Shattenkirk and Free Agency

[Blues88]

Apologies if this topic is being discussed. Feel free to merge or close.

He's due, and I'm wondering what everyone would be happy with as far as AAV and term.

I want to steer the discussion more towards Shatty, because his tenure seems to be less certain that Schwartz. I'm of the opinion that we should prioritize signing him, even as Parayko emerges and presumably improves. I'm going to contradict myself a bit from a previous post, but if keeping Shattenkirk means one RHD has to play the offside, I'd be all for it.

He is a movable asset, but I'd be satisfied only if he returned a high caliber top 6 forward or a left handed version of himself. I think his absence creates a bigger hole than perhaps some realize. The PP in particular suffers, and he's our best offensive blueliner for sure.

What's your take on Kevin Shattenkirk?

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[Vladdy the Impaler]

Unfortunately, I don't think we can pay him the kind of money he'll be asking for. Too much $$$ tied up in the right side of our defense will hurt us long term. Plus we have Parayko emerging and that creates a log jam.

I love Shatty but Army will probably move him this offseason. But how much value does one year of UFA Shatty even have?

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Should be traded in the off-season. Not because I don't like Shattenkirk but he's going to get offered 7mil+ in FA but could also net is a pretty good package by trading him. I hate the whole "UFA in 2 years, lowers his value!!" BS other teams throw out. UFA status for players who are still playing at close to their peak doesn't drop their trade value as much as people around here think. Plus no one is ever right in proposals. Did anyone think Hamilton was getting traded for what he returned? No.

But with the way Parayko has been playing it makes Shattenkirk easily moveable. Whether or not Parayko will be able to replace Shatty right away shouldn't be an issue. We should be looking a few seasons ahead when it will be obvious that Parayko is ready for it. Shatty will certainly want term, so are we really going to give him 5+ years while having all of Petro, Shatty, and Parayko down the right side? Sure we could probably trade off JBo and move one of them to their off-side but do we really want that? I love Shatty and would love to keep him but he's just a luxury to have.

 

[KirkOut]

I think they should try to resign him unless they can get a great player back in a trade. Shattenkirk is a great player and I'd rather keep him if it means shelling out some dough than trade him in another Oshie or Perron type trade

 

[Blues88]

Should be traded in the off-season. Not because I don't like Shattenkirk but he's going to get offered 7mil+ in FA but could also net is a pretty good package by trading him. I hate the whole "UFA in 2 years, lowers his value!!" BS other teams throw out. UFA status for players who are still playing at close to their peak doesn't drop their trade value as much as people around here think. Plus no one is ever right in proposals. Did anyone think Hamilton was getting traded for what he returned? No.

But with the way Parayko has been playing it makes Shattenkirk easily moveable. Whether or not Parayko will be able to replace Shatty right away shouldn't be an issue. We should be looking a few seasons ahead when it will be obvious that Parayko is ready for it. Shatty will certainly want term, so are we really going to give him 5+ years while having all of Petro, Shatty, and Parayko down the right side? Sure we could probably trade off JBo and move one of them to their off-side but do we really want that? I love Shatty and would love to keep him but he's just a luxury to have.

Very reasonable points but the bolded is a viewpoint I don't agree with. Shattenkirk is our scoring Dmen. He's the best PP player on the team (other than Tarasenko) and he's the only Dmen on the team that consistently creates offensive chances. Parayko is trending towards that, and Shatty has looked a bit rusty since returning, but saying his presence is a luxury is taking things too far for me. His offense and PP play is essential. Replacing it would/could/will be tough.

Understanding that his value is high league-wide and he may be asking for 6+ million, who would you like to see Shatty return? Let me add an addendum: assuming we part ways with Backes and keep Fabbri at wing, would something build around Nugent Hopkins be an acceptable return? The Oilers have a clearly defined need that Shatty fills. I could also see the Flyers as potential trading partners. Maybe something around Simmons + prospect?

 

[Oberyn]

It's a very tough decision for Armstrong. The biggest factor is how fast Parayko has acclimated to the NHL and what his contract demands will be after next season. I would try and go the Klingberg route with Parayko and extend him long term at a reasonable cap hit, but that would still be at least around 4.5-5M AAV. If Shattenkirk wants 7M, then our top 4 defense is going to be:

Pietrangelo - 6.5M AAV
Bouwmeester - 5.4M AAV
Shattenkirk - 7M AAV
Parayko - 4.5M AAV

Spending 23.4M on four defensemen is a lot, but I think it's something the Blues can work around, especially since they drive a lot of offense. Integrating Rattie and Barbashev over the next couple years on ELC/cheap contracts would help as well. Let Brouwer and Ott go this season, and Berglund after next season, and that's a lot of money freed up too.

 

[TheDizee]

trade him for a center in the offseason.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Bear in mind the cap could easily be increased, perhaps significantly, in two years compared to where it is now.

I'd be surprised if Shattenkirk was offered more than what Pietrangelo makes by the Blues, and I think he wouldn't demand more than that if he was offered a long-term deal.

The Blues have tons of salary coming off the books that year. They can easily afford to keep him, and they should make every effort to do just that. He's the best player in that group, and the youngest, and the most important to the team.

The best teams have superior transition play, and Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, and Parayko are our best three defensemen in that department. He's consistently been one of our best players in the playoffs, and he's a key to the success of our PP. I don't think he's expendable, or replaceable. Find a way to keep him. Play one of them on their off-side if necessary.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Should be traded in the off-season. Not because I don't like Shattenkirk but he's going to get offered 7mil+ in FA but could also net is a pretty good package by trading him. I hate the whole "UFA in 2 years, lowers his value!!" BS other teams throw out. UFA status for players who are still playing at close to their peak doesn't drop their trade value as much as people around here think. Plus no one is ever right in proposals. Did anyone think Hamilton was getting traded for what he returned? No.

But with the way Parayko has been playing it makes Shattenkirk easily moveable. Whether or not Parayko will be able to replace Shatty right away shouldn't be an issue. We should be looking a few seasons ahead when it will be obvious that Parayko is ready for it. Shatty will certainly want term, so are we really going to give him 5+ years while having all of Petro, Shatty, and Parayko down the right side? Sure we could probably trade off JBo and move one of them to their off-side but do we really want that? I love Shatty and would love to keep him but he's just a luxury to have.

This is the truth, Ruth. It's like people don't appreciate the leverage the "home team" has in UFA negotiations. They get first crack. They get to talk to Shatty and/or his agent way, way, way before anyone else does. If he does well, and the team does well, then he has every reason in the world to stay there. And after getting traded just a year prior, I think Shatty would be significantly less inclined to pick up and start over again somewhere else. It's not impossible, and again it depends a lot on how the team does, but it's not as big of a disadvantage as folks seem to make it out to be. That's not to say that UFA vs. RFA years don't mean anything, but I just think people attribute too much gravity to that. As if they're going to find someone of Shattenkirk's caliber with 8+ years on their contract or something. Idk, the whole "no way do we want Shattenkirk he only has 1.5 years left!!!11!!!" thing is played out.

 

[KirkOut]

This is the truth, Ruth. It's like people don't appreciate the leverage the "home team" has in UFA negotiations. They get first crack. They get to talk to Shatty and/or his agent way, way, way before anyone else does. If he does well, and the team does well, then he has every reason in the world to stay there. And after getting traded just a year prior, I think Shatty would be significantly less inclined to pick up and start over again somewhere else. It's not impossible, and again it depends a lot on how the team does, but it's not as big of a disadvantage as folks seem to make it out to be. That's not to say that UFA vs. RFA years don't mean anything, but I just think people attribute too much gravity to that. As if they're going to find someone of Shattenkirk's caliber with 8+ years on their contract or something. Idk, the whole "no way do we want Shattenkirk he only has 1.5 years left!!!11!!!" thing is played out.

Definitely agree and it's one of the most perplexing ideas that gets perpetuated on this site. Every year good but unspectacular players get 1st round pick+ at the deadline for a whopping 2-3 months of service. A good player whose contract will expire in the next couple years? May as well try trading Steve Ott for Connor McDavid, that has a better shot of being well received than Shattenkirk for an adequate package.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

This is the truth, Ruth. It's like people don't appreciate the leverage the "home team" has in UFA negotiations. They get first crack. They get to talk to Shatty and/or his agent way, way, way before anyone else does. If he does well, and the team does well, then he has every reason in the world to stay there. And after getting traded just a year prior, I think Shatty would be significantly less inclined to pick up and start over again somewhere else. It's not impossible, and again it depends a lot on how the team does, but it's not as big of a disadvantage as folks seem to make it out to be. That's not to say that UFA vs. RFA years don't mean anything, but I just think people attribute too much gravity to that. As if they're going to find someone of Shattenkirk's caliber with 8+ years on their contract or something. Idk, the whole "no way do we want Shattenkirk he only has 1.5 years left!!!11!!!" thing is played out.

In general I agree with this, except there are a couple teams (including Edmonton) where its harder to attract free agents or will cost them more. Maybe that changes now with evidence of some better decision making, coaching and less futility. But if they were trading for Shattenkirk I do think a shorter contract is a negative for them. (But no team should make that trade without having a pretty good idea what it would take to re-sign him, and his level of interest walking in.)

 

[BlueDream]

I'd keep him as well. In fact I'd make the pairings:

Pietrangelo-Parayko
Bouwmeester-Shattenkirk

I would re-sign Shattenkirk, and honestly I could see Parayko then making Pietrangelo expendable in three years or so as opposed to Shattenkirk. I'm not saying trade Petro, but I think Parayko's skill set is more likely to replace him than Shattenkirk in the future. But maybe we keep all three as long as possible, I'm just thinking out loud. I don't think we can afford to lose Shattenkirk's offense from the point anymore.

 

[Blues88]

Bear in mind the cap could easily be increased, perhaps significantly, in two years compared to where it is now.

I'd be surprised if Shattenkirk was offered more than what Pietrangelo makes by the Blues, and I think he wouldn't demand more than that if he was offered a long-term deal.

The Blues have tons of salary coming off the books that year. They can easily afford to keep him, and they should make every effort to do just that. He's the best player in that group, and the youngest, and the most important to the team.

The best teams have superior transition play, and Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, and Parayko are our best three defensemen in that department. He's consistently been one of our best players in the playoffs, and he's a key to the success of our PP. I don't think he's expendable, or replaceable. Find a way to keep him. Play one of them on their off-side if necessary.

Agreed. Especially the bolded. This isn't a luxury anymore, Dmen are critical to transition play.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

How many teams carry 2 guys of that caliber, let alone 3?

 

[EastonBlues22]

How many teams carry 2 guys of that caliber, let alone 3?

It's hard to acquire that many, much less afford them.

The fact that it's rare means that it's a distinct advantage that the Blues have over many of their competitors (assuming the coach uses them effectively). It's not something that should be taken for granted.

 

[shpongle falls]

I think we have to find a way to keep Shatty no matter what. If that means trading a guy like Jaybo to make it work financially then so be it. I'm a Jaybo fan for the record but I would have no problem if the Blues had to trade him.

 

[Blues88]

I'd keep him as well. In fact I'd make the pairings:

Pietrangelo-Parayko
Bouwmeester-Shattenkirk

I would re-sign Shattenkirk, and honestly I could see Parayko then making Pietrangelo expendable in three years or so as opposed to Shattenkirk. I'm not saying trade Petro, but I think Parayko's skill set is more likely to replace him than Shattenkirk in the future. But maybe we keep all three as long as possible, I'm just thinking out loud. I don't think we can afford to lose Shattenkirk's offense from the point anymore.

I can't see Parayko being that gifted, though he'll improve defensively and he's already pretty damn good at skating the puck out and making things happen. Doubt he makes Petro expendable though, that would be nuts. Nothing wrong to hope for it though...would be kind of a great problem to have vis a vis Rookie/Sophmore Pietrangelo > EJ.

How many teams carry 2 guys of that caliber, let alone 3?

Do you mean 2 gifted transition Dmen that contribute offensively?

Kings - Doughty/Muzzin
Hawks -Keith/Seabrook
Ducks - Vatanen/Fowler
Flames - Giordano/Brodie
Preds - Josi/Weber
Wild - Suter/Brodin/Spurgeon
Avs - Barrie/Johnson
Habs - Markov/Subban
Lightning - Hedman/Stralman

Those are the "sure bet" answers to what I presumed your question to be. Varying degrees of course, but all of the Dmen above contribute offensively and can skate the puck out of trouble. Those are all teams that have been regularly making the playoffs and many have made considerable noise after getting in. Every team would love to have what the Blues are on the verge of having, but it's not easy to cultivate. Parayko, if he continues to improve, basically pushes our D core into tops in the league conversation. The problem of course is the absolute deficiency on the other side. Bouw looks good this year but he's not a chance producer, Gunnar is basically a chance killer with the puck and suspect defensively. Edmundson is young but I'm pretty convinced he'll be a third pairing guy, serviceable second pairing at best. It's not a knock, he's just a defensive Dmen whose physical...something we need.

 

[EastonBlues22]

The Detroit dynasty always tried to have at least three good puck moving defensemen.

Coffey, Lidstrom, Chaisson/Fetisov, with Konstantinov

They worked in Murphy, Duschesne, Rafalski, Chelios, and Schneider over the years as guys dropped out. They even put Fedorov back there a good number of times because they realized how important that facet of the game was to winning. That franchise set the standard for successful transition/possession play in a time when it could no longer be taken for granted because strong system defense was exerting its influence for the first time (the neutral zone trap years).

It's no coincidence that the franchise stopped being a dominant force when it ran out of difference making defensemen. Their last Finals appearance was 08-09. They lost Chelios after 09-10, Rafalski after 10-11, and Lidstrom after 11-12 and they haven't been the same since (in spite of still having Datsyuk and Zetterberg at center).

 

[STL fan in MN]

To me, it's pretty obvious that one of the following two things will have to eventually happen. 1. One of Petro, Shatty or Parayko successfully transitions to the left side. Or 2. One of Petro, Shatty or Parayko is traded...probably Shatty.

We can say to "simply" transition one of the righties over to the left side, but that's easier said than done. Unless one of those 3 establishes himself as a legit LD option (and not just awkwardly plays LD for a few games before being put back on RD), then the Blues may be forced to trade one of the 3...most likely Shatty.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

To me, it's pretty obvious that one of the following two things will have to eventually happen. 1. One of Petro, Shatty or Parayko successfully transitions to the left side. Or 2. One of Petro, Shatty or Parayko is traded...probably Shatty.

We can say to "simply" transition one of the righties over to the left side, but that's easier said than done. Unless one of those 3 establishes himself as a legit LD option (and not just awkwardly plays LD for a few games before being put back on RD), then the Blues may be forced to trade one of the 3...most likely Shatty.

I sure hope Schmaltz is ready by then to quarterback the power play. Neither Petro or Parayko are capable.

 

[Oberyn]

I sure hope Schmaltz is ready by then to quarterback the power play. Neither Petro or Parayko are capable.

Petro and Parayko are fine quarterbacks if Steen isn't their partner. A great part about Shattenkirk on the PP is he has chemistry with Steen so the Blues can get away with him being on the point. When Steen is with Petro or Parayko, he tries to do too much and botches plays. Playing Petro and Parayko together works, but then Bouwmeester is on the second PP and nobody wants that.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I sure hope Schmaltz is ready by then to quarterback the power play. Neither Petro or Parayko are capable.

Neither are capable? They're not at Shatty's level on the PP but they're certainly capable. And Parayko has a whopping 19 games of NHL experience so he's bound to continue to improve.

As for Schmaltz, he's another righty but hopefully he is ready to play 3rd pairing RD minutes in a year or two. As of today, he's still fairly shaky defensively at the AHL level. He looks good offensively in the AHL though.

 

[542365]

The Blues should do everything necessary to keep him. It might be difficult to put one of them(Petro, Shatty, Parayko) on the left side as they've likely never(or rarely) been asked to play the left side. RHDs are usually in short supply, whereas LHDs are far more common, and thus have been forced to play the offside typically. The transition is much tougher on the offside, but all 3 of them skate so well that I think that issue can be minimized. The development of Vince Dunn might have something to do with our decision as well. That guy is one hell of an offensive Dman, and getting better and better defensively(watch his most recent game, you won't be disappointed) every game. Jake Walman's numbers are also out of this world, but I haven't watched him play, so I can't really judge him as a player. Two years might be a little quick to get them in, but if they're on track to be an NHLer and Parayko has improved as we hope, it could make Shatty a little more expendable, especially if it brings back a 1C. That's a long ways off though.

tl;dr Blues need to do everything to keep Shatty. If we lose/trade him, we have some prospects(and a young NHLer) that might lessen the sting a bit.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Neither are capable? They're not at Shatty's level on the PP but they're certainly capable. And Parayko has a whopping 19 games of NHL experience so he's bound to continue to improve.

As for Schmaltz, he's another righty but hopefully he is ready to play 3rd pairing RD minutes in a year or two. As of today, he's still fairly shaky defensively at the AHL level. He looks good offensively in the AHL though.

Let's be honest here.... Parayko is a shooter. It is very apparent. You haven't seen him game in and game out thread the needle as Shatty does from the moment he put the note on. You can pass or you can't. Petro is a veteran that doesn't have near the creativity or shot that Shatty commands respect for on the power play. He's a good passer, but he may/would be better served drifting in the slot where his stick skills may be of benefit. While Steen can QB....Shatty is the LONE defenseman that has the ability.

Long range Schmaltz may be our best right handed replacement. Did it well at North Dakota.

 

[Alklha]

The question about trading Shattenkirk isn't about money, we can afford his extension, it is about whether it is prudent to have so much money tied up in defense. I'd only consider moving him for a young centre, I'd rather have money invested in Shattenkirk than on a winger.

The decision comes next summer. If we sign him, then he will get a full NTC immediately and that limits our options. If we're looking to go down that road, then we need someone shifted to the left side this season to see how it works.