Stamkos Debate - PreDeadline 2016

[indigobuffalo]

Friedman was speculating that Yzerman's offer to Stamkos "started with an '8'..." so I would imagine that means $80-89M range, and assuming 8-years, would be a cap hit between $10M to $11.125M.

I'm going out on a limb but just assuming he didn't mean $8M to $8.9M per season AAV.

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[Pookie]

unless he wanted to be part of the solution?
I don't know. what I do know is is that everyone and their mother were saying how Babcock would never sign in Toronto, he would want to sign somewhere else to guarantee his best chances of winning and surpassing Bowman as Greatest Coach Ever.

and yet, Babcock chose to come here and help make Toronto great and help bring a championship here.

So maybe Stamkos just doesn't want to do a victory lap? Depending on what is being said, maybe he'll want to be part of the whole cornerstone thing too. You can't just assume that the 2016 pick won't play on the team (if Matthews/Laine/Pulju are drafted, they easily could make the roster next year. (I mean - it wouldn't surprise me either way, but you can't just assume they won't). You're assuming that the Leafs aren't going to trade for some pieces (they have to - they don't have a team past next year - and they're not going to qualify everyone), to help the team be better.

and as i've stated - there's no guarantee that signing with a "better team with a better chance to win." gets Stamkos a cup any faster than being with the worst team in the NHL

but. we will see what happens. Again. I am of the volition that Stamkos will stay with Tampa. however - if he's not signed + with the cap going down by 4 million, there aren't a lot of teams out there who can afford him without having to trade some significant assets to make it work.

We do.

It's all about odds Daisy. No one can predict the future but IF a Cup is his goal, his odds of doing it here are small.

If that is a factor, it's a huge negative in Toronto's favour. And would make the "victory lap" scenario more attractive. He wouldn't be saying never Toronto. He would just say not now. If fact, if he wanted he could put a NTC in his contract which states that he would only accept a trade to the Leafs. Lots of ways for him to still have the TO dream while focusing on the reality of actually winning a Cup over the next few years.

You may be right and he'll want to be a part of the solution. Maybe that is the bigger driver. I've not heard him say anything of the sort but he probably wouldn't anyways. So, that's an unknown and for me to suggest he won't have that motivation weighs about the same as you or someone else saying he will.

 

[EN4CER]

To win the cup is very difficult... No matter who he decides to play with, there are no guarantees. Personally I'd rather be in the playoffs for Toronto, than any other team. Win or lose, you can't compare the atmosphere that the city creates. Mark my words, he's coming. Why would Stamkos leave Tampa just to play for some other organization? He's ONLY leaving Tampa to come home. It all started with Lebron and Stamkos is going to do the same. Now for anything more than 10.5 million, forget it I don't want him. Let's just see how our management works this thing out. Tampa is going to definitely want to save face on this one and is hoping Toronto does a trade for his rights.

 

[Stephen]

I'm going to try to make a few points for Toronto:

1) Hometown Team. This doesn't make a ton of sense on the surface because everybody in the hockey world is pretty used to the idea of Toronto being a complete joke, but just look at the kind of hype the Blue Jays brought to the city the past summer with a playoff run. Look at how all those hometown superstars in the NHL flocked to that situation. Wouldn't they want to be the Josh Donaldson to a Leaf renaissance?

2) We have some impressive people running the organization now. This isn't your Brian Burke, Cliff Fletcher, JFJ clown show. How did this organization manage to clear roughly $20 million in cap space on the eve of the cap going down for the first time since 2005-06?

3) There's a lot of talent below the surface of the organization in the system developing to be injected in the system. The cap space can also be used to help build a supporting cast.

4) Bandwagoning with any organization or staying in one place doesn't guarantee you any cup.

 

[Razz]

Cap going down pretty much guarantees Stamkos is coming here in my mind. Who can drop 10M on a long term deal with a cap going down? Nobody but the leafs that's who. Our management staff deserves some serious kudos. I'm not used to the Leafs being ready for a cap crunch...is this real life?

 

[Ovate]

Can the people who think Stamkos will sign with a contender tell me which competitive team has the cap space next year to offer him $10M+? Because in my mind there's about two, and both have a history of being concerned about their budget.

No matter where he signs, it's going to be with a bubble team at best. Even if he re-signs in Tampa, he's choosing to sign with Tampa Bay minus Stamkos, which is still a bubble team.

 

[Faltorvo]

It's all about odds Daisy. No one can predict the future but IF a Cup is his goal, his odds of doing it here are small.

If that is a factor, it's a huge negative in Toronto's favour. And would make the "victory lap" scenario more attractive. He wouldn't be saying never Toronto. He would just say not now. If fact, if he wanted he could put a NTC in his contract which states that he would only accept a trade to the Leafs. Lots of ways for him to still have the TO dream while focusing on the reality of actually winning a Cup over the next few years.

You may be right and he'll want to be a part of the solution. Maybe that is the bigger driver. I've not heard him say anything of the sort but he probably wouldn't anyways. So, that's an unknown and for me to suggest he won't have that motivation weighs about the same as you or someone else saying he will.

to the bolded

small in what time frame?

Florida is a strong cup candidate this year and they finished 2nd last 1.5 seasons ago

Tbay themselves went from drafting 3rd overall to cup finals, the second season played after that happened

 

[BayStreetBully]

It's all about odds Daisy. No one can predict the future but IF a Cup is his goal, his odds of doing it here are small.

If that is a factor, it's a huge negative in Toronto's favour. And would make the "victory lap" scenario more attractive. He wouldn't be saying never Toronto. He would just say not now. If fact, if he wanted he could put a NTC in his contract which states that he would only accept a trade to the Leafs. Lots of ways for him to still have the TO dream while focusing on the reality of actually winning a Cup over the next few years.

You may be right and he'll want to be a part of the solution. Maybe that is the bigger driver. I've not heard him say anything of the sort but he probably wouldn't anyways. So, that's an unknown and for me to suggest he won't have that motivation weighs about the same as you or someone else saying he will.

Personally, I wouldn't want a 33 year old Stamkos who rejected Toronto when he was 26. If he doesn't come here at 26, he doesn't need to come here at all.

 

[Pookie]

to the bolded

small in what time frame?

Florida is a strong cup candidate this year and they finished 2nd last 1.5 seasons ago

Tbay themselves went from drafting 3rd overall to cup finals, the second season played after that happened

Florida? You are counting them as bad to contenders in two years? A team that hasn't qualified for the playoffs in 14 of the past 16 seasons and you are counting their clock at 1.5?

Really?

As for Tampa, it's also a little disingenuous considering that you are starting your count in the 2012-13 season. Tampa missed the playoffs 5 of the previous 6 seasons prior to that and drafted players like:

Stamkos (2008)
Hedman (2009)
Kucherov (2011)

prior to when you started your counting clock.

If you go back to the Stamkos draft, it took Stamkos, Hedman and 8 years to reach the Cup final. Key parts of the puzzle weren't they?

We don't have a Stamkos or a Hedman yet.

So, small chance… as in peanut size… minuscule… getting hit by lightning while swimming in an indoor pool in the winter kind of chance… that the Leafs would be able to compete for a Cup over his contract terms.

 

[Pookie]

Personally, I wouldn't want a 33 year old Stamkos who rejected Toronto when he was 26. If he doesn't come here at 26, he doesn't need to come here at all.

I wouldn't' want him either but he could take that approach and the team may need a veteran at that time.

 

[Menzinger]

Ultimately I think Stamkos will go to the team that offers him the most money - meaning that at minimum it will cost a team 10.5 per, and likely 11+ million to sign him. Hockey stars are very ego driven - he will likely think he can turn any team he goes to into a contender, and historically free agents chase cash more than anything else.

Shanahan, Babcock and Lou will be able to make a very competitive pitch for him to come.

He will be over paid for what he brings on the ice - the good news is though it will likely be by at most 2 million per, which is manageable for the Leafs especially given seeo retention in the Dion deal.

I'd sign him, but would stress that people expecting him to be a 90 point guy will be disappointed. He's likely a 70-80 point guy the rest of his career.

 

[Daisy Jane]

to the bolded

small in what time frame?

Florida is a strong cup candidate this year and they finished 2nd last 1.5 seasons ago

Tbay themselves went from drafting 3rd overall to cup finals, the second season played after that happened

that's the thing. and i think a lot of people are all wrapped up in Scorched Earth. which - I might add.
has happened.

3 biggest bloated contracts this side of 30 - gone.
scouting and development - knocked down and built up
new coaching, new everything else.

we draft low this year - quite frankly, we have 2 more "bad" years - depending on what Lou does via trading. Nylander, Marner and 2016 Player (depending on where we draft) are on this team, as well as at least 3-4 other Marlies (your Soshnikov, your Leivo, and your Harrington/Percy. At least). you build in the struggles with that - we're drafting still top 4 through 8.

by year three (which is year four for Shanahan) - we're trending upwards for the most part. and again, that's not even taking into consideration the aggressive trading that will happen. We DO NOT have a team past 2017 almost everyone is UFA (your Bozak, Lupul, Bernier), or RFA (everyone else, minus your Rielly, Nylander, Marner, etc).

a lot of cap space, a lot of contract space (if we don't qualify a lot of contracts, which I think logistically we don't - or we give them AHL only contracts, see how they do then NHL'em if necessary). We can't do 1/2 a team of mercaneries again (I think that well has dried up you sign 2-3 to get yourself a pick or two.


and good point re: Tampa. they went from being a top 3 draft team to the finals, to being relatively good (I wouldn't say they're strong contenders this year but anything can happen in the playoffs). and why? a good 1/2 of their team were in the minors playing together, building connections, winning, and they all translated up here.

Again - not saying it's gonna be exactly the same for the leafs - but most of the Marlies team that is kicking a lot of behind right now is happening due to Leafs drafting.

I still have my Stamkos fears, but again. now, the main one is gone - and i think the key here is AAV, and making it so he gets his money but the AAV isn't too high up on our cap.

 

[Menzinger]

Florida? You are counting them as bad to contenders in two years? A team that hasn't qualified for the playoffs in 14 of the past 16 seasons and you are counting their clock at 1.5?

Really?

As for Tampa, it's also a little disingenuous considering that you are starting your count in the 2012-13 season. Tampa missed the playoffs 5 of the previous 6 seasons prior to that and drafted players like:

Stamkos (2008)
Hedman (2009)
Kucherov (2011)

prior to when you started your counting clock.

If you go back to the Stamkos draft, it took Stamkos, Hedman and 8 years to reach the Cup final. Key parts of the puzzle weren't they?

We don't have a Stamkos or a Hedman yet.

So, small chance… as in peanut size… minuscule… getting hit by lightning while swimming in an indoor pool in the winter kind of chance… that the Leafs would be able to compete for a Cup over his contract terms.

If the a Leafs aren't competitive within the next 7 years they might as well fold the franchise now and move it to Quebec City. Nylander will be a UFA by then.

The Leafs window for contention will be when Marner and Nylander are in the 22-26 age range - which would be within a Stamko contract.

 

[EN4CER]

Florida? You are counting them as bad to contenders in two years? A team that hasn't qualified for the playoffs in 14 of the past 16 seasons and you are counting their clock at 1.5?

Really?

As for Tampa, it's also a little disingenuous considering that you are starting your count in the 2012-13 season. Tampa missed the playoffs 5 of the previous 6 seasons prior to that and drafted players like:

Stamkos (2008)
Hedman (2009)
Kucherov (2011)

prior to when you started your counting clock.

If you go back to the Stamkos draft, it took Stamkos, Hedman and 8 years to reach the Cup final. Key parts of the puzzle weren't they?

We don't have a Stamkos or a Hedman yet.

So, small chance… as in peanut size… minuscule… getting hit by lightning while swimming in an indoor pool in the winter kind of chance… that the Leafs would be able to compete for a Cup over his contract terms.

Hold up... IN YOUR OPINION, you're saying the chances of the Leafs COMPETING for a cup in the next 7-8 years is the same as getting hit by lightning in an indoor pool?

Whoa man, your glass is really half empty isn't it... Must suck for you to be a fan of this team then... I can only imagine how you felt during the JFJ and Burke eras. That swimming pool must have been a floating one in space.

 

[Al14]

Personally, I wouldn't want a 33 year old Stamkos who rejected Toronto when he was 26. If he doesn't come here at 26, he doesn't need to come here at all.

I agree, it's now or never Steven!

 

[Doug Gilmour]

Personally, I wouldn't want a 33 year old Stamkos who rejected Toronto when he was 26. If he doesn't come here at 26, he doesn't need to come here at all.

I will agree with this statement under this condition: he hits free agency, we offer him a contract but he signs with another purely based on the money and not the chances of winning a cup.

 

[MJ65]

Not more than $10 M for 6 or 7 years - 8 is a stretch

 

[Raymondo316]

Im pretty sure if Tampa offered 80-89 million over 8 years the deal would of been done by now

I highly doubt that deal is or ever was on the table from Tampa

 

[frankthetank91]

With Stamkos + 2nd or 3rd OV pick:

JVR-Stamkos-Marner
Laine/Pulju-Nylander-Kapanen
Leivo-Kadri-Brown
Leipsic-Gauthier-Carrick(legit have so many options for the 4th line, just guessing)

Rielly-Dermott
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Percy-Harrington

Reimer
Bibeau

 

[Trapper]

Not more than $10 M for 6 or 7 years - 8 is a stretch

I worry more about the cap hit than actual salary.
Trading for his rights would allow for that 8th year to reduce the hit. Depending on what TB wants for the rights that is. Nothing outrageous.

 

[Faltorvo]

Florida? You are counting them as bad to contenders in two years? A team that hasn't qualified for the playoffs in 14 of the past 16 seasons and you are counting their clock at 1.5?

Really?

As for Tampa, it's also a little disingenuous considering that you are starting your count in the 2012-13 season. Tampa missed the playoffs 5 of the previous 6 seasons prior to that and drafted players like:

Stamkos (2008)
Hedman (2009)
Kucherov (2011)

prior to when you started your counting clock.

If you go back to the Stamkos draft, it took Stamkos, Hedman and 8 years to reach the Cup final. Key parts of the puzzle weren't they?

We don't have a Stamkos or a Hedman yet.

So, small chance… as in peanut size… minuscule… getting hit by lightning while swimming in an indoor pool in the winter kind of chance… that the Leafs would be able to compete for a Cup over his contract terms.

Well then fold up shop pookie , if we can't compete for a cup within the next 7 years after this one, well, then shanny/lou and the gang have utterly failed.

I find your "well tbay had stammer" argument absolutely hilarious, seeing that the premise is us ADDING stammer.

and ummm ya, not sure if you have been paying any attention but we also have been gathering those needed high prospects for some years now

I am saying, making the playoffs within 2 seasons from now if we sign Stammer is possible

given our cap space after next season , as of right now a projected 47 million in space

Stammer,jvr,kadri,boz,koma,lups

season 2 of mArner/nylander , maybe Mathews/laine/pul

that could be our top 9 right there

4th line= UFA/AHL

riels,guards going into vet mode , that's a #1/2 and #3/4 right there , fill out 5/6/7 from UFA and AHL

just need to focus on a 1/2 and 3/4, depending how you grade riels/guards

the depth in our prospect pool is getting there


reims/berny as #1 or we find someone else over the next 1.5 years.


you call that a lightning strike in a indoor pool?

with babcock as our coach???????? like seriously pook?

 

[Razz]

Can the people who think Stamkos will sign with a contender tell me which competitive team has the cap space next year to offer him $10M+? Because in my mind there's about two, and both have a history of being concerned about their budget.

No matter where he signs, it's going to be with a bubble team at best. Even if he re-signs in Tampa, he's choosing to sign with Tampa Bay minus Stamkos, which is still a bubble team.

The Salary cap prevents this very situation from occurring. No contender will ever sign Stamkos as a UFA. The whole point of the cap is to deliver parity. Without the cap, Stamkos would probably be a Blackhawk.

 

[McMatthews]

Wait until July 1.

7 years, 9.5M per year.

 

[Budsfan]

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
Dreger Report: why the Leafs are an unlikely free agent choice for Stamkos. tsn.ca/1.437040

 

[EN4CER]

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
Dreger Report: why the Leafs are an unlikely free agent choice for Stamkos. tsn.ca/1.437040

Yeah ok Dreger... Go find out what Nonis is having for Dinner.