Confirmed Signing with Link: [SJS] Karlsson re-signs (8 years, $11.5M AAV)

[krt88nc]

Am I looking at this wrong, 12 million to fill 7 more roster spots? Looks like the Sharks have a lot of work to fill out their roster.

 

[Cancuks]

Nearly a third of the payroll tied up in 3 dmen. This is going to be franchise crippling in a couple years when Karlsson and Burns decline. Vlasic has already started his. Aside from a couple of Russian prospects what else do the Sharks have? Their draft pick pool has been raided, they have an aging core, and no money left to sign free agents. Brutal times ahead indeed.

 

[SnarkAttack]

I do think Braun and Dillon have value. I could see Dillon on MTL for a 3rd +.

The trick is going to be replacing guys while not hitting lowering the quality of the supporting cast around the stars.

I think the Sharks are deep enough at F to lose a Donskoi and replace him. I'm less confident in Heed and Ryan than you, but we'll see.

Heed should be playing in the NHL. I would be very happy with him as a 6D/PP shot. Ryan last year was not very good, but the year before he seemed to be a clear top 4 defenseman in the making. Hopefully just a sophomore slump.

Either way, I'd rather go Karlsson/Heed/Ryan than Dillon/Braun/Realistic replacement

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

View attachment 237315 Am I looking at this wrong, 12 million to fill 7 more roster spots? Looks like the Sharks have a lot of work to fill out their roster.

They'll trade Dillon and or Braun and plug in Heed/Ryan and save 6+ mil right there.

There are a handful of moves they can make to easily make it work.

So stoked about this. can't wait until the team is healthy finally.

 

[Patty Ice]

I do think Braun and Dillon have value. I could see Dillon on MTL for a 3rd +.

The trick is going to be replacing guys while not hitting lowering the quality of the supporting cast around the stars.

I think the Sharks are deep enough at F to lose a Donskoi and replace him. I'm less confident in Heed and Ryan than you, but we'll see.

Heed, I believe, will be a low key steal of a signing wherever he ends up. If given opportunity, I think he can carve himself a place in the league. Ryan has already shown that to me but it would appear he isn't in the good graces of PDB. They do have guys like Middleton and possibly Roy to compete for jobs. Ferraro could always surprise as well. The only issue I have is that all these guys are not overly physical and big (save Middelton) which could be an issue in the playoffs

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

I do think Braun and Dillon have value. I could see Dillon on MTL for a 3rd +.

The trick is going to be replacing guys while not hitting lowering the quality of the supporting cast around the stars.

I think the Sharks are deep enough at F to lose a Donskoi and replace him. I'm less confident in Heed and Ryan than you, but we'll see.

Heed would be an adequate regular 3-RD. When he gets playing time he gets better and his breakout passes really start to click.

Ryan regressed this year, so he needs to prove his rookie season wasn't a fluke.

 

[duckpuck]

I actually don't think it's that bad of a deal. In a vacuum, Karlsson is worth the highest paying contract given his resume and game breaking ability. The injury doesn't concern me at all, and I think he'll pop back to form next year. The concern comes from the fact the Sharks have a lot of capital already invested into their blueline. Aren't they paying over $26 million a year for Karlsson, Burns, and Vlassic? That's a lot of cap room for just three defensemen.

I tend to agree. In a vacuum, you can't fault the Sharks for paying market for Karsson - and I think this is basically market given Doughty's contract. Also keep in mind he's in California - a high tax state - compared to other places like Florida and Dallas. So there are no discounts.

I'm sure the sharks will find a way to make it work in the short run, but they basically have a two year window before the roster looks really bad. Looking at their contract commitments, particularly in and after after 2021-22, and you see a lot of 32+ old players making a ton of money (Vlasic, Burns, Couture). And it only gets worse after that with lots of remaining term to those guys who will be in serious decline (probably Karlson and Kane too). During that period, they'll need to resign Lebanc, Hertl and Donskoi as well. They are in deep trouble between 2021-22 and 2025-26 unless they can shed a bunch of bad contracts.

 

[HandsomeTom43]

This is probably blasphemous, but I would trade Burns now to fill out the roster, maybe get some youth back.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It's not about just "shipping them out". It's about getting back the specific return of no salary back at a time when other teams are doing that. In the meantime, you will now have a D that is worse than the one that wasn't good enough last year.

Your coach last year chose to play Dillon 5 minutes more a game than Ryan. And Braun 6 minutes more a game than Heed. And Dillon and Braun were the 1st and 3rd D in defensive zone start % and now they are being replaced by the 2nd and 3rd lowest defensive zone stat guys on the team.

And shipping out Dell and replacing him with a minimum salary backup (otherwise why bother trading him) isn't going to help a team that already has a shaky starter.

Losing Karlsson would have hurt. But keeping him has its pains too.

First off, I want to say that I appreciate your perspective on these guys. You clearly are educated on the players and it's always interesting to hear the perspective of an outsider who does know what they're talking about.

Regarding the defensemen: Dillon had a great season but he has proven time and time again that he isn't a playoff performer and he doesn't handle top-4 minutes well. Braun is a solid defensive player who eats valuable minutes on the PK and heavy defensive minutes at even strength, but at this stage of his career, he probably suppresses his own team's offense more than he suppresses the opponent's offense. If Dillon and Braun are traded, I suspect that the team will acquire a bonafide top-4 LHD to replace him. Elliotte Friedman has reported something similar on Alexander Edler. If the Sharks do trade both of those guys and add nobody on the blue line, I do agree that it will hurt them a lot but I don't suspect they go that route.

If you can add Edler and a healthy Radim Simek to the roster, you have a D that is better than last year's. It's also a bit disingeuous to say that last year's D wasn't good enough based on their playoff failures. It was good enough to have them up 2-1 against the defending Cup Champions until the best player on that D got hurt again.

Shipping out Dell and replacing him with a minimum salary backup isn't exactly going to hurt the team either when Dell posted a .886 SV% this year. Adjusting the defensive system to shelter Jones with easier shot quality but higher shot volume is what will ultimately determine the performance of the Sharks goaltenders. Keeping Dell or replacing him with one of their internal options will not.

You can package the defensemen with one of Melker and Dell to separate teams and take a soft return on the D if you do find that they don't have much value around the league. I find it really hard to believe that Doug Wilson can't manage to get rid of those 4 when he got rid of Mikkel Boedker who had 2 years left at $4M and ended up getting back the 44th overall pick in this year's draft for doing so.

The pains of keeping Karlsson are not remotely in the same stratosphere as the pains from losing him.

 

[Avelanche]

it's a lot of money but if vlasic bounces back they have one of the best blue lines in the league locked up.

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

This is probably blasphemous, but I would trade Burns now to fill out the roster, maybe get some youth back.

Fight me irl.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

When he got traded to San Jose, I agreed with people arguing that having the two most profilic right-shooting offensive defensemen on the same team might not be a good thing. There is only one puck. If I remember correctly, they initially played together on the powerplay but more or less took turns by the end and in the playoffs? How could either of them be happy with that?

With both of them on the power play in the playoffs, the Sharks scored 17.93 goals per hour.

For reference, the Boston Bruins, who largely made it to the Finals because of their power play, scored 12.64 goals per hour.

The coaching staff are a bunch of incompetent morons who didn't always play them together, but when they played together on the PP, they were always dominant. Even in the regular season, the two of them together scored 10.1 goals per hour. The only regular season team who scored more than 10.1 goals per hour was Tampa Bay.

 

[Patty Ice]

Aside from a couple of Russian prospects what else do the Sharks have? Their draft pick pool has been raided, they have an aging core, and no money left to sign free agents. Brutal times ahead indeed.

I wouldn't say it was raided. Josh Norris and Balcers are gone but they weren't blue chippers or anything their prospect pool cannot replace. As you mentioned, they have C+C Scoring Factory but they also have Dylan Gambrell and Noah Gregor as possible secondary talent. On defense, Merkley could be be a revelation but of course there is risk with him but they also have a solid prospect in Ferraro.

The aging core narrative is becoming tired. Couture, Karlsson, and Kane are all prime aged. Hertl, Meier, and LaBanc haven't hit theirs. Burns is only getting better with age. So you have Pavelski and Thornton as the aging core. Seems like they are outnumbered but the real core.

And as been addressed numerous times in multiple threads of the trade forum, the Sharks have the movable contracts and the personnel to replace them. Let me know when these dark times show up exactly in San Jose because HF has been preaching it like some Doomsday preacher for over a decade now.

 

[Avelanche]

Am I looking at this wrong, 12 million to fill 7 more roster spots? Looks like the Sharks have a lot of work to fill out their roster.

it is hard to see them signing pavelski, thorton and meier but they do have a few desirable players with 1 year left.

 

[LGB51]

That contract is going to age poorly and everyone involved knows it but its what Karlsson was going to get regardless. For the next couple of years it should be fine ( if he has the time to heal up ) but down the line this is not going to be pretty . EK is already struggling with injuries and this is not likely to change.

It seems like he always has struggled with injuries for at least the last several years. Offensive production aside, how in the world do you commit max term & $$ to a player that lately can only give you half a regular season, and 60% in the playoffs. The guy can't stay healthy. Great offensive D-Man but not great at D and always seems to be injured. Pretty big gamble.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Glen Sather must be consulting the Sharks these days.

 

[Sysreq]

With both of them on the power play in the playoffs, the Sharks scored 17.93 goals per hour.

For reference, the Boston Bruins, who largely made it to the Finals because of their power play, scored 12.64 goals per hour.

The coaching staff are a bunch of incompetent morons who didn't always play them together, but when they played together on the PP, they were always dominant. Even in the regular season, the two of them together scored 10.1 goals per hour. The only regular season team who scored more than 10.1 goals per hour was Tampa Bay.

Save us Boughner, your our only hope!

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

It seems like he always has struggled with injuries for at least the last several years. Offensive production aside, how in the world do you commit max term & $$ to a player that lately can only give you half a regular season, and 60% in the playoffs. The guy can't stay healthy. Great offensive D-Man but not great at D and always seems to be injured. Pretty big gamble.

He got his foot broken by a puck and his Achilles sliced by a skate.

Outside of the groin last year what injury are you actually concerned about?

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

...

So... On paper it looks like San Jose has $12.5 mil in Cap space now to sign about $20-$25 mil of their forwards left...

Still have to sign:

- Pavelski
- Meier
- Lebanc
- Thornton
- Donskoi
- Nyquist (?)

I suppose Nyquist is certainly not getting another shot but how are they going to swing this?

They can let one of the other 5 walk. Thornton may have to take a team friendly deal if he still wants to be a Shark, Meier is the one you reserve the big bag for...

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It seems like he always has struggled with injuries for at least the last several years. Offensive production aside, how in the world do you commit max term & $$ to a player that lately can only give you half a regular season, and 60% in the playoffs. The guy can't stay healthy. Great offensive D-Man but not great at D and always seems to be injured. Pretty big gamble.

These two seasons are the only 2 where injuries have really impacted him and last year it was more grievance than anything else. The groin is a concern but it's being overblown.

 

[Avelanche]

It seems like he always has struggled with injuries for at least the last several years. Offensive production aside, how in the world do you commit max term & $$ to a player that lately can only give you half a regular season, and 60% in the playoffs. The guy can't stay healthy. Great offensive D-Man but not great at D and always seems to be injured. Pretty big gamble.

he's probably had morre full seasons then pietrangelo and what do you think he is going to get?

 

[Nanuuk]

I think San Jose may come to regret this day, but they do want to go for it next season.

 

[ole ole]

Can’t wait for all the other teams’ fans to talk about how thankful they are that they aren’t signing Erik Karlsson.

I wanted Karlsson. At 11.5 for 8 yrs. I'm thankful we didn't sign him.

 

[Multigrain]

Nearly a third of the payroll tied up in 3 dmen. This is going to be franchise crippling in a couple years when Karlsson and Burns decline. Vlasic has already started his. Aside from a couple of Russian prospects what else do the Sharks have? Their draft pick pool has been raided, they have an aging core, and no money left to sign free agents. Brutal times ahead indeed.

Do you see this going the way of the Dion Phaneuf contract down the road?

 

[Multigrain]

he's probably had morre full seasons then pietrangelo and what do you think he is going to get?

I think there had to be a few other teams that were willing to go with the term as well as money.
Otherwise it is a pretty bold move for the Sharks. Is there any NMC involved with the contract or not?