5 years, the salary + bonuses is the same. So the acquiring team will be paying for this contract at the same rate as the cap hit.

It's even worse for the Sens since they're nearly maxed at the Cap and Ryan has a limited 10 team NMC. So retention is not really the answer, the acquiring team is rich enough to absorb nearly the entire deal and needs to reach the cap floor. They're literally throwing money away just for futures.

Not sure if any team is willing to accept such a brutal contract.

Ryan (4.5 years @ $7.25M)
2020 - 1st (Lottery Protected)
White/Brown

For

Cap Dump (2.5 years @ $4M)

It wouldn't be anything close to being that bad. Just retention alone would do it. Get him down to the 5m range and suddenly you've opened up a lot of doors with other teams. 5.25m or so for someone like him who can put up 55 or so points*? That would likely hold enough interest that they could move him for a lesser player, and thus over the next couple of years, get mostly out of that contract (minus the retention).

* He scored or was on pace for 55+ points in each of his first three seasons in Ottawa. It's only since Boucher came to town that his stats have been brutal, and even then his POs last year were very good.

 

[Riptide]

I think the only way Ryan is moved would be if salary was retained and I doubt Melnyk would go for that.

Still cheaper to retain 20% of his contract (or whatever) then to pay him 100% of it - even if they have to take back salary of sorts.

 

[Riptide]

Pens are rumored to be talking to Ottawa, they wouldn't mind adding a top 6 LW, they have 2 centers which can put it on a tee for Ryan, and they have a 4M cap dump in Hagelin that lasts this season and next.

Pens wouldn't do this for straight charity but there are enough things lining up that it might be in the works. What would a deal look like?

Edit: I just ran this through CapFriendly, and it would take some extreme creativity to be cap compliant this year. Once we get to 2018-2019 and the cap goes up to 80ish M, maybe, but it's gonna be tough.

If his cap hit isn't in the 5m range, then there's no reason for Pittsburgh to have much interest in him - even though I would have loved to have gotten him 4 years ago. The player today just isn't worth much more than 5/5.5m to a cap tight team. And even if the cap goes to 80m, we will have our own RFA/UFA's to deal with...

 

[Korpse]

I'd rather keep Ryan for now, he is still a good hockey player despite what many think. Overpaid, yes but a good hockey player nonetheless. Personally I prefer him to Mike Hoffman when healthy.

 

[garyturner3]

He was in a perfect place in Anaheim; He needs a strong centre to haul the puck into the zone and put it on a tee.

He's not a bad player - he's reasonably skilled - he's just miscast in his role as the principle focus during puck movement.

I don't necessarily agree with that point of view. People keep saying he was great in Anaheim because he got to play with great players and he doesn't have that luxury in Ottawa. But in reality 2012 Bobby Ryan didn't need great players to produce; he was a star player himself. He was 25 then and in his prime. He's 30 now and the reality is he's just regressed significantly in the last 5 years which is the reason he's no longer that effective IMO. I was a huge Ryan fan in Anaheim and he's a shadow of that player now.

 

[wokwithme]

AVs will take him to finish robbing their team.

There is nothing left to rob.

Also that contract is not movable. the reason big contracts can be traded to bottom teams is because the contracts are front loaded. this contract never gets attractive in any way shape or form.

 

[Revelation]

Louis Eriksson for Bobby Ryan

Both guys and deals suck in different ways but ˆ could see Bobby getting back on track w/ the Sedins, and Louis's style is total Boucher

I could see this being one of the greatest win win deals ever, if they both revitalize their careers and become almost worth their money.

Sedin-Sedin-Ryan : Dzingel-Pageau-Eriksson

 

[captainpaxil]

Dale Weiss and Andrew McDonald for Ryan. Ottowa gets cap flexibility while Philly g w ts the hometown kid

 

[danielpalfredsson]

He was in a perfect place in Anaheim; He needs a strong centre to haul the puck into the zone and put it on a tee.

He's not a bad player - he's reasonably skilled - he's just miscast in his role as the principle focus during puck movement.

He's had too many finger injuries and as a result can't shoot anymore, that's a core problem with his game. He's just not dangerous from far out, and is often forced to be a pass first type guy when an opportunity arises. He scored a one timer goal a few games back and it was like seeing a ghost. It caught me off guard.

If he could still shoot, he'd be pretty dangerous. He scores in close and otherwise is more of a playmaker nowadays.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I don't necessarily agree with that point of view. People keep saying he was great in Anaheim because he got to play with great players and he doesn't have that luxury in Ottawa. But in reality 2012 Bobby Ryan didn't need great players to produce; he was a star player himself. He was 25 then and in his prime. He's 30 now and the reality is he's just regressed significantly in the last 5 years which is the reason he's no longer that effective IMO. I was a huge Ryan fan in Anaheim and he's a shadow of that player now.

Even in his first season in Ottawa, he was looking like a legit superstar prior to getting hurt and eventually shut down. I think the first 40 or 50 games, he scored at a 30 goal/70 point type pace that was in line with his previous production in ANA. I believe he had a sports hernia that season, and otherwise he just keeps breaking his fingers which has rendered his shot nearly ineffective from far out. He also has had conditioning issues in the past on top of all of that.

Ryan's success in ANA wasn't because of who he was playing with, it probably helped, but you hit the nail on the head, he has regressed since coming to Ottawa.

I could see this being one of the greatest win win deals ever, if they both revitalize their careers and become almost worth their money.

Sedin-Sedin-Ryan : Dzingel-Pageau-Eriksson

Eriksson has a full NTC until July 2020 so that probably isn't happening. I think Ryan is better right now though and when he is on is probably the Senators 3rd best offensive forward behind Stone and Duchene.

 

[93gilmour93]

Honestly the best chance ottawa would have to move him would be the same kind of deal that brought Phaneuf to ottawa. If the sens are able to find a team that could unload some bad contracts with a couple years left on it for ryan maybe.