Prospect Info: Senators Prospect Talk 2016-2017

[MaxTheLimit]

A guy drafted at #11 that becomes a regular NHL player is not a bust in my books. If he becomes a 2nd line center ~55 pts is a solid projection and a therefore was a great pick.

Where would folks say is the cut off for 'bust'?
At #6 overall Zibanejad is likely to peak around 55-60pts. Is that a bust?
In my opinion he's not a bust. He'll probably never be a break out super star, but he seems like he's going to be a quality #2C to me.

Where do things stand on Lazar? he's a 17th overall pick. He still has time to develop, but what if he only ever becomes a 15 goal 30 point guy? Is that a bust? There is usually a considerable drop off from to first 15 of the first round in the draft to the following 15. Should the Sens be happy if he turns out to be a solid #3LW?

 

[Vaclav Varada]

There's a pretty big difference between a bust and a disappointment. I don't think anyone playing on the 3rd line and up can be classified as a bust.

If they were expected to be a top line player and end up as a third liner, thats a disappointment. But not a bust. IMO.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

There's a pretty big difference between a bust and a disappointment. I don't think anyone playing on the 3rd line and up can be classified as a bust.

If they were expected to be a top line player and end up as a third liner, thats a disappointment. But not a bust. IMO.

Okay. Well. A dissapointment is a bust. By definition no?

Daigle was. A bust. Because he was a huge dissapointment. Stefan. Massive dissapointment. Therefore bust. If you expect someone to be a first liner. And they become a third liner. That's a huge dissapointment. A bust.

 

[HousePerseus]

Man, I just watched the Canada v. Sweden game and thought that Dahlen was electric. Very impressed with him overall.

In the first, he won a few puck battles in the offensive end and really asserted himself in the game. Great play on his goal, he made a good one-touch pass in the neutral zone and trailed the play, and one-timed it in. I liked a few plays me made along the boards in his own end to get the puck out of his zone and made a nice shot block. He had a chance in the third that he shot off the crossbar.

He clearly has some high-end skill. I'm really excited to watch more of him. He has a quiet game but seems to always be in the right place.

 

[Vaclav Varada]

Okay. Well. A dissapointment is a bust. By definition no?

Daigle was. A bust. Because he was a huge dissapointment. Stefan. Massive dissapointment. Therefore bust. If you expect someone to be a first liner. And they become a third liner. That's a huge dissapointment. A bust.

I disagree. Daigle was the biggest disappointment in NHL draft history, but he put up a few 50 point seasons. He was a major disappointment. Huge. Not a bust tho.

Busts are guys like AJ Thelen, Marek Schwarz, Hugh Jessiman, Wade Belak, Jamie Lundmark, etc.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Well that's why i ask. For me a bust is someone who ISN'T NEAR what he was projected to be.

If he was to become an 3rd liner, i would be let down a little, but that's not a bust for me. He's just under what I thought he would become.

We all have different perspective of what a bust is. That's why a ask him what would be a bust regarding Brown.

From what I understand, Brown doesn't really have a natural physical component to his game. Whether that was from lack of muscle or personality, I don't know. That lack of physical grinder play could mean he is a top 6 guy or career AHLer.

I'll say it this way....could you see a poor man's Spezza on any third line in the NHL? Skill guys like that aren't effective playing with the Neils of the world. They need reasonably skilled players with them to ensure their playmaking isn't wasted.

 

[Micklebot]

Okay. Well. A dissapointment is a bust. By definition no?

Daigle was. A bust. Because he was a huge dissapointment. Stefan. Massive dissapointment. Therefore bust. If you expect someone to be a first liner. And they become a third liner. That's a huge dissapointment. A bust.

I guess, but that's all reliant on your having realistic expectations. If your expectations are unrealistic, your the bust, not the third liner.

 

[Pavlikovsky]

I disagree. Daigle was the biggest disappointment in NHL draft history, but he put up a few 50 point seasons. He was a major disappointment. Huge. Not a bust tho.

Busts are guys like AJ Thelen, Marek Schwarz, Hugh Jessiman, Wade Belak, Jamie Lundmark, etc.

Two words, Patrik Stefan.

 

[BondraTime]

Two words, Patrik Stefan.

Was nowhere near as highly touted as Daigle. He just so happened to be the #1 pick in the worst draft in history (Sedins aside).

 

[danielpalfredsson]

A guy drafted at #11 that becomes a regular NHL player is not a bust in my books. If he becomes a 2nd line center ~55 pts is a solid projection and a therefore was a great pick.

To clear this up, I am not saying that my opinion is that he is a dangerous prospect. I am relaying what I've heard said or written from more than one person. People are sort of running in a different direction with what I was posting, the point is that enough teams in a realistic position to consider taking him saw him as a dangerous boom/bust prospect who they didn't want to have to risk making the choice on. They didn't want to be the one to take a risk on him and potentially look bad if he busts. So we can get into "oh I'd be happy if he has 45 points" or whatever, but the definition of a bust I would say would be a guy who is a waste of a pick at 11 compared to the other guys Ottawa could have realistically taken that were ranked around that pick.

From the post draft Marek VS Wyshynski podcast (from 14:20)...
http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect...-June-25th-Edition-of-Marek-vs.-Wyshynski.mp3

A lot of teams were scared off. That was the one where I would talk to teams, the one player, because I would always ask which player scares you more than anything else. The one player you wouldn't want to make the choice on. The one player was Logan Brown because the potential for absolute superstar was there. But you look at the first half of the season and you say 'what if we get that guy'.....so with that you want another team to make that decision for you....there were two teams I talked to in the top 10 who said 'we hope we don't have to make that decision on Logan Brown....there were a few who were really scared to make the decision on Logan Brown....I think he'll be an excellent centreman.

I think he's a lot safer of a pick (McLeaod) than Logan Brown is. Logan Brown's upside could be gigantic. You could look at Ottawa and say oh wow how did you get Brown at 11 but you could also look at it and be like wow you threw 11 away on Logan Brown. Because we've seen it in the first half of this year with Logan Brown. You hope that he's turned the corner, he's working out more, they got him, because he always stayed away from the gym.....

All I'm saying is that when this sort of analysis is out there, I am very happy with the Brown pick, because outside of the Senators getting really lucky in the new draft lottery format, they aren't going to draft top 3 anytime soon, and they haven't drafted that high since trading for Spezza's pick 15 years ago. So taking a gamble at an elite player is a good move. At the same time, I'd be open to the idea that Brown could possibly not work out, and I wouldn't put myself as a fan in a position to be absolutely flabbergasted if he never becomes the franchise C this team needs.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Brown just fell down

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Notes from the first:

Game notes:

Chabot is incredibly calm. So slick at blueline, both at keeping the play going and slowing down the American attack. ~6:20, deftly broke up an offensive attack and sent it the other way. At ~4:35, right at the start of a PP, he bobbled a pass along the blueline and let the puck out. He was clearly thinking shot but it skipped over his stick. Played the first 1:25 of the power play and had some nice in-zone movement, including a quick and lowshot that went just wide. Got a 2 minute boarding call as he shut down a SH chance, somewhat questionable but not a brutal call. Even though it was a penalty, I liked the show of physicality. Unfortunately, US scored just after Chabot left the box.

Brown, ~13:45, levels Lawson Crouse in the neutral zone. Has a nice thought trying to get it to the front, but pass is picked off. ~7:15, he played the body on a Canadian fwd (#26???) below his own goal-line - turned the puck over and moved it to his DMan. To this point he hasn’t played much, but every time I’ve noticed him it’s been a good look. Earlier this play, I actually saw him lagging behind the play a bit on the back check, but evidently he got back in time to still make a good play, and he must have hustled back. 0:50 of first, Brown offered Braco a nice trailer into the zone but their line mate went offside. Been fine but doesn't seem like he's one of their go-to guys.

I really like how Bean plays. Moves the puck super well and calmly. Haven’t noticed him much defensively, but he looks like he should be a solid offensive weapon from the blueline.

Tyler Parsons was incredibly poised. Very athletic, but doesn’t move around a lot in net. Really solid, looks like a real winner. Not excited to meet him in the big tourney.

 

[MaxTheLimit]

~7:15, he played the body on a Canadian fwd (#26???) below his own goal-line - turned the puck over and moved it to his DMan.

I believe #26 is Nicolas Roy for team Canada.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Notes from the first:

Game notes:

Chabot is incredibly calm. So slick at blueline, both at keeping the play going and slowing down the American attack. ~6:20, deftly broke up an offensive attack and sent it the other way. At ~4:35, right at the start of a PP, he bobbled a pass along the blueline and let the puck out. He was clearly thinking shot but it skipped over his stick. Played the first 1:25 of the power play and had some nice in-zone movement, including a quick and lowshot that went just wide. Got a 2 minute boarding call as he shut down a SH chance, somewhat questionable but not a brutal call. Even though it was a penalty, I liked the show of physicality. Unfortunately, US scored just after Chabot left the box.

Brown, ~13:45, levels Lawson Crouse in the neutral zone. Has a nice thought trying to get it to the front, but pass is picked off. ~7:15, he played the body on a Canadian fwd (#26???) below his own goal-line - turned the puck over and moved it to his DMan. To this point he hasn’t played much, but every time I’ve noticed him it’s been a good look. Earlier this play, I actually saw him lagging behind the play a bit on the back check, but evidently he got back in time to still make a good play, and he must have hustled back. 0:50 of first, Brown offered Braco a nice trailer into the zone but their line mate went offside. Been fine but doesn't seem like he's one of their go-to guys.

I really like how Bean plays. Moves the puck super well and calmly. Haven’t noticed him much defensively, but he looks like he should be a solid offensive weapon from the blueline.

Tyler Parsons was incredibly poised. Very athletic, but doesn’t move around a lot in net. Really solid, looks like a real winner. Not excited to meet him in the big tourney.

Good stuff. For Brown to take out Crouse (even though he was taken out again by McVoy later) shows the kid is getting some strength, or at least is learning how to use his frame.

Chabot is silky smooth.....almost too smooth. He has that kind of vibe you get with the Spezzas, Thorntons, Bouwmeesters, etc...guys who are so smooth, you wonder if they're really trying. Icewater in the veins for sure.....but also sometimes looks bad when the team overall isn't playing well.

What I'd like to see from Chabot...keep the icewater in his veins while he has the puck, but show a bit more urgency in his game without it.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

I believe #26 is Nicolas Roy for team Canada.

That's right. I didn't write the name down at the time, and when I went to look it up I couldn't find it. Was definitely Roy though.

Good stuff. For Brown to take out Crouse (even though he was taken out again by McVoy later) shows the kid is getting some strength, or at least is learning how to use his frame.

Chabot is silky smooth.....almost too smooth. He has that kind of vibe you get with the Spezzas, Thorntons, Bouwmeesters, etc...guys who are so smooth, you wonder if they're really trying. Icewater in the veins for sure.....but also sometimes looks bad when the team overall isn't playing well.

What I'd like to see from Chabot...keep the icewater in his veins while he has the puck, but show a bit more urgency in his game without it.

Yeah, and I didn't mention in my post that Brown got knocked a few times. It seemed like guys were really throwing their bodies at him, which is no surprise given his build. Once he gains muscle, I think he will be very hard to knock off the puck.

Agreed on Chabot to an extent. The guy he reminds me of though is Brian Campbell, a guy who (especially later in his career) has been a total "ice-water" kind of guy. He's a very cerebral guy, but, like Karlsson, his defense is largely based around stickwork and skating. He made a "Phillips Point" at one point in the 1st - the shorthanded chance against where he took a boarding penalty after riding the guy out. Unlike Phillips, who thought the game at a high level but, late in his career, seriously lacked the mobility to capitalize on that vision, Chabot seems like a guy who is very organized in most defensive scenarios. A very good quality to have, but I don't know if his reliance on that aspect of his game will ever allow for him to defend "aggressively".

 

[Samsquanch]

Yeah, and I didn't mention in my post that Brown got knocked a few times. It seemed like guys were really throwing their bodies at him, which is no surprise given his build. Once he gains muscle, I think he will be very hard to knock off the puck.

Agreed that its not suprising that guys are somewhat targeting Brown.

I remember during my last few years of high school hockey that there were A LOT of bean pole type guys who played, and they were the #1 targets for the 6'0 200lbs guys like I was.

The players are very aware that guys like Brown are still awkward, and waaaay easier to hit than the 5'6 little humming birds that buzz around the ice.

In the end it's guys like Brown who take the most punishment. It's up to him to get heavier, stronger, quicker, and mean enough to dissuade guys from thinking that he's just a giant target.

 

[aragorn]

Okay. Well. A dissapointment is a bust. By definition no?

Daigle was. A bust. Because he was a huge dissapointment. Stefan. Massive dissapointment. Therefore bust. If you expect someone to be a first liner. And they become a third liner. That's a huge dissapointment. A bust.

Wasn't Daigle's problem the fact that he lost his desire to play the game? I remember something along the lines of him playing in the NHL being his father's dream, not his. He did have a couple of 50 pt seasons something we all wish Lazar could do & may yet someday do but Daigle did it in his first yr. I think he had the skill but lacked the desire to play anymore until it was too late. He was a disappointment that basically caused his own downfall after signing a lucrative deal.

Doug Wickenheiser was also a guy who could go down as the biggest bust in NHL history considering he was drafted by Montreal 1st overall when they could have drafted Denis Savard & Wickenheiser never amounted to anything. Stephan I would say might be second to that but I imagine there have been many others.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Top 25 OHL Prospects.

Look at that Logan Brown

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/08/top-25-ohl-prospects-summer-of-2016.html

A first for the blog (although likely to now become a tradition), this is a list of the top prospects who played in the OHL during the 2015/2016 season. It seems only natural to do this list following the conclusion of my annual '30 teams in 30 days' prospect reviews. I'm going to cap it as a Top 25, with some honorable mentions. Check the link for write ups. If you want to read more about these guys, simply click on their NHL in brackets and you'll be taken to the team's '30 in 30" from this summer and you'll get a detailed write up on their skill set and progression.

1. Mitch Marner
2. Dylan Strome
3. Matt Tkachuk
4. Christian Dvorak
5. Pavel Zacha
6. Alex Nylander
7. Logan Brown
8. Jakob Chychrun
9. Olli Juolevi
10. Mikhail Sergachev
11. Travis Konecny
12. Michael Dal Colle
13. Lawson Crouse
14. Christian Fischer
15. Michael McLeod
16. Mike Amadio
17. Josh Ho-Sang
18. Zach Senyshyn
19. Mackenzie Blackwood
20. Alex Nedeljkovic
21. Travis Dermott
22. Max Jones
23. Vince Dunn
24. Andrew Mangiapane
25. Brendan Lemieux

For the HM's, check the link.

 

[Micklebot]

Top 25 OHL Prospects.

Look at that Logan Brown

I mentioned this in the original thread, but odd to see Chychrun ahead of Juolevi and Sergachev.

In fact, it's kinda odd that Brown, an all season riser is so high, while Chychrun, an all season faller maintained his high stock.

 

[BondraTime]

I mentioned this in the original thread, but odd to see Chychrun ahead of Juolevi and Sergachev.

In fact, it's kinda odd that Brown, an all season riser is so high, while Chychrun, an all season faller maintained his high stock.

Not really, this is one person's list.

We could say the same about Mckeggs list where he had Mcleod 3rd overall in December. It is a personal scouts list and will be much different than a majority list.

I'm very happy we got Brown and very happy we stayed away from Chychrun.

It would be odd if it were a list comprised by 10 different OHL scouts, but I wouldn't consider it strange seeing it's from one person's list.

"Have to stick by Chychrun at this point, given how highly I rated him previous to the NHL Draft"

That quote basically shows why he's rated so high.

 

[Micklebot]

Not really, this is one person's list.

We could say the same about Mckeggs list where he had Macleod 3rd overall in December. It is a personal scouts list and will be much different than a majority list.

I'm very happy we got Brown and very happy we stayed away from Chychrun.

It would be odd if it were a list comprised by 10 different OHL scouts, but I wouldn't consider it strange seeing it's from one person's list.

"Have to stick by Chychrun at this point, given how highly I rated him previous to the NHL Draft"

That quote basically shows why he's rated so high.

Agree about the point wrt it being one person's list. As for the bold, that just tells me that he was one of those that believed Chychrun was a guy who's stock was falling all year. Doesn't tell me why he didn't think his stock was falling prior to the draft though. I do stand by my position that it's unusual to see, even just a single scout, with Chychrun ahead of the others, in that it's no longer a common opinion, that's all I really meant, not that it was indefensible.

Sadly, the link doesn't work for me right now, so I wasn't aware whether or not it was just a single person's list nor was I able to look at the individual write ups. I'll have to look more in depth later.

 

[MaxTheLimit]

By that list, Brown is #3 from the draft year. That's pretty good. Only Tkachuk and Nylander ahead of him. Brown didn't really have playing time with another 1st rounder this past year. He did have Christian Fischer, who was a very high 2nd rounder to play with.

Bit of a telltale year for Tkachuk and Nylander as they MAY be losing Marner and McLeod. I bet they still do well, but do they build upon their previous stats?

 

[Micklebot]

By that list, Brown is #3 from the draft year. That's pretty good. Only Tkachuk and Nylander ahead of him. Brown didn't really have playing time with another 1st rounder this past year. He did have Christian Fischer, who was a very high 2nd rounder to play with.

Bit of a telltale year for Tkachuk and Nylander as they MAY be losing Marner and McLeod. I bet they still do well, but do they build upon their previous stats?

Pretty sure he played with Brendan Lemieux (after the trade) and that's when his game turned around.

 

[MaxTheLimit]

I think you are correct. The point stands that he didn't have another high 1st round pick to play with. May bode well for his performance this year.

 

[armani]

Puemped.

http://www.ottawasun.com/2016/08/10/senators-forward-matt-puempel-shooting-for-full-time-nhl-gig