I don't think you're wrong, I think you're just defining some of the concepts improperly. Risk is the most important factor here, because although the "reward" for a success is much bigger than it used to be, the risk is equally larger.
Literally said risk has gone up as a result of raw increased costs and MTs are a manifestation of the corporate desire to minimize said risk but okay.
The stagnation of prices has a lot to do with them, as if games have followed inflation, the amount a game would have to sell to be a financial success would be a lot less. The problem is now that games haven't had incremental increases, so raising the prices now is very difficult.
And yet 30 and 40 dollar titles like PUBG and Overwatch are wildly popular and profitable. There is nothing set in stone that says you must spend X on a game to generate Y return. If you increase prices, you limit your market even more. If anything, prices need to come down. $40, capturing 95% of that, is preferable to getting 45% of $60. The plan was to move to digital only but people still don't seem ready for that. The used game churn is really hurting widescale releases, especially single player titles. The market at this point is simply bloated and can't support endless AAA releases. Somebody has to lose the arms race.
Back on topic: I've been playing shooters for close to 20 years now and this game has the worst set of objective maps I have ever seen or played. The first game is miles better. What the f*** happened?