Stamkos Debate - PreDeadline 2016

[Jerkini]

It's kind of ludicrous to think our center situation could be resolved as early as next season? Stamkos and Matthews would be a pretty ideal top-two, no? Nylander can shift back to the wing, Marner can stay there as well. With JVR, that's a pretty solid top-5.. Assuming Matthews, Marner and Nylander pan out. Lots of what-ifs I guess.

 

[Faltorvo]

Sorry, working magic is just a saying. Nothing magical about it

oh I understand babs

but around here

I'd say using the word "magic" defaults folks into thinking Clarkson,dion,kessel level moves

those 3 = magic

 

[Babcocks Marner]

The only thing that sucks with Lupul buyout.... the dead space.

4.5
6
4.5
2.7

guess you gotta do what you gotta do.

 

[TorontoTrades]

I don't think cap will be a problem:

if they don't burn Nylander and Kapanen's first years then they as well as Marner and our 1st pick can sign bridge contracts those mid size deals... example sign a 4 year deals takes them to the end of Stamkos' deal. Regardless we'll have lots of cap.

even without buying out we have tons coming off the books (Cowen buyout pretty clearly stated though)... sure we need guys to fill those spots but they'll be likely cheaper...

2016: Parenteau, Grabner, Stalock, Boyes all likely gone... that's about 7 mill + Cowen's buy out which has been stated will happen. Move out Bozak at the draft and you're left with about 15 million for Stamkos, Kadri's raise if they choose to keep him.. which won't be too big as he's at 4.1 already... and Rielly's extention which if they choose to bridge deal is no problem.

2017: Michalek, Laich, Greening, Bernier all come off... which is over 15 miillion coming off the books. absolutely tons of room now. Robidas' contract is gone as well.

2018: JVR needs a raise which is off set but Lupul's 5 million going out the door.



the only money we have committed is on LTIR with Horton... other than that it's a wide open with no one signed more than 2 years beyond this season.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

I don't think cap will be a problem:

if they don't burn Nylander and Kapanen's first years then they as well as Marner and our 1st pick can sign bridge contracts those mid size deals... example sign a 4 year deals takes them to the end of Stamkos' deal. Regardless we'll have lots of cap.

even without buying out we have tons coming off the books (Cowen buyout pretty clearly stated though)... sure we need guys to fill those spots but they'll be likely cheaper...

2016: Parenteau, Grabner, Stalock, Boyes all likely gone... that's about 7 mill + Cowen's buy out which has been stated will happen. Move out Bozak at the draft and you're left with about 15 million for Stamkos, Kadri's raise if they choose to keep him.. which won't be too big as he's at 4.1 already... and Rielly's extention which if they choose to bridge deal is no problem.

2017: Michalek, Laich, Greening, Bernier all come off... which is over 15 miillion coming off the books. absolutely tons of room now. Robidas' contract is gone as well.

2018: JVR needs a raise which is off set but Lupul's 5 million going out the door.



the only money we have committed is on LTIR with Horton... other than that it's a wide open with no one signed more than 2 years beyond this season.

Keep it simple. We have 54 spent already, and we need to make moves to fit Stamkos, Kadri (if you want him), Rielly, and maybe Vessey and Zaitsev, and at least 3 Dmen to give us 7. (4 without Zaitsev)

If you want Stamkos, next year is the most important in terms of cap, the following years are gravy.

I have been trying to learn more about LITR, and it doesn't seem like an asset the Leafs can exploit that much. CBA guys would have to comment on that, I get headaches trying to read it.

 

[New Liskeard]

Keep it simple. We have 54 spent already, and we need to make moves to fit Stamkos, Kadri (if you want him), Rielly, and maybe Vessey and Zaitsev, and at least 3 Dmen to give us 7. (4 without Zaitsev)

If you want Stamkos, next year is the most important in terms of cap, the following years are gravy.

I have been trying to learn more about LITR, and it doesn't seem like an asset the Leafs can exploit that much. CBA guys would have to comment on that, I get headaches trying to read it.

54 million excluding the buyout of Cowen and his 2.1 and I also believe Hortons 5.3 comes off the cap if they reach the ceiling. Should leave approximately 46, 600 000 and cap space of 24 900 000 to sign Stamkos, Kadri, Reilly, Vessey and Zaitsev and 3 more D. Likely Percy/Loov/Harrington/Carrick all making up the D making less than 1 mil each. Likely need clarification on the impact of the Horton cap hit.

 

[Faltorvo]

Keep it simple. We have 54 spent already, and we need to make moves to fit Stamkos, Kadri (if you want him), Rielly, and maybe Vessey and Zaitsev, and at least 3 Dmen to give us 7. (4 without Zaitsev)

If you want Stamkos, next year is the most important in terms of cap, the following years are gravy.

I have been trying to learn more about LITR, and it doesn't seem like an asset the Leafs can exploit that much. CBA guys would have to comment on that, I get headaches trying to read it.

Try this

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir


it sounds like

either you enter the season under the cap and then you get all of hortons ltir overage

or what ever amount you are over the cap to start the season (dipping into hortons ltir) that's the max Hortons LTIR relief will be for that season


IE ( if we are 1m over the cap, to start) then for the rest of the season that's all hortons ltir is worth to us 1 million.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

54 million excluding the buyout of Cowen and his 2.1 and I also believe Hortons 5.3 comes off the cap if they reach the ceiling. Should leave approximately 46, 600 000 and cap space of 24 900 000 to sign Stamkos, Kadri, Reilly, Vessey and Zaitsev and 3 more D. Likely Percy/Loov/Harrington/Carrick all making up the D making less than 1 mil each. Likely need clarification on the impact of the Horton cap hit.

Well we need a legit answer on LTIR.... because I have heard it all, and reading it, just seems like a lawyer wrote it, and it's a bit tricky to fully understand.

This is what I was told, and it might be 100% WRONG... so bare with me.

You can only use LTIR to replace an injured player. However, the cap must be back to normal (Horton included) to start and end the season. So the way I saw it:
To sign Stamkos, you can't use LTIR because that cap has to be active to start the season, also to end the season. So to start and end the season, Horton counts, and you have to work around him.

I would LOVE someone to clarify this. I can read it 100 times and still not fully understand it.

Once I said we could use LTIR to sign Stammer on the main boards, and was crucified for it......

 

[New Liskeard]

Well we need a legit answer on LTIR.... because I have heard it all, and reading it, just seems like a lawyer wrote it, and it's a bit tricky to fully understand.

This is what I was told, and it might be 100% WRONG... so bare with me.

You can only use LTIR to replace an injured player. However, the cap must be back to normal (Horton included) to start and end the season. So the way I saw it:
To sign Stamkos, you can't use LTIR because that cap has to be active to start the season, also to end the season. So to start and end the season, Horton counts, and you have to work around him.

I would LOVE someone to clarify this. I can read it 100 times and still not fully understand it.

Once I said we could use LTIR to sign Stammer on the main boards, and was crucified for it......

Im certainly not the guy to explain the intricacies of how the LTIR on Horton works on the cap. Im sure I read it comes to effect when the Leafs climb to the cap ceiling but clearly someone needs to explain it in more detail. I stand by my belief the Leafs have plenty of cap space to do all the things mentioned.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Try this

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir


it sounds like

either you enter the season under the cap and then you get all of hortons ltir overage

or what ever amount you are over the cap to start the season (dipping into hortons ltir) that's the max Hortons LTIR relief will be for that season


IE ( if we are 1m over the cap, to start) then for the rest of the season that's all hortons ltir is worth to us 1 million.

Thanks, this was a bit different. Thought you were pointing me to the CBA, which I read 100 times and still don't get it fully

Like I said, main boards said you can't do that. Glad we hired that cap guy If anyone knows how to use it, he does.

 

[IBeL34f]

My understanding with LTIR is that it only kicks in to give you cap relief when actually up against the cap during the season. So if the Leafs have $70M tied up in contracts, including Horton's, during the season, we are allowed to carry one player whose contract is equal to, or less than, the excess of Horton's contract above the cap. If the Leafs aren't up against the cap, say they're at $60M or so, Horton would still count against the cap because we don't need the space.

So say the cap is $72M, and we have $70M tied up, including Horton (rounded his cap hit to $5M for simplicity), we're allowed to add one roster player whose contract would bring us up to no higher than $75M ($2M in proper cap space, $3M from Horton's LTIR relief).

During the off-season though, there is no LTIR, so all contracts count against the cap, including Horton's. This causes some issue in terms of our wiggle room, but it's important to keep in mind that teams can go an extra 10% above the cap during the off-season. Since that 10% ($7.2M in this example) is more than Horton's contract is worth ($5M), we can still allow ourselves to build our full roster in the off-season, as long as we don't try and get too cute taking on other teams' dead weight. So it restricts what we can do as a middle-man or facilitator, but should have very little effect on how we properly conduct our actual team-building.

With regards to Stamkos, this would mean we would only need the difference between his new contract and Horton's contract in actual free cap space at any time. So if we sign Stammer for $10M, we need $5M in cap space, as the 10% offseason overage, and Horton's in-season LTIR, should allow for the rest. Obviously Stamkos' contract can't be used as Horton's replacement, since it's twice the cost, but we wouldn't look at it that way anyway, we'd have someone else as Horton's relief player.

That's my understanding anyway. I'm no capologist, so someone can feel free to let me know if I'm wrong.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

I got this off main board. (Credit to Ivan13 (AVS fan) ) Think IBeL13f nailed it. This is good news.


When a player has an injury of which they are expected to miss 10 games and 24 days, the team can place them on long term injured reserve (LTIR) to receive cap relief.

When a player is placed on LTIR, their cap hit technically remains on the teams cap payroll and it continues to count as it always did. It also does not provide the club with additional cap-space savings that can be banked for future use while the team operates below the salary cap. Instead, LTIR provides relief if the club's averaged club salary, or payroll, begins to exceed the upper limit. The amount of relief that the club receives is calculated on the day the player is placed on LTIR. There are two formulas that are used to determine the LTIR relief, the first formula, the basic formula, can be used during the season and during the off-season. The second formula, the training-camp formula, can be used during the off-season.

Basic Formula
This formula is used throughout the season and during the off-season
Amount team can exceed the cap = Cap hit of LTIR player - Amount of cap space available
Training-Camp Formula
This formula can only be used during the off-season
Amount team can exceed the cap = Team cap hit - season salary cap
Basic Formula Example
The league upper limit is $69M. A team has an averaged club salary of $68M and a player with a cap hit of $5M becomes injured and the team places him on LTIR. The team is now permitted to spend up to a new limit of $72M:
Cap hit of LTIR player is $5M
Amount of cap space available to team = $69M - $68M = $1M
Amount team can exceed the cap = $5M - $1M = $4M
New limit = $68M + $4M = $72M
To add to this example, if the team were to recall a player from the AHL, with a cap hit of $950k, the teams would instead be permitted to spend up to a new limit of $72.95M:
Cap hit of LTIR player is $5M
Amount of cap space available to team = $69M - $68.95M = $0.05M
Amount team can exceed the cap = $5M - $0.05M = $4.95M
New limit = $68M + $4.95M = $72.95M
For this reason, when a player is activated onto LTIR, one day recalls are relatively common as they can be used to maximize the cap relief from an LTIR player.
Training-Camp Formula Example
The league upper limit is $69M. A team has an averaged club salary of $71M and a player with a cap hit of $5M becomes injured and the team places him on LTIR. The team is now permitted to spend up to a new limit of $71M:
Team cap hit = $71M
Season salary cap = $69M
Amount team can exceed the cap = $71 - $69M = $2M
New limit = $69M + $2M = $71M
To add to this example, if the team were to recall two players from the AHL, one with a cap hit of $950k and the other $2M, the teams would instead be permitted to spend up to a new limit of $73.95M:
Team cap hit = $73.95M
Season salary cap = $69M
Amount team can exceed the cap = $73.95 - $69M = $4.95M
New limit = $69M + $4.95M = $73.95M
Again, for this reason, when a player is activated onto LTIR, one day recalls are relatively common as they can be used to maximize the cap relief from an LTIR player.

 

[HellasLEAF]

His skating is fine. It's his scoring that is the question.

He and agent must be disappointed to be held pointless against the Marlies last night.

You know pretty much every top player's scoring has been on the decline though. Was a pretty serious injury he suffered as well.

I don't think it's Stammer. I just think the league, team defence and NHL goalies are tougher to put pucks passed.

He is still Steven Stamkos know what I mean? He is in his his prime years and the guy didn't just forget how to score. Him ripping it up of late is nice re-assurance though.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You know pretty much every top player's scoring has been on the decline though. Was a pretty serious injury he suffered as well.

I don't think it's Stammer. I just think the league, team defence and NHL goalies are tougher to put pucks passed.

He is still Steven Stamkos know what I mean? He is in his his prime years and the guy didn't just forget how to score. Him ripping it up of late is nice re-assurance though.

No I don't, what do you mean? He's not playing anywhere close to the level he was playing at before his injury, do you know what I mean? I'm sure he didn't "forget" how to score, but he isn't scoring like he used to, that's for sure. So if he didn't forget, what's the issue?

I'm also encouraged by the fact that he is playing better lately as I do feel he is going to end up here. It's still only been a few weeks though, not exactly a massive sample size when we're talking about committing to a huge cap hit for a 7 year term.

 

[thewave]

One thing that I don't think was mentioned in here. Stamkos witnessed first hand what our top prospects are like and may pause to think this may go a lot more quickly than first thought.

Perhaps management took advantage of that and decided to display those players.

 

[Faltorvo]

hey GN

don't you find it ummm "rather convenient" that we played that team on that specific day?

any chance the Stammer/Tbay issue has been in the wind the" Pro ether chat" for a bit now?

teams do have a say on scheduling their home games after all

 

[Stephen]

No I don't, what do you mean? He's not playing anywhere close to the level he was playing at before his injury, do you know what I mean? I'm sure he didn't "forget" how to score, but he isn't scoring like he used to, that's for sure. So if he didn't forget, what's the issue?

I'm also encouraged by the fact that he is playing better lately as I do feel he is going to end up here. It's still only been a few weeks though, not exactly a massive sample size when we're talking about committing to a huge cap hit for a 7 year term.

His scoring totals are better or equal to Tavares, Getzlaf, Malkin are Kucherov, and within five points of Tarasenko, Giroux, Kopitar. It's not a great year, but a lot of his peers are struggling too, and I would happily take any of those players.

 

[Faltorvo]

Thanks, this was a bit different. Thought you were pointing me to the CBA, which I read 100 times and still don't get it fully

Like I said, main boards said you can't do that. Glad we hired that cap guy If anyone knows how to use it, he does.

hey man

can't figure out what the "big dogs " are up to

if one does not know the rules that guide them.

like you paying attention to our cap "bottle neck" next season

far too many think "work does not have to be done" to fit in a stammer attempt

and far to many foolishly believe that this management team is not lining up their ducks to take a run at him.

what ever, those opposed have a pretty bad track record around here for being right on things.

 

[Gary Nylund]

One thing that I don't think was mentioned in here. Stamkos witnessed first hand what our top prospects are like and may pause to think this may go a lot more quickly than first thought.

Perhaps management took advantage of that and decided to display those players.

I'm skeptical - I think we would have called up who we called up no matter who we were playing. I do think if I Stamkos likes our prospects it may make him more likely to want to play here but I doubt it's a big factor - we're a huge dog to win a cup in the next 7 years no matter how good Kapanen played last night.

hey GN

don't you find it ummm "rather convenient" that we played that team on that specific day?

any chance the Stammer/Tbay issue has been in the wind the" Pro ether chat" for a bit now?

teams do have a say on scheduling their home games after all

Hmm, conspiracy theory of the day. I'm skeptical of this also but I guess we can never know for sure.

 

[slozo]

And Stamkos already has money Nike, Bauer, Tissot, EA Sports even Sport Chek.

Which additional companies will give him this mother load of endorsement money beyond what he has already made... tax friendly earnings I might add?

Please stop quoting this "tax friendly" mantra.
He's a Canadian citizen, who has to declare his earnings and pay taxes to Revenue Canada just like everyone else. There's no big savings there in Florida.

 

[Menzinger]

Well scoring across the board in the nhl is down, only 10 players in the league are on pace to top 79 points.

Maybe Mez does not care about pedigree and career performance

I do , this is not some flash in the pan that topped 80p once under perfect circumstances. This is a proven out Elite center, who is only 26

I don't care about past performance when considering a 7 year deal, it's not about the type of player he was when he was 23-24, it's about the kind of player he's going to be as a 29-33 year old.

I'm on the "pro" side of signing Stankos for the most part - but it does come down to cap hit. I think he will be a consistent 60-80 point guy for the next 7 years and that's a valuable piece for any team to have.

I don't believe for a second his agent signs him in Toronto for a dime under 11 million per year.

So the question then becomes is it worth paying a top 10 scorer in the league the highest salary in the NHL? Is that a smart allocation of capspace to a sniper with below average defensive play?

Maybe. I'm glad I'm not the one making the decision. If they sign him for a massive deal I'll be excited and cross my fingers and hope for the best, amd if they don't I'll breath a sigh of relief.

 

[Menzinger]

EXACTLY!
Boedker is probably going to be overpaid, there's very little chance he becomes a 30 goal scorer in the league, since he's never scored 20 goals.

But even if you think Stamkos will be overpaid at 11 mil say . . . because he isn't Sydney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin . . . can you even get anyone who is close in value to that on the open market?

Like, Loui Eriksson for instance . . . he'll be a UFA I believe. Ok, he's scored over 30 goals once before. And he's had concussion issues and struggles to score 20 now. Sure you could pay him . . . what, 5 mil? 4.5 mil? You want to overpay on that?

Who do you guys want to overpay on, and why do you think overpaying on a few less talented players is better than overpaying on one elite scorer?

The other option is to avoid high priced UFAs all together, save cap for your own players and to have extra room to make deadline deals when looking for that extra piece to get you over the top.

You don't NEED to dump tons of cash in the free agency market - a quick review of recent cup winners is enough evidence of that.

Again that's not to say the Leafs shouldn't sign Stamkos, I just don't like the argument of "well we have to spend cap space if we have it" - no they don't.

 

[ACC1224]

Please stop quoting this "tax friendly" mantra.
He's a Canadian citizen, who has to declare his earnings and pay taxes to Revenue Canada just like everyone else. There's no big savings there in Florida.

Exactly, tax is a non issue.

You can be sure that any of these pre-existing deals will be looked at by his Agent and renegotiated as his exposure will be that much greater being here.

 

[Menzinger]

It's not a matter of federal tax - it's state vs provincial tax rates that matter.

Which is why 8.5 million in Florida actually nets more cash in Stamkos' bank account than getting 10 million in Ontario.

 

[Jerkini]

It's not a matter of federal tax - it's state vs provincial tax rates that matter.

Which is why 8.5 million in Florida actually nets more cash in Stamkos' bank account than getting 10 million in Ontario.

What if he takes 8.5 in Florida and then gets traded to New York. A NTC doesn't mean anything in this day and age. If he's worth $11m in New York or Toronto, he should get that amount in Florida.