Nolan11
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- Mar 5, 2013
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Wilson has proven many times over he doesn't think the same way most of us do. If we could sign him for 6 x 6 I'd be happy. I just have a feeling it will be more.
Speculation: Sharks Roster Discussion Part III
- Thread starter Juxtaposer
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Wilson has proven many times over he doesn't think the same way most of us do. If we could sign him for 6 x 6 I'd be happy. I just have a feeling it will be more.
SactoShark
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OrrNumber4
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- Jul 25, 2002
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Two months vs. years and years of solid play?
I mean...I have to think that Vlasic would easily get $6 million/year over 6-7 years on the open market, especially with the dearth of options and the lack of top-endish defensemen overall. He doesn't exactly play a style that is going to fade with age and has a fairly impressive resume.
Moreover...if the Sharks lose Vlasic, that is a big blow to their competitiveness. Not as bad as Thornton's degradation or losing someone like Burns, but probably worse than losing a player like Pavelski or Couture. Heck, in this thread alone, people are worried about how Vlasic's drop in play over last year will translate into the playoffs.
If the Sharks intend to no longer compete, or, if they think Vlasic has passed his peak and is going to regress to the "non-elite" category, then they shouldn't sign him. If the Sharks intend to compete and believe Vlasic is a top-end, top-pairing defenseman at least for the near future, they have to sign him.
Lastly, when it comes to cap savings, slightly overpaying players generally isn't an issue. It is the deadweight (the Burishes, the Havlats, maybe the Boedkers); players making several times what they "worth" that are the biggest culprits.
Gilligans Island
Registered User
If you like at the top paid dmen, all, I believe, play significant PP time on their 1st units and/or have that offensive dimension to their game that justifies being paid over $6M AAV - whether as a high-end scorer (Burns) or as a PP QB.
Vlasic has never been able to demonstrate that level of offensive play so I don't think he can command over $6M AAV.
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2017/caphit/all/defense
Vlasic has never been able to demonstrate that level of offensive play so I don't think he can command over $6M AAV.
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2017/caphit/all/defense
For a fun experiment, here are the list of recent Sharks defensemen (most of which were maligned during these specific years) that have a higher CF% than Vlasic/Braun this year.
Vlasic 2016-2017: 47.5
Braun 2016-2017: 46.6
Polak 2015-2016: 49.8
Hannan 2014-2015: 47.9
Stuart 2013-2014: 51.5
Hannan 2013-2014: 50.1
Irwin 2013-2014: 50.5
Stuart 2012-2013: 47.8
White 2011-2012: 50.7
Wallin 2010-2011: 50.6
Huskins 2010-2011: 55.3
Murray 2010-2011: 52.3
Huskins 2009-2010: 50.5
Wallin 2009-2010: 50.8
And here are all defensemen who have had lower from the past 9 years:
Tennyson 2015-2016: 46.6
Hannan 2012-2013: 46.0
Murray 2011-2012: 46.7
Joslin 2009-2010: 45.4
Vlasic 2016-2017: 47.5
Braun 2016-2017: 46.6
Polak 2015-2016: 49.8
Hannan 2014-2015: 47.9
Stuart 2013-2014: 51.5
Hannan 2013-2014: 50.1
Irwin 2013-2014: 50.5
Stuart 2012-2013: 47.8
White 2011-2012: 50.7
Wallin 2010-2011: 50.6
Huskins 2010-2011: 55.3
Murray 2010-2011: 52.3
Huskins 2009-2010: 50.5
Wallin 2009-2010: 50.8
And here are all defensemen who have had lower from the past 9 years:
Tennyson 2015-2016: 46.6
Hannan 2012-2013: 46.0
Murray 2011-2012: 46.7
Joslin 2009-2010: 45.4
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OrrNumber4
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2002
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Were all those players facing the toughest competition all the time? What teammates were they playing with? What was their deployment like?
That's fine, I'm just concerned because Vlasic and Braun have faced the toughest competition in the league for years and they have never posted below 50.0, going all the way back to 2010-2011.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
What you're saying is that Vlasic and Braun have been worse in their role this year than players like Polak were in third pairing roles. And you're right to be concerned. Obviously they aren't worse players than Polak and the like but yeah, their numbers are bad.
Negatively Positive
Mr. Longevity
- Mar 2, 2011
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Even last year I felt Vlasic regressed a bit. There was a stretch where he looked downright mediocre. I don't know if nagging injuries have caught up to him or what but I'm not comfortable giving him too long a deal. I feel like he's peaked and his best days are behind him.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
OrrNumber4
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- Jul 25, 2002
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Not with Burns on the team.
If Thornton truly regresses, this team would be comparable to the SJ teams from 2011-2014...teams with solid complementary pieces, but needing another superstar-core piece (in goal or on defense) to get over the top...and that was with Thornton's cataclysmic postseason letdowns.
Burns doesn't look to be an underweight playoff performer. Jones is entering the (statistical) prime age for goaltenders; there is an outside chance he develops into a superstar goaltender, and in any case, he is certainly capable of a preternatural season or postseason ala Nabokov or even Niemi.
On top of that, a judicious transaction or two (say for Duchene or Tavares) gives the Sharks that extra weapon. Aside from that, the Sharks have a healthy cap and a strong prospect pool.
And that would not make any sense.
We have two superstar Dmen, Couture who has everything to be a good 1C, good or possibly elite no.1 goalie who are just entering his prime and good depth. Also Jumbo has played well last month or so and I think it is possible he has saved himself to be fresher on April. Pavs is also heating up and still on his prime. And under year ago we had the same key players and we were two wins away from the Stanley Cup even though we had injuries. And now we have more depth than last year.
But to be fair it is understandable to think like that when team has slumps and all. I did it on last season when our team had it's problems before new year.
Celly4Celebrini
pray
- Jul 10, 2010
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I'd trade some "core" pieces like Vlasic Braun Pavelski but I'm not moving a Couture or Burns
Groo
Registered User
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
I'm well aware of this unfortunately.
The Sharks have a healthy prospect pool in terms of middle-6 forwards and middle pairing defensemen. Which is obviously important. But now that Goldobin is gone I don't see anyone with a real chance to be a top-line player. Meier has a chance but he has to show a lot more upside for me to comfortably project him there.
If the Sharks managed to trade for a Duchene, that's a whole different story. Jones, Burns, and Duchene would be a good core of stars to move forward with, and we'd have the complimentary pieces in place. But as we've established I really don't see Duchene as realistically a possibility for Doug Wilson.
Firstly, Vlasic is no longer a superstar defenseman. He's been in decline since 2014, just like Couture. Couture is almost 30 so this "has everything to be a 1C" thing has to stop, he's already peaked and isn't going to be a true #1C. Pavelski is clearly exiting his prime; he's a great player but he's not in the middle of his prime.
For the last time, our depth is not nearly as important as our stars. And with the exception of Burns, our other four "star" skaters have taken a significant step back, never mind Braun, Ward, and Donskoi. Boedker isn't a player you can count on in the playoffs and our Carpenter/Meier/O'Regan/Labanc depth is useless if Haley and Tierney are going to play over them.
I'd look at trading Vlasic, Braun, and Couture. Pavelski is our captain and still our best forward at this point and should be kept. Vlasic won't be worth the giant contract someone will pay him so we should get value for him this summer. Couture is not a #1C on a contender and he's only going to get worse. Braun is clearly past his capability as a top-end shut-down defender and moving him would make room for Heed to play full time.
Obviously this is all wildly unrealistic and I don't expect any of it to happen, but I'm really despondent about this team's future if they don't do something drastic.
How is Heed in his own zone? Is he quick?
IMO Vlasic's "slide" is more pronounced because it is happening at the same time as Braun. I think Vlasic's career as an elite shutdown would be considerably lengthened if he is paired with a quick skater.
Lately, I have noticed that Braun isn't getting to loose pucks. He always seems to be tying the forward in any foot race. Comparing that to the Duck D last night who are all excellent skaters it made me wonder if Heed an option to replace Braun?
IMO Vlasic's "slide" is more pronounced because it is happening at the same time as Braun. I think Vlasic's career as an elite shutdown would be considerably lengthened if he is paired with a quick skater.
Lately, I have noticed that Braun isn't getting to loose pucks. He always seems to be tying the forward in any foot race. Comparing that to the Duck D last night who are all excellent skaters it made me wonder if Heed an option to replace Braun?
Vaasa
Registered User
Welcome to where I've been for the last 3 years.
But seriously, I agree that the Sharks have done a good job on bottom and middle depth. It's not the best, but at least there is enough players there that probably most of a bottom-9 could be filled out with good players. So they have the complementary players to compete. But they have no future stars at all. As you said, Goldobin was the last prospect they had who had the potential (whatever your position is on his chance of making that potential).
Without those future stars, they will continue as a middle-of-the-pack type team in the Pacific IMO. Never bad enough to get a high-draft pick. Never good enough to seriously compete for even the conference championship. But if they consider moving some players this year at the draft, they might be able to pick up some riskier high-upside players and prospects. I doubt they could get a Duchene, although that would the best scenario.
Players I would consider moving after this season are: Vlasic, Braun, Couture, Ward, and Martin. I would add Boedker, Dillon, and Schlemko to that list depending on other moves and who gets taken in the expansion draft.
I want to see what happens in the playoffs. If they make another deep run, I'll give these guys another kick at the can.
Although the team's possession numbers are strong, this team plays too slow, has zero transition game, and simply does not generate enough high danger chances (or decent shots for that matter). Maybe they can grind out the playoffs all LA like, but I think speedy teams will wait out the cycle, especially with a less effective Thornton, and counter. I'm afraid Calgary will eat this team alive.
I don't blame DW or the coaches. Nobody on this team is scoring and all the forwards simply play the puck to the point or over-pass. I cannot believe that is DeBoer's only strategy. I look at the powerplay as 100% on the players. Teams did not figure out a system that has worked for years. The players refuse to execute at a high pace and I see the same problem on 5 on 5 play.
Although the team's possession numbers are strong, this team plays too slow, has zero transition game, and simply does not generate enough high danger chances (or decent shots for that matter). Maybe they can grind out the playoffs all LA like, but I think speedy teams will wait out the cycle, especially with a less effective Thornton, and counter. I'm afraid Calgary will eat this team alive.
I don't blame DW or the coaches. Nobody on this team is scoring and all the forwards simply play the puck to the point or over-pass. I cannot believe that is DeBoer's only strategy. I look at the powerplay as 100% on the players. Teams did not figure out a system that has worked for years. The players refuse to execute at a high pace and I see the same problem on 5 on 5 play.
This team plays such a boring game that is really easy to figure out. Dump it in. retrieve the puck. Get it to the point and hope for a tip. There are no more skilled plays anymore. I hope this isn't deboers system because if it is, it needs to change asap. With the same talent from last year we have to play better than what I saw the last few weeks.
PacificOceanPotion
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- Jun 19, 2009
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Puttin my Aaron Rodgers hat on here...R-E-L-A-X....relax. This team wont go quiet in any series we play this coming playoffs. Although im mildly concerned with the injuries and team play recently, you dont backup a finals appearance with another solid overall 90+point season if youre a crap team with no drive or motivation. Just my take.
Vaasa
Registered User
It's not DeBoer's system. It's the same system TMac had as well. Dump and chase. Lot's of shots from the perimeter and point. Lots of board work. Basic North-South hockey with no real finesse play.
The only real difference between the two is because of Burns' improved play the offense moves through him AND JT when it used to through just JT.
hohosaregood
Banned
- Sep 1, 2011
- 32,454
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There was this zone entry they did last year where they had a stationary guy at the blue line that they'd give the puck to while the other two guys would go into the zone at full speed then the blue line guy would pass it back. They don't do that anymore.
Internazionale
Registered User
We better walk away from Jumbo Joe like the plague at season's end. I expect some big changes if the playoffs go to ****.
Sideshow Raheem
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- Dec 22, 2015
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Hey good thing they gave up their only prospect with any chance of becoming an elite forward for a 30-year-old third line rental though, right guys?
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