Confirmed with Link: Slavin re-signs, 7 years/$5.3 AAV

[Navin R Slavin]

Peesh is starting to sound suspiciously like Phish

I am not happy about that

 

[raynman]

Peesh is starting to sound suspiciously like Phish

I am not happy about that

Trey Anastastio is quite talented.

 

[Roboturner913]

Trey Anastastio is quite talented.

Let's get Jeff Beck's opinion on that

 

[the halleJOKEL]

i miss having a scapegoat

who is our scapegoat now? i think we are fresh out of goats

it can't be nordstrom... is it fleury? it has to be fleury, right?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

i miss having a scapegoat

who is our scapegoat now? i think we are fresh out of goats

it can't be nordstrom... is it fleury? it has to be fleury, right?

We better hope it's not Darling.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

we're drafting 12th overall, aren't we?

 

[Roboturner913]

i miss having a scapegoat

who is our scapegoat now? i think we are fresh out of goats

it can't be nordstrom... is it fleury? it has to be fleury, right?

Dude. Really?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Derek Ryan sucks so bad.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Unsustainable.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

We'd better hope that the suck didn't adhere to the number.

 

[tarheelhockey]

We'd better hope that the suck didn't adhere to the number.

So if Darling sucks, it's Ryan's fault.

I can live with that.

 

[Lempo]

Peesh is starting to sound suspiciously like Phish

I am not happy about that

 

[Lempo]

Oh, right... It is obvious to you guys that pisces = fish? They translate also this crap for us so I realized only too late that I never see the English nomentaclure used for the signs like The Fish, The Ram and The Mountain Sea-goat.

On a hilarious/ominous note, the only two fish-GOATs in the roster, with their birthdays of 12/22/88 and 12/29/86, respectively, are Scott Darling and some guy named D. Ryan.

 

[AD Skinner]

Pisces: try to avoid any Virgos or Leos with the Ebola virus. You are the true Lord of the Dance, no matter what those idiots at work say

 

[MinJaBen]

We'd better hope that the suck didn't adhere to the number.

So if Darling sucks, it's Ryan's fault.

I can live with that.

This doesn't bode well for Lindholm, then. At least the buyout will be cheaper...

 

[My Special Purpose]

Friends are already on it in the Despised Cliches thread:

Overrating of small market players, The Slavin Phenomenon: Wherein users heap praise onto a player they don't watch perform and readily gobble down anything the fan base of that player is ready to feed them so as not to look uninformed or foolish, I'm not saying Slavin is a bad player but there are users on here who take their entire perception on Slavin from Canes homers. Like imagine seeing other fanbases do that with William Nylander...it would be crazy.

We're in good hands here.

I know everyone's been waiting for this, so here goes:

First of all, this isn't on us, "the fan base." Yeah, we know how good Slavin is and we don't mind telling folks. But the US and Canadian media has been just as high on Slavin, if not higher, than we have been. If this guy has an issue with Slavin being overrated, it's not with us.

Secondly, he's not wrong about the phenomenon. Nobody likes getting left out of a good find. And it's much easier to overrate a player who fewer people have seen play regularly. Opinions spread much faster because there's no opposing viewpoint.

And finally, I think I have this sorted out a bit in my head. Slavin is great. He's an absolute stud defensive defenseman; one of the best in the league. But what is that worth? We gave Matt Larkin a hard time because he suggested we trade Slavin++ for Duchene. We assumed that meant he's massively underrating Slavin. But he's not.



He had Slavin *fifth* in Norris voting a few months after suggesting we trade him -- with more -- for Duchene.

I guess what he and I are saying is that Slavin is a terrific defenseman, but a Top 10 d-man isn't equal to a Top 10 player at another position. The value of the position is just lower. Another example is the contracts of Tomas Tatar and Colton Parayko in arbitration. Tatar is getting $1MM+ more per year and there's no team on the planet that would choose Tatar over Parayko, aside from the Czech National Team.

Again, I know you think I'm wrong, and I get it. It's OK with me. I just think the Canes are going to struggle until they address their lack of true top six talent up front. We may make the playoffs, but we're not going to win, and we're just going to make it harder to get our guy with a pick in the high teens.

Maybe we get lucky with a Kucherov or a Kuznetsov, but based on the country of origin of those guys, I doubt it. We're just not going to get a No. 1 forward until we trade for him, and I think we'll struggle to get over the hump until we do.

 

[NotOpie]

Again, I know you think I'm wrong, and I get it. It's OK with me. I just think the Canes are going to struggle until they address their lack of true top six talent up front. We may make the playoffs, but we're not going to win, and we're just going to make it harder to get our guy with a pick in the high teens.

Maybe we get lucky with a Kucherov or a Kuznetsov, but based on the country of origin of those guys, I doubt it. We're just not going to get a No. 1 forward until we trade for him, and I think we'll struggle to get over the hump until we do.

One step at a time baby, one step at a time....

I'll take the playoffs this year, competitive in the playoffs next year, and a true contender the next year after that.

On a slightly related note, I'd be curious to know if anybody would make this trade off:

From 2005-2017 the Hurricanes have made the playoffs twice, once winning the Cup and once losing in the ECF. Would you trade those 12 years results for what the New York Rangers did over the same time span. If my calculations are correct they missed the playoffs only one time, lost in the ECF twice, and lost in the Cup finals once.

Would you trade our Cup and our lone ECF finals appearance for what the Rangers did over the same time period?

 

[Roboturner913]

suggesting we trade him[/URL] -- with more -- for Duchene.

Then, frankly, he's an idiot.

No GM in the league makes that trade. Not a single one.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Kev brings up some interesting points. Let me kind of piggyback them and kind of just type things.

I love Slavin. I also think it's very possible that the Slavin from last season is the best season he will ever put together. That's ok, a step back still makes him a legit top 4 dman. Hopefully he takes a step forward.

I'm not saying with the above that I don't like Slavin. Slavin's season last year reminds me of a young goalie that puts up a .930 sv%. Young goalies that put up .930 save percentage don't immediately get slapped with .950 expectations the next year. It's understood that that's... kind of as good as a goalie can reasonably get. When you are a defenseman that plays a "make the right, simple play every time" type of style, it's a similar thing, there's only so much farther you can go. We've already had the discussion recently about the, oh, two times Slavin screwed up last year. Well, what's he going to do this year, screw up once? That doesn't bring much more to this team. It's the curse of a "defensive" defenseman. In order to bring "more" to this team than he brought last year, Slavin will need to step it up offensively, because on defense there's just not much more he can do. Could that offense come? Sure. But if it doesn't, Slavin's just not getting any "better", it would seem to me.

I think it's very clear at this point that Slavin is not underrated as a whole. At the time of signing, Twitter was freaking out about how Slavin's contract was going to be the greatest steal of a contract in the NHL in two years. That's not flying under the radar. Things like Weekes and Hradek both picking Slavin as the top dman from the 2012 draft. That's not flying under the radar. Slavin's reputation now matches what he's bringing to us, and that's ok. Unfortunately a couple of HF posters haven't gotten that memo, and use him as a throw-in for trade proposals. Doesn't change the fact that he's getting league-wide respect.



I agree with kev that we need a top forward, and I agree that at this point it's tough to see us going deep without one. But, I also think there's more of a disconnect with Matt Larkin's logic than kev does, for me, seeing him give Slavin a top 5 Norris vote then suggesting we trade him++ for Duchene is simply a logical disconnect. Yes, I'll take a franchise forward over a franchise dman, but "Slavin++ for Duchene" is taking that reasoning and driving it far past its usefulness. Duchene has a million question marks, and Slavin is a pretty darn safe bet to be a top pairing guy on this team for the next 5-10 years. That trade in particular is nonsense, but kev's point stands: a top forward will be necessary to push this team over the top.




But, what's the appropriate way to approach this? Well, where do people get top line forwards?

1) The first round (specifically top 10) of the Draft
2) "Luck into" a Kucherov or a Kuznetsov
3a) Trade for one using our defensive depth (Jones/Johansen)
3b) Trade for a young guy with top line potential (Sergachev/Drouin)
4) Sign one in free agency

Well, where are we in those processes?

1) Skinner is a top line guy no questions asked. Otherwise, we've got a lot of question marks. Lindholm, Necas, Gauthier are all first rounders that could potentially become legit first liners, but are all varying degrees away from attaining that ceiling.

2) We've done good here. Rask isn't a top liner, but is somewhere between having top 6 potential and currently being a top 6 player. Sebastian Aho is currently a top 6 player, and may very well become not only a top line guy but a legit #1F on a real NHL team. Saarela, Kuokkanen, etc., may well become top 6 guys as well (but likely not the #1 forward we are talking about).

3a) We obviously haven't done this yet.

3b) We did kind of do this with Teravainen. I'm very curious to see where he gets next year. Most of the fancy stats suggest he was one of our overall best forwards last year. He's also only 22, a few months older than Lindholm, who we think can still take steps. Probably will never be a top 30 type, but may yet be a no-question top 6er.

We also did this 5 years ago with Jordan Staal. And while it's worked out, it hasn't quite worked out to the extent that we'd hoped.

4) Ill-advised, typically doesn't happen with franchise guys. I'm not going to tell you to get rid of your Tavares pipe dream though, go for it guys I don't care.



So, looking at the analysis above, the guys we already have in our franchise that may become legit top line players include:

Skinner (already one)
Aho
Lindholm
Necas
Gauthier
Rask
Teravainen

That's a lot of darts.



This team hasn't made the playoffs in 8 years. To be talking about the splashy trade that will take us over the top from being "just a playoff team" to a legit contender, then complaining that it hasn't happened yet, seems premature. This team is still building a foundation, and it seems to me to be a damn strong one.

Take a look at our top 12 forward group right now, then take a look at Nashville's from last year. Is it THAT much worse? It doesn't seem to me like it is. We can discuss and nitpick here and there, but that team made the Finals on the strength of its defense (and, after the first round, got fairly average goaltending along the way, certainly weren't the product of a hot goalie). It can be done without the superstar at forward. Nashville has proved that. The Kings have proved that.

Now, is the team that does it without the superstar the exception? Yes. But, seeing the success of it should be enough to not get us off our plan. We did a LOT of good things this offseason. That Johansen trade may come soon, it may not. But I'm leaving tomorrow's problems for tomorrow as long as we are doing the right things today, and this offseason has clearly been a success to me.

 

[Lempo]

First of all, this isn't on us, "the fan base." Yeah, we know how good Slavin is and we don't mind telling folks. But the US and Canadian media has been just as high on Slavin, if not higher, than we have been. If this guy has an issue with Slavin being overrated, it's not with us.

Secondly, he's not wrong about the phenomenon. Nobody likes getting left out of a good find. And it's much easier to overrate a player who fewer people have seen play regularly. Opinions spread much faster because there's no opposing viewpoint.

I didn't bring it up because it was a prime example but because it was a very timely example, of immediate Slavin pushback after he got some leaguewide notion to our chagrin. The point wasn't so much who it is that's been seen pumping Slavin's tires, but that there thankfully are posters who are vocal about Slavin's tires obviously being pumped by whoever and "I'm not saying he's not good, BUT..."

Because he's kind of meh in the context of Matthews' forty goals.

 

[Dishface]

I remember before the 2016 draft, I suggested our higher first and Slavin to move up in the top 3 to pick up Laine or Poolparty. Some of you guys thought it was fair at the time, but boy do things change in a year. If the Jets did the deal, that would be an easier pill to swallow, but getting just Poolparty, time will tell, but that would be no bueno.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I'd do Bean+Slavin for Laine right now. Obviously was better value last year. But man that kid can score goals.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don't see how Puljujarvi could get from where he is now to being worth Slavin+Bean. That would have to be a hell of a development curve over the next couple of years.

Laine, though. I don't know how you can say no to that. He's an Ovechkin or Stamkos level force as a goal scorer, and there are only so many kicks at that can in a given decade.

 

[Vagrant]

I don't think I agree about the positional value of forwards over defense. If anything, it seems like the trend in recent years towards playing elite forwards less than 20 minutes a night has the valuation of talent skewed back towards elite defenders now more than previously. I feel like salary valuation for defensemen is more competitive in favor of the team because there are fewer positions in the league and therefore the talent pool is much more concentrated. That makes the difference between good and great a little harder to define and a little harder to quantify. Less jobs for more candidates seems to suggest that it's a buyers market in terms of player retention. Since there are few counting stats that are widely accepted as measures of defensive competency, players are forced to rely upon comparables that may be inexact in situations like arbitration.

It's a little odd to think about it this way, but teams only usually have about 8 deep in NHL caliber defensemen if that and are usually about 15 or 16 deep in NHL forwards. It's hard to gain significant headway in a situation like that to justify being compensated significantly more than average.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I don't see how Puljujarvi could get from where he is now to being worth Slavin+Bean. That would have to be a hell of a development curve over the next couple of years.

Laine, though. I don't know how you can say no to that. He's an Ovechkin or Stamkos level force as a goal scorer, and there are only so many kicks at that can in a given decade.

I love Slavin and would wish him well in spreading the good word in Winnipeg.