OT: Severe Weather Discussion II

[BMOK33]

The models all shifted the storm north, looks like we are getting dumped on tomorrow night. 5-11 inches in Westchester County.

I would wait to see what the stuff coming in tonight shows but that was quite a shift on some of the afternoon runs.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Newsday now calling for 11-13in in nassau

 

[Bones45]

crazy how the totals have amped up over 48hrs.

 

[TeamKidd]

just some minor slop tonight if anything. tomorrow is the main event...

 

[PWJunior]

Damnit, thought we weren't getting much. f*** this weather.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

This one will be the mother load...

 

[Riseonfire]

Tomorrow is the Psat/Sat for the kiddies..... lol lovely.

 

[xECK29x]

Dark Sky was right!

 

[IslesFanatic]

so much for our hs baseball season.......

 

[Riseonfire]

any experts wanna weigh in on the Manhattan projections?

 

[Tres Peleches]

The ONLY thing I'm really worried about is sleet mixing in. That becomes much more likely the further east you go.

There's a part of the atmosphere which is right around freezing above the surface on some of the models. If these warmer temps aloft verify, sleet will mix in and hold down totals. Where it stays all snow, however, surface temps will be much colder than past storms which should help accumulations, potentially even on roads.

Waiting for 12z Euro for an update, but I'm leaning 7-14 for much of the Island

 

[Bones45]

The ONLY thing I'm really worried about is sleet mixing in. That becomes much more likely the further east you go.

There's a part of the atmosphere which is right around freezing above the surface on some of the models. If these warmer temps aloft verify, sleet will mix in and hold down totals. Where it stays all snow, however, surface temps will be much colder than past storms which should help accumulations, potentially even on roads.

Waiting for 12z Euro for an update, but I'm leaning 7-14 for much of the Island

f***

 

[The Crypto Guy]

 

[TeamKidd]

The ONLY thing I'm really worried about is sleet mixing in. That becomes much more likely the further east you go.

There's a part of the atmosphere which is right around freezing above the surface on some of the models. If these warmer temps aloft verify, sleet will mix in and hold down totals. Where it stays all snow, however, surface temps will be much colder than past storms which should help accumulations, potentially even on roads.

Waiting for 12z Euro for an update, but I'm leaning 7-14 for much of the Island

agreed.

models all +/- around a foot for the island. given time of year (sun angle, slush accumulations) and sleet potential, might be less. some models signaling a very heavy burst of snow late afternoon (3-7pm ish). traffic very messy at that point.

definitely colder than last storms so less worried of the 3 inch slushy mess scenario we had last time.

 

[wingnutks]

The biggest problem with this storm is going to be perception. If we get 1', 3 hours after if snows it wont look or feel like a foot. If we get marginal rates over a long duration it wont be nearly as bad as high rates over a shorter duration. Everything is against high snow totals this time of year. Ratios, temps, sfc temps, sun angle... its also going to be a daytime snow, instead of overnight.

 

[Bones45]

I hope the LIRR shuts down at 9pm so all the fans who took the train to the game are now stuck in BK for the storm.

Is that wrong?

 

[Riseonfire]

I hope the LIRR shuts down at 9pm so all the fans who took the train to the game are now stuck in BK for the storm.

Is that wrong?

lol that'd be funny.

 

[nycole]

I am going to the game tonight and getting drunk because of tomorrow's epic snow storm. The last time I did that, it didn't snow and I had to go in to work late and hungover.

 

[Bones45]

I am going to the game tonight and getting drunk because of tomorrow's epic snow storm. The last time I did that, it didn't snow and I had to go in to work late and hungover.

If there's no pics, it didn't happen.

 

[periferal]

I hope the LIRR shuts down at 9pm so all the fans who took the train to the game are now stuck in BK for the storm.

Well since the players use the train to commute I think you just sealed Tavares leaving the Isles.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Probably like an inch+ on the ground but my street is pretty clean.

It has stopped snowing here for a little bit but I know more is coming.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Hope everyone is ok after the storm last night... not surprised in came in two waves (morning and nighttime) though I though the 2nd wave would be in a bit earlier... still, some insane rates of 4-5" per hour in spots...

Ended up with a final snow depth of about 12" this morning, but with compaction and a bit of melting, probably had closer to 14" I'd imagine.

 

[PWJunior]

This better be the last storm of the season, it also needs to start warming up too.

 

[Riseonfire]

This better be the last storm of the season, it also needs to start warming up too.

If by 'last', you mean Sunday, then sure!

 

[Glory Days]

If by 'last', you mean Sunday, then sure!

No more snow. I'm done shoveling. The next one can just melt.