GDT: Stranger Things - Devils vs. Kings - 7:00PM MSG+

[Call Me Al]

maybe vatanen is better now

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

You don't really get credit for facing tough competition when you consistently get ripped when facing said competition. I understand that they are getting tougher minutes and that skews the possession numbers, but anyone could get hammered with shots and create zero offense.

 

[MadDevil]

The thing with that graph though is that neither Greene or Santini are very good offensively, so they're probably more likely to barely break even or end up with a negative shot differential than a player like Severson or Butcher, who are good at generating offense.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Martin St. Louis?

Yvon Cournoyer for those first few bold strides when he gets open ice after a turnover, and then the cutback into the slot, to find even more open ice, once he gets everyone turned around to keep up with him.

I am not saying he's Cournoyer. But that's who flashes into my mind every time I see Bratt suddenly seize the initiative, cut back into space, and make everyone else on the ice react to him.

 

[devilsblood]

You don't really get credit for facing tough competition when you consistently get ripped when facing said competition. I understand that they are getting tougher minutes and that skews the possession numbers, but anyone could get hammered with shots and create zero offense.

Still you can't compare possession #'s on face value if the competition level is dramatically different.

 

[Azathoth]

Not to absolve Greene-Santini, but if memory serves me, they were also frequently paired with Wood-Zacha-Stafford (at least when I noticed them hemmed in the d-zone). The forwards did finish slightly positive based on the chart but they did give up a lot of shots and its not like Wood and Stafford are defensive stalwarts out there.

 

[BenedictGomez]

neither Greene or Santini are very good offensively, so they're probably more likely to barely break even or end up with a negative shot differential than a player like Severson or Butcher, who are good at generating offense.

I disagree Severson is much better than Santini at generating offense. I think Santini is more disciplined in terms of shot selection.

Based on an 82 game slate, Severson is pacing for 25 points and Santini is pacing for 23 points. That is not a material difference.

Taking a look at SPG, Severson is at 1.86 versus Santini's 1.60. Again, not a material difference, especially when you factor in the aforementioned shot discipline, which I think is one of the weaker parts of Severson's game.

 

[devilsblood]

Not to absolve Greene-Santini, but if memory serves me, they were also frequently paired with Wood-Zacha-Stafford (at least when I noticed them hemmed in the d-zone). The forwards did finish slightly positive based on the chart but they did give up a lot of shots and its not like Wood and Stafford are defensive stalwarts out there.

Greene played the most behind the Gibbons Zajac Coleman line, about 5.5 minutes, with whom he had excellent #'s. Played 5 minutes with Wood(only 3:30 with Stafford), had bad #'s.

About 4 mins with Hall, Nico and Bratt, and the #'s were abysmal.

Stat trick doesn't break down the opposition relative to linemates.

 

[devilsblood]

I disagree Severson is much better than Santini at generating offense. I think Santini is more disciplined in terms of shot selection.

Based on an 82 game slate, Severson is pacing for 25 points and Santini is pacing for 23 points. That is not a material difference.

Taking a look at SPG, Severson is at 1.86 versus Santini's 1.60. Again, not a material difference, especially when you factor in the aforementioned shot discipline, which I think is one of the weaker parts of Severson's game.

Individual #'s don't show a big difference, but the on ice #'s are drastically in sev's favor. Severson is the best d-man on the team(outside of Prout) in on-ice shots for per 60, while Santini is the worst d-man(outside of Vatanen and his 6 games).

Of coarse zone starts, and quality of comp need to be factored. But still, I think it's pretty clear Sev's brings more offensively then Santini.

 

[Blender]

Individual #'s don't show a big difference, but the on ice #'s are drastically in sev's favor. Severson is the best d-man on the team(outside of Prout) in on-ice shots for per 60, while Santini is the worst d-man(outside of Vatanen and his 6 games).

Of coarse zone starts, and quality of comp need to be factored. But still, I think it's pretty clear Sev's brings more offensively then Santini.

...and no one has ever disputed this.

 

[devilsblood]

...and no one has ever disputed this.

Which part?

 

[Its a Trap]

I disagree Severson is much better than Santini at generating offense. I think Santini is more disciplined in terms of shot selection.

Based on an 82 game slate, Severson is pacing for 25 points and Santini is pacing for 23 points. That is not a material difference.

Taking a look at SPG, Severson is at 1.86 versus Santini's 1.60. Again, not a material difference, especially when you factor in the aforementioned shot discipline, which I think is one of the weaker parts of Severson's game.

Honestly, if anything, that's a red flag for Severson considering how he's being used and the PP time he gets.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Individual #'s don't show a big difference, but the on ice #'s are drastically in sev's favor. Severson is the best d-man on the team(outside of Prout) in on-ice shots for per 60, while Santini is the worst d-man(outside of Vatanen and his 6 games).

Of coarse zone starts, and quality of comp need to be factored. But still, I think it's pretty clear Sev's brings more offensively then Santini.

This is another area where Corsi can be dopey, and Steve Santini is my favorite current poster child for this.

Santini's D.Z.S. are pushing 80%, whereas only a little more than 40% of Severson's starts are defensive!

So clearly, Santini has coaches' confidence in his defensive abilities.

More obviously though, if "generating offense" is not actually "generating any goals", then I'd suggest people take a look at what usefulness your metrics are. For instance, I'd suggest that Severson's SOG, though rather numerous, are of a far lower-quality than your average NHL player. No statistic can capture this.

Moreover, even though Severson and Santini have near identical ATOI to the second, Severson plays over 2 minutes per game on the Powerplay, whereas Santini plays 3 minutes per game on the Penalty Kill. Obviously that should give a significant boost to Severson's expected points tally over Santini's............ but it's not.

 

[devilsblood]

Honestly, if anything, that's a red flag for Severson considering how he's being used and the PP time he gets.

A bit. Plays some pretty easy minutes, has very good possession #s, get's PP time, but does not put up points.

 

[Devils Dominion]

The season is contingent on Taylor's injury report today.

We cannot afford to lose him for an extended amount of time, just cannot.

 

[devilsblood]

This is another area where Corsi can be dopey, and Steve Santini is my favorite current poster child for this.

Santini's D.Z.S. are pushing 80%, whereas only a little more than 40% of Severson's starts are defensive!

So clearly, Santini has coaches' confidence in his defensive abilities.

More obviously though, if "generating offense" is not actually "generating any goals", then I'd suggest people take a look at what usefulness your metrics are. For instance, I'd suggest that Severson's SOG, though rather numerous, are of a far lower-quality than your average NHL player. No statistic can capture this.

Moreover, even though Severson and Santini have near identical ATOI to the second, Severson plays over 2 minutes per game on the Powerplay, whereas Santini plays 3 minutes per game on the Penalty Kill. Obviously that should give a significant boost to Severson's expected points tally over Santini's............ but it's not.

I was working with on ice shots on goal, not corsi. I'm also talking 5v5. Devils get way more shots on net when Severson is on the ice compared to Santini.

And yes coaches do like Santini in the defensive zone, much more then they do Sev's, but that is not the point you were making. We are talking offense, and coaches like sev's better then.

Now 30 games would we hope to see better offensive #'s from Sev's. Absolutely.

Edit: on ice 5v5 GF/60 for Sev's is 3.19. Santini is under 2. So Devils score at a much better rate with Severson.

 

[Its a Trap]

A bit. Plays some pretty easy minutes, has very good possession #s, get's PP time, but does not put up points.

There's a reason why nobody complains when Butcher screws up.

 

[BenedictGomez]

on ice 5v5 GF/60 for Sev's is 3.19. Santini is under 2. So Devils score at a much better rate with Severson.

This is another metric I'm not a huge fan of for various reasons, but in this case it's clearly impeded by the fact Santini is 80% DSZ whereas Severson is 40% D.Z.S.

Not many goals are scored from 175 feet away.

 

[Blender]

Which part?

That Severson clearly brings more offense than Santini.

 

[Blender]

So despite much tougher usage, Santini and and Severson defensively aren't much different. The big difference is Santini doesn't generate many shots while Severson does.

Santini: 1.96 on ice goals for/60
Severson: 3.19 on ice goals for/60

Santini: 2.41 on ice goals against/60
Severson: 2.81 on ice goals against/60

Santini: 23.81 on ice shots for/60
Severson: 33.7 on ice shots for/60

Santini: 36.47 on ice shots against/60
Severson: 31.02 on ice shots against/60

So despite getting much tougher usage and not generating much offense, Santini is actually allowing 0.4 goals/60 minutes less than Severson is. He's definitely not on the ice for nearly as many goals. Really I think the biggest problem with Santini is he is being overused in a role he can't handle, and that if they reduced his difficult minutes he would look much better.

 

[BenedictGomez]

My opinion on the 2 is a huge minority opinion here, but I still believe Steve Santini will have a better NHL career than Damon Severson.

 

[MartyOwns]

Really I think the biggest problem with Player XXXXX is he is being overused in a role he can't handle, and that if they reduced his difficult minutes he would look much better.

i agree, and i mean honestly how often has this been a problem for the devils over the last 5 years or so? especially defensively, but there are plenty of forward examples too. we always seem to put ourselves in a position to fail vs a position to win by playing guys in roles they aren't accustomed to or with too much ice time. i guess this is a result of our relatively poor depth over that time frame...hopefully this won't still be a problem 5 years from now.

 

[John Pedro]

We're screw if Hall's injury is serious. He's caring the top line as Nico has been ice cold and Bratt is producing more as a playmaker in the PP. Palmieri can't return soon enough.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We're screw if Hall's injury is serious. He's caring the top line as Nico has been ice cold and Bratt is producing more as a playmaker in the PP. Palmieri can't return soon enough.

It's a bruise.

 

[FooteBahl]

We're screw if Hall's injury is serious. He's caring the top line as Nico has been ice cold and Bratt is producing more as a playmaker in the PP. Palmieri can't return soon enough.

It’s only a bruise and he’s day to day. We dodged a North Korean nuke with this one.