Pre-Game Talk: SENS in the (US) Capital, Wed. 7:00 pm on SportsNet

[Micklebot]

And just to nitpick, Sens are 15th in P% right now.

Tied for 15th with two teams that hold the tie breaker between us, which was his point.

 

[jbeck5]

Ok, but this whole line of discussion was started by you claiming we won games just fine with Lalime getting ~.905 sv% in response to me saying no coach can overcome a sub 900 sv%.

My response was just highlighting that we had a stronger overall roster back then; Neither Stone nor Hoffman has ever finished top 20 in scoring, Alfredsson and Hossa were both doing during the period in question and that doesn't even account for guys like Havlat. The reality is, Ottawa didn't overcome terrible goaltending, they overcame league average goaltending, with a deeper roster.

But aside from that, I'm specifically talking about the coach. He can't take a good team, and overcome terrible goaltending. Yeah, if we had Malkin and Crosby down the middle, maybe there's a chance, but we aren't an elite team minus goaltending, we're a middle of the pack team when we have good goaltending. Coaching won't fix that.

There are no certainties in terms of how to build a team, but this team isn't built to overcome the goaltending we're getting. Heck, even the Pens are having a hard time overcoming similarly terrible goaltending and if any team has the talent to outscore their problems in net it's them.

Then we need to start acquiring better players so that we can make the playoffs as a strong team if our goalie plays below average. Easier said than done, but it's been a very long time since we had a very good plus/minus team. Teams usually go through cycles. We've been poor to average for about a decade now. Eventually we should be due to collect a good roster of players that can be a top team? When is our turn?

 

[Alex1234]

Sens are on a 0-3-1 losing streak

You're not going to harp on this all season, are you?

Thing is every team get OTLs, and at the end of the season it all balances out around ~10-12 OTL per team. Maybe the Sens have gotten more of those OTL in the first 20 games of the season than they will for the rest of the way (wouldn't be the first time I see a team do that). What is important is the W/L column, and so far they are 8-6 (3 straight regulation losses though, which is not a good thing)



Yeah a 0-3-1 stretch pretty much scraps a good beginning of the season because we are only at 20 games played, so it has a lot of impact rather than if we were at 60 games played. Let's just hope that they don't have many stretches like that this season.

And just to nitpick, Sens are 15th in P% right now.

NHL.com - Stats

Well as we speak nhl.com has them at 17th because of their win column vs CAR and BOS wich is the tie break I think

 

[Micklebot]

Then we need to start acquiring better players so that we can make the playoffs as a strong team if our goalie plays below average. Easier said than done, but it's been a very long time since we had a very good plus/minus team. Teams usually go through cycles. We've been poor to average for about a decade now. Eventually we should be due to collect a good roster of players that can be a top team? When is our turn?

So you're suggesting we go get ourselves a Malkin and Crosby (well, if Karlsson returns to form, just one I guess)? Because they are struggling to keep a playoff spot with similar goaltending.

What I'm saying is we need better goaltending. No team should be expected to be a playoff team with sub a 900 Sv%. Fix that by bringing us up to the league average of .911, and we've allowed 8 fewer goals, which probably amounts to 2 or 3 points at this stage, which would vault us to inside the top 10 in pts%. Think about that, two shootout wins instead of loses, or two OT wins instead of OT/SO loses, or one Regulation win instead of a Reg loss and our Win% is .600 right now.

This doesn't address how we've played the last few games, but in my experience, playing in front of a leaky goaltender is deflating to a team. Maybe better goaltending not only results in fewer goals, but stronger overall performances too.

 

[Alex1234]

I don't care how they count wins and losses but to make the playoffs they might need around 98 points. Right now they are on pace for 90.2 points.

I remember hearing on TSN 1200 the average of the last 5 years is 95pts I think
Your point stands though we are on pace for not enough

 

[jbeck5]

So you're suggesting we go get ourselves a Malkin and Crosby (well, if Karlsson returns to form, just one I guess)? Because they are struggling to keep a playoff spot with similar goaltending.

What I'm saying is we need better goaltending. No team should be expected to be a playoff team with sub a 900 Sv%. Fix that by bringing us up to the league average of .911, and we've allowed 8 fewer goals, which probably amounts to 2 or 3 points at this stage, which would vault us to inside the top 10 in pts%. Think about that, two shootout wins instead of loses, or two OT wins instead of OT/SO loses, or one Regulation win instead of a Reg loss and our Win% is .600 right now.

This doesn't address how we've played the last few games, but in my experience, playing in front of a leaky goaltender is deflating to a team. Maybe better goaltending not only results in fewer goals, but stronger overall performances too.

I honestly think im arguing with myself here. And i mean that as an insult to myself. I agree with everything you said. Our goaltending has been crap and you'd have to go back to the early 90s to find teams successful with andy's numbers for goaltending.

I think i'm just venting my frustrations of never actually seeming to make strides towards being a better team. It seems like every year we make any time of improvements, its followed by a crap year. It's like this organization has no clue on how to actually slowly improve. You see many other teams acquire young talent, people say they will be good soon, and they eventually are, and keep making the playoffs. Then there's us who seems content going up and down bopping around the wild card spot year in year out.

I know we were spoiled by having a good team for a long time a decade to two decades ago...but at least that team made obvious strides of wanting to improve. They would keep adding to the roster. It wasn't one guy in one guy out equal results.

We can identify the same holes in our roster year in year out and they never get filled. When they attempt to fill them, they overpay like crazy where fans of literally every other team laugh at us.

I just miss steady signs of improvement until you're a lock for the playoffs.

 

[BondraTime]

I honestly think im arguing with myself here. And i mean that as an insult to myself. I agree with everything you said. Our goaltending has been crap and you'd have to go back to the early 90s to find teams successful with andy's numbers for goaltending.

I think i'm just venting my frustrations of never actually seeming to make strides towards being a better team. It seems like every year we make any time of improvements, its followed by a crap year. It's like this organization has no clue on how to actually slowly improve. You see many other teams acquire young talent, people say they will be good soon, and they eventually are, and keep making the playoffs. Then there's us who seems content going up and down bopping around the wild card spot year in year out.

I know we were spoiled by having a good team for a long time a decade to two decades ago...but at least that team made obvious strides of wanting to improve. They would keep adding to the roster. It wasn't one guy in one guy out equal results.

We can identify the same holes in our roster year in year out and they never get filled. When they attempt to fill them, they overpay like crazy where fans of literally every other team laugh at us.

I just miss steady signs of improvement until you're a lock for the playoffs.

Can't expect much when your favorite team loses it's 2nd/3rd best Dman for nothing and doesn't seem to attempt to fix the obvious hole in the offseason. We went the cheap way of promoting from within and signing a bottom tier UFA defenseman.I thought the Oduya signing was a great depth move, but Methot wasn't a depth defenseman.

It is extremely hard to be a competitive team year in year out when you are unable to do what you want/need to do because of money. Reality is, as much as it pains me to say, Ottawa is probably in the worst position in the league financially and budget wise, to be able to give a player like Karlsson what he deserves.

With him making 12, how many corners are we going to need to cut? We are already cutting corners with pretty much every move we make.

 

[Karl Prime]

I remember some years with lalime barely hovering over .900 but our team was able to score to win the game and fight for Presidents trophies and division titles.

.905, .903, and .905 were 3 of lalimes seasons. We were a 100-110 point team and didn't have a superstar forward. Alfie had yet to become a top player in the league and hossa was a ~60 point winger like stone. You can have an inferior team with a proper system.

There was nothing inferior about those early 2000s Sens, talent-wise.

 

[Karl Prime]

Micklebot is right that goaltending is the biggest issue right now. Teams get affected when their goalie isn't making the timely saves.

 

[jbeck5]

Micklebot is right that goaltending is the biggest issue right now. Teams get affected when their goalie isn't making the timely saves.

I agree for sure. I'm just tired of having a team that we need amazing goaltending to be fairly average and just squeak in the playoffs.

It would be nice to have a team that routinely controls play and outshoots and outscores its opponent with some form of regularity.

 

[NyQuil]

It would be nice to have a team that routinely controls play and outshoots and outscores its opponent with some form of regularity.

I think that's the problem.

You can make all kinds of statements about bad luck, bounces, untimely goaltending, or whatever, and they may well be true.

But the only way to put a W up sooner rather than later is to minimize those effects by controlling as much as you can.

We haven't controlled a game from beginning to end, win or lose, very often this season.

 

[Xspyrit]

Tied for 15th with two teams that hold the tie breaker between us, which was his point.

oh oh lol anyway, standings watch after 20 games is a bit premature IMO. Tie-breaks and stuff

I think that's the problem.

You can make all kinds of statements about bad luck, bounces, untimely goaltending, or whatever, and they may well be true.

But the only way to put a W up sooner rather than later is to minimize those effects by controlling as much as you can.

We haven't controlled a game from beginning to end, win or lose, very often this season.

Well, the first 5 games without Karlsson.

 

[Viletho]

I agree for sure. I'm just tired of having a team that we need amazing goaltending to be fairly average and just squeak in the playoffs.

It would be nice to have a team that routinely controls play and outshoots and outscores its opponent with some form of regularity.

I agree with that.. you cannot rely on goaltending alone to make the exceptional save left and right.. But you need them to at least, not allow 1 bad goal a game.. and you need them to make one of those timely save once in a while.

That 4th goal... knowing that we scored two... change the whole finish of the game.. If that goal is stopped.. then it is 3-2.. The final 2 minutes of the game without the goalie would have been way more intense. but at 4-2.. do you really believe it will happen? One in a while yes.. Like vs NJ.. but that's very rare..

At this point, just middle of the pack goalie would make a great difference.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Well as we speak nhl.com has them at 17th because of their win column vs CAR and BOS wich is the tie break I think

Well as we speak nhl.com has them at 15th, on Points Percentage because of their fewer losses in regulation than Boston & Carolina.

Points Percentage is basically a points earned in number of games played........ so you can compare teams records vs each other, regardless on the different number of games played by each team.

It's a more accurate comparison than just looking at the points standings.

NHL.com - Stats

 

[Micklebot]

Well as we speak nhl.com has them at 15th, on Points Percentage because of their fewer losses in regulation than Boston & Carolina.

Points Percentage is basically a points earned in number of games played........ so you can compare teams records vs each other, regardless on the different number of games played by each team.

It's a more accurate comparison than just looking at the points standings.

NHL.com - Stats

Look at the standings, we're behind both because the first tie breaker is ROW, not regulation losses. Pts% is the same. The order on their stats page doesn't really matter.

1. If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order: The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season. NOTE: In standings a victory in a shootout counts as one goal for, while a shootout loss counts as one goal against.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I LOve how some people are like "i think we're in trouble" and then some posters will come up with a stat that show we're actually not the absolute worst in the NHL at a thing and they're like "see we're actually not in trouble and we are really good". Who cares if were 15th in p%.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

We do need our goalies to play better....but part of that are the defensemen and forwards in front of them, too. Guys are being really passive in front of the net and at the points. Not moving the puck well...being indecisive. Most of the team looks like it has lost confidence.

 

[MarkStone]

We do need our goalies to play better....but part of that are the defensemen and forwards in front of them, too. Guys are being really passive in front of the net and at the points. Not moving the puck well...being indecisive. Most of the team looks like it has lost confidence.

Yeah watching the highlights again the next day and on a couple of Washington's goals the defencemen + forwards at times looked like instructors analyzing shooting mechanics rather than trying to actually negate scoring chances.

 

[Alex1234]

Well as we speak nhl.com has them at 15th, on Points Percentage because of their fewer losses in regulation than Boston & Carolina.

Points Percentage is basically a points earned in number of games played........ so you can compare teams records vs each other, regardless on the different number of games played by each team.

It's a more accurate comparison than just looking at the points standings.

NHL.com - Stats

We all know what P% is buddy
Were talking tie breaker here
It is ROW

I dont know what to tell you more then that

They are behind CAR and BOS

 

[BatherSeason]

Sens are on a 0-3-1 losing streak

I have never in my life heard of anyone refer to a losing streak that way. I guess this is the new NHL

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Look at the standings, we're behind both because the first tie breaker is ROW, not regulation losses. Pts% is the same. The order on their stats page doesn't really matter.

Again, all I'm saying, just looking at the standings is not enough, if you're trying to compare one teams' record, vs another teams' record, if they've played a different number of games, at any point during the season.

Points Percentage is just a more accurate way of comparison, during the season.

For example, today at NHL.com the Detriot Red Wings sit in third place (Playoff Spot) in the Atlantic division, with 23 points, after 22 games played ...... while the Senators, after 20 games, sit way down below 5 teams (out of a Wild Card PO spot)

NHL Hockey Standings

However, the Senators (0.550 P%) have better record than the Wings (0.523 P%)


NHL.com - Stats


So some people, who only look at the standings, might think that the Wings are playing better than the Senators, because they sit in a Play off spot, while the Senators are not even in a Wild Card PO spot.

All the tie breakers are important, at the end of the season, and some are used (ROW) during the season to set the points standings, but to compare two or more teams, that have played a different number of games, Points Percentage is the fairest comparison, and give a better perspective than just a quick glance at the Standings.


All other Major Leagues in North America use Winning Percentage to set their Standings during the season, as none of them use a "points" system like the NHL does. Because the NHL gives (loser) points for non-regulation losses, they made the switch to Points Percentage (from Winning percentage) when they eliminated Ties after the lockout in 2005.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

View attachment 84695

We all know what P% is buddy
Were talking tie breaker here
It is ROW

I dont know what to tell you more then that

They are behind CAR and BOS

I guess I did not explain it in a way that you could understand what I was trying to say.

Points Percentage is a fairer comparison of a teams "record" to another teams "record" when they've played a different number of games during the season.

I'm more than aware of the various tie breaking steps used at the end of the season, to rank the teams, after they've played the same number of games ....... and for the points standings during the season, yes ROW is used.

All I'm pointing out is that if you wanted a clearer picture, during the season, points percentage is a better tool than the points standings.


I'll give you an example.

If you look at todays Overall (League) standings, the Vegas Golden Knights sit in 8th spot overall, with 27 points, after 20 games played.

NHL Hockey Standings
(click on "League")




However, the Vegas Golden Knights have 4th best record (0.675 P%) in the NHL, because they've accumulated a higher percentage of points in their 20 games than a number of teams above them in the points standings (Overall), who've all played more games than them.

NHL.com - Stats

 

[Alex1234]

I guess I did not explain it in a way that you could understand what I was trying to say.

Points Percentage is a fairer comparison of a teams "record" to another teams "record" when they've played a different number of games during the season.

I'm more than aware of the various tie breaking steps used at the end of the season, to rank the teams, after they've played the same number of games ....... and for the points standings during the season, yes ROW is used.

All I'm pointing out is that if you wanted a clearer picture, during the season, points percentage is a better tool than the points standings.


I'll give you an example.

If you look at todays Overall (League) standings, the Vegas Golden Knights sit in 8th spot overall, with 27 points, after 20 games played.

NHL Hockey Standings
(click on "League")




However, the Vegas Golden Knights have 4th best record (0.675 P%) in the NHL, because they've accumulated a higher percentage of points in their 20 games than a number of teams above them in the points standings (Overall), who've all played more games than them.

NHL.com - Stats

All Im saying is OTT CAR and BOS have the same Points % ,the same number of points and the same number of game played but Ott is behind the other 2 because the 1st tie break is ROW
Car and BOS with 8 in the ROW column and OTT with 7

So they are behind CAR and BOS and sitting in 17th place in the league standings in points %

 

[Micklebot]

I guess I did not explain it in a way that you could understand what I was trying to say.

Points Percentage is a fairer comparison of a teams "record" to another teams "record" when they've played a different number of games during the season.

I'm more than aware of the various tie breaking steps used at the end of the season, to rank the teams, after they've played the same number of games ....... and for the points standings during the season, yes ROW is used.

All I'm pointing out is that if you wanted a clearer picture, during the season, points percentage is a better tool than the points standings.


I'll give you an example.

If you look at todays Overall (League) standings, the Vegas Golden Knights sit in 8th spot overall, with 27 points, after 20 games played.

NHL Hockey Standings
(click on "League")




However, the Vegas Golden Knights have 4th best record (0.675 P%) in the NHL, because they've accumulated a higher percentage of points in their 20 games than a number of teams above them in the points standings (Overall), who've all played more games than them.

NHL.com - Stats

Ok, but this all started when somebody said they were 17th league wide in Pts% because Carolina and Boston, who both had the same games played and pts% held the tie breaker, to which you posted they were 15th because the stats page had Ottawa listed ahead of them. They aren't 15th in the league because of tie breakers. Carolina and Boston both hold the tie breaker, so Boston would get the divisional spot, and Carolina would get the 1st wild card spot ahead of us.

Now, it's all well and good to say we have a better pts% than Detroit, Pens, NYR, and Washington, so our games in hand should be enough to regain that final wildcard spot when it's all said and done, but nobody was just looking at pts in the standings so I'm not sure why you're lecturing them on using Pts% instead. They are just stating that even in Pts%, we are 17th, not 15th league wide. The stats page applies incorrect tie breaking procedures.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

All Im saying is OTT CAR and BOS have the same Points % ,the same number of points and the same number of game played but Ott is behind the other 2 because the 1st tie break is ROW
Car and BOS with 8 in the ROW column and OTT with 7

So they are behind CAR and BOS and sitting in 17th place in the league standings in points %

Yes you're correct, and because all three teams have played the exact same number of games (as of today) the tie breakers in the "points standings" are applicable, in this example .............
However, if you click on this link ( to NHL.com Points% ranking) you'll see Ottawa listed at 15 overall (P% not just points) based on fewer losses in regulation.
NHL.com - Stats

We're both correct on our points ( pun not intended) ....... P% is a comparison tool, that's all, and does not factor into any tie breaking scenario in the official points standings




Points Standings = NHL.com - Stats
Ottawa now 23rd overall



Points Percentage Comparison = NHL.com - Stats
Ottawa now 15th (ahead of Boston and Carolina)