SEMIN: Unjust victim of a systematic process of intimidation, manipulation, and scape

[Blueline Bomber]

I'm probably the biggest Semin apologist on HFBoards, but I ran out of excuses for him a while ago now.

The problem here is that leaving him in the press box won't help Sasha to get his **** together.

While that's true, putting him in games hasn't helped him get his **** together either. Which leaves Peters in a difficult situation.

 

[AD Skinner]

It's not like Semin was ever fast. Even in Washington he wasn't exactly a speed demon.

At this point I don't see any benefit toward scratching Semin if he's truly healthy. If they truly want rid of him, no one is going to trade for a 7 million dollar contract that the terrible Carolina hurricanes won't even play.

 

[What the Faulk]

While that's true, putting him in games hasn't helped him get his **** together either. Which leaves Peters in a difficult situation.

You phrase that like he's actively trying to sabotage the game every time he's on the ice. He hasn't been good, but holy **** the exaggeration lately has spiraled out of control.

EDIT: That was referring to almost everyone who #StandsWithBill, not just you BB. We need a name for them. How about Anti Seminites?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

It's not like Semin was ever fast. Even in Washington he wasn't exactly a speed demon.

At this point I don't see any benefit toward scratching Semin if he's truly healthy. If they truly want rid of him, no one is going to trade for a 7 million dollar contract that the terrible Carolina hurricanes won't even play.

He was pretty fast when he wanted to. Semin has a beautiful technique. He's no Pavel Bure, but he has turned the corner on multiple defensemen in the past.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't agree with bringing up the team's record under this coach as some sort of measuring stick for the coach at this juncture. Yeah, I get that in the end, that's how coaches are measured, but I'm not going to cast judgement (good or bad) on Peters at this point, probably won't for a couple of seasons TBH and certainly not after 19 games. Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with criticizing or praising individual things he does (ie...if you don't like the line jumbling, how he's handling Semin, etc...), but IMO, the final grade won't be for a season or two. I will bring up a few things to consider though.

First, for years many on this board have screamed about accountability and it now appears that the Canes have a coach that is holding guys accountable. Not specifically on results, but on the process (e.g...I want the team to play a certain way and if you don't, then there will be repercussions). Yeah, it sucks that it's being applied to some board darlings (Semin and to a lesser extent Skinner), but it is what it is. Obviously, a coach can only do this so much before a team tunes him out, so that has to be watched, and assessed over time.

Second, plain and simple, this team is not constructed in a manner to compete with the better teams in the league. They are small, soft, lack talent and have a defense, beyond the top two is downright terrible. Even if you had an in prime Scotty Bowman (who butted heads with his star player in Detroit BTW before said player changed his game), this team still likely won't make the playoffs unless pretty much every player had a career year and there weren't many injuries.

Third, Maybe, just maybe, Francis and Peters are in this for the long haul. Meaning, "Yeah, we could probably sneak out a few more wins in the short term if we did things differently, but we want a team to play a certain way in order to be competitive long term, and over time, we'll build an identity and we'll be adding players that can play that way." Meaning they might feel the PROCESS is as important, if not MORE important than the results in the short term.

This is basically the same line-up (- Jordan Staal) that finished with the #7 pick last year and I expected no better this year. I'm sick of bad / mediocre teams. I'm by no means saying "tank" as I want them to win. More importantly, I want to see a plan, vision and team built (draft/develop/acquire) for the long haul.

Are Peters and Francis the right guys for the job? Only time will tell but it is abundantly clear, that what the team has been doing for the past 5 years wasn't working.

 

[What the Faulk]

The reason I brought up Peters' record, which is now worse, was to highlight the absurdity of judging by such a small sample size. And let me remind everyone that Peters wanted to make Semin a healthy scratch even earlier than he did, but couldn't, because injuries. Yes, I realize he did actually do it to Hainsey in Game 2, and I didn't like that it either. Has Hainsey played better? Not really. He's still been very up and down, and has only in the last few not had terrible games.

Semin not "buying into the system" is the latest buzz phrase. I completely agree that he's hesitating and not playing well, but even so he's still an effective player and still a better choice at the moment than pretty much everyone one this roster not named Staal, Skinner, Tlusty, Lindholm and even Nash (shockingly, I know). That goes for Gerbe, who hasn't scored since the season opener and has just 6 assists, Rask, whose ice-time is dwindling, Boychuk, Terry, McClement, Dwyer, and the other guy.

 

[Novacane]

You phrase that like he's actively trying to sabotage the game every time he's on the ice. He hasn't been good, but holy **** the exaggeration lately has spiraled out of control.

EDIT: That was referring to almost everyone who #StandsWithBill, not just you BB. We need a name for them. How about Anti Seminites?

How about "people without blinders on who want to give the coach a chance before putting his head on a spike because he scratched our favorite player"?

 

[What the Faulk]

I don't think that's catchy enough.

And Semin is not my favorite player. I'm not sure he'd be in the top 3 actually.

But right. *I* have blinders because I don't necessarily agree with every single thing a losing coach has been saying or doing.

Some of you are so brand loyal Darren Rovell would be proud.

 

[Novacane]

I don't think that's catchy enough.

And Semin is not my favorite player. I'm not sure he'd be in the top 3 actually.

But right. *I* have blinders because I don't necessarily agree with every single thing a losing coach has been saying or doing.

Some of you are so brand loyal Darren Rovell would be proud.

You're too good.

 

[What the Faulk]

In all seriousness, I do think Peters has been guilty of over-coaching, and not just in regards to Semin or benchings. He's changed up lines every few periods and hasn't let his team really get into any sort of rhythm. Part of that is because he's a new coach and another part is because they dug themselves a hole early. But they have played well as a group lately, the finish has just been inconsistent. That's going to happen with a young team (IIRC they're like the 10th youngest) but the lack of chemistry can also lead to things being just a step off.

Roll this for the next 3-5 games or so and see what happens

Tlusty // Staal // Lindholm
Skinner // Nash // Semin
Gerbe // Rask // Nestrasil
Boychuk // Mcclement // Dwyer

 

[Novacane]

In all seriousness, I do think Peters has been guilty of over-coaching, and not just in regards to Semin or benchings. He's changed up lines every few periods and hasn't let his team really get into any sort of rhythm. Part of that is because he's a new coach and another part is because they dug themselves a hole early. But they have played well as a group lately, the finish has just been inconsistent. That's going to happen with a young team (IIRC they're like the 10th youngest) but the lack of chemistry can also lead to things being just a step off.

Roll this for the next 3-5 games or so and see what happens

Tlusty // Staal // Lindholm
Skinner // Nash // Semin
Gerbe // Rask // Nestrasil
Boychuk // Mcclement // Dwyer

I agree. That's one part of his coaching that I'm not liking so far. I know he wants to send a message of accountability and wants to have everyone buy in. Good, they need it. But changing the lines every period because someone may have missed an assignment isn't helping things. The thing I don't understand is why he doesn't really do this with the defense. Maybe because he realizes splitting up Faulk and Sekera would do more harm than good.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The thing is, I like most of the lines after the switch better than the lines coming in. Can we just get him to pick good lines at the start? I feel like Gerbe - Nash - Dwyer was broken up before they got five shifts together (thank goodness) but why come in to the game with lines like that in the first place?


That's been my issue. I like when I ask for lines the game before in the GDT and those were our lines the next day. Those were good, I want to keep those. But Staal is clicking with Lindholm right now so I'd be OK with keeping that group together too.

 

[dammit100]

The reason I brought up Peters' record, which is now worse, was to highlight the absurdity of judging by such a small sample size. And let me remind everyone that Peters wanted to make Semin a healthy scratch even earlier than he did, but couldn't, because injuries. Yes, I realize he did actually do it to Hainsey in Game 2, and I didn't like that it either. Has Hainsey played better? Not really. He's still been very up and down, and has only in the last few not had terrible games.

Semin not "buying into the system" is the latest buzz phrase. I completely agree that he's hesitating and not playing well, but even so he's still an effective player and still a better choice at the moment than pretty much everyone one this roster not named Staal, Skinner, Tlusty, Lindholm and even Nash (shockingly, I know). That goes for Gerbe, who hasn't scored since the season opener and has just 6 assists, Rask, whose ice-time is dwindling, Boychuk, Terry, McClement, Dwyer, and the other guy.

If we're judging Semin by his career, then I'd say yes, he's a better option than Gerbe, Rask, etc... but if we're judging by this season, I can't get behind that. I'm not anti-Semin. I want him to be the dynamic playmaker and elite goal scorer that he's proven he can be.

You say Gerbe has "just 6" assists, but that's one more than Semin. And Gerbe hasn't scored since opening night? Great, that's also one more goal than Semin. Also, Gerbe leads the shots on goal contest between the 2 by THIRTY. I know +/- is fun to laugh at, but I still think there's merit in comparing players on the same team by that stat, especially when Gerbe is +2 and Semin is -7.

Boychuk has 3 goals, Terry has 4, Dwyer (who I'm only a fan of in a 3rd/4th line & PK role) has A goal, and hell, Jay McClement has put as many pucks on net as Semin this year.

 

[dammit100]

Again, if we're judging by this season only, Peters' team is on pace for 68 points. Thats...not good. He doesn't exactly get the benefit of the doubt yet. Also, assuming Semin plays 70+ games, do we really think he'll fail to score 20 goals? He's already on pace for 30 assists. 50 points isn't great for what he makes but it isn't nothing. Name a player, and you can find a stretch where they went 15 games without a goal, probably within the last two seasons. The good goalsorers (of which Semin assuredly is) still end up with fine totals.

I wanted to see about the goal droughts for players comparable to Semin, so from the list on capgeek, I pulled the following names and searched for their longest goal droughts in the last 2 full seasons (excluded playoffs because not everyone participated in the postseason):

Rick Nash: 7
Taylor Hall: 7
Henrik Zetterberg: 11
Patrick Kane: 11
Marian Hossa: 9 (this season)
Patrick Sharp: 10
Jonathan Toews: 7
Thomas Vanek: 9 (this season)
Jeff Skinner: 9

 

[What the Faulk]

I mean it's not perfect, but the point was that droughts just happen. Jamie Benn went 11 this year. In 2008-09 Staal had 4 in 20 but 3 of those came in one game. He ended with 40. Last year Skinner had a 2 in 18 stretch and ended with 33. We forget about them because at the end of the day, they put up good totals. Assuming he doesn't get run out of town and plays 70+, I'd be kinda surprised if Semin didn't hit 20, and as I said, he's already on pace for 30 assists. 50 points is low for what he makes, but not unreasonable.

 

[dammit100]

Goal droughts are understandable, but for players of his talent level, seeing those droughts reach double digits isn't all that common. What's most surprising to me is how few shots Semin is getting on net during this streak. He's averaged 3.07 SPG during his time in Raleigh, but is just over 1 per game this season.

Jamie Benn had 40 shots during his 11 game goal drought this season. Shots aren't everything, but it's even tougher to break out of a slump by NOT shooting.

 

[rocky7]

The thing I don't understand is why he doesn't really do this with the defense. Maybe because he realizes splitting up Faulk and Sekera would do more harm than good.

he has split up Faulk and Sekera some but it should be obvious from his use of Gleason and Harrison that he likes the "tough, gritty", whatever aspects he thinks they bring.

 

[rocky7]

Goal droughts are understandable, but for players of his talent level, seeing those droughts reach double digits isn't all that common. What's most surprising to me is how few shots Semin is getting on net during this streak. He's averaged 3.07 SPG during his time in Raleigh, but is just over 1 per game this season.

Jamie Benn had 40 shots during his 11 game goal drought this season. Shots aren't everything, but it's even tougher to break out of a slump by NOT shooting.

again, I don't know what the problem is but all the things that he hasn't been doing requires healthy wrists. shooting, passing, stick handling. I don't think many get how much hockey players use their wrists for everything (grab a broom if you don't have a stick and try to do anything. pretty tough). idk, not trying to find excuses, just explainations.

that said though, I'm of the opinion that even if Semin was playing well, he isn't a "Peters kind of guy" and they are running him out of town as soon as possible.

 

[What the Faulk]

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2013/11/8/5080430/claude-giroux-drought-evgeni-malkin-nhl-goal-scoring

^ mandatory reading on inconsistency and big name players.

As for your second paragraph, I agree. Not only are SOGs down, total attempts taken by Semin (per game) are down 79 percent from last year which is down 3 percent from the year before that.

At the same time, on-ice attempts are pretty much in line with his career:

In other words, he's shooting less, way less, but he's not the roadblock that everyone makes him out to be.

(Side note, corsi relative here is compared against Semin's history, not how he stacked up against his teammates in a given year)

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The thing is, if Semin had an injured wrist, they'd simply say so and put him on IR. It's better for Semin and the team to play it off that way. It doesn't give the same negative connotation that a "healthy scratch" does. Francis and Peters have been in the game long enough to know this.

So I don't think he's injured. I do agree he's got an issue with his wrist, but I think it's more of a mental thing than a physical one.

 

[dammit100]

so when you say psychosomatic, you mean like he could start fire with his thoughts?

 

[DaveG]

so when you say psychosomatic, you mean like he could start fire with his thoughts?

I think it just means he can breathe the pressure.

Or am I just thinking of Prodigy lyrics again?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Semin not "buying into the system" is the latest buzz phrase. I completely agree that he's hesitating and not playing well, but even so he's still an effective player and still a better choice at the moment than pretty much everyone one this roster not named Staal, Skinner, Tlusty, Lindholm and even Nash (shockingly, I know). That goes for Gerbe, who hasn't scored since the season opener and has just 6 assists, Rask, whose ice-time is dwindling, Boychuk, Terry, McClement, Dwyer, and the other guy.

If a player either refuses, or is unable to play the system the coach is requesting (referencing the not buying into the system comment) or do what the coaches ask, then by all means bench him, even if he is a "more effective player" than other options. I'd be more pissed with a coach that didn't bench him. Allowing 1 player to do his own thing simply because he is "more effective" than others is a sure way to allow the inmates run the asylum and eventually leading to players and coaches not being on the same page.

In the end, Peters and his system may be wrong and ineffective, only time will tell, but in the meantime, it's up to the players to all row in the same direction. If that direction leads them over a waterfall, it's on the coach. Again, this is speculation assuming that there is any credibility to the "not buying into the system" statement. I suspect here is some validity to it though, based on Forslund's comments yesterday (lack of focus, not playing the system) and even earlier in the year when Peters said they've asked Semin a number of times and aren't getting through to him.

Honestly, if all that is true, and not some sort of misdirection by the organization, what other options does a coach have? Let a player ignore what you are telling him and still play him? I really hope this gets sorted out because the Canes NEED guys with Semin's skill and ability. The team would be much better with Semin on the same page as everyone else.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

so when you say psychosomatic, you mean like he could start fire with his thoughts?

 

[The Stranger]

In other words, he's shooting less, way less, but he's not the roadblock that everyone makes him out to be.

46% of his 5v5 shot attempts have been blocked this year...this is worst on the team which averages 26%.

His career average in this category is 28% and his worst year full year is 31%.

So, what would you attribute this to?